***Official*** 2010 Stock Market Thread

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Sep 29, 2004
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Both ICO and BOLT I found with different screens.
SD, I found because you mentioned it about 4 months before I bought it and I looked to see who owned the shares.
NOV has been my favorite oil stock previously...It's only natural for me to visit them again if I am shopping in the energy sector.
NE? Not sure how I found it. I looked for companies that were in the gulf...It was between them and Ensco. I decided to go with NOV and NE instead of Ensco.

I'm a pharmacist.

How did they come up with those estimates? What price/barrel are they assuming to get those estimates? Would be nice to know.

Analyst dogma with current pricing of natural gas. I'm not sure if that includes oil.

Also,
I read the transcript from the recent Conference Call. I have to admit that I know less about the industry than I would like to think. There are alot of terms that I just don't understand, but it does seem learnable.

AS a side note, I am starting to find it difficult to find bargains these days.
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,312
2,101
126
LVS, at $50 just yesterday, is getting hammered. Looking for a downside of $42 or below near term, with a recovery when the bull market takes it back up.

In the meantime, the cheap puts are like candy. The $42 December put jumped up from $99 to $220 per contract in two days! May double to $400 if $42 hit soon.

I dont own the put, but Im a fan of making the call.

Almost 30 days later it played out like this (I watch LVS like a hawk): Instead of hitting $42 at my mid November prediction, it jumped back up from $45 to $51 and held there while the put evaporated in value to just $20.

Ever since then, LVS is the only major casino stock to fall so much the last week and half. It finally broached $42 today. You could have bought one $43 put for $29 just this morning and sold it for $160, a 221% return. Of course, trading options that expire in 48 hours is EXTREMELY risky, but Ive done it before.

Since I believe there is nothing fundamentally wrong with LVS, and is only consolidating due to temporary setbacks in developing future properties in Macau, I think it will retake $50 after the "January effect" takes place.

I dont own any stock or options in LVS.
 

lothar

Diamond Member
Jan 5, 2000
6,674
7
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Analyst dogma with current pricing of natural gas. I'm not sure if that includes oil.

Also,
I read the transcript from the recent Conference Call. I have to admit that I know less about the industry than I would like to think. There are alot of terms that I just don't understand, but it does seem learnable.

AS a side note, I am starting to find it difficult to find bargains these days.
Same here.

I see some people are discussing COCO, APOL, and ESI on Gurufocus(from Batbeer's articles and others) and other investing sites...Those stocks seem a bit risky IMO.
Even when I assumed 0-3% growth, those companies look very cheap. However there's no way to know if Education Secretary Arnie Duncan will pull the rug from the bottom of the "for-profit" college education's feet. If he does not, then those stocks will be a good buy.
If only I could be a fly on the wall in the Department of Education...

Only thing I bought was GRVY recently. I sold all my shares in KFT and used some of the proceeds to buy it.
I bought shares in 3 blocks at $1.53, and $1.569(or was it $1.579? I forgot...) and $1.58.
I'm sure WFC must have sent me the letter either today, or yesterday, I just never got the chance to open it yet.

Thursday will be a long day for me. Ugh...I have a 12 hour 9am-9pm shift tomorrow and a 9am-4pm shift on Friday.

When Ben Bernanke decides to keep interest rates steady at 0%, you must keep throwing money into the stock market otherwise you will get eaten alive by inflation.
I should be in bed now.
 
Sep 29, 2004
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Lothar,

I will defer to two Warren Buffet quotes. Not exact:

1) All you need is one very good idea each year.
2) said a few eyars ago so recent: If I were managing a smaller amount of money, say $1M, I think I could make 50% a year. No, I know I could.

I'll look into the stocks you mentioned (COCO, APOL, and ESI). I also think I am going to sell WFC if it is up a few percent today. I want to get $30.50+ even though I think it is worth $45+. I paid something like $14 for it so I can't complain. I wish Isold it at $32+ a few months ago but that is life. Atleast Idid sell USG in the mid $20s to rebuy at $17.
 
Sep 29, 2004
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Increased my MAS position today. Took my cost basis from the high $20s down to just about $20 by adding shares at $13 and change. I more than doubled my share count.

This change makes MAS my largest holding.

Looking to do something similar with GE, but the limit order has to be hit.
 

lothar

Diamond Member
Jan 5, 2000
6,674
7
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Increased my MAS position today. Took my cost basis from the high $20s down to just about $20 by adding shares at $13 and change. I more than doubled my share count.

This change makes MAS my largest holding.


Looking to do something similar with GE, but the limit order has to be hit.
What do you see in MAS that you would make it your largest holding?

