***Official*** 2010 Stock Market Thread

[The-Noid]

Yoxxy, I finally found out why you are so confused. I had to see what angered you so much at first.

You said:
"IHateMyJob JNJ to 100 by year end?"

Which means you:
1) don't understand value investing
- and -
2) didn't read to much of what was said about JNJ.

I will reiterate. Mr Market is a manic depressive indivual. Where JNJ will be in 12 months is anyones guess. $40, $60, $80? But 5 years from now, it should be well trading well north of $100. I think I said somethign along the lines of a 50/50 chance of JNJ hitting $90+ by Jan 2012 whcih was about 2 years out at the time.

I'll make this simple for you. Price follows value. JNJ's value is $90-$100. The price will follow in time.

I have to assume that you are a speculator. You either get it (value investing) in 5 minutes, or you do not. I've spent my 5 minutes.

Do you know what free cash flow is and what discounting is? That is all there is to value investmenting. It really is that simple. liek I said, you either get it or you do not. But please, enlighten us with more words.

In closing:
"In The Theory of Investment Value, written over 50 years ago, John Burr Williams set forth the equation for value, which we condense here: The value of any stock, bond or business today is determined by the cash inflows and outflows - discounted at an appropriate interest rate - that can be expected to occur during the remaining life of the asset." -1992 letter BRK shareholder letter

Seriosuly though, I'm on minute 7 now. Good luck.

You talked earlier about buying JNJ calls at 100. I said you were front running low volume calls. I still believe that you left a long time ago Leave this thread again.

Williams and Graham formed the basis for what analysts do on a daily basis, only now there are models that allow you to change any number of variables. It is still the same as discounting by a single variable with an abacus. DO YOU NOT UNDERSTAND THIS? FCF is a modern corporation is a bit more than just all inflows minus all outflows. You have reclassifications of cash flows, timing issues, persistence issues and forecasting issues.

Your form of investing is cash inflows - cash outflows * 1(percentage increase you came up with in your pea brain). OMG IT IS THAT SIMPLE. NO ONE FIGURED THIS OUT 60 years ago!

JNJ's intrinsic value is not 90 or 100. You are nuts to think that.

Disclosure. I have a beneficial long position in JNJ.

 

[The-Noid]

What do you guys think about Dollar Cost Averaging at this point? Maybe a few hundred a week into about 10 stocks. Market dips, you'll continue to buy more shares.

I personally have never been a fan of DCA programs.

1.) if you DCA into a down market you still lose money.
2.) If I am not in favor of a position today, why am I in favor of it over 6-8 weeks?

I have core positions that are 6-9 month holds, but normally holding frame is much shorter than that for me so I may not be the best example.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Yoxxy,

Good luck in investments. Good luck in life.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I personally have never been a fan of DCA programs.

1.) if you DCA into a down market you still lose money.
2.) If I am not in favor of a position today, why am I in favor of it over 6-8 weeks?

I have core positions that are 6-9 month holds, but normally holding frame is much shorter than that for me so I may not be the best example.

manlymat, I'll answer for you first.

Regarding DCA ...
For a value investment perspective. It's personal choice in the end. The mistake most people make is cost averaging after a 5% or 10% move. All that does is shove money into mediator's pockets. The reason people on TV and in print advise it to be a good idea is that the mediators are paying for advertising. The advertising in turn pays the publication or TV show. I usually use the term complimentary copy. The producers of news know that if they advise frequent trading techniques that the advertisers will make more money, thus continuing to pay for the ads. Jim Kramer is the perfect manic depressive character for advertisers. Watch his show some time but pay attention to hte advertisers and how those advertisers make money.

To get detailed I'd have to write an article, which I do actually get paid to do as a side job. Maybe I'll look into that ...

First, you should be buying companies when on sale. If worth $100/share, pay $75 at most. $50 is even better. The opportunities are there but you have to look for them. Second, you should have enough confidence in that company to know that you will dollar cost average if the stock drops enough. I usually do not care unless a stock falls nearly 50% from when I bought it. If it drops and your instinct is to sell, you made a mistake.

Personally, I think that people should not DCA unless a stock falls 25% from where they bought it. And again at 50% from their originally purchase price. If it keeps falling, keep buying. That is, so long as it is still the company you thought it was when you first bought.

