***Official*** 2010 Stock Market Thread

[richardycc]

Ouch.

Was there any big red flags? The dilluation? Anything else? It looked like at worse the HR was going to be .80 NOT .92 and shut down. I thought if they were going to shut down the trial it would have to be because of some adverse event not simply "TNFerade sucks on PC".

I wish they would just announce the bad HR, that they will conduct a thorough analysis of available data, etc..then maybe announce the shutdown later after the thorough analysis, so the smart ones can at least get out..but no...bad data, shutting it down right away, WTF?? They have no freaking damage control what so ever...very disappointed with GNVC's management right now.

 

[Regs]

I wish they would just announce the bad HR, that they will conduct a thorough analysis of available data, etc..then maybe announce the shutdown later after the thorough analysis, so the smart ones can at least get out..but no...bad data, shutting it down right away, WTF?? They have no freaking damage control what so ever...very disappointed with GNVC's management right now.

I'm impressed in their management actually. Looking at the life of their stock, I'm impressed they found new ways to finance their failures every time. Their cash flows and revenues are in the red, their assets are actually shrinking, ... and yet they get partnerships and grants to finance their research.

And when it hit the fan, they disclosed the information ASAP. They were honest. I listened to the conference and one investor had a brother dying of PC, and she asked Fisher still what the plans were for TNFerade. Can you imagine the balls it took to answer her tear jerk question?

If only they could for once get a product out to sell! I admire their management, and was the prime reason why I'm invested in them.

 

[HopJokey]

This article was pretty accurate:

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10448931/1/genvec-stock-hit-by-pancreas-studys-details.html

Though I would of played the stock exactly as I would have in hindsight. It was a high risk, high reward stock. I lost 2 grand, but it's a lot better than missing out the chance of making 15k+. The chance of a drug lower risk of death of 20-25% in a market where no other drug really comes close would of been big.

The dilution well calculated financing at the most opportune time. If the trial succeeded, they would of had enough cash to see the project through. If they failed, they would have enough to concentrate on their vaccine platform and their hearing loss program. At least now they don't have to worry about the cash burn of a phase 3 drug candidate.

Agreed on all your points. I read that Adam F. article and didn't think too much of it a few weeks before "D-Day". He's pretty negative on all bios in general. He was spot on though with his analysis although he did say he thought 184 data would show the HR @ .80.

The dilution of the stock didn't mean much either. Like you said it was wise to cash in a little ahead of the results just in case the worse happened, which it did.

As for the changing anything? Nah no regrets; like you said the risk/reward was worth it. I did my DD and knew the odds. Crapped out on this one; next shooter please.

 

[aldamon]

Ouch.

Was there any big red flags?

The biggest red flag with bio-techs now is that people are finally realizing that many drugs, even ones already approved, do not outperform placebos:

http://www.naturalnews.com/027129_placebo_effect_drugs.html

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10713618/1/genvec-value-slammed-on-drug-failure.html

The approval process is long and hard enough already without this wrinkle thrown in.

 

[Azurik]

Rambus signs 5-year patent license with AMD, renews through 2015

This solidifies key RMBS patents past their original DRAM ones. Nvidia, can you hear us???

Exact rates to be determined by the end of this year. Strategically, I think both Rambus and AMD are waiting for the CAFC determination of spoilation (pro-RMBS from Judge Whyte in CA and anti-RMBS from Judge Robinson in DE). More importantly, they are waiting for the Nvidia outcome. AMD just wanted to lock in a renewal to be on good terms with Rambus pending all the decisions coming out while protecting their butt somewhat.

Keep in mind Rambus initially signed with AMD (the first contracti n 2005, RMBS licenses in 5-year spans) before AMD acquired ATI. The goof-up in the contract being that they didn't have a clause in there should AMD buy another company. Opps. Rambus lost a huge chunck of revenue since AMD was paying fixed quarterly payments. Nvidia was probably hesitant to sign because they didn't want AMD/ATI paying next to nothing while they had to suffer from paying high rates.

