***Official*** 2010 Stock Market Thread

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Sep 29, 2004
18,665
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Heck, if anyone is interested, consider JNJ 2010 leaps at the 90 strike. It's gambling but with one heck of a risk/reward ratio. Of course, this is only of interest to value investors that understand what JNJ is actually worth.
 

HopJokey

Platinum Member
May 6, 2005
2,110
0
0
Heck, if anyone is interested, consider JNJ 2010 leaps at the 90 strike. It's gambling but with one heck of a risk/reward ratio. Of course, this is only of interest to value investors that understand what JNJ is actually worth.

I'll check that out as well.
 

Regs

Lifer
Aug 9, 2002
16,665
21
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hey big players, I need a little help here.

How the hell should I play CTIC? FDA approval of CTI's NDA is still a little while away, but the FDA just completed a drug manufacturer facility approval, something they had scheduled a while back.

The stock jumped quite a bit today, and I've been itching to get back into this stock after I dumped it following the previous major crash. I figure this stock is going to continue being an epic rollercoaster until the FDA decision, but determining the best entry and exit points with such a volatile stock is impossible with my little experience.

This has been one of my favorite stocks to follow because there is a ton of potential, and I want to jump in early but not if it's at a temporary peak.

I mean, it's good news this morning, but to me doesn't hint at all about the FDAs intentions, not when they previously voiced some serious concerns just a few weeks back.

I see only two options:

A. Hold out just before FDA hits the fan when stock is usually at its higest
B. Roll the dice and hope for good news.

Everything else inbetween is speculation.
 

SandEagle

Lifer
Aug 4, 2007
16,813
13
0
hey big players, I need a little help here.

How the hell should I play CTIC? FDA approval of CTI's NDA is still a little while away, but the FDA just completed a drug manufacturer facility approval, something they had scheduled a while back.

The stock jumped quite a bit today, and I've been itching to get back into this stock after I dumped it following the previous major crash. I figure this stock is going to continue being an epic rollercoaster until the FDA decision, but determining the best entry and exit points with such a volatile stock is impossible with my little experience.

This has been one of my favorite stocks to follow because there is a ton of potential, and I want to jump in early but not if it's at a temporary peak.

I mean, it's good news this morning, but to me doesn't hint at all about the FDAs intentions, not when they previously voiced some serious concerns just a few weeks back.

i'm kicking myself for not picking up 20k shares last week when it hit .59. i've been with ctic for over a year.....since .07........i have a good feeling that pix will get approved next month, with product sales by end of year.

atm, it's too high to jump in....i'm hoping it scales back 20-25% over the next few weeks with no news.
 

HopJokey

Platinum Member
May 6, 2005
2,110
0
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i'm kicking myself for not picking up 20k shares last week when it hit .59. i've been with ctic for over a year.....since .07........i have a good feeling that pix will get approved next month, with product sales by end of year.

atm, it's too high to jump in....i'm hoping it scales back 20-25% over the next few weeks with no news.

What's been the cause of the recent run up? Anything significant or just noise?
 

iversonyin

Diamond Member
Aug 12, 2004
3,303
0
76
Heck, if anyone is interested, consider JNJ 2010 leaps at the 90 strike. It's gambling but with one heck of a risk/reward ratio. Of course, this is only of interest to value investors that understand what JNJ is actually worth.

So what make you think the price will move to 90 by then? Where's the hidden "value" in JNJ?
 
Sep 29, 2004
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So what make you think the price will move to 90 by then? Where's the hidden "value" in JNJ?

Nothing hidden. It's right on the financial statements. Total Equity and Free Cash Flow. (Hinting at Discounted Cash Flow valuation here) It's already worth north of $90. I just hope it corrects in 2 years when it could take twice as long. Oh, Free Cash Flow and total equity should also go up over the next few years. I guess that can be thought of as a catalyst.

The implied volatility on JNJ options is low making the Jan 2010s at the 90 strike cheap. Much cheaper than a similar story in Proctor (PG).

The options I was referring to go for about 25 cents right now. I paid something like 19 or 20 cents. JNJ is at around $64. It needs to nearly double but in time, price will follow value. Heck, even more volatility in JNJ share price will move the option pricing up.
 

Jassi

Diamond Member
Sep 8, 2004
3,296
0
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Nothing hidden. It's right on the financial statements. Total Equity and Free Cash Flow. (Hinting at Discounted Cash Flow valuation here) It's already worth north of $90. I just hope it corrects in 2 years when it could take twice as long. Oh, Free Cash Flow and total equity should also go up over the next few years. I guess that can be thought of as a catalyst.