If you don't have conviction like this in your stock picks (to keep buying as it tanks), consider an index fund. it takes time to be an investor. most if it is reading industry reports and financial reports to understand where things are going.

For example, I bought USG at $17. I have no interest in DCAing unless it drops to about $10 (a drop of 40% from where I bought it). Shoving my cost basis towards $13-$14. Something that I am more than happy to do knowing that USG has a value north of $25. Do your own due diligence. Don't do what I do because I do it. Do it because you know why you should be doing it.


Yoxxy,
6-9 month time frames. How on Earth do you claim to be someone that should be teaching value investing? You really need to realize what you know and what you don't know. You don't have a clue as to what value investing is. if you do, you surely do not practice it. So, in the future. Really. Stop pretending that you invest intelligently (surely you know where the idea of investing intelligently come from being such an expert on value investing)

You bash me for being a value investor. Which implies you know something about value investing. I hope this is not a value investment perspective you are giving. Because if it is, you have no clue what you are doing. What is the point of the 6-8 week time frame you gave?

You really need to leave this thread. Or atleast stop playing some sort of game where you think you know how to be a value investor. You are just an arrogant newbie investor that seems to speculate. The time frame you have for your investments (9 months) is pretty much saying that you are a speculator, not an investor. Seriously, that's why I say most people are arm chair value investors. no real value investor would claim to have a 9 month time horizon. No where anywhere near that. So, is it isimply that you don't know what you don't know? Or are you making comments without any actual knowledge?

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

You talked earlier about buying JNJ calls at 100. I said you were front running low volume calls. I still believe that you left a long time ago Leave this thread again.

Williams and Graham formed the basis for what analysts do on a daily basis, only now there are models that allow you to change any number of variables. It is still the same as discounting by a single variable with an abacus. DO YOU NOT UNDERSTAND THIS? FCF is a modern corporation is a bit more than just all inflows minus all outflows. You have reclassifications of cash flows, timing issues, persistence issues and forecasting issues.

Your form of investing is cash inflows - cash outflows * 1(percentage increase you came up with in your pea brain). OMG IT IS THAT SIMPLE. NO ONE FIGURED THIS OUT 60 years ago!

JNJ's intrinsic value is not 90 or 100. You are nuts to think that.

Disclosure. I have a beneficial long position in JNJ.

A "beneficial long position". Do you even speak English?

My form of investing is discounting projecting future free cash flows (cash inflows - cash outflows) for 20 years and then discounting them to today's dollars. OMG IT IS THAT SIMPLE. ... YOU ARE FINALLY GETTING IT!!! Congratulations! As a business owner, do you care about GAAP earnings? Or do you care about the cash you generated over the past year? GAAP earnings doesn't put food on the table. Cash does. The money that is a result of cash inflows minus cash outflows is what you have in the end. if you bring $1,000,000 in as a business owner and your outflows are $900,000, that leaves $100,000 for your pocket. That's year 1. What about the next 20 years? 50 years? What are those free cash flows worth in today's dollars? Ya, that is discounting of future free cash flows. The very heart of value investing! Get it? IT IS THIS SIMPLE!

Stop misrepresenting yourself. You may know how to value a company. That's about 5%-10% of what value investing is. But for the most part, you don't seem to practice value investing. Pick a company you own. Tell us what it is worth and why. Then tell us why. I'll skip JNJ and do PG. PG is a joke to understand why it will be around for 50 years. Super easy to value.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

SIMPLE:
Value investing is more than putting a dollar sign in front of a number for a stock. I spent 15 hours on Lee so far. And about 10 minutes figuring out what it is worth. When a company is worth $20 and trading at $3, you don't worry about the fact of it being worth $19 or $21. You know, the whole 50 cent dollar thing. You know about 50 cent dollars, right? Don't worry you can Google it and claim to have known it all along. That's all value investing is. It is paying 50 cents for something worth a dollar. And one day, people will realize that it is worth a dollar and start paying a dollar. To complicated?

 

[senseamp]

I am half in cash, thinking with all this austerity talk, we are probably in for more trouble. Not sure I want to be buying more at this point.

