***Official*** 2010 Stock Market Thread

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routan

Senior member
Sep 12, 2010
837
0
0
The no news is what scared me. I've seen this before where it shoots up on the anticipation of news, and then nothing comes. These lawsuits are going to take a while. If it drops again, I'll probably jump back in. I guaranteed myself a nice profit though - now I just need to quit watching it

lol. same here. I tried getting call options, but never hit my target. I think I'll jump in some puts today. Another 6% gain.
 

outsidethebox

Junior Member
Oct 18, 2010
8
0
0
I find this pretty amazing. From CNNMoney http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Small...3.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=

Kleintop said a whopping $53 billion has come out of mutual funds that invest in U.S. stocks since May 6, when a faulty trading algorithm caused the Dow Jones industrial average to plunge nearly 1,000 points before regaining its composure.

There hasn't been as big of gain in the stock market in such a short period of time without net inflows into stock funds and equity exchange traded funds in a quarter century, research from LPL Financial showed Tuesday.
 

lothar

Diamond Member
Jan 5, 2000
6,674
7
76
WFC is undervalued along with a lot of banks. Just find quality first when buying.
Besides WFC, any other banks on your radar?

BAC just came back on my radar due to it hitting a 52week low, but I'm waiting to see what Paulson and Berkowitz do first.

This whole thing is certainly interesting...They are being attacked left by state attorney generals who are trying to make a career for themselves, and on the right by other Wall St. firms and the NY Fed.
 

JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
Besides WFC, any other banks on your radar?

BAC just came back on my radar due to it hitting a 52week low, but I'm waiting to see what Paulson and Berkowitz do first.

This whole thing is certainly interesting...They are being attacked left by state attorney generals who are trying to make a career for themselves, and on the right by other Wall St. firms and the NY Fed.

I would consider this strategy as the BAC "problem" fades away http://www.fatwallet.com/forums/finance/962217/m15260670/#m15260670
 
Sep 29, 2004
18,665
67
91
Besides WFC, any other banks on your radar?

BAC just came back on my radar due to it hitting a 52week low, but I'm waiting to see what Paulson and Berkowitz do first.

This whole thing is certainly interesting...They are being attacked left by state attorney generals who are trying to make a career for themselves, and on the right by other Wall St. firms and the NY Fed.

I would not touch BAC with a ten foot pole. the culture there is messed up as far as I am concerned.

I own USB and WFC. I've run accross some smaller banks that I'd buy but don't recall what ones. This was months ago (6-12 maybe) that I was looking at banks. USB and WFC are enough for me. They are of quality that if they go under, that the US would have much bigger problems. EFC is worth $45-$50 in my opinion. Higher inflation rates (disguised as this thing called QE for political reasons) just mean I am undersestimating. QE is the funniest term I have ever heard of. Don't call it dollar devaulation, call it "easing" and the docile masses will be happy.

I wish it were 1-2 years ago though. I wanted to back up the truck for WFC when it was under $10 but the wife would not allow me. It dropped to about $9 in March 2009. I was telling myself that at $4-$6 I would borrow/buy without any consent of my wife. Never got there though. I wish I dumped everything and bought WFC in hindsight. Jsut didn't have the bravery to go 100% a bank at the time. I did go 25% WFC though.

If you are bored, take a look at USG (floor/ceiling/wall coverings).

Most recently, I bought LEE. Speculators will laugh at LEE, but I read alot on the industry when I bought and havea firm belief that people forget what nespapers are all about. The moat is still there! Also, what utility newspapers serve along with how emerging technology like the iPad is goign to change things to the benefit of small newspapers in my opinion. People will pay a few bucks a month to get the lcoal news on their iPad. Just like how The Jetsons demonstrated it Besides, even now, LEE is generating cash like a hooker at a whore house. The future growth assumptions are questionable but given valuation I don't think it matters. Fact is, over 50% of the population still reads a local news article each week, even if just redirected to it via a google search.
 
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JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
I would not touch BAC with a ten foot pole. the culture there is messed up as far as I am concerned.

I own USB and WFC. I've run accross some smaller banks that I'd buy but don't recall what ones. This was months ago (6-12 maybe) that I was looking at banks. USB and WFC are enough for me. They are of quality that if they go under, that the US would have much bigger problems. EFC is worth $45-$50 in my opinion. Higher inflation rates (disguised as this thing called QE for political reasons) just mean I am undersestimating. QE is the funniest term I have ever heard of. Don't call it dollar devaulation, call it "easing" and the docile masses will be happy.

I wish it were 1-2 years ago though. I wanted to back up the truck for WFC when it was under $10 but the wife would not allow me. It dropped to about $9 in March 2009. I was telling myself that at $4-$6 I would borrow/buy without any consent of my wife. Never got there though. I wish I dumped everything and bought WFC in hindsight. Jsut didn't have the bravery to go 100% a bank at the time. I did go 25% WFC though.

If you are bored, take a look at USG (floor/ceiling/wall coverings).