The implied volatility on JNJ options is low making the Jan 2010s at the 90 strike cheap. Much cheaper than a similar story in Proctor (PG).

The options I was referring to go for about 25 cents right now. I paid something like 19 or 20 cents. JNJ is at around $64. It needs to nearly double but in time, price will follow value. Heck, even more volatility in JNJ share price will move the option pricing up.

I can confidently say that Jan 2010 90 Strike options are worthless. Also, I'm a bit skeptical that JNJ will an 8+ year high in the next couple of years (and have a market cap of $250 Billion, assuming the float stays the same). Especially, it the economy and the markets move sideways for the foreseeable future.
 

HopJokey

Platinum Member
May 6, 2005
2,110
0
0
GNVC just hit 52 week high!

Bah, I don't know what I should do....

Why though? Does someone know something? Or is it "pump and dump"?

I like the prospects of the company a lot (good promising pipeline, great balance sheet for a baby bio) and will stay long.
 
Sep 29, 2004
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I can confidently say that Jan 2010 90 Strike options are worthless. Also, I'm a bit skeptical that JNJ will an 8+ year high in the next couple of years (and have a market cap of $250 Billion, assuming the float stays the same). Especially, it the economy and the markets move sideways for the foreseeable future.

Oh noooossss. I totally screwed up this thread of discussion. Not sure why I typed 2010. I meant 2012. Ya, those jan 2010s are indeed worthless.

I meant that the idea of picking up the 2012 Jan 90s for 20-25 cents is not a bad idea. I won't get into a fuill blown DCF, but JNJ's FCF is at $14 billion and total equity is $50 billion. If you give FCF a 15 multiple and add on that $50 billion you are at an IV of $195B + $50B ot $245B. There are 2.7 billion shares. That puts JNJ at about $90/share today. In 2 years time, it should be worth more. The 15 multiple might be slightly aggressive but JNJ is still worth $85/share today.

I always assume that it takes 5 years for a correction to occur to IV (in 5 years JNJ might have FCF of $18 billion) so this 2 year horizon on the LEAPS is a gamble in my opnion. A ??% chance of winning though. I figure that there is a much more greater chance than 10% of winning 10 times more money. Long JNJ, JNJ calls and that net net I mentioned earlier.
 
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SunnyD

Belgian Waffler
Jan 2, 2001
32,674
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www.neftastic.com
GNVC just hit 52 week high!

Bah, I don't know what I should do....
I've officially doubled my investment on GNVC as of today... or maybe yesterday. Guess I'll ride it out even more. It'd be nice if I can pull a Ford and quadruple my investment...
 

endervalentine

Senior member
Jan 30, 2009
700
0
0
I've officially doubled my investment on GNVC as of today... or maybe yesterday. Guess I'll ride it out even more. It'd be nice if I can pull a Ford and quadruple my investment...

bah! looks like I pulled out on GNVC a little too early ohwells. congrats to those that are sticking around!
 

Regs

Lifer
Aug 9, 2002
16,665
21
81
Why though? Does someone know something? Or is it "pump and dump"?

I like the prospects of the company a lot (good promising pipeline, great balance sheet for a baby bio) and will stay long.


No, if someone did know something this stock would of been at 5+ by now. There are just a lot of people holding before the news hits in the next few weeks. So fewer sellers means the price of the stock increases. I got a feeling it will pull back some when they discuss their earnings this Friday. Not unless they add some good news to the earnings statement but GNVC's management are usually quite until the science is proven.
 

Regs

Lifer
Aug 9, 2002
16,665
21
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Hedge funds are selling GNVC in 100k chunks. A lot of them are reaching 50-100% gains around the 3.25 mark and are taking educated guesses that the stock will lower come Friday. They will have to re-buy sooner or later so don't worry. Just worry about if there will be bad earnings report on Friday.
 

Jassi

Diamond Member
Sep 8, 2004
3,296
0
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How bad could it be? Its a research phase biotech company. Aren't they supposed to bleed slowly until their product is approved?

I guess what I'm asking is, how could a bad/ worse case scenario play out?

Hedge funds are selling GNVC in 100k chunks. A lot of them are reaching 50-100% gains around the 3.25 mark and are taking educated guesses that the stock will lower come Friday. They will have to re-buy sooner or later so don't worry. Just worry about if there will be bad earnings report on Friday.
 

HopJokey

Platinum Member
May 6, 2005
2,110
0
0
How bad could it be? Its a research phase biotech company. Aren't they supposed to bleed slowly until their product is approved?

I guess what I'm asking is, how could a bad/ worse case scenario play out?

Not the earnings data itself, but from the CC where information if any is gleaned.
 
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