 

[The-Noid]

Part of our contract is we can't manage our own capital besides the strategy of the firm.

Let's go through it word by word because you obviously are not in the industry.

Long, someone owns something.

Beneficial, I don't own it directly, but the better the CRUT does during the year the larger my distribution.

Beneficial long JNJ, an SMA in my CRUT purchased JNJ, so although I am not directly long JNJ, I have a beneficial interest in JNJ doing well.

 

[The-Noid]

I am not a value investor. Warren Buffett is not a value investor. You may think you are a value investor but you have oversimplified what value investing really is.

Value investors don't use derivatives to protect the way down. I use derivatives, the firm uses derivatives and Warren Buffett uses derivatives.

What about the value investor who has been long the S & P top 50 value names over the last 10 years and has done a -6% annualized, are they a value investor? People have a need for absolute returns, whether they be high net worth individuals that are looking to donate to an alma matter or the alma matter themselves looking at their operating budget. The bulk of investments throughout the US are moving away from value investing because value investing simply does not work.

I am in Minnesota and I will use Minnesota Public Employee Retirement plan as the example. In the 80's it was the classic 60/40 plan, the 90's it was a 55/45 plan. Now it is a 45/33/22 with the 22% going to alternative investments of which 18% of that is hedge funds.

There is a definite need for absolute returns and in turn there are three prices in any investment.

1.) The price at which you are willing to enter a trade.
2.) The price at which you exit the trade because it is fairly priced.
3.) The cost at which you exit the trade because it went the other way on you. This price generally moves up unless you were wrong all along.

Market, Limit, Stop.

Value investing is dead and buried and Warren Buffett is the world's largest hedge fund that gets to use other people's capital to meet his own needs of having a huge ego. Any other hedge fund manager that talked their book like Warren did would be in jail and had as much inside information as he did would be in jail. The fact that he is Warren Buffett keeps him out of jail and you blowing him while he gives speeches.

 

[The-Noid]

A "beneficial long position". Do you even speak English?

My form of investing is discounting projecting future free cash flows (cash inflows - cash outflows) for 20 years and then discounting them to today's dollars. OMG IT IS THAT SIMPLE. ... YOU ARE FINALLY GETTING IT!!! Congratulations! As a business owner, do you care about GAAP earnings? Or do you care about the cash you generated over the past year? GAAP earnings doesn't put food on the table. Cash does. The money that is a result of cash inflows minus cash outflows is what you have in the end. if you bring $1,000,000 in as a business owner and your outflows are $900,000, that leaves $100,000 for your pocket. That's year 1. What about the next 20 years? 50 years? What are those free cash flows worth in today's dollars? Ya, that is discounting of future free cash flows. The very heart of value investing! Get it? IT IS THIS SIMPLE!

Stop misrepresenting yourself. You may know how to value a company. That's about 5%-10% of what value investing is. But for the most part, you don't seem to practice value investing. Pick a company you own. Tell us what it is worth and why. Then tell us why. I'll skip JNJ and do PG. PG is a joke to understand why it will be around for 50 years. Super easy to value.

GAAP is crap but it is the best we have.

If you hate GAAP you are really going to hate IFRS much less transparent and fair value is going to drive you nuts. GAAP is rules based, IFRS is principals based.

Welcome to freshman year of any university. Do you teach business to kids that aren't even in the major?

5-10%? Is that a fact. Cool.

The valuation reports for PG average 61 pages with a median of 63 of the 6 I looked at before I left work, can you value it in two sentences for us? You are much smarter and know much more so I am sure you will get it right! The people that have senior management on their speed dials and fly out to meetings and actually going to shareholders meetings as well as having much more sophisticated valuation models know nothing compared to you!

If your time horizon is 50 years I am sure you may be able to invest in many companies and make money. Others need to pay money out before that time horizon and can't wait for inflation to raise the share price over the long term.

 

[The-Noid]

I am half in cash, thinking with all this austerity talk, we are probably in for more trouble. Not sure I want to be buying more at this point.

Market is at a crossing point. IMO we either sell down a bit more into earnings or stay flat.

At some point we need to see topline growth in earnings for the market to continue up. Bottom line has been great but you can only fire a finite amount of your workforce and move to the motel 6 from the four season for so long.

