***Official*** 2010 Stock Market Thread

[IHateMyJob2004]

Where do you see 20-25c? I see ask of 35c using Scottrade. Some bids of 16c but no one's taking that.

A bid in the middle will go through.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

What is so compelling about GNVC? Is this just speculation? I too ka look and it's a sea of red. Not a single year of positive free cash flow.

 

[KDKPSJ]

What is so compelling about GNVC? Is this just speculation? I too ka look and it's a sea of red. Not a single year of positive free cash flow.

Well, it's all speculation right now. And also, it's a development stage biotech company, which free cash flow theory wouldn't work anyway. Did HGSI or DNDN ever have any year with positive FCF?

 

[Regs]

What is so compelling about GNVC? Is this just speculation? I too ka look and it's a sea of red. Not a single year of positive free cash flow.

Growth potential, deepining pipeline, and key partnerships. There is a lot of confident speculation out there. The first interim analysis of GenVec’s Phase III pancreatic cancer trial with TNFerade looked pretty good though not statistically significant. Though there have been other treatments that passed FDA with similar or less stats and made it to market like Tarceva.

Growing biotech firms won't have free cash flows like JNJ. Growing firms with too much cash flow is actually a negative thing because that means they are actually not growing and using any money they are financing for their own debt or to line their pockets before declaring bankruptcy.

The important in GNVC's financials is their cash on hand and burn rate. GNVC has enough to see TNFerade through to the bloody end. TNFerade can also be used in other therapeutic indications like throat and esophageal cancer which can create an extra umbrella of safety to fall back on or create more revenue.

I'm not going to bull shit you, there is a high degree of risk in any bio-tech stock because gene-therapy does not exactly have a good record when it comes to passing FDA standards let alone becoming blockbuster marketable products for their intended patients.

 

[HopJokey]

Growth potential, deepining pipeline, and key partnerships. There is a lot of confident speculation out there. The first interim analysis of GenVec’s Phase III pancreatic cancer trial with TNFerade looked pretty good though not statistically significant. Though there have been other treatments that passed FDA with similar or less stats and made it to market like Tarceva.

Growing biotech firms won't have free cash flows like JNJ. Growing firms with too much cash flow is actually a negative thing because that means they are actually not growing and using any money they are financing for their own debt or to line their pockets before declaring bankruptcy.

The important in GNVC's financials is their cash on hand and burn rate. GNVC has enough to see TNFerade through to the bloody end. TNFerade can also be used in other therapeutic indications like throat and esophageal cancer which can create an extra umbrella of safety to fall back on or create more revenue.

I'm not going to bull shit you, there is a high degree of risk in any bio-tech stock because gene-therapy does not exactly have a good record when it comes to passing FDA standards let alone becoming blockbuster marketable products for their intended patients.

Good analysis.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

everydae and regs,

Ya, I guess it is still pure speculation.

JNJ can still grow shareholder value. Don't worry about that. Consider Procter & Gamble which has been a Dow component since 1932. That's nearly 80 years of growth for a company that has always been one of the largest ones out there.

 

[Azurik]

I'm not sure what GNVC will do - I don't know too much about the company and it's an early developmental bio-company that is too new for me to research more into.

My biggest holding outside of RMBS right now is DNDN. Ever since it got the green light last year, it went from $3 to the current price of $35. If it passes FDA with flying colors in May I think the stock will approach $50-$60+ and eventually become the new Amgen. They are rapidly building production centers around the United States - a friend of mine actually saw an unmarked trailer with DNDN stickers on the outside of the boxes that were contained in the trucks.

My guess is that they will own the sales and marketing in the US and will find a partner for the ROW (rest of world).

I was going to buy May options for the decision, but they are wayyyyyy overpriced, on both sides. There is huge bets going on right now. Opted for more shares instead.

 

[Dubb]

I don't believe that GNVC is as speculative as some would have it. it's certainly a risk - but there are strong arguments in it's favor:

1.) TNF alpha has a deep research history going back almost a decade. We know it works. That just leaves the effectiveness of the TNFerade delivery system (which is novel) and risks of toxicity (which the delivery system appears designed to avoid).

2.) Pancreatic cancer is serious business. Minor issues that would sink a drug to manage minor or chronic illness are pretty easily overlooked when the std. of care for PC doesn't do a whole lot to keep people alive longer. They're tying to give patients a few more months on the planet - side effects would have to be severe to outweigh benefits (if there are shown to be benefits)

3) Their partnerships and pipeline minimize the risk, depending on where you bought in at. An FDA rejection is bad news, sure, but wouldn't send the company into bankruptcy. My average cost is $1.23. How low would it go after a rejection? lord only knows, but I'd like to think that without the speculation on TNFerade it's still a ~$1 range stock in today's market. That's a level of risk, with a huge potential upside, that I can live with.

