***Official*** 2010 Stock Market Thread

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iGas

Diamond Member
Feb 7, 2009
6,240
1
0
For those of you that likes to dabble in the pennies market, ACTC has been approved for phase 1 and 2 multi-center testing, concurrently. This company has a real market of ~30BN with no competitor (and that's just one of their product research). The only reservation is that they have over 1BN shares... But regardless, I suspect this will be a huge pop once the testing data comes back, which will be in about a year. So far, no negative side affects.

10,000 shares only cost you $1300 which is a small amount most people is not going to lose any sleep over if it go down to 0. However, OTC stocks are off limit to me since my bank (Canadian brokerage) doesn't deal with them.
 
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SSSnail

Lifer
Nov 29, 2006
17,461
82
86
10,000 shares only cost you $1300 which is a small amount most people is not going to lose any sleep over if it go down to 0. However, OTC stocks are off limit to me since my bank (Canadian brokerage) doesn't deal with them.
That's odd, brokerage will take your money and place the orders for you. Even my company won't touch pennies or recommending pennies to clients, they don't stop me from buying them. It's my money, I can do whatever the hell I want with it, as long as it's reported properly.
 

Demo24

Diamond Member
Aug 5, 2004
8,357
9
81
Csco is finally turning around after plummeting from reduced guidance after earnings, and then mostly 'blah' market conditions for the past couple of weeks. It got an upgrade today so that sorta kick started it's return. It should get back into the 20's here soon enough. I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit 20 tomorrow on a green day, might not get there on a red though.


Btw, the housing sector is providing some fun flips for those interested. I'm currently messing with KBH but looking to exit tomorrow should it hit 13 (and I think it has a good chance). It's a pretty up/down stock so you gotta be careful with this one. Could also be a potentially good long term play if you wanna wait until housing recovers in a few years, god knows how long that will take though. Another to watch here in BZH. It's cheaper than KBH, but seems to sorta follow it proportionally. I don't play it at the moment, but I might in the future. One problem I've noticed is option volume seems to be sorta low on these so you might have trouble buying/selling, especially if you eek too close to expiration.
 

lothar

Diamond Member
Jan 5, 2000
6,674
7
76
Borders is probably going to by B&N. That is a good thing for them both. Some consolodation can occur with the brick and mortar locations.

finviz.com. That's interesting. I am doing some side work for someone to write a similar screener.

I'll try to give BAMM and GRVY a look later on today. Have you look through annual reports, etc for them?

I think products like the Kindle are going to reshape print media. The thing is, the product itself is the text, not the paper book or newspaper. The content is hte sam,e the delivery mechanism is just changing. It has taking technology about 10 years (the internet age) to get electronic books right. Newspapers are moving subscriptions to things like the Kindle. Jsut in the test phase now but sounds like a winner.
Been using finviz.com for over a year now...Once I look there and don't like the numbers I see there, I just move on unless I really want to take a second look. Takes only a few minutes. Only thing missing on there is P/OE which I rely more so than P/E...At least P/FCF is there as well which is good.

Yes to BAMM, no to GRVY.
I've only read the past quarterly report for GRVY.

You have an excellent point about the actual product being the text.
I don't know about you, but a lot of eBooks I saw were either the same price or more expensive than their paperbacks. Why would anyone pay the same or more for an eBook with DRM that will only allow you to read on the particular device downloaded from and nothing else over a physical textbook?
Apple store has increased the prices on eBooks, and publishers have already forced Amazon's hand to follow suit.
I think it's possible for Amazon, Borders/Books-A-Million/Barnes & Noble to coexist...for now in the near term.
Similar to how newspapers are moving to online subscriptions or free registration to access content, those B&M book stores are also selling eBooks online.

I find rumors of the ultimate disappearance of physical books to be greatly exaggerated.
BAMM looks like it might provide enough margin of safety in case things don't work out.

I took a look over BAMM. Only about 5 minutes. Per my previous Kindle related comment, I just don't see this busienss model as being viable long term. Paper back book stores will always be around, I just don't want to guess at who the winnes will be. My guess is Borders and B&N though. I think the content producers are the way to go if they are beaten down right now.
Barnes and Noble is worth more than Bill Ackman's $16 low ball offer.
Bill Ackman(being the snake that he is) is essentially trying to get the company on the cheap to save Borders...It's their only hope.
Hopefully Barnes & Noble shareholders would reject his offer.
Given how the Barnes & Noble founder and chairman inserted a poison pill provision and made Ron Burkle lose in his attempt on getting a board seat, I wouldn't be surprised to see either a second offer from Ackman or an outright rejection by the Barnes & Noble founder/chairman.

My guess also is if what analysts are predicting about books were to come true, Borders will absolutely be the first to go...WELL before Books-A-Million. Barnes & Noble may very well be the last one standing due to their eBook presence.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
Csco is finally turning around after plummeting from reduced guidance after earnings, and then mostly 'blah' market conditions for the past couple of weeks. It got an upgrade today so that sorta kick started it's return. It should get back into the 20's here soon enough. I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit 20 tomorrow on a green day, might not get there on a red though.

