***Official*** 2010 Stock Market Thread

[JS80]

where else do yall go for financial forums? I was really bored at work this week and would love to have someplace I can read more and maybe have a community like AT but focused on the market.

http://www.fatwallet.com/forums/finance/962217/?newest=1#last

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Lothar,

I need to read more about hte newspaper industry and it's companies. Just to get a better understanding. Time though, is hard to come by these days for me.

 

[The-Noid]

GNVC hired Wells Fargo for financial services. To me, this translates into they hired a broker to put them up for sale.

Wells Fargo capital markets is more known for bond offerings than equity. They would sign onto a syndicate but not be the lead underwriter/adviser to an M & A deal imo.

 

[The-Noid]

Analysts are good for one thing. Telling you what happened in the past.

Sell side analysts have actually been fairly good over the last couple of years. With the decimilization of the industry, research departments have had to reinvent themselves and have done fairly well at it.

As a die hard value investor like you are, brokerage research should be among the number ones things you would look at...by mocking brokerage research you are mocking yourself.

 

[PimpJuice]

I'm curious if anybody knows the latest on DNDN?

I've been watching it slide down quite a bit in the last month.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Sell side analysts have actually been fairly good over the last couple of years. With the decimilization of the industry, research departments have had to reinvent themselves and have done fairly well at it.

As a die hard value investor like you are, brokerage research should be among the number ones things you would look at...by mocking brokerage research you are mocking yourself.

Buffett has not once hired an analyst in all his years. So, he is mocking himself?

No, arm chair value investors that are mostly clueless use brokerage research. Actualy investors read industry data (railroad data for example is easy to come by) and annual/quareterly reports. The only way to invest intelegently is by reading, reading and reading. The valuation part is the easy part.

You can learn more simply by knowing that Prem Watsa is buying SD than any brokerage research on SD will ever tell you. The thing that is quickly apparent about SD is that they are working in the interests of it's investors. No research is going to tell you this.

Also, the valuations "brokerage research" assigns are hogwash. Usually using EPS and PE ratios. Totally uselss metrics to a business owner. But that's what most of the public wants so that's what they give them.

"sell side", "buy side". More hogwash. 1) Is the company investor friendly? 2) Can value be determined? 3) What is it worth? I dopn't care if it is JNJ. If JNJ were selling at 1 trillion right now, shorting is hte only option. If it is where it is today though, buying is the best option.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I'm curious if anybody knows the latest on DNDN?

I've been watching it slide down quite a bit in the last month.

I dont have any money on it but I think Dendreon gets bought this year by JNJ for $77 per share.

 

[The-Noid]

IHateMyJob: You are so full of shit your head should explode.

Do you actually read Berkshire prospectuses or do you just pull this shit out of your ass?

Berkshire is an investment banking client and advisory client of BOAML, GS, MS, JEF, WFC, BK and has smaller relationships with 100's of other companies. Buffet has owned a brokerage firm and is now a large shareholder GS. Obviously he believes in research and brokerage.

Sell side, the side that sells securities, they want you to pay them in soft dollars.

Buy side, the institutional side that writes research reports either for hard dollars or for their own individual shareholders/mutual holders.

You are right this isn't that hard, you just have very little knowledge of what you talk, but you use big buzz words and talk about people that you know nothing about.

 

[MotF Bane]

I dont have any money on it but I think Dendreon gets bought this year by JNJ for $77 per share.

Noob question - what happens to shares of DNDN owned in very small amounts (say, 100) in that event?

 

[The-Noid]

Depends if it is a cash offer or a stock offer.

Cash your brokerage account will have $7700 in it and you will not have anymore DNDN stock.

Stock offer you will receive shares of JNJ is a predetermined formula from JNJ's board and DNDN's board and investment bankers.

 

[MotF Bane]

Depends if it is a cash offer or a stock offer.

Cash your brokerage account will have $7700 in it and you will not have anymore DNDN stock.