You can also argue that the FDA has never really seen a treatment of this type, and that most past cases that could be called similar really aren't. it's new territory, which could be good or bad.

Just my 2c

 

[snoopdoug1]

GNVC taking a beating today.

VHC hasn't been doing so hot either as of the past few days.

 

[Regs]

I'm going to wait for the earnings report before adding to my stake. If this stock hits 2.50 or 2.60 after the earnings report, the stop loss triggers are going to sell this stock like crazy.

 

[snoopdoug1]

I'm going to wait for the earnings report before adding to my stake. If this stock hits 2.50 or 2.60 after the earnings report, the stop loss triggers are going to sell this stock like crazy.

I'm worried we're seeing manipulation again. The short interest has increased, the stock is dropping on high volume, and this exact same thing happened the last time it hit 3 bucks. I'm not holding my breath for any new news tomorrow, and I think she's going down further. We'll see if I'm right.

I took some profits this AM...

 

[The-Noid]

How did you calculate FCF?

 

[HopJokey]

I'm worried we're seeing manipulation again. The short interest has increased, the stock is dropping on high volume, and this exact same thing happened the last time it hit 3 bucks. I'm not holding my breath for any new news tomorrow, and I think she's going down further. We'll see if I'm right.

I took some profits this AM...

Wow one crazy ride the last few days. The trading is fierce.

 

[snoopdoug1]

Wow one crazy ride the last few days. The trading is fierce.

You're telling me. It just tried to make a comeback around 2PM, but it looks like it got thwarted back down. Who knows on this one. 7.5M shares with an hour and a half to go...

 

[HopJokey]

GNVC posted earnings yesterday:

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/100311/ph69128.html?.v=1

Nothing spectacular, the results were as expected. It seems they have enough cash to see the PACT through to it's completion.

What do you guys think?

 

[snoopdoug1]

GNVC posted earnings yesterday:

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/100311/ph69128.html?.v=1

Nothing spectacular, the results were as expected. It seems they have enough cash to see the PACT through to it's completion.

What do you guys think?

That was my take as well. Unless I misread something, they should have enough money to get through next year. They ended the year with 11 million in cash + investments, and they are projecting 14 to 16 million in revenue for 2010. Their project cash burn was 22 to 24 for all of 2010. So worst case they end the year with 1 million in cash. Now we just need to see some good results in the coming weeks.

Anyone listening to the conference call?

 

[MrMatt]

WAMUQ: R.I.P.

HUGE dead cat potential here though. I'm getting ready

 

[TuxDave]

WAMUQ: R.I.P.

HUGE dead cat potential here though. I'm getting ready

That cat is still bouncing? I thought it would've been dead for so long that it deserve to be in a museum by now.

 

[FelixDeCat]

LVS will hit $30 this year when their Macau casino opens.

 

[MrMatt]

That cat is still bouncing? I thought it would've been dead for so long that it deserve to be in a museum by now.

lol


.09 to .193 this afternoon. niiice kitty

 

[TuxDave]

lol


.09 to .193 this afternoon. niiice kitty

haha, what a rubbery kitty.

 

[HopJokey]

That was my take as well. Unless I misread something, they should have enough money to get through next year. They ended the year with 11 million in cash + investments, and they are projecting 14 to 16 million in revenue for 2010. Their project cash burn was 22 to 24 for all of 2010. So worst case they end the year with 1 million in cash. Now we just need to see some good results in the coming weeks.

Anyone listening to the conference call?

I read some comments on it, definitely not spectacular, on par with how management keeps it low key.

 

[aldamon]

VHC hasn't been doing so hot either as of the past few days.

Look at it now. This is how things are going in court:

Expert witness: Microsoft infringed VirnetX patents, and knew it
http://blog.seattlepi.com/microsoft/archives/197593.asp

 

[homerunkevin]

What do you guys think of citigroup in the long run? Past 3 days it jump to 4.17 but today it went back down to 3.97.

 

[DaWhim]

What do you guys think of citigroup in the long run? Past 3 days it jump to 4.17 but today it went back down to 3.97.

depends on your horizon. if it is long term like 5 years, i am sure you can make a killing of it.