 

[The-Noid]

manlymat, I'll answer for you first.

Regarding DCA ...
For a value investment perspective. It's personal choice in the end. The mistake most people make is cost averaging after a 5% or 10% move. All that does is shove money into mediator's pockets. The reason people on TV and in print advise it to be a good idea is that the mediators are paying for advertising. The advertising in turn pays the publication or TV show. I usually use the term complimentary copy. The producers of news know that if they advise frequent trading techniques that the advertisers will make more money, thus continuing to pay for the ads. Jim Kramer is the perfect manic depressive character for advertisers. Watch his show some time but pay attention to hte advertisers and how those advertisers make money.

To get detailed I'd have to write an article, which I do actually get paid to do as a side job. Maybe I'll look into that ...

First, you should be buying companies when on sale. If worth $100/share, pay $75 at most. $50 is even better. The opportunities are there but you have to look for them. Second, you should have enough confidence in that company to know that you will dollar cost average if the stock drops enough. I usually do not care unless a stock falls nearly 50% from when I bought it. If it drops and your instinct is to sell, you made a mistake.

Personally, I think that people should not DCA unless a stock falls 25% from where they bought it. And again at 50% from their originally purchase price. If it keeps falling, keep buying. That is, so long as it is still the company you thought it was when you first bought.

If you don't have conviction like this in your stock picks (to keep buying as it tanks), consider an index fund. it takes time to be an investor. most if it is reading industry reports and financial reports to understand where things are going.

For example, I bought USG at $17. I have no interest in DCAing unless it drops to about $10 (a drop of 40% from where I bought it). Shoving my cost basis towards $13-$14. Something that I am more than happy to do knowing that USG has a value north of $25. Do your own due diligence. Don't do what I do because I do it. Do it because you know why you should be doing it.


Yoxxy,
6-9 month time frames. How on Earth do you claim to be someone that should be teaching value investing? You really need to realize what you know and what you don't know. You don't have a clue as to what value investing is. if you do, you surely do not practice it. So, in the future. Really. Stop pretending that you invest intelligently (surely you know where the idea of investing intelligently come from being such an expert on value investing)

You bash me for being a value investor. Which implies you know something about value investing. I hope this is not a value investment perspective you are giving. Because if it is, you have no clue what you are doing. What is the point of the 6-8 week time frame you gave?

You really need to leave this thread. Or atleast stop playing some sort of game where you think you know how to be a value investor. You are just an arrogant newbie investor that seems to speculate. The time frame you have for your investments (9 months) is pretty much saying that you are a speculator, not an investor. Seriously, that's why I say most people are arm chair value investors. no real value investor would claim to have a 9 month time horizon. No where anywhere near that. So, is it isimply that you don't know what you don't know? Or are you making comments without any actual knowledge?

Quite a deal, I can't speak much but we are on the other side of USG and been right since 22. I just don't understand anything you say. You are valuing a company that without borrowing has negative FCFF and increases DOP to create any kind of liquidity. All you are doing is making an industry bet, you aren't doing any kind of absolute or even relative valuation. Relatively it is expensive, absolutely it is incredibly expensive. You are making a sector bet that housing does better and USG is the most levered to the recovery in housing/homebuilding. This was a setup, you wanted me to bite. I get it. You got me, hook line and sinker.

Looked at buying CDS on USG as well. CDS would have been a better trade after the downgrade today. USG is a stock that has a possibility of going to 0.

What do you wrong(not write, get it) articles on, as far as I can tell you have either been blatantly wrong or lied throughout this entire thread...

 

[FelixDeCat]

I think Rambus will see the $15s before it sees the $20s again. Ive always had a dim view of patent troll companies, but not about making money. And if they are successful more power to them, but if they fail I wont shed a tear either.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Quite a deal, I can't speak much but we are on the other side of USG and been right since 22. I just don't understand anything you say. You are valuing a company that without borrowing has negative FCFF and increases DOP to create any kind of liquidity. All you are doing is making an industry bet, you aren't doing any kind of absolute or even relative valuation. Relatively it is expensive, absolutely it is incredibly expensive. You are making a sector bet that housing does better and USG is the most levered to the recovery in housing/homebuilding. This was a setup, you wanted me to bite. I get it. You got me, hook line and sinker.