All and all, this is a important signing for Rambus. However, the market reaction will probably be muted until we determine the rates.

Can you imagine? Everything is going Rambus' way - just the wrong market.

Go RMBS!

 

[AznMthr]

azurik, what are your thoughts on the 3 judges that were selected for the cafc review? the transcript is coming out today from yesterday's hearing if you're not aware although i'm sure you are.

i also read you were still in heavily on dndn. i still have 100 shares remaining when you first recommended it at $4. i know it's not much, but the stock is almost hitting $40 today right before the fda decision. that's a 900% gain for me and it's just making me a little nervous since the stock has been rising like crazy. any insights to the stock?

 

[FelixDeCat]

LVS will hit $30 this year when their Macau casino opens.

$2.00 advance today to $21.50 on upgrade, $8.50 of upside left. Casino strip opens last week of April.

LVS hits $24. Only $6 of upside left. :'(

 

[richardycc]

azurik, what are your thoughts on the 3 judges that were selected for the cafc review? the transcript is coming out today from yesterday's hearing if you're not aware although i'm sure you are.

i also read you were still in heavily on dndn. i still have 100 shares remaining when you first recommended it at $4. i know it's not much, but the stock is almost hitting $40 today right before the fda decision. that's a 900% gain for me and it's just making me a little nervous since the stock has been rising like crazy. any insights to the stock?

I'd at least sell 50shares to lock in the gain. After the recent GNVC disaster, there is no sure winner on wall street, and one bird in the hand is really better than 2 birds in the bush. On the other hand, I bought some CIGX this week, this was STSI last year, they changed their symbol to reflect the fact that they are a cigarettes company...supposedly Obama is using their product to quit smoking. This is a purely speculative play, will sell around $4-$5.

 

[vo]

About CIGX: they did not get a favor ruling last year in a patent-infringement lawsuit brought against R.J. Reynold Tobacco, their stock lost about 75%. Have they file a motion for a new trial yet (they said they would appeal)?
CIGX had been more than double since last month when they filed for FDA approval for marketing the First Modified Risk Tobacco Product.

 

[onza]

I purchased some LNG stock.

Doing good!

 

[Azurik]

azurik, what are your thoughts on the 3 judges that were selected for the cafc review? the transcript is coming out today from yesterday's hearing if you're not aware although i'm sure you are.

i also read you were still in heavily on dndn. i still have 100 shares remaining when you first recommended it at $4. i know it's not much, but the stock is almost hitting $40 today right before the fda decision. that's a 900% gain for me and it's just making me a little nervous since the stock has been rising like crazy. any insights to the stock?

I like the random CAFC panel that got selected for Rambus, although one judge seems to be recusing himself due to a possible conflict of interest. It would be weird now if there was a spilt decision. But after listening to the audio tapes, I think Whyte gets affirmed and they will over rule Robinson's ruling that certain RMBS' patents are unenforceable.

As for DNDN, it's been my second biggest holding for a while. I think the decision will get released before the May 1 deadline. If it's positive, I think the stock will jump to the $50's ($55 would be my target), and eventually (a year or two) run well past $100. Provenge is THE next blockbuster drug. If the news is negative, I see DNDN go back to the $20's.

I'm obviously betting on the positive side given my shares, but if you had to ask me percentage-wise, I would say 85% everything goes well and 15% it won't.

 

[her209]

Anyone know when the 1st quarter numbers will be released?

 

[richardycc]

so CIGX now might have a cure for Alzheimer's disease, and supposedly, they can sell it as "supplement" or as one person put it as "nutraceutical', a few warning labels, they are good to go..LOL.. interesting, but after GNVC's fiasco, I don't believe anything anymore.

