***Official*** 2011 Stock Market Thread

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Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
My lunch money is riding on your gut, Azurik.

Can you not make me feel guilty? Do you have any protection against your shares?

I'm risking a potential loss of around $80k with where I bought the protection, and need (read: hope) that RMBS makes me half a million dollars. I just need the price to go around $30 for this to happen. This will turn my year around from the DNDN debacle earlier and take away any loss from the 10%+ drop we've had in the major stock indices... and I will still be able to afford a Maserati
 
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SunnyD

Belgian Waffler
Jan 2, 2001
32,674
145
106
www.neftastic.com
Can you not make me feel guilty? Do you have any protection against your shares?

My protection is that it's a very small stake of purely liquid cash asset. Like I said, lunch money. I'll either be eating steak for a month or ramen for a month. Either way, I'll survive.

Only bad thing is I bought a hair too early it appears... but I was expecting the swings.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
End to quite a shitty day, ontop of yesterday: DOW down 390 points. TSX down 400 points.

I got extra butt-effed by the rise in the American dollar - teach me to buy Canadian companies on the NYSE (2-3% additional drop).

Come on oversold rally tomorrow?
 

basslover1

Golden Member
Aug 4, 2004
1,921
0
76
I don't know why I didn't think of this sooner, and the concept never occurred to me, that deposits to investment accounts can take up to three business days. I was planning on getting some shares of Blockbuster before Dish's announcement tomorrow morning to hopefully ride the wave. Looks like that wont be happening.

 

chihlidog

Senior member
Apr 12, 2011
884
1
81
I don't know why I didn't think of this sooner, and the concept never occurred to me, that deposits to investment accounts can take up to three business days. I was planning on getting some shares of Blockbuster before Dish's announcement tomorrow morning to hopefully ride the wave. Looks like that wont be happening.


I'm waiting on my deposit to clear as well. Frustrating. I've never had the money to risk on stocks until now so I'll be making my first trades as soon as it goes in. I'm hoping to have it available tomorrow.
 

Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
2 new news on RMBS, one a major investment bank upgrade and another story highlighting one of my friends:


JP Morgan Suggests Overweighting Rambus (RMBS) in Your Portfolio

Rambus (NASDAQ:RMBS) initiated at Overweight at JP Morgan. The stock closed yesterday at $13.03 on volume of 3,013,000 shares, above the average daily volume of 1,574,964. Shares of RMBS have been in a basing pattern and this report may spark renewed interest as soon as the broader market stabilizes.


Rambus faithful set up verdict vigil
By Laird Harrison

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Pat Hughes left the bar he owns in New York City, flew across the country and showed up at 4:45 a.m. Wednesday morning to stand in line.

He wasn't trying to buy tickets to the Super Bowl or a Lady Gaga concert