Stock offer you will receive shares of JNJ is a predetermined formula from JNJ's board and DNDN's board and investment bankers.

Thanks.

 

[snoopdoug1]

I dont have any money on it but I think Dendreon gets bought this year by JNJ for $77 per share.

It is kind of weird how far it has fallen - best I can tell nothing has changed with it. I guess it's just getting dragged down by the market in general? It's back to below it's preapproval price isn't it?

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

IHateMyJob: You are so full of shit your head should explode.

That's an intellegent comment.

Do you actually read Berkshire prospectuses or do you just pull this shit out of your ass?

Pot? kettle?

Ya, your rambling is about 90% off topic. Are you still talking value investing or just ranting?

Berkshire is an investment banking client and advisory client of BOAML, GS, MS, JEF, WFC, BK and has smaller relationships with 100's of other companies. Buffet has owned a brokerage firm and is now a large shareholder GS. Obviously he believes in research and brokerage.

So, are you claiming that Buffett uses analysts in his business decisions?

Not sure what most of that was in relation to value investing. But this (" Obviously he believes in research and brokerage.") implies that he uses some sort of belief system. In terms of comapnies Buffett has purchased, he knows the busienss, why it has competitive advantages and what it is worth. He usually pays less for companies than they are worth. BNI is an expcetion unless you conisder the VERY long term returns. But JNJ, he is probably buying that at half price meaning that my exstimate of $90-$100 is conservative.

Sell side, the side that sells securities, they want you to pay them in soft dollars.

Buy side, the institutional side that writes research reports either for hard dollars or for their own individual shareholders/mutual holders.

You said buy side and sell side in the context of analysts. So why would anyone think that you meant soemthign other than that?

You are right this isn't that hard, you just have very little knowledge of what you talk, but you use big buzz words and talk about people that you know nothing about.

Pot, kettle?

Are you still talking about value investing? Or just venting about something?

 

[JS80]

lol so funny you idolize Buffett. During his era picking stocks was shooting fish in a barrel. If Buffett were born today or in the 90s or 80s or 70s he'd be a redneck in Nebraska.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

lol so funny you idolize Buffett. During his era picking stocks was shooting fish in a barrel. If Buffett were born today or in the 90s or 80s or 70s he'd be a redneck in Nebraska.

I'm assuming that you mean me.

Buffett has a bigger cash hoard. He can't buy small stocks. FYI: He has stated that if he had less moeny to manage ($1 milion) that he could do better than 50% annually. It's called turning over rocks and finding the bargains others are missing.

Have you stdied value investing? What Buffett does? What Charlie Munger does? What makes them succesful?

Probably not. Because obviously, you know with all your heart that those that "idolize him" do so for what must be no good reason at all. They must be idiots.

The trader philiosophy over the long term: Buy/Sell frequntly. Perform inline with major indices less commisions. The traders hall of fame consists of an empty room. I can fill a page of with members of the value investing hall of fame.

 

[The-Noid]

That's an intellegent comment.

Pot? kettle?

Ya, your rambling is about 90% off topic. Are you still talking value investing or just ranting?

So, are you claiming that Buffett uses analysts in his business decisions?

Not sure what most of that was in relation to value investing. But this (" Obviously he believes in research and brokerage.") implies that he uses some sort of belief system. In terms of comapnies Buffett has purchased, he knows the busienss, why it has competitive advantages and what it is worth. He usually pays less for companies than they are worth. BNI is an expcetion unless you conisder the VERY long term returns. But JNJ, he is probably buying that at half price meaning that my exstimate of $90-$100 is conservative.

You said buy side and sell side in the context of analysts. So why would anyone think that you meant soemthign other than that?


Pot, kettle?

Are you still talking about value investing? Or just venting about something?

Yes he does use analysts and numerous investment bankers. Read any release after he purchases a company...

Again address any of the concerns from this post. Buffet, I will not use derivatives but the balance sheet has 20B of notional 8 years later.

