***Official*** 2010 Stock Market Thread

[thepd7]

anyone have any thoughts on LUV or JPM? I have some free cash and I'm trying to get into some solid stocks which should produce 10-15% gains if the economy keeps recovering.

 

[thepd7]

anyone have any thoughts on LUV or JPM? I have some free cash and I'm trying to get into some solid stocks which should produce 10-15% gains if the economy keeps recovering.

I went ahead and picked up some LUV, still interested in getting into a financial stock and would love to hear recommendations.

 

[Alienwho]

Does anybody here own VMWare? I was really tempted to pick up VMWare last year at this time when it was at about ~$30. I chickened out and didn't go through with it and now they seem to be exploding. Currently at ~$73.

 

[snoopdoug1]

VHC doing well today after announcing a special .50 cents/share dividend. I'm glad I held on for the ride now

 

[thepd7]

If you are a long term hold kinda guy.

I'm in between, I'm looking for 6 month - 1 year stocks which will make 20%. Therefore I am particularly looking for undervalued stock.

For example, WFR. I bought WFR at $13 a few months ago then sold when they hit $16. They had a bad earnings report and tanked. They have TONS of cash and will come back like crazy with the economy. So I bought back in at $10.80. I feel very confident they will hit my $17 target in 3-6 months.

Anyone know of any other stocks they feel similarly about?

I like Ford but I''m already in Ford enough. I like Southwest Airlines (LUV) but I feel they are a little overvalued right now. I might stay in technology and go with TQNT.

How do you value the stocks you are buying?

haha I guess. I buy solid companies (I like seeing lots of cash) in industries I like or see as being successful and I look at the recent trends.

In this economy that's enough for me to be up 60% in the last year and a half.

For what it's worth, stock analysts agree with me:

http://www.cnanalyst.com/2010/06/to...-wfr-solr-eslr-sol-spwra-stp-jun-16-2010.html

 

[eLiu]

VHC doing well today after announcing a special .50 cents/share dividend. I'm glad I held on for the ride now

Is it worth picking up more shares for the dividend?

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

For bank ideas, I would only consider two right now. WFC and USB.

I figure that WFC is worth in the $40-$50 range based on pre housing bubble earnings levels adjusted for inflation (and maybe 1-2% on top of that). More detailed valuations that I have read put it at right around $50.

Non banking -
I recently bought Lee Enterprises. A newspaper company. It is currently trading at around $3. I figure that it is worth around $20. Maybe more. I am writing an article about it and will link it when it is posted.

 

[JS80]

GS

 

[JS80]

For bank ideas, I would only consider two right now. WFC and USB.

I figure that WFC is worth in the $40-$50 range based on pre housing bubble earnings levels adjusted for inflation (and maybe 1-2% on top of that). More detailed valuations that I have read put it at right around $50.

Non banking -
I recently bought Lee Enterprises. A newspaper company. It is currently trading at around $3. I figure that it is worth around $20. Maybe more. I am writing an article about it and will link it when it is posted.

lol at $20, it's EV would be at 50x EBITDA

 

[thepd7]

Non banking -
I recently bought Lee Enterprises. A newspaper company. It is currently trading at around $3. I figure that it is worth around $20. Maybe more. I am writing an article about it and will link it when it is posted.

I've seen you mention that a few times, I'm definitely interested in the article so definitely post when you finish it.

 

[snoopdoug1]

Is it worth picking up more shares for the dividend?

Maybe. In theory the stock should drop 50 cents when the dividend is paid, but that won't happen. It seems to be the market is responding well to this, thinking that if they're paying out then they must be 1) in good shape or 2) they know more than we do as to what's coming. Heck the stock is up over 50 cents since they announced it!

 

[eLiu]

Maybe. In theory the stock should drop 50 cents when the dividend is paid, but that won't happen. It seems to be the market is responding well to this, thinking that if they're paying out then they must be 1) in good shape or 2) they know more than we do as to what's coming. Heck the stock is up over 50 cents since they announced it!

