Someone tell me why I'm dumb...?
It sounds to me like this should be a buying opportunity for DNDN. The CMS review does not remove coverage of provenge by medicare; it doesn't change way coverage decisions would be made for provenge in any way. I guess now there is increased risk that provenge will be shut down in the future, but it is FDA-approved after all...
So unless there's some indirect effect where the review causes patients/doctors to steer clear of provenge, isn't DNDN still going to make money (in the near term)? It seems like the kind of review being conducted by the CMS will take quite some amount of time, since they're effectively asking for "user feedback" on whether you're having strokes.
EDIT: on that note, does this action by the CMS signal a general policy shift on new, novel drugs? I mean they claim there's the potential for increased incidence of stroke, but given how little time has passed since fda-approval, presumably they're operating on the same info. So shouldn't the FDA have caught on to this if there's a real problem? e.g., should I be afraid that (assuming benelysta gets FDA approval), CMS will open some sort of investigation with HGSI too?
EDIT2: Looks like analysts agree? (for what that's worth, lol) http://notablecalls.blogspot.com/2010/07/dendreon-nasdaqdndn-colour-on-cms-news.html
The after market low of $24.74 for DNDN yesterday was mighty tempting at the time.
I agree the CMS thing is overblown, they have a temporary J-code to sell before then. However, with the overall market weakness, Provenge production supply constrain this year, heavy insider selling, any blip of bad news will allow the bears to seize control of the stock for a short while.