I also talked about sell side analysts and you defined buy side analysts you do not know the difference. You purchase from the buy side or investment bankers. You receive from the sell side they are trying to sell you on research so you trade through them to get best execution. The sell side analysis in the last 2-3 years has gotten very good compared to what it used to be. Have you ever actually read a research report or looked at an earnings model?

I just think you provide absolutely horrible advice and have no idea what you are talking about. You may have read a book about Warren Buffet but that can not be your claim to fame.

 

[SandEagle]

YRCW. worth getting in now?

 

[snoopdoug1]

Thoughts on RMBS dropping back to the 18's? I guess it's still a good medium term buy if you can wait til Oct?

 

[Jassi]

I need help. E*Trade is my speculative play and I'm averaged at $17.76. I know people on the board had a negative outlook on it. The question I have is, do you think it's worth averaging down at it's current price?

FWIW, I thought that they were trading at a discount but the stale PPS has me doubting myself. Your thoughts?

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Yes he does use analysts and numerous investment bankers. Read any release after he purchases a company...

Again address any of the concerns from this post. Buffet, I will not use derivatives but the balance sheet has 20B of notional 8 years later.

I also talked about sell side analysts and you defined buy side analysts you do not know the difference. You purchase from the buy side or investment bankers. You receive from the sell side they are trying to sell you on research so you trade through them to get best execution. The sell side analysis in the last 2-3 years has gotten very good compared to what it used to be. Have you ever actually read a research report or looked at an earnings model?

I just think you provide absolutely horrible advice and have no idea what you are talking about. You may have read a book about Warren Buffet but that can not be your claim to fame.

Voxxy,

You are not even talking about value investing. Like I said and will say again, Buffett has publicly stated that he has never asked for the advice of an analyst when making an investment decision. I can not say this any more clearly.

Why do you insist on straying off topic?

 

[The-Noid]

Find me a quote you lying piece of shit.

You have no idea about investing.

You have no idea about "value" investing.

You have no idea what free cash flow is. You definition is completely wrong.

Leave this topic, you provide nothing but ideas that will lose people money.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Yoxxy, I finally found out why you are so confused. I had to see what angered you so much at first.

You said:
"IHateMyJob JNJ to 100 by year end?"

Which means you:
1) don't understand value investing
- and -
2) didn't read to much of what was said about JNJ.

I will reiterate. Mr Market is a manic depressive indivual. Where JNJ will be in 12 months is anyones guess. $40, $60, $80? But 5 years from now, it should be well trading well north of $100. I think I said somethign along the lines of a 50/50 chance of JNJ hitting $90+ by Jan 2012 whcih was about 2 years out at the time.

I'll make this simple for you. Price follows value. JNJ's value is $90-$100. The price will follow in time.

I have to assume that you are a speculator. You either get it (value investing) in 5 minutes, or you do not. I've spent my 5 minutes.

Do you know what free cash flow is and what discounting is? That is all there is to value investmenting. It really is that simple. liek I said, you either get it or you do not. But please, enlighten us with more words.

In closing:
"In The Theory of Investment Value, written over 50 years ago, John Burr Williams set forth the equation for value, which we condense here: The value of any stock, bond or business today is determined by the cash inflows and outflows - discounted at an appropriate interest rate - that can be expected to occur during the remaining life of the asset." -1992 letter BRK shareholder letter

Seriosuly though, I'm on minute 7 now. Good luck.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Find me a quote you lying piece of shit.

3

You have no idea about investing.

2 - pot?

You have no idea about "value" investing.

1 -

You have no idea what free cash flow is. You definition is completely wrong.

0 - KETTLE!?!?!?!?!?!?

Leave this topic, you provide nothing but ideas that will lose people money.

With such intelegent words, I guess I should listen. On second thought ... no.

9 minutes, you still don't get it.

 

[JS80]

lol you're seriously lowest common denominator.

 

[manlymatt83]

What do you guys think about Dollar Cost Averaging at this point? Maybe a few hundred a week into about 10 stocks. Market dips, you'll continue to buy more shares.