***Official*** 2011 Stock Market Thread

[IHateMyJob2004]

OK, I'll create it.

Any thoughts on Safeway (SWY). I am getting desperate for ideas I think. But in terms of FCF, SWY looks good. There is alot of insider selling (options related) but there is also a $1B buy back program in place with a $8B market cap. The share buy back thing has been going on for about 5 years now and has resulted in a potential bargain.

I also noticed that I missed out on URI (United Rentals) which has doubled in price over the past year. DOH. I kept thinking about buying but never pulled the damned trigger.

Right now, I'd have to say that oil prises are going up over the next few years. I've been saying that $6 gas at the pump is coming for a while now. I probably started saying this in 2007 and said that I'd expect it in 5-7 years. So, I have till 2014 I guess for my prediction to come true. One Oil Exec (Shell I think) said that he sees gas at the pump hitting $5 in 2012. Anyways, I am fairly certain of where things are going and it is natural gas. That's why I have a chunk of SD in my portfolio.

2007 Stock Market Thread: 2007 Stock Market Thread

2008 Stock Market Thread: 2008 Stock Market Thread

2009 Stock Market Thread: 2009 Stock Market Thread

2009 Stock Market Thread: 2010 Stock Market Thread

 

[HopJokey]

To the new year!

 

[Demo24]

Right now I'm throwing most into Ford (F). Doing well today at the moment +.50, and tomorrow is sales release numbers

 

[FelixDeCat]

The market will crash 20% or more this year when America is forced into austerity by the countries buying our debt. :'(

Moodys has already threatened to downgrade our AAA credit rating, and may carry out that threat in 2011.

 

[endervalentine]

Happy New Years everyone! I was wondering why Azurik would pop in this year! Thanks IHMJ2k4!

What was the latest on RMBS, when is the trail date set for, last I read it was sometime in Jan? I need some cash freed up to get a downpayment for a small townhouse, it won't be enough but at least it get me closer to 20%

 

[The-Noid]

The market will crash 20% or more this year when America is forced into austerity by the countries buying our debt. :'(

xxx

 

[The-Noid]

xxx

 

[lothar]

Still continuation of the rally from last year. LULU, MCP, JOE, AAPL all leading the tape higher.

You own JOE?

 

[The-Noid]

xxx

 

[Imp]

Damn it. BAC is still going up. Was hoping for a dip before going in, might have to just go for it. Oh well, at least it sent my C up.

 

[TheBDB]

Damn it. BAC is still going up. Was hoping for a dip before going in, might have to just go for it. Oh well, at least it sent my C up.

I got in at 11.05 about a month ago. Not sure how much I should be worried about Wikileaks exposing them. Doesn't everyone already know the banks are greedy pieces of shit?

 

[Jadow]

I am f'ing sick of this overbought market going up! It needs to go down hard so I can buy back in!

WHY O WHY did I get out when the S&P was 1030!

 

[SSSnail]

All the stocks that I recommended in past threads have more than double in price.

 

[Imp]

I got in at 11.05 about a month ago. Not sure how much I should be worried about Wikileaks exposing them. Doesn't everyone already know the banks are greedy pieces of shit?

I was in at $11.44, then added more at $12.67, saw it go to the shitter in November, so sold it at a small loss. Wanted to go back in eventually, but was expecting more down, or a short rally before another correction. Well, here we are: month long rally, 20+ % increase.

Screw Wikileaks. What are they going to expose? That all the banks conspired to sell sub-prime mortages to people they knew couldn't afford it, thus being a major cause of the recession we're currently in?

 

[JS80]

I'm up substantially on ATPG, GMXR, and HERO.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

The market will crash 20% or more this year when America is forced into austerity by the countries buying our debt. :'(

Moodys has already threatened to downgrade our AAA credit rating, and may carry out that threat in 2011.

As bad as USA currency may seem to be, I have to say.... what is the alternative? there is not one. The bottom line is that when it comes to financial regulation, the US is one of the best countries in the world at it. Even with the occasional turmoil. I'm sure that I will get some flack given the current state of things though.

My best idea right now is LEE. Way undervalued and has been FCF positive for years. The newspaper industry is super depressed due to perception, not reality. RSKIA is good if you can get it in the low $4s but good luck with that.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Damn it. BAC is still going up. Was hoping for a dip before going in, might have to just go for it. Oh well, at least it sent my C up.