Yeah, NFLX is overrated...Probably not worth more than $70, but I don't short stocks.
WY? I don't see anything special about it. None of the gurus I follow are into the stock. I have only one stock that deals with construction/housing and I would rather keep it that way.
 
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TheBDB

Diamond Member
Jan 26, 2002
3,176
0
0
I'm trying to figure out a more analytical way to decide when to sell stocks and take the profit. There has to be some sort of balance between what you are expecting (or hoping) the stock price will do and being satisfied with making money. The other goal I see would be to beat the S&P 500, because if you aren't at least doing that what is the point.

Anyone want to share their thoughts on when to sell and how to judge success?
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
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Anyone doing anything with BBY? They've taken a bit of a tumble recently.

Looks like they'll bottom out around 31/32 before recovering somewhat. Then it'll probably keep going down for a while.

I'm interested, but going to be patient.
 
Sep 29, 2004
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What do you see in MAS that you would make it your largest holding?

Yeah, NFLX is overrated...Probably not worth more than $70, but I don't short stocks.
WY? I don't see anything special about it. None of the gurus I follow are into the stock. I have only one stock that deals with construction/housing and I would rather keep it that way.

MAS is not hte best company but at the same time it is not the worst. It is a financially sound cyclical. The problem is moat. I have known about MAs for a long tiem and I simply do not see a moat.

Having said that. It has a market cap of $4.6B right now. It's FCFttm (trailing 12 months FCF) is $400M. Total long term debt is $4B. So, the debt to FCF seems a bit high. But this is a cyclical. I see housing related markets as improving over the next 5 years. I view MAS as having a normalized FCF in excess of $600M which makes elevitates most of my debt concerns. $600M is really a worst worst case type of estimate though. Total equity is in the $2B ball park.

So, with MAS, I see nomralized FCF at $600M+. The balance sheet is pretty good. And it trades with a $4.6B market cap. So the P/FCFnorm ratio is about 7.7. That is a 13% FCF yield.

My only regret is not buying for closer to $10 when I had the chance. I have the same regret about USG actually ..... that stupid 50% drop to dollar cost averag rule I used to have was the issue there.

I'm sitting on 20% cash right now. One limit order that might hit is GE at around $17. But I don't know if I want more GE stock.
 
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dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,214
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I'm trying to figure out a more analytical way to decide when to sell stocks and take the profit. There has to be some sort of balance between what you are expecting (or hoping) the stock price will do and being satisfied with making money. The other goal I see would be to beat the S&P 500, because if you aren't at least doing that what is the point.

Anyone want to share their thoughts on when to sell and how to judge success?
To me, that is the difficult part of investing. Buying seems to come naturally, selling is very difficult. Finding a stable company or mutual fund at a low price is fairly easy to do. I put in money at or near each of the market lows this year. For example, I put in $13k on July 2, 2010 (a local minimum) after watching the stock market drop 9 out of 10 days. The sad part was the $40k I put in 3 trading days earlier (after 6 out of 7 days dropping including some big, big drops) but still, that turned out to be quite a good buy. Buying low is easy to spot since the long term trend is up, you buy on the local dips and win.

Selling, on the other hand is very hard. The stock market is up 9 out of the last 10 days. But, those were only small gains and will it keep going up? The long term trend is to go up, so the probability is that eventually yes it will. So, sell today and take a 25% gain since the July purchase, or wait for more? Will I be waiting 3 days or 3 years or 3 decades? I have no clue. To me, that time is very hard to judge.

So, instead, unless someone has better advice, I use the age-old method. I choose a price to sell and wait for that price to hit. Then I sell. End of story.

For example, I will sell if I get 30% gain on those two purchases. I'm at 25% now. So, I'm not selling yet. What if the stock market falls? I'll just stay in until I get my 30%. What if it rises after I sell? I still met my goal and should be thrilled with a 30% gain.

The only minor exception is I won't sell until January at this point, since I'll be in a much lower tax bracket next year.
 
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Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
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To me, that is the difficult part of investing. Buying seems to come naturally, selling is very difficult. Finding a stable company or mutual fund at a low price is fairly easy to do. I put in money at or near each of the market lows this year. For example, I put in $13k on July 2, 2010 (a local minimum) after watching the stock market drop 9 out of 10 days. The sad part was the $40k I put in 3 trading days earlier (after 6 out of 7 days dropping including some big, big drops) but still, that turned out to be quite a good buy. Buying low is easy to spot since the long term trend is up, you buy on the local dips and win.

Selling, on the other hand is very hard. The stock market is up 9 out of the last 10 days. But, those were only small gains and will it keep going up? The long term trend is to go up, so the probability is that eventually yes it will. So, sell today and take a 25% gain since the July purchase, or wait for more? Will I be waiting 3 days or 3 years or 3 decades? I have no clue. To me, that time is very hard to judge.