Yeah I know the basic theory behind dividends (market should adjust the stock value down to compensate for the release of capital), but I'm pretty sure that's far from infallible. Some funds (like ADVDX or VHDYX) seem to make their livelihoods on buying stocks just before ex-dividend and holding just long enough (60 days) to avoid tax.

But yeah there's still 2 weeks before July 1, so who knows what will happen by then...

I guess I was wondering if anyone has seen this sort of thing happen before--"XXX stock released a special dividend and their stock price dropped soon before the dividend date" or something. Given how positive the market reaction to the event was, I feel tempted to pick up a few more shares... though maybe I should curb that enthusiasm??

Probably it mostly depends on whether some bad shit happens in europe next week! Gah.

 

[The-Noid]

IHateMyJob JNJ to 100 by year end?

 

[snoopdoug1]

Yeah I know the basic theory behind dividends (market should adjust the stock value down to compensate for the release of capital), but I'm pretty sure that's far from infallible. Some funds (like ADVDX or VHDYX) seem to make their livelihoods on buying stocks just before ex-dividend and holding just long enough (60 days) to avoid tax.

But yeah there's still 2 weeks before July 1, so who knows what will happen by then...

I guess I was wondering if anyone has seen this sort of thing happen before--"XXX stock released a special dividend and their stock price dropped soon before the dividend date" or something. Given how positive the market reaction to the event was, I feel tempted to pick up a few more shares... though maybe I should curb that enthusiasm??

Probably it mostly depends on whether some bad shit happens in europe next week! Gah.

I think I misunderstood your point - my bad. I hear you. I'm tempted too, but I think I'm going to hold off. I'm scared we're headed south as a market.

 

[thepd7]

where else do yall go for financial forums? I was really bored at work this week and would love to have someplace I can read more and maybe have a community like AT but focused on the market.

 

[Regs]

where else do yall go for financial forums? I was really bored at work this week and would love to have someplace I can read more and maybe have a community like AT but focused on the market.

They're all filled with crazies.

 

[eLiu]

They're all filled with crazies.

The yahoo boards (on a per-stock basis) are often pretty hilarious for that reason...

Though tbh I think on most boards you'll find a small core of people who have something meaningful to say, who post interesting/informative articles, etc.

 

[lothar]

For what it's worth, stock analysts agree with me:

http://www.cnanalyst.com/2010/06/to...-wfr-solr-eslr-sol-spwra-stp-jun-16-2010.html

One can find any analyst that can agree with any prediction.
You know what they say about "statistics", right?

 

[lothar]

I recently bought Lee Enterprises. A newspaper company. It is currently trading at around $3. I figure that it is worth around $20. Maybe more. I am writing an article about it and will link it when it is posted.

I read your article on LEE two days ago. Interesting analysis.
That company certainly seems to offer more value than Garnett Co. on a risk/reward basis. Garnett Co. is probably the best(if not the best) in that category, but it hasn't been beaten down like the others(probably because Buffett's name is attached to it).

I also tried comparing LEE to MNI yesterday. MNI looked better for only the first 3 minutes I looked at it. After that, almost everything I saw about it was completely unfavorable. They do have similar debt load like LEE and have better FCF, but their cash on hand is relatively very low. MNI also seems to be attracting quite a lot(understatement) of short interest, more so than the others in the industry.

 

[manlymatt83]

So, what's everyone think for this week?

 

[manlymatt83]

What's everyone think of SMBL, ORB, and ISSC? Is GERN still a possibility?

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

IHateMyJob JNJ to 100 by year end?

I don't know. I am not a speculator that tries to time markets. I prefer to buy things for less than they are worth. Over time, price will follow value.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

where else do yall go for financial forums? I was really bored at work this week and would love to have someplace I can read more and maybe have a community like AT but focused on the market.

gurufocus.com has good forums. If you are a speculator or you think Jim Cramer is smart, you won't fit in. If you know who Seth Klarman is, you'll fit in.

It's an investment forum. Not for speculators.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

One can find any analyst that can agree with any prediction.
You know what they say about "statistics", right?

Analysts are good for one thing. Telling you what happened in the past.

 

[FelixDeCat]

MGM headed south to $10+ then maybe $13 by August.