Looked at buying CDS on USG as well. CDS would have been a better trade after the downgrade today. USG is a stock that has a possibility of going to 0.

What do you wrong(not write, get it) articles on, as far as I can tell you have either been blatantly wrong or lied throughout this entire thread...

Relative valuation? Why would a value investor do relative valuation.

AS for USG, it is simple. I need to know what you are looking at though. Articles I have done or jsut things in this thread? The US population is growing and homes eventually need to be replaced (fires, etc). Looking at industry data, we are about a year away (probably less) from USG selling more drywall for residential purposes. And it is actually selling drywall right now among other things (ceiling and floor coverings). Nope, no set up. USG is a simple company to understand.

USG will not go to zero. Buffett and Watsa have convertible debt. Enough that if converted, they will own about 40% of USG. It wouldn't take Buffett long to buy the company out. But Berkshire also owns most of Fairfax so it's more like saying that BRK has the potential to own 40% of USG. FWIW: My valuation considers the diluted share count.

DOP? Data Oriented Parsing? Umm, no. Annual reports, industry data, read a little bit about China drywall and a few of the competitors. The hardest thing about USG is that their largest competitor is private so you can't find out much about it.

Also, when valuing companies, I take the normal case. USG should produce $XXX normally in FCFs. I buy based on this. Eventually price will follow. I don't care when hte recovery is to occur that much. It will occur eventually. And if not, the US economy is going to have bigger problems.

1) I originally bought USG at $14. I figure it is worth about $30. It ran up to the high $24s. I sold in the low $24s. Then the markets fell and USG went with them so I bought back in at $17 (43% below my IV calc). I will consider buying more at $10 or I will not buy more (depending on cash/opportunities at the time).

2) I bought LEE in the high $3s. $3.80 maybe. I forget the exact number. I'll double up for $2 if it happens.

3) I also bought MEAD. In hindsight I wish I did not. It was a mistake. I don't knwo hte company well enough to buy it. And I don't know it's competition. It was an NCAV play. I should have just tried to get RSKIA for the low $4s if I wanted to do an NCAV play.

4) I mentioned JNJ. Easiest company on Earth to value behind PG. It's worth $90. Buffett paid $60 several years ago. Since then, FCF is up about 20-30%. When Buffett bought, he would not have paid $60 unless he sees it worth $80 or more ($60 being a 25% discount). He probably sees it as being worth $100 or more though. But, if you consider the free cash flows that JNJ will in all likelihood throw off for the next 50 years, it is easy to understand why he might have simply paid a fair price for a wonderful company. meaning $60 is a fair price. Much like how much he paid for BNI.

5) KFT is undervalued but I will not buy till the CEO is canned. She has no idea what she is doing.

If JNJ is not worth $90-$100 like you say, I need to ask why you say this. If I am wrong, you mus be right. And if you are right, you must have valued the company.

 

[JS80]

Please enlighten us, why do you think LEE is "worth" $20? Looks like the equity piece is worth $0.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

GAAP is crap but it is the best we have.

If you hate GAAP you are really going to hate IFRS much less transparent and fair value is going to drive you nuts. GAAP is rules based, IFRS is principals based.

Welcome to freshman year of any university. Do you teach business to kids that aren't even in the major?

5-10%? Is that a fact. Cool.

The valuation reports for PG average 61 pages with a median of 63 of the 6 I looked at before I left work, can you value it in two sentences for us? You are much smarter and know much more so I am sure you will get it right! The people that have senior management on their speed dials and fly out to meetings and actually going to shareholders meetings as well as having much more sophisticated valuation models know nothing compared to you!

If your time horizon is 50 years I am sure you may be able to invest in many companies and make money. Others need to pay money out before that time horizon and can't wait for inflation to raise the share price over the long term.

Your only talent is insulting people that are smarter than you. (Welcome to freshman year of any university. Do you teach business to kids that aren't even in the major?)

Wow, 6 reports on PG! All with an IV calc near current quote. Can't say it is to shocking. I'm sure if PG falls to $50, they'll have IV "adjusted". WOW! Do you know what groupthink is? Listen, nothing you just said impressed me. Seriously, read up about groupthink. You might learn something about the psychology of misjudgment.

