Quick glance, BP has lost around $90 billion in value since the start of all this.
That seem excessive to anyone else? I don't follow oil companies...but does anybody seriously think BP could go under?
If it costs 6,000 dollars per oil that was spilled into the gulf...
Everyone do yourselves a favor, and buy USG at $16. Then take a nap and sell it in the mid $20s.
I've had a limit order to buy USG at $10 for at least 6 months now(if not more), but it never executed.
It's still active under my "Good Till Cancelled" list.
To the BP buyers, see you at single digits or where it was 3 months ago. I don't like playing russion roulette with my money.
Whitney Tilson presented what seemed like a well thought out argument for BP as a long-term investment: http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1516597145&play=1
IIRC, he still thought 10% chance of going to zero or towards zero, and it wasn't a full position in his diversified portfolio of investments.
I think there was another CNBC (Fast Money yesterday?) clip where he went into more detail about how lawsuit liabilities are likely to be drawn out over 10 years and be watered down over time (I think, but am not sure, he said they would make something obscene amount of profits in the interim).
He also never mentioned upside target once there was clarity on the actual amount of liabilities, and no mention of time frame in ideal or worst case scenario, so no ideal of best and worst case rate of return for risk taken.
Kinda curious. Have you valued it? I figure that it is worth around the $25-$30 range (after convertible note dilution) I bought my last lot at $14 and sold at $24. I just bought it back at $17. I'll double up at $10. I'm not sure if I'll dump it at $24 again though. The construction market should turn a corner by years end. The oversupply issue should be resolved that is. So drywall sales should start ticking up. Also, if you look at rail traffic, things in this country are really starting to turn.
USG is one of those easy to understand companies. Well run. And has the backing of Buffett and Prem Watsa.
Kinda curious. Have you valued it? I figure that it is worth around the $25-$30 range (after convertible note dilution) I bought my last lot at $14 and sold at $24. I just bought it back at $17. I'll double up at $10. I'm not sure if I'll dump it at $24 again though. The construction market should turn a corner by years end. The oversupply issue should be resolved that is. So drywall sales should start ticking up. Also, if you look at rail traffic, things in this country are really starting to turn.
USG is one of those easy to understand companies. Well run. And has the backing of Buffett and Prem Watsa.
Can someone please answer a couple of n00b questions for me:
1. Whenever you see the percent change displayed for a stock or index during the day when markets are open, is that percent change relative to that day's opening price, or the previous day's close?
2. Related to question number 1, I've noticed that the previous day's close for a stock/index usually doesn't equal the next day's opening price. I assume this is because there is still some market open somewhere where you can trade stocks after the "official" ones have closed? Can you trade whatever you want when the main markets are closed? If so, what's the point of having an official market open and close time?
I haven't done so yet personally.
However, the fact that the company is owned by both Warren Buffett, Prem Watsa...People I highly admire, is enough for me to consider taking a look.
Donald Yacktman(big shareholder in ACF) also own it.
I think Buffett and Prem Watsa have convertible notes in USG so I need to look at the terms of those as well before reaching an actual value.
I'm still kicking myself for missing Zenith...I looked at the company last year and had valued it even before Prem Watsa bought it.
I was too busy probing ACF's books.
I seem to be spending a lot more of my time looking at NCAV's now.
My objective is to find one that isn't a "roach motel".
while I think that you're overall correct, I don't see the construction market turning by years end. For commercial projects, Architects and engineers have to be doing drawings well in advance (years, usually) before construction starts...and the AEC industry continues to see drops in available work. There's very little financing for developers simply because the banks are hunkered down waiting for the commercial market crash everyone's been talking about for a year and a half. The stock of "designed, but waiting on money" projects is actually pretty low, from what I've seen.
Residential projects, there's a chance it could turn soon, slightly. More and more buyers want "new" and the stock of existing homes isn't appealing to many of them.
Can someone please answer a couple of n00b questions for me:
1. Whenever you see the percent change displayed for a stock or index during the day when markets are open, is that percent change relative to that day's opening price, or the previous day's close?
2. Related to question number 1, I've noticed that the previous day's close for a stock/index usually doesn't equal the next day's opening price. I assume this is because there is still some market open somewhere where you can trade stocks after the "official" ones have closed? Can you trade whatever you want when the main markets are closed? If so, what's the point of having an official market open and close time?
I guess these are noob questions. I see soemone answered.
Don't worry about the daily movement things. Forget that the stock market exists and realize the truth. These are companies that can be bought and sold via fractional ownership. This is no different than buying a pizza place. If you bought a local pizza place, you'd look for two things:
1) a pizza place that the locals love and will be around in 20 years
2) You would see what CASH the place provides you each year and pay based on that. FCF = all cash inflows minus all cash outflows.
People either get it in 5 minutes or they will never get it. It is not complicated. It really is this simple.
The oversupply is projected to not be in oversupply about 6 months from now. Thank goodness growing US population!
The thing people forget is that homes are also replaced. They burn down. Go into disrepair, etc. That is part of the yin to the housing gluts yang. I think this replacement number is something like 1 million homes a year. It is not a small number.
I don't see housing prices going up, but people need places to live. Housing prices are still at historically high levels. We've simply moved from irrationally high to historically high. I don't see prices going much of anywhere for 5-10 years and it has nothing to do with the economy.
If you are a long term hold kinda guy.
I'm in between, I'm looking for 6 month - 1 year stocks which will make 20%. Therefore I am particularly looking for undervalued stock.
For example, WFR. I bought WFR at $13 a few months ago then sold when they hit $16. They had a bad earnings report and tanked. They have TONS of cash and will come back like crazy with the economy. So I bought back in at $10.80. I feel very confident they will hit my $17 target in 3-6 months.
Anyone know of any other stocks they feel similarly about?
I like Ford but I''m already in Ford enough. I like Southwest Airlines (LUV) but I feel they are a little overvalued right now. I might stay in technology and go with TQNT.
GNVC hired Wells Fargo for financial services. To me, this translates into they hired a broker to put them up for sale.
How do you value the stocks you are buying?