Most recently, I bought LEE. Speculators will laugh at LEE, but I read alot on the industry when I bought and havea firm belief that people forget what nespapers are all about. The moat is still there! Also, what utility newspapers serve along with how emerging technology like the iPad is goign to change things to the benefit of small newspapers in my opinion. People will pay a few bucks a month to get the lcoal news on their iPad. Just like how The Jetsons demonstrated it Besides, even now, LEE is generating cash like a hooker at a whore house. The future growth assumptions are questionable but given valuation I don't think it matters. Fact is, over 50% of the population still reads a local news article each week, even if just redirected to it via a google search.

At $4 you'd be shitting bricks afraid WFC would go under.
 
Sep 29, 2004
18,665
67
91
At $4 you'd be shitting bricks afraid WFC would go under.

The only thing that stopped me was my wife at $9 because she was afraid. At $4, I would have loaded up. Trust me, the last thing I was, was afraid. I didn't put 25% of my money in WFC at $14 for no reason. my only regret is not buying at $10.
 

JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
Most recently, I bought LEE. Speculators will laugh at LEE, but I read alot on the industry when I bought and havea firm belief that people forget what nespapers are all about. The moat is still there! Also, what utility newspapers serve along with how emerging technology like the iPad is goign to change things to the benefit of small newspapers in my opinion. People will pay a few bucks a month to get the lcoal news on their iPad. Just like how The Jetsons demonstrated it Besides, even now, LEE is generating cash like a hooker at a whore house. The future growth assumptions are questionable but given valuation I don't think it matters. Fact is, over 50% of the population still reads a local news article each week, even if just redirected to it via a google search.

The problem with LEE is not the cash flow they are generating, it's their leverage. The enterprise value is currently 7x EBITDA. With newspaper readership declining, it's a race to pay down debt.

Plus, the iPad will cannibalize their revenue. Print advertising is very expensive and migration to digital will take huge hits to the bottom line. Print costs are high due to high fixed costs and it's expensive to generate salaried content (reporters are expensive).

For the last 5 years I was in online advertising and was acquired by a print advertising company. The situation was very similar with the parent print company having very high levels of unsustainable debt. They eventually filed for bankruptcy.
 

JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
The only thing that stopped me was my wife at $9 because she was afraid. At $4, I would have loaded up. Trust me, the last thing I was, was afraid. I didn't put 25% of my money in WFC at $14 for no reason. my only regret is not buying at $10.

Hindsight is 20/20...I think if you pulled the trigger you would have had sleepless nights wondering if the gov't would nationalize the banks and your investment goes to zero and you'd have to tell your wife.
 

Demo24

Diamond Member
Aug 5, 2004
8,357
9
81
It did move it, some. However it's had a bit of a run up so it was sorta priced in. Was smoking in AH last night though! The problem is it's a bit top heavy at the moment and it would be healthier if it pulled back some, I'm not holding my breath for it though. If the market goes rather red then I'd expect it to do the same.
 
Sep 29, 2004
18,665
67
91
The problem with LEE is not the cash flow they are generating, it's their leverage. The enterprise value is currently 7x EBITDA. With newspaper readership declining, it's a race to pay down debt.

Plus, the iPad will cannibalize their revenue. Print advertising is very expensive and migration to digital will take huge hits to the bottom line. Print costs are high due to high fixed costs and it's expensive to generate salaried content (reporters are expensive).

For the last 5 years I was in online advertising and was acquired by a print advertising company. The situation was very similar with the parent print company having very high levels of unsustainable debt. They eventually filed for bankruptcy.

Your forgetting that they are moving into digital spaces, including the kindle. Local news media is not dieing, it is morphing. The moat is still there ... the reporters on the ground.

The debt load at Lee is managable. FCF will probably improve as the economy turns and revs from classified ads improves. The ultimate backstop is the US governemnt who hinted at the fact that for the purposes of historical records that if needed, newpapers would be helped out.
 

richardycc

Diamond Member
Apr 29, 2001
5,719
1
81
buy as much as GGP as you can, they will be out of bankrupcy within weeks..my target is $30-40/share, or might get bought out within the next 2yrs.
 

JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
Your forgetting that they are moving into digital spaces, including the kindle. Local news media is not dieing, it is morphing. The moat is still there ... the reporters on the ground.

The debt load at Lee is managable. FCF will probably improve as the economy turns and revs from classified ads improves. The ultimate backstop is the US governemnt who hinted at the fact that for the purposes of historical records that if needed, newpapers would be helped out.

I was in the industry for 5 years. I can tell you that print margins are very high, and migration to digital space will cannibalize their revenue, reduce gross margins, and they will be unable to service their debt and pay their staff.

Unfortunately revenues from classifieds will not go up. It will continue to dwindle as advertising budgets continue to flow into digital. The revenue model I had built for my previous employer had a 10% revenue decline per year, and we all knew that was aggressive. The more likely scenario was 20% decline, in which case the company would go bankrupt again in 2-3 years.

Like I said, I have direct experience in online advertising and print, and both after the merger at the detailed finance level as a director.
 
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