So, what you are saying is that you don't know how to value PG and you can only read what others say? So, I am wrong about JNJ not because of your own work but because of what others have said?

Do you remember what i have previously stated? It is better to be approximately right than precisely wrong. It is hilarious that you geniuses are all precisely wrong about PG and I am guessing JNJ. Seriously, it is called groupthink. Read up on it.

Pull out the past 10 years of "reports" on PG. And comapre these reports to current quotation. then report back to everybody. You can use the concept of groupthink in that discussion. But you will not. You have an ego issue where you think you know more than everyone else.

And seriously, 6-9 month time horizons coupled with valuation is not value investing. It is guessing. My time horizon is 5 years. I think the lowest time horizon I have read about for an established value investor is 3 years.

Listen, you are not going to concede. It's clear that there is some sort of ego issue here. I've told you why JNJ is undervalued. It is a simple matter of projecting future free cash flows and discounting them. I am not going to concede either. But it would be nice for you to actually provide some reasoning. So let's both just give up. I think I am right because of expected future free cash flows. And you think I am wrong, well from what you have said so far, because you think I am wrong. I would like to hear your thoughts on PG or JNJ. But it is now apparent that this is just going to be the average idea of what others have told you (through reports).

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Please enlighten us, why do you think LEE is "worth" $20? Looks like the equity piece is worth $0.

I have to ask, what "equity piece" are you looking at?

It is free cash flow positive. It has been for the past 10 years. The industry is changing, not going extinct. The shift to technology is simply changing the method of content delivery.

I initially thought the same thing most people think about papers. The more I read the more I started to realize how the industry is not going away, it is simply evolving. My only real fear is that technology has to evolve with it.

Easier (at least Lothar appreciated this article somewhat):
http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=97850

Voxxy will report on Monday that I am wrong based on the thoughts of others that he has read about.

 

[JS80]

Highly leveraged, declining revenues, expensive ass union employees to deal with, unscalable business model, high fixed costs. The equity piece, aka the stock, is worth zero.

I bet the bonds are trading at 70c on the dollar.

I doubt some crackpot redneck management team in Iowa will be able to turn the business around. LOL integrating technology into it no less. They will be afraid to cannibalize their print advertising revenue and will delay deploying technology until they already have reached the tipping point.

I predict chapter 11 within 5 years which will wipe out equity and dick the bondholders. For recent case study see RH Donnelley (now Dex One DEXO) and Idearc (now Supermedia SPMD). Both are in print, both were highly leveraged, both recently filed chapter 11.

edit: skimmed over the 10-K. They don't have any corporate bonds. Looks like all term loans. The bulk due in 2012. I am not sure how they will refinance it, but bk looks less likely. They will probably have to do some kind of restructure though which in most cases will wipe out equity.

 

[The-Noid]

DOP is Days of Payables. I am sorry, it is not freshman in college it is senior in high school now.

It makes sense now, you bought USG because Berkshire got a better deal on a convert than you can get on the common.

Buffet has it all right.

You also have never said anything about how JNJ is undervalued. Your claim is that Buffet bought it at 60 and FCF(E,F?) is up 20-30% then (I like to work in absolutes not guesses, is it 20 or 30?).
So basically you take what someone else says, don't do the research and that is your reason that a company is undervalued. Makes a whole lot of sense.

JNJ is a fair value somewhere in the 65-67 over the next 12-18 months range based on current fundamentals, where we are in the quality cycle, the move away from riskier assets and relative valuation compared to where ratios were in the past.

Limits to this valuation are: continued downtrend in the global equity market, cross currency losses as JNJ has often said it does not hedge the majority of its currency exposures as they tend to offset over the long run (true, but in the short term the decline in the euro is going to hurt the bottom line) and a high dividend payout ratio which leads to a lower sustainable growth rate should ROE not increase at the predicted 12%, and also JNJ doing a expensive buyout which they overpay for in the short term but is probably beneficial long term.

Also covered USG at the open, you can view the lots in your trading software.