I've been peaking at CSCO since the meltdown, but just don't know what the hell they do, so don't want to be involved. Still a bit too much risk for my liking.

AC.A looks like a good long. Very slow to move though; I like to couple days-trade.
 

lothar

Diamond Member
Jan 5, 2000
6,674
7
76
I'll try to give BAMM and GRVY a look later on today. Have you look through annual reports, etc for them?
I seem to like GRVY more than BAMM even though I've spent less than 2 days on the stock. With DCF, I see this stock being worth at least $3-4. NNWC and NCAV values don't look too bad as well...Looks like I'm not going to get much sleep tonight. :wub:
 

iGas

Diamond Member
Feb 7, 2009
6,240
1
0
The entire list of over 30 stocks that I watch on the TSX is down except for one (GCE) and I happened to hold on to it as the only one in my portfolio at the moment.

<----- 90&#37; of my money is in cash at the moment, because I'm waiting to jump back into the market next week when every thing down by 4~5%.
 

lothar

Diamond Member
Jan 5, 2000
6,674
7
76
I meant DRYS. what do u think?
*Shakes head* "I have no idea."

That is the response I give(which is usually about 90+% of the time) when people ask me about a stock I know nothing about or that I've only looked at for 5 minutes and don't intend to waste my own time to research further.

Based on what I see from looking at the company description, the company location, stock ratios on FinViz, and running my DCF/EPV along with Financial Statement analysis Excel programs(which only takes 30 seconds each to run), I don't see anything that would warrant me taking a second look and reading hundreds of pages of quarterly/annual reports and other documents.
The company has had negative FCF and Owner Earnings the majority of the past decade.
In conclusion: The company isn't generating cash for it's shareholders.

All in all, probably took about 5 minutes or so.
Now to turn the question around to you since I've answered your question...What do YOU think?
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,214
3,632
126
I'm out of ideas of where I want my taxable account money. My wife and I will keep putting in $49000 per year into long-term retirement accounts (401k + IRA + HSA). But I just don't see any great buying opportunities for the leftover funds in the taxable account. I'm not one to buy individual stocks as I don't have the time to keep up with them. Mutual stock funds are almost universally high, so they don't look like good buys. Bonds and TIPS are netting very little, unless I go with something like Greek bonds. REITs, gold, oil, etc are all high.

So, I'm thinking about more unusual (for me) things. What do you think about shorting gold. I'm thinking about buying DZZ or GLL.
 

lothar

Diamond Member
Jan 5, 2000
6,674
7
76
I'm out of ideas of where I want my taxable account money. My wife and I will keep putting in $49000 per year into long-term retirement accounts (401k + IRA + HSA). But I just don't see any great buying opportunities for the leftover funds in the taxable account. I'm not one to buy individual stocks as I don't have the time to keep up with them. Mutual stock funds are almost universally high, so they don't look like good buys. Bonds and TIPS are netting very little, unless I go with something like Greek bonds. REITs, gold, oil, etc are all high.

So, I'm thinking about more unusual (for me) things. What do you think about shorting gold. I'm thinking about buying DZZ or GLL.
While gold is most certainly a bubble, I don't short stocks.
No matter how bad I think the particular company or security issue may be, I never short it.

Before you dabble into commodities, read this.
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_31/b4189050970461.htm
 

KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,401
386
126
The entire list of over 30 stocks that I watch on the TSX is down except for one (GCE) and I happened to hold on to it as the only one in my portfolio at the moment.

<----- 90% of my money is in cash at the moment, because I'm waiting to jump back into the market next week when every thing down by 4~5%.

You think the market will lose 400 - 500 pts next week? I don't see that happening unless they can't get the tax reduction bill passed. I think you will miss out on the holiday optimism. If you are right you will make a killing. Good luck.
 

SandEagle

Lifer
Aug 4, 2007
16,813
13
0
*Shakes head* "I have no idea."

That is the response I give(which is usually about 90+% of the time) when people ask me about a stock I know nothing about or that I've only looked at for 5 minutes and don't intend to waste my own time to research further.

Based on what I see from looking at the company description, the company location, stock ratios on FinViz, and running my DCF/EPV along with Financial Statement analysis Excel programs(which only takes 30 seconds each to run), I don't see anything that would warrant me taking a second look and reading hundreds of pages of quarterly/annual reports and other documents.
The company has had negative FCF and Owner Earnings the majority of the past decade.
In conclusion: The company isn't generating cash for it's shareholders.

All in all, probably took about 5 minutes or so.
Now to turn the question around to you since I've answered your question...What do YOU think?

Based on what you just said, I will stay away from it.
 
Sep 29, 2004
18,665
67
91
Hey lothar,

I have to revisit our discussion above later but I was wondering if I mentioned Sandridge Energy before (SD)? I see them as a beneficiary of higher oil prices. Even if it takes 10 years for this to occur, buying now gives investors time to win out.

