Official 2011 Fantasy Football Discussion Thread

[SunnyD]

maybe I'm wrong and the stats don't show it, or at least not obviously, in part because all statistics will look "random." But I think defensive stats are inherently more random. At this point we can expect Tom Brady to throw a ton of passes to wes welker and gronkowski. We can expect TDs somewhat often, even though they(as well as total catches and yardage) will vary. But sacks, interceptions, and again, Touchdowns, occur less often, so it's luck of the draw when you are facing a defense. Opponent probably factors in more heavily too.

Kickers, for example, don't vary too heavily from 1st ranked to x ranked. I would imagine Defenses vary more than position players. So an average defensive performance is more uniform. In my league, I'd say it's about 10 points. 15 would be a good outcome. Over 20, and it's rare, and makes a big difference. But those 20 pointers come from random teams at random times. Wes Welker might average 15 points a game, with a high standard deviation, but that 15 is a lot more valuable than the average defensive score. Idk, I feel like I'm starting to ramble It's only shitty useless defenses anyway

Right, but your spreadsheet sample is comparing apples to apples too (the "high end" DST's versus the "high end" skill players). If you end up looking at the oranges to oranges as well (the low end of both), you're going to find inherently more randomness on both sides of the fence. Thing is you're going to have to compare either the WHOLE sample set, or each set individually. Once you do that, you're going to see pretty much a mirror of what your limited sample is - DST's will mirror the average deviation that the skill positions have.

If you will, good solid DST's are going to have more sacks and ints (and pick-6's) just as good WRs, TEs, QBs and RBs will. Bad ones will have less, and inconsistent (ie: matchup based teams) will be more random just like their skill position counterparts.

You are correct when you say DST will be a more uniform average versus an individual player simply by virtue of comparing about 20 players per DST to one skill position player. But the inherent randomness you suggest regarding DSTs is, as you've proven, equally existent in the skill position side.

 

[tontod]

Should I play Marshawn Lynch over Michael Bush this week?

 

[Connoisseur]

Should I play Marshawn Lynch over Michael Bush this week?

If your name is Slayer and you're playing against me then by all means YES . In all seriousness though, no. Bush has been nothing short of a stud since McFadden went out and it's HIGHLY questionable that run DMC is going to play this week. Also, if i'm not mistaken, Miami has a fairly soft Run D.

 

[slayer202]

For a price, I'll throw the game

In the other league, I need a win to make the playoffs. Of course I'm playing the #1 team(I think they are, not 100% sure)

 

[spacejamz]

For a price, I'll throw the game

In the other league, I need a win to make the playoffs. Of course I'm playing the #1 team(I think they are, not 100% sure)

Are you on the cusp because your D/ST did not perform well throughout the season???? LOL

 

[woodman1999]

For a price, I'll throw the game

In the other league, I need a win to make the playoffs. Of course I'm playing the #1 team(I think they are, not 100% sure)

Indeed you are. Since I have locked up a playoff spot, I could shave a couple points for you for the right price....

 

[tontod]

Out of these 3 - Percy Harvin, Brandon Marshall and Denarius Moore, which 2 would you guys pick for week 13?

 

[SunnyD]

Out of these 3 - Percy Harvin, Brandon Marshall and Denarius Moore, which 2 would you guys pick for week 13?

Harvin and Marshall. Moore is nothing short of inconsistent right now.

 

[tontod]

Harvin and Marshall. Moore is nothing short of inconsistent right now.

Thanks, I also have Riley Cooper on my bench. Should I start him instead of either Harvin or Marshall? Or he's going to be in the same category as Moore, too inconsistent?

 

[HopJokey]

Who should I start at Flex?

Jake Ballard or Riley Cooper

 

[SunnyD]

Who should I start at Flex?

Jake Ballard or Riley Cooper

Cooper.

 

[TheNinja]

In a shallow league (8 team) I have

Frank Gore
LaGarret Blount
Ryan Matthews
Willis McGahee

I have to start 3. I'm leaning towards putting Willis on the bench, but Matthews loses touches and some goal line carries to Tolbert. Willis loses some rushing TD to Tebow though too.

 

[TheNinja]

Harvin and Marshall. Moore is nothing short of inconsistent right now.

I agree. Moore has huge potential, but also has potential for getting you like 2 points. Harvin is also somewhat inconsistent, but he's had a good last few weeks and the Vikings always try to get him the ball at least either through passing or the running game.

 

[shocksyde]

Should I sit Stevie Johnson or Dwayne Bowe for Doug Baldwin? Or let Baldwin ride the pine?

 

[vi edit]

Should I sit Stevie Johnson or Dwayne Bowe for Doug Baldwin? Or let Baldwin ride the pine?

Bowe and Johnson. Seattles passing game is a mess and Philly has a decent secondary. TJAX is no Tom Brady.

 

[crownjules]

I have the Lions D/ST and I figure they'll get lit up between losing Suh and playing NO. Here's what's available off of waivers:

DEN (vs. MIN)
JAC (vs. SD)
ATL (vs. HOU)

 

[AMDZen]

Denver

fo

shoooooooooo

 

[slayer202]

Denver x2

 

[TheNinja]

In a shallow league (8 team) I have

Frank Gore
LaGarret Blount
Ryan Matthews
Willis McGahee

I have to start 3. I'm leaning towards putting Willis on the bench, but Matthews loses touches and some goal line carries to Tolbert. Willis loses some rushing TD to Tebow though too.

Good ideas I think

 

[spidey07]

Denver x2

Y'all think Denver will do well? I mean they do seem to be pumped up, or is this just a really good match up for them defensively? I've got chicago, but went and grabbed denver.

 

[slayer202]

Y'all think Denver will do well? I mean they do seem to be pumped up, or is this just a really good match up for them defensively? I've got chicago, but went and grabbed denver.

Well I play defenses week to week, and they were the best available for me. Also, out of that guy's choices, they are the best pick imo. I would start the bears over them, though. (rotoworld has the bears listed 3rd, denver 8th. and for those other teams, jax 21st, atlanta 7th). I know Atlanta is ranked up there because of houston's troubles, but I would imagine they will have a very very conservative passing gameplan.

 

[shocksyde]

Chandler, Celek or Daniels?

 

[Arik5405]

if Michael Turner doesn't play this week who do you think will get the bulk of the carries?
Jacquizz Rodgers or Jason Snelling? Neither one of them is probably going to be a good pickup against the Texans D, but if Turner doesn't play I'm screwed.

 

[SunnyD]

Chandler, Celek or Daniels?

Given Celek is already playing - Chandler. I think Gailey finally figured out that he NEEDS to use his TE.

 

[vi edit]

Damn am I glad I held on to Lynch. Beastmode has single handidly kept me in playoff hopes.