I have also never said I was a value investor. Value investing is dead. There are no loopholes anymore, there is no huge divergence from value. Unless you can take an ownership prospective and re-engineer how do you expect to change things with a measly position in a gigantic company? Bloomberg terms, Thomson One, 13-F's, Reg D, Reg FD killed value investing. As the government has tried to make everything more fair to small individual investor all they have done is make it is easier for the professionals to make money.

Also your story of USG is not that of a value investor. Sold, bought, sold, may buy again. That is a speculator. Contradictions, lies, stupid quotes. You are good for a lot.

 

[The-Noid]

Your only talent is insulting people that are smarter than you. (Welcome to freshman year of any university. Do you teach business to kids that aren't even in the major?)

Wow, 6 reports on PG! All with an IV calc near current quote. Can't say it is to shocking. I'm sure if PG falls to $50, they'll have IV "adjusted". WOW! Do you know what groupthink is? Listen, nothing you just said impressed me. Seriously, read up about groupthink. You might learn something about the psychology of misjudgment.

65-79 IV range is quote near current quote. Cool. I want to live in your world...

So, what you are saying is that you don't know how to value PG and you can only read what others say? So, I am wrong about JNJ not because of your own work but because of what others have said?

Do you remember what i have previously stated? It is better to be approximately right than precisely wrong. It is hilarious that you geniuses are all precisely wrong about PG and I am guessing JNJ. Seriously, it is called groupthink. Read up on it.

Good to know. Again, I want to live in your world. You stated nothing like that.

Pull out the past 10 years of "reports" on PG. And comapre these reports to current quotation. then report back to everybody. You can use the concept of groupthink in that discussion. But you will not. You have an ego issue where you think you know more than everyone else.

IV valuations do change, but not as often as you think. You really have never read a research report have you? Also, not more than everyone else there are many smart people on this board. Many have been completely right on RMBS, you have been completely wrong on everything. All you have done is provided an example of everything that is wrong in the industry and talked your own book, which is really Warren's book only he gets deals you can't.

And seriously, 6-9 month time horizons coupled with valuation is not value investing. It is guessing. My time horizon is 5 years. I think the lowest time horizon I have read about for an established value investor is 3 years.

Our definitions differ. That is great. I buy when my intrinsic valuation is different than the price of the stock. Once the valuation comes in line, I sell. If a stock is overpriced to my valuation I sell it or purchase derivatives on it.

Listen, you are not going to concede. It's clear that there is some sort of ego issue here. I've told you why JNJ is undervalued. It is a simple matter of projecting future free cash flows and discounting them. I am not going to concede either. But it would be nice for you to actually provide some reasoning. So let's both just give up. I think I am right because of expected future free cash flows. And you think I am wrong, well from what you have said so far, because you think I am wrong. I would like to hear your thoughts on PG or JNJ. But it is now apparent that this is just going to be the average idea of what others have told you (through reports).

I would love to concede that you are correct. Please provide any kind of factual evidence to what you say. Everything you have said is conjecture or an opinion of someone else.

I will make this statement right here. If JNJ goes to 100 in the next 5 years (and we don't have runaway inflation, one caveat), I will cut my own penis off, whip myself in the head as many times as I can and video tape my impeding death for everyone to see.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Yoxxy,

I was going to write a long winded response. Instead:

1) You admittedly have not an single independent thought in your head. All you have is the thoughts of others. reports. Those things that suffer from groupthink.
2) You don't know what groupthink is or care to learn about what it is. Not to shocking since your education seems to have stopped when you graduated. Perhaps this is some sort of groupthink related issue where you work. Do your coworkers also insist on not evolving mentally? That is, no one expands their knowledge base.
3) You should not be giving others advice since you can not think for yourself. You have no idea what JNJ or PG is worth. All you have is the conclusion that someone else thought up. Stating an IV from what others have stated and pasting a single paragraph into a text window does not prove your intelligence. It proves you lack thereof.

If you need to learn through education (as you seem to be hooked on), I recommend that you apply to Columbia University. You've heard of that school right? They teach investment there, the Graham and Dodd way.

Cash flows in minus cash flows out. It really is that simple. If you do not agree, I need you to explain CDs to me, the Voxxy way.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Wow,

You really are a dream case for psychologists. I'm done. I've never seen someone brag about not having independent thoughts (being dependent upon reports) and then tell others that they don't have independent thoughts. What's worse, is that you are just using what I said about you and threw it back at me (the independent thought thing). Do you even realize that you are doing this?

