***Official*** 2011 Stock Market Thread

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Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
RMBS moving this morning

AT Trial is finished, closing arguments are next week from Monday-Wednesday. Jury instructions on Thursday with a verdict as soon as Friday.

I bought more during the dip and bought some cheap options as protection and some as speculating. Cross your risky litigation-loving fingers.
 

Kntx

Platinum Member
Dec 11, 2000
2,270
0
71
AT Trial is finished, closing arguments are next week from Monday-Wednesday. Jury instructions on Thursday with a verdict as soon as Friday.

I bought more during the dip and bought some cheap options as protection and some as speculating. Cross your risky litigation-loving fingers.

Any chance of a settlement??
 

Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
Any chance of a settlement??

Anything's possible, but I doubt it (especially with Micron). The prices might be too far off. Micron probably wants to pay $1 and Rambus could want the sky with them. Samsung got a sweetheart deal with their $900m settlement prior to trial. Harold (CEO of Rambus) has stated that anyone they go through trial with will not be be off the hook as easily.

Hynix is a small possibility since there is also a risk of Hynix in Judge Whyte's court (where they lost to Rambus, but damages needs to be reassessed). Micron hates hates HATES Rambus, and I can't imagine them settling.
 

endervalentine

Senior member
Jan 30, 2009
700
0
0
AT Trial is finished, closing arguments are next week from Monday-Wednesday. Jury instructions on Thursday with a verdict as soon as Friday.

I bought more during the dip and bought some cheap options as protection and some as speculating. Cross your risky litigation-loving fingers.

I was tempted to pick up more shares when it dipped to $11, but couldn't get myself around to do it given how much RMBS I'm already holding, for sure not as much as you, but still a good chunk and with DNDN dropping a few months ago, the gamble in me wasn't there.

Hope it everything works out if not, w/ DNDN and RMBS, it would be a really sucky rest of year.
 

Ns1

No Lifer
Jun 17, 2001
55,414
1,574
126
crazy dive for netflix stock 2011. was wondering how long that was gonna last.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
crazy dive for netflix stock 2011. was wondering how long that was gonna last.

Ya, cable internet by telecom companies providing the pipeline that streams you content that kills their business. That alone put me off. Doesn't look like bandwidth caps had much to do with the current drop, but longer term? Okay...
 

Pliablemoose

Lifer
Oct 11, 1999
25,195
0
56
NetFlix is losing the content from Starz, they're in trouble, I'll keep them till the Starz movies are gone, then they're toast...

Or I may just kill them if I get an Amazon tablet that streams free Amazon prime content.

Also, Apple, just crossed $400/share. Woot!!!!
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
I can't believe tech is doing so well (i.e. MSFT, AAPL, GOOG) despite everyone else crashing and burning. Would have though recession-risk = companies no spend on tech, consumers have no money?

Pulled 1/4 back out. Not in the mood to hold over the weekend right now.
 

Pliablemoose

Lifer
Oct 11, 1999
25,195
0
56
Is there a chance for CSTR? Crossing fingers here. I doubt Netflix subs will flock to the vending machines.

Netflix has several problems, nothing is keeping other entrants from providing a similar service, and those of us who are cheap will use things like RedBox, and there's no reason RedBox can't do online streaming. Amazon Prime free streaming and Hulu are alternatives for those who want to stream. I suspect Amazon streaming will only get better, while NetFlix is going to continue to have problems.

I think CSTR is a great alternative.
 
Sep 29, 2004
18,665
67
91
Everyone should read a few years of Netflix annual reports. The writing has been on the wall for a while with Netflix. Just read the risk factors sections form the past few years. That would take 2 hours tops.

With all these entrants, keep in mind that regardless of who wins that battle, the content creators (Hollywood) will win and do so on their terms. All of deliverers of content are going to be in for a fight that is going to drive their margins down. Want to get the Disney catalog in your streaming product though? Disney is going to tell you exactly what they want and their survival is not tied to the winner of those it leases its content to. Hollywood has also learned alot about structuring contracts for streaming data. Details in that are in the Netflix annual reports.

Also for the record, I read up on Netflix about a year ago. I don't remember the details. I know the generalizations I provided above. It's bad when what I think was 4 hours of reading convinced me that Netflix is going to be screwed. Not necessarily put out of business, but those margins. There is no sustainable competitive advantage and to many big companies could easily enter the market. Just think ... Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, netflix, future A, future B. See where this is going.