Anyway, I almost sold JNJ and PG 1-2 months ago to move the money into LEE and SD when they were at lower prices. Still kicking myself that I didn't. I was basically waiting for either to drop 20&#37; more. Got to greedy I guess. I own both but wanted to dollar cost average. Well, I was happy with my holdings yesterday and there is no reason not to be happy tomorrow.

If there are any metrics that you would like to see in a screener, let me know. P/FCF will be included. I would like to get price relative to the 5 year FCF avg in there but that is TBD. That data is not calculated at gurufocus.com right now so I'd have to ask the owner to add it to the database.... which is very probable. Any stocks less than 5 years old would be dropped from the results though.

If you like FCF, check this out (consider it an idea generator):
http://www.gurufocus.com/dcfFCF.php
If you do not login, you only get a small sample of results. If you register (free) I think you get the full result set. Not sure if the full results are limited to pay-for subscribers though. To tired to check. Give it a whirl though.


EDIT: It says that you need to be a premium member ($250 or $300 a year) to get the full result set. Or you can write articles. You make about $15 per article typically. 5 articles a month gives you a premium membership. I help out with the site so he gave me a membership for free. As for articles, I find it a good way to organize my thoughts. It's just that it motivates me to do so and I then get paid for it. You'd be good at writing articles I think.
 
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Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
You think the market will lose 400 - 500 pts next week? I don't see that happening unless they can't get the tax reduction bill passed. I think you will miss out on the holiday optimism. If you are right you will make a killing. Good luck.

I think we're still in the first half of a rally, so give it a few more days of fluctuations and my bet will be on a slow correction (Dow down to 1100-ish). Made the mistake of staying in the last time it all went down a few weeks back, lost over a grand in earnings.

Speaking of, I've been way too save the past 2 weeks. Bought JPM and old it when I was only up $200; if I sold today, I'd be up $800. Also, I was considering buying Lululemon, but didn't. Sucker went up 20% the past 2 days. Not diversifying enough right now.
 
Sep 29, 2004
18,665
67
91
Been using finviz.com for over a year now...Once I look there and don't like the numbers I see there, I just move on unless I really want to take a second look. Takes only a few minutes. Only thing missing on there is P/OE which I rely more so than P/E...At least P/FCF is there as well which is good.

If you tell me what OE is, I can try getting it into the new gurufocus screener that is coming (in a few months)
 

lothar

Diamond Member
Jan 5, 2000
6,674
7
76
Hey lothar,

If there are any metrics that you would like to see in a screener, let me know. P/FCF will be included. I would like to get price relative to the 5 year FCF avg in there but that is TBD. That data is not calculated at gurufocus.com right now so I'd have to ask the owner to add it to the database.... which is very probable. Any stocks less than 5 years old would be dropped from the results though.

If you like FCF, check this out (consider it an idea generator):
http://www.gurufocus.com/dcfFCF.php
If you do not login, you only get a small sample of results. If you register (free) I think you get the full result set. Not sure if the full results are limited to pay-for subscribers though. To tired to check. Give it a whirl though.


EDIT: It says that you need to be a premium member ($250 or $300 a year) to get the full result set. Or you can write articles. You make about $15 per article typically. 5 articles a month gives you a premium membership. I help out with the site so he gave me a membership for free. As for articles, I find it a good way to organize my thoughts. It's just that it motivates me to do so and I then get paid for it. You'd be good at writing articles I think.

Lothar's important ratios:
Pretty much everything on the Finviz website minus the technical analysis parts such as 50/200 "daily moving averages" and such.
http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=jnj&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

And also, these...
FCF Growth: average over both a 5 and 10 year period is good.
CROIC: Same as above.
FCF yield: What formula will you use here? I generally use FCF/EV to be more conservative, but I also realize some people use FCF/Market cap. I prefer FCF/EV so if you're going to do FCF yield, use that otherwise I will gladly skip over it and do my own calculation.
FCF/Debt: Self explanatory? I use this to spot highly leveraged companies. It gives me an idea how many years it would take to pay down their debt with FCF.
FCF/Sales: Self explanatory?
P/OE: Price to Owner Earnings. I am disappointed many sites don't show this...I always have to calculate this myself. They always show P/E, rarely P/FCF, and never P/OE

Some of the articles on that site are pretty detailed and others are pretty completely useless. Ex: I don't waste my time reading articles from "Street Authority"(or it's members), and a few others.

I am still in the learning process reading and trying to better myself. Maybe in a year or two I will consider being a contributor.
Writing articles requires more than 5-10 minutes of research.
 

HopJokey

Platinum Member
May 6, 2005
2,110
0
0
SVU (Grocery/wholesale company)

Supervalue or Supervalutrap?

Great FCF, large debt, tons of competition, low price (market cap) vs. sales/FCF.

I dipped my feet a bit in this one, but it's definitely is risky.
 
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