In closing. I'll keep things at your level. I know you are but what am I. And I'm rubber your glue, everything you ... ahhh, forget it.

You don't know what value investing is. That's fine. Just stop telling other people your thoughts when your toolbox has only a hammer in it. Get your knife ready. FYI: review JNJs balance sheet. Oh, sorry. Have an analyst read it for you so you can have an opinion. FWIW: If your penis is as big as your e-penis, men everywhere are going to be upset. I'll be sure to PM you when JNJ breaks $100. How about a mediator takes $500 from each of us and winner takes all!

Those JNJ options started at 20 cents and went up to about 60 cents before dropping to about 15 cents right now. I exited at 30 cents. But at one point it went up 200%. Really, you are to stupid to know that you are stupid. The people that are frequently trading RMBS are going to underperform the markets over the long term. 10,20,30 years. The traders hall of fame consists of an empty room for a reason. And one day RMBS is going to drop, people will buy and it will keep dropping. Or visa versa. Don't worry, you are obviously a green investor. You'll see how things work eventually. Or you could read about Mungers prescription for misery. Ooop, wait that would be expanding ones knowledge base. Sorry for insulting you with that whole enlightenment thing. Didn't mean to step on toes.

 

[The-Noid]

Yoxxy,

I was going to write a long winded response. Instead:

1) You admittedly have not an single independent thought in your head. All you have is the thoughts of others. reports. Those things that suffer from groupthink.
2) You don't know what groupthink is or care to learn about what it is. Not to shocking since your education seems to have stopped when you graduated. Perhaps this is some sort of groupthink related issue where you work. Do your coworkers also insist on not evolving mentally? That is, no one expands their knowledge base.
3) You should not be giving others advice since you can not think for yourself. You have no idea what JNJ or PG is worth. All you have is the conclusion that someone else thought up. Stating an IV from what others have stated and pasting a single paragraph into a text window does not prove your intelligence. It proves you lack thereof.

If you need to learn through education (as you seem to be hooked on), I recommend that you apply to Columbia University. You've heard of that school right? They teach investment there, the Graham and Dodd way.

Cash flows in minus cash flows out. It really is that simple. If you do not agree, I need you to explain CDs to me, the Voxxy way.

I got into Columbia grad school. IMO the MSF program is better at cal where I graduated. We can debate that whenever you would like. Cash is worthless in this case. If we bet I would just buy 10c lottery tickets on jnj.

I haven't read a single report on jnj. All those thoughts are from looking at Thomson and reading the last 3 years annual reports and mda. My guess is my estimate is a bit closer to what other analyst opinions are than yours though.

 

[The-Noid]

Wow,

You really are a dream case for psychologists. I'm done. I've never seen someone brag about not having independent thoughts (being dependent upon reports) and then tell others that they don't have independent thoughts. What's worse, is that you are just using what I said about you and threw it back at me (the independent thought thing). Do you even realize that you are doing this?

In closing. I'll keep things at your level. I know you are but what am I. And I'm rubber your glue, everything you ... ahhh, forget it.

You don't know what value investing is. That's fine. Just stop telling other people your thoughts when your toolbox has only a hammer in it. Get your knife ready. FYI: review JNJs balance sheet. Oh, sorry. Have an analyst read it for you so you can have an opinion. FWIW: If your penis is as big as your e-penis, men everywhere are going to be upset. I'll be sure to PM you when JNJ breaks $100. How about a mediator takes $500 from each of us and winner takes all!

Those JNJ options started at 20 cents and went up to about 60 cents before dropping to about 15 cents right now. I exited at 30 cents. But at one point it went up 200%. Really, you are to stupid to know that you are stupid.

When you pump and dump it makes more sense to sell at 60c. Again this is speculation and not "value investing.". You really don't get it do you?

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

If I could recommend you one book, it would be "Seeking Wisdom: From Darwin to Munger"
http://www.amazon.com/Seeking-Wisdom.../dp/1578644283

I think that would be good for you to read. So, in all seriousness, what book would you recommend me?