So, instead, unless someone has better advice, I use the age-old method. I choose a price to sell and wait for that price to hit. Then I sell. End of story.

For example, I will sell if I get 30% gain on those two purchases. I'm at 25% now. So, I'm not selling yet. What if the stock market falls? I'll just stay in until I get my 30%. What if it rises after I sell? I still met my goal and should be thrilled with a 30% gain.

The only minor exception is I won't sell until January at this point, since I'll be in a much lower tax bracket next year.

I've only been trading for 2 months, and have run into the sell problem way too many times. Just in the past 2 weeks, I sold too early expecting a correction, and boom. My sold stocks went up an additional $700. Meanwhile, I put my money back into a losing stock and am now down $1500...

The pricing target should work okay, but it'll screw you if there's a sudden breakout due to some bullish news.

Buying on dips is what I've been doing, and it's worked out. However, I don't have the patience for it most of the time. Since I'm still fairly new to this, I'm still trying things out, and my approach du jour is to try to find dips, but go long overall. Just bought some AIG, they just started recovering and V. Markets will suck for the next week thanks to the holidays and low volume.
 

KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,401
386
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I'm sitting on 20% cash right now. One limit order that might hit is GE at around $17. But I don't know if I want more GE stock.

I don't think you will see GE at $17. The stock is in a good position to continue a trend upward as it has increased its dividended twice in a row, its GE capital unit has made a turnaround and is making larger profits and it has a plan to buy back stock. Now if its revenues miss estimates this quarter it may drop back down, but I don't think that it will miss.
 

richardycc

Diamond Member
Apr 29, 2001
5,719
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wow..this thread is dead.....anyway, last call to buy GGP at $15-16 before the 'wall of cash' from mutual funds move in.


General Growth Properties Announces Common Stock Dividend of 38cents..buy before monday to get it. Stock is at $15.88 post split now, that's like over $21 along with the HHC shares, which is at over $55/share now.
 
Sep 29, 2004
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Selling is only easy when you start by paying 50 cents for a dollar. This is what Lothar and I try to do.

If you are buying without know what you are paying for, that is your first mistake. Hope will not drive prices up over time. Only disciplined investing.


KB,
As for GE. You might be right. The thing is, GE is a company that I will sell once the price corrects and I will never go back. I'm not to worried about having hte shares I have or 2-3 times as many at a lower cost basis.
 

lothar

Diamond Member
Jan 5, 2000
6,674
7
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Any thoughts on Dean Foods Company (DF)?

A co-worker mentioned it. It's FCF is over $200M. Probably $250M+ normalized in terms of FCF. Not sure whath et issues are. It's credit rating sucks. And it's market cap is $1.5B. It does have more debt than I like to see which is a big issue.

DF at google finance

Annual reports:
http://www.deanfoods.com/our-company/investor-relations/financial-reporting.aspx

DF came up on my screener early last month(along with SVU) because I was looking for stocks that were down at least -25% for the year with >$1 billion in market cap.
I see that it has dropped even further.

Not sure what to think of DF...
SVU has more debt than DF, but DF cashflow is also rapidly decreasing...
What I don't understand is how/why they paid a "special" $15 dividend a few years ago by debt financing it.

Is DF a Value trap?
Overall, I'm still not sure what to think of DF, but I think I may prefer SVU to it since a former Wal-Mart exec is running the show over at SVU.
 
Sep 29, 2004
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I have to read soem DF annual reports. Could be a trap.

Well, SD is up again. I am now at about break even. Just kicking myself for not buying when it was close to $4. I have a funny feelign that if one bought at $4, that they could have a 10 bagger on their hands. I'll have to settle for a 2-5 bagger depending on when I sell.

As for SVU, I've read about it in the past and was not impressed.
 

richardycc

Diamond Member
Apr 29, 2001
5,719
1
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something is up with GNVC..it has been up since last week from mid 40cents to ~51cents now with no news.
 

SSSnail

Lifer
Nov 29, 2006
17,461
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I bought some LXK on the big dip was gonna dump it for a quick profit, had the chance but greed got the better of me and now I'm stuck. I know I will be able to get out of it with profits, but not soon. Should I just move on and take a loss now? Yeah, greed gets me every time.
 

routan

Senior member
Sep 12, 2010
837
0
0
why is no one in this thread interested in Vol plays? Volatility is at an unreal low. a play on VXX would be a nice strategy for (almost) guaranteed gain.

Also, the past recommendations of LVS burned me well. The options rose well, but then just crashed. Any chance of recovery to the 50ish target the few LVS followers said?
 
Sep 29, 2004
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Vol plays?

Why?

Because it is speculation. I'd rather invest my money intelgently rather than participate in a zero sum game.
 
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