I've also thought about the possibility of various content creators cutting out the middle man altogether, but that makes no sense. I think some moron will eventually take control of one of these companies and try to be the defacto streaming provider of it's IP. But that will prove to make no sense since people are not going to want to "rent" from Disney, NBC and 50 other content creators. A middle man is truly needed.

EDIT: the simplfiication of the old netflix model is that it leased the IP for streaming form multiple companies. In doing so, they were allowed to do unlimited streaming for a fixed cost. What was unexpected is that streaming took off big time. So Netlfix was really paying nothing compared to what they should have been paying for those IP leases. Those lease contracts ended and now you see what they did to their streaming prices. These changes were known to be coming many years ago. This is what I meant about Holywood learning a lesson. They are going to be more careful about those lease agreements.
 
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Pliablemoose

Lifer
Oct 11, 1999
25,195
0
56
Everyone should read a few years of Netflix annual reports. The writing has been on the wall for a while with Netflix. Just read the risk factors sections form the past few years. That would take 2 hours tops.

With all these entrants, keep in mind that regardless of who wins that battle, the content creators (Hollywood) will win and do so on their terms. All of deliverers of content are going to be in for a fight that is going to drive margins down.

Yep, NetFlix was very lucky to cut a deal with Starz in the first place, and the Starz content will go away in Feb, IIRC. Will be another huge drop in subscribers then. My plan is to bail (as a subscriber) when that content source is gone...

I've bought and sold NetFlix a couple of times when it was still trending up like crazy...
 

Acanthus

Lifer
Aug 28, 2001
19,915
2
76
ostif.org
NetFlix is losing the content from Starz, they're in trouble, I'll keep them till the Starz movies are gone, then they're toast...

Or I may just kill them if I get an Amazon tablet that streams free Amazon prime content.

Also, Apple, just crossed $400/share. Woot!!!!

The Starz content is generally terrible, I don't get why people consider this such a huge deal.

Looking at the list right now on my home page, i have 1 movie over 3 stars and it was rated manually by my gf. (Tangled)
 

jessieqwert

Senior member
Jun 21, 2003
957
1
76
Not sure I have the guts to short NFLX in to the ground.

Still long on S, and waiting for another dip to get back in IMAX
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
Italy got downgraded by S&P (boo!).

Deciding how much money to leave on the sidelines in case the Europe situation suddenly hits the fan.
 

chihlidog

Senior member
Apr 12, 2011
884
1
81
I've been lacking the capital to actually invest until now. I've been wanting to play the market for a long, long time, and made some nice virtual money on it.

Opening an account this week just for trading. Hopefully you guys dont mind a n00b sticking his nose in this thread.
 

Pliablemoose

Lifer
Oct 11, 1999
25,195
0
56
Go go aapl!!!

LOL, I freaked out, up 11 points on no news I can find, except another analyst saying they'll have 2 devices released and the cheaper phone is expected to do well in China.

Where Apple is masterful is ramping up it's stock price prior to a product announcement or earnings. It very carefully and purposely releases info that gets the market excited.

I tend to be "all in" prior to earnings or a product launch, typically 3-4 weeks prior to either. This October will be a double play (earnings and a product launch), and honestly, one of the things I suspect Tim Cook wants to do is get Apple's stock price above Google's for Senior Jobs before he dies. I also suspect few people really understand how much Jobs actually hates Google...
 
Sep 29, 2004
18,665
67
91
Italy got downgraded by S&P (boo!).

Deciding how much money to leave on the sidelines in case the Europe situation suddenly hits the fan.

Kinda wondering that to. I also wonder how much it is "already priced in".

Seems the market is back to being on the edge of collapse again. Just waiting for people to freak out. If that happens we could see Dow 7000 again.

Or we get a surprise in unemployment next news release or GDP is up more than expected.

Alot of unknowns out there. I only fear the systemic risk of fear.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
At this point, if the DOW hits 7000, I'll probably lose at least 30-50% on paper, but most of its in oil, so at some point it'll come back. A quarter is in banks, that may recover. If not, I have enough on the side to make all that up, so give or take a year or two, I'll at least break-even... Eff ya!
 

chihlidog

Senior member
Apr 12, 2011
884
1
81
So can anyone offer advice on which online trading service is the best? I have a zecco account, but it currently isnt funded, I only signed on with them for $4.99 trades. I just set up a bank account specifically for online trading so Im ready to go, just need to choose a broker.

Any advice is welcome.
 
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