That's the risk in bio plays. Everyone is trying to find the new DNDN.
The reality is, for every DNDN fairytale, there's 1,000 other ambitious bio-companies that will fail.
That's the risk in bio plays. Everyone is trying to find the new DNDN.
The reality is, for every DNDN fairytale, there's 1,000 other ambitious bio-companies that will fail.
Looks like DNDN will cover that second gap jump and trend closer to it's max pain. I have a couple buy orders set up at different price points (roughly at $47, $48.50 and $50).
Do you think DNDN will need to create a secondary, increasing the amount of shares?
It's a possibility, and something that was brought up by David Miller (I assume you listened to the Q&A session to be asking that?).
Keep in mind, most drugs have partners. A small company being held by a bigger company to help (and profit) its way through to the market.
DNDN has done this thing alone without any help, and without a ROW (round the world) partner.
I could see them offering a secondary to secure long-term financing until Provenge hits peak sales.
It's a possibility, and something that was brought up by David Miller (I assume you listened to the Q&A session to be asking that?).
Keep in mind, most drugs have partners. A small company being held by a bigger company to help (and profit) its way through to the market.
DNDN has done this thing alone without any help, and without a ROW (round the world) partner.
I could see them offering a secondary to secure long-term financing until Provenge hits peak sales.
Re: ITMN, how often does an advisory board approve 9-3 only for it to ultimately reject it?
That also happenned with Dendreon's Provenge, so its not necessarily the end of the world but could mean a two or more year delay. What is extremely sad is the night before DNDN stock plummeted from this announcement, I had about $40,000 worth of it short around $17.75.
I was at the tire shop buying some new wheels and in the after hours I lost my guts to hold it short overnight (at the time I wasnt trading options and could have just had some calls for protection if it exploded upwards). I locked in a tidy $500 profit around 6:30pm and thought "sweet, I just paid for my tires".
The next day the bad news broke and I was pissed when I realized I could have covered around $6 for a $25,000 profit - enough to buy a brand new car. :'(
Wow...well, at least it wasn't the other way around.
Geez it took DNDN two years to recover...HOW similar is the situation between DNDN and ITMN?
I have a couple buy orders set up at different price points (roughly at $47, $48.50 and $50).
Bought shares of ITMN in the $10's - the ITMN story isn't as strong as DNDN, and resolution of their drug could (will likely) take years, but it's a speculative position for now (only 750 shares).
AWWW SHiet Midas touch baby. The Az is in!
anyone else buying now for the gap up tomorrow? very risky, could go either way.
News must have gotten out that Azurik is in it. Stock is in the $11s now.
News must have gotten out that Azurik is in it. Stock is in the $11s now.
Hahaha, you guys made my chuckle
Regarding my portfolio (lets call it AZRK: ticker symbol for Azurik's Unbalanced Mutual Fund):
I'm still heavily in Pimco PTTRX bonds (and cash) to the tune of 40%. The rest of my capital is heavily invested in RMBS and DNDN, with smaller, but significant portions in TIVO, TSRA, DODFX. Every other stock I own is 2% or less of my total portofolio (like ITVN) so it's not worth mentioning by name.
I also own S&P long-term OTM puts. I need to see conclusive data that the economy is in a consistent uptrend before I revert back to 90% stock/10% bond and cash position.
For my age group, I have a "wrong" portfolio mix and one could argue I am under-diversified and depend heavily on a select group of stocks - so maybe I'm just really lucky, but looking at my 5-year and 10-year performance, I'll take it as I have handily destroyed S&P 500's performance. I mean that in a humbling way.
Maybe I should retire from creating these yearly "Official 20XX Stock Market" threads before I tarnish my legacy. Looking back, I can't believe this market commentary has been going on for the past 4+ years here!
NOTE: I have a lot of May $22/June $22 puts against my very big RMBS position. With CAFC and ITC decision coming, it will be one of the defining points of RMBS' legal wranglings. For CAFC, these are the three scenarios I see:
1) CAFC sides with Whyte over Robinson, Rambus is innocent of spoliation and memory manufacturers infringe.
a - affirms Whyte, sends decision back to Robinson to redo/retry due to errors in her decision
b - affirms Whyte, agrees with RMBS' request for venue change and sends Micron case away from Robinson to Whyte (when cases are similiar, they should be assigned to one court for judicial policy is what RMBS is arguing)
2) CAFC sides with Whyte on some issues, but also sides with Robinson that Rambus did destroy documents strategically ahead of litigation. However, they remand it back to her to reconsider outcome, because invalidating patents based on spoliation is unprecendented and very draconian.
3) CAFC dismisses Whyte and affirms Robinson (or some other close variant).
1B is the best outcome for RMBS shareholders. 1A is the likely outcome, but sending it back to Robinson is just going to cause more delays, even though the stock will appreciate big if that happens. Lets just say 3 is the worst scenario possible (and that's an understatement).
I think chances of each happening:
1A = 45%-50%
1B = 25%
2 = 20%
3 = 5%-10%
Don't forget the commission agreeing/disagreeing with the judge's initial ITC decision (Rambus vs Nokia, largely favoring Rambus) is in the mix too.
Good stuff. Any take on today's proceedings Azurik? I was trying to read some stuff on IV but couldn't determine the significance of the court proceedings with Judge Kramer.
News must have gotten out that Azurik is in it. Stock is in the $11s now.
Bought shares of ITMN in the $10's - the ITMN story isn't as strong as DNDN, and resolution of their drug could (will likely) take years, but it's a speculative position for now (only 750 shares).