 

[KDKPSJ]

Earning season starts with AA, which got hit by downgrades on Monday and today, next week. For a quick gamble, I may buy Apr $ 15 OTM calls if it stays $ 14+ or $ 14 OTM calls if it goes $ 14- on Monday.

What is game plan for you guys? Bull? Bear?

 

[Jassi]

Building on this, I'm thinking about picking some OTM LEAP Calls for AA and other companies I think will be fine in the long term. AA Jan 2012 $15 looks tempting. I'm expecting to be in B-school by then and this year is my last chance to place some bets. It could result in some night pocket change in Jan 2012 or I lose a few hundred bucks.

What do you guys think?

Earning season starts with AA, which got hit by downgrades on Monday and today, next week. For a quick gamble, I may buy Apr $ 15 OTM calls if it stays $ 14+ or $ 14 OTM calls if it goes $ 14- on Monday.

What is game plan for you guys? Bull? Bear?

 

[JS80]

Long Gold
Long Crude
Long Russell 2k
Long EMB
Long S
Long AUD/USD
Short EUR/AUD

 

[Jassi]

Tex hit 52 week high today and is up 31% since March 3rd closing price. I should have just bought more TEX instead of buying GNVC and VHC :awe:

Here's one for you guys: TEX.

I bought about 100 shares at $13 because it had lagged other equipment manufacturers in PPS. Currently trading above 21 and rumors of a takeover. The company has divested recently and it's not even close to turning a profit because it's product is not moving. But when industrial equipment orders start flowing again, it's nicely positioned (like all other players).

It's up nicely today and that's the only reason I noticed. Thoughts?

I know its not a high-tech litigation play but I mainly invest in industrial sector because I understand it better.

 

[IEC]

Closed out of GNVC at $2.56/share. Closed out of IJJ and BRK.B today as well. It's been a lot of unloading the past few days... I've had enough profits for the year to feel comfortable getting out for now until I am sure of the economy's direction.

Only position left in my trading account is RMBS. We'll see for how long.

Initiated a small SIRI position recently. That is the only equity I am currently holding.

The rest are index funds in my retirement accounts.

 

[richardycc]

anyone watching ABK? I made a few bucks back in 08 with it. no position YET.

 

[FelixDeCat]

anyone watching ABK? I made a few bucks back in 08 with it. no position YET.

Too risky to buy now IMO. Up 175% in two trading sessions on really no big news. The recently reported "profit" was mostly a tax benefit and maybe 15% or less from cost cutting.

They are writing no new business, have mentioned several times bankruptcy is always possible at anytime, just had a huge portion of their other functional subsidiary seized by the state of Wisconson to protect claims and are really just a shell company winding down assets.

Very risky, but you never know. It may go to $3 or it may go back to $.50 when the momentum fades and all the dumb money tries to flee at the same time.

Its your call.

 

[snoopdoug1]

Too risky to buy now IMO. Up 175% in two trading sessions on really no big news. The recently reported "profit" was mostly a tax benefit and maybe 15% or less from cost cutting.

They are writing no new business, have mentioned several times bankruptcy is always possible at anytime, just had a huge portion of their other functional subsidiary seized by the state of Wisconson to protect claims and are really just a shell company winding down assets.

Very risky, but you never know. It may go to $3 or it may go back to $.50 when the momentum fades and all the dumb money tries to flee at the same time.

Its your call.

Wow - up another 61 cents premarket... almost at 3 already.

 

[richardycc]

Wow - up another 61 cents premarket... almost at 3 already.

I bought some right before the close at 2.27 and just sold 500 shares at 2.83 premarket, will probably sell the rest today. Other than short squeeze, I just can't find a reason for this run up.

 

[richardycc]

wow, ABK is like the Energizer bunny...or like a game of musical chairs?

 

[snoopdoug1]

wow, ABK is like the Energizer bunny...or like a game of musical chairs?

That's crazy. That's a nice 50% for an overnight hold for you!

 

[richardycc]

just sold the rest at 3.07