Ignoring current quote, would you buy BAC? Just for the quality of the business?

 

[jingramm]

I'm up substantially on ATPG, GMXR, and HERO.

how do you select your stocks?

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I am f'ing sick of this overbought market going up! It needs to go down hard so I can buy back in!

WHY O WHY did I get out when the S&P was 1030!

The issue really pertains to what a company is worth. At 1030, there was plenty of upside. The problem now (in my opinion) is that things are finally getting to a rational level. I think Dow 14,000 could happen this year but I also think 10,000 could happen. I am 20% cash right now and trying to pick up a handful of companies but in no rush. Bad news or good news will come with articles that say event X or Y caused the markets to go up or down.

Saddest thing lately. I met a retired guy who sold at Dow 13500 or so. What timing. Went into bonds. But he doesn't really understand investment. He just got lucky due to fear. He should have been buying in at under Dow 9000 but didn't because of hte very thing that made him sell, fear. And now that Dow is at 11500 he wants to move into stocks again. Point of all this is that people will feel safe investing in stocks again as the economy improves and the market is bearish for an extended period. Psychology (cognitive biases in particular), I swear it is more important than most people think when investing.

 

[Imp]

Ignoring current quote, would you buy BAC? Just for the quality of the business?

Yes. They have over a trillion in assets (lot of it's toxic right now, I know), and after they pay off all the lawsuits, they'll likely be making billions in profits per quarter like Citigroup already has. Whether they do it without screwing people over is up in the air (more like almost guaranteed).

I know, if you believe in a business, you should buy in, and when it goes down in price, use it as an opportunity to increase your stake. Unfortunately, I don't like seeing short-term losses, and enjoy riding the rallies up, selling at the top, and re-entering when it bottoms out. All of this requires trying and failing to predict the market, so ya, really should just go for it.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Yes. They have over a trillion in assets (lot of it's toxic right now, I know), and after they pay off all the lawsuits, they'll likely be making billions in profits per quarter like Citigroup already has. Whether they do it without screwing people over is up in the air (more like almost guaranteed).

I know, if you believe in a business, you should buy in, and when it goes down in price, use it as an opportunity to increase your stake. Unfortunately, I don't like seeing short-term losses, and enjoy riding the rallies up, selling at the top, and re-entering when it bottoms out. All of this requires trying and failing to predict the market, so ya, really should just go for it.

What do you think about how much BAC paid for Merril? The same mentality is still there. It doesn't matter if a CEO was replaced.

To nitpick, when a business goes down in value, the reaction is not to buy. It is to revisit the reasons you bought, see if those reasons have changed, and to then either buy more or sell.

Anyways, I do own one or two banks but I would not touch BAC. I was trying to tell you not to buy BAC. Why people are not using the same rationalization (Earnings, undervalued etc) and buying WFC which Warren Buffett has said that he'd be willing to go 100% in is beyond me.

As for the Merrill branch, what is going to happen next time Wall Street gets greedy? Will BAC/Merril be bailed out or will re-regulation (Glass Steagall parts coming back?) force the split off off the Merrill arm prior to Merrill killing itself next time thus saving BAC?

 

[The-Noid]

xxx

 

[dullard]

I am f'ing sick of this overbought market going up! It needs to go down hard so I can buy back in!

WHY O WHY did I get out when the S&P was 1030!

Ouch. Getting out at a 52 week low. Luckilly for me, that was the day I went 100% in.

My question for you is why do you think it is overbought? GDP has recovered fully from before the recession. Profits are up. Manufacturing has grown 17 straight months. Taxes are low for at least another two years. Inflation is non-existant. Etc. All the key bits of information for stocks to go up are positive.

I'm sure we are due for a small correction. But, that is more based on cashing in profits than on fundamentals. Thus, I don't think a correction to the downside will stick.

 

[The-Noid]

S & P 500 Earnings were 42% Banks and Financial Institutions in 2007, that is not coming back.

Companies are going to have to be very lean to get to $100 per share S & P 500 earnings.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Closed out some naked puts agaisnt USG today. Profits add a about 0.5% to my portfolios value. Not much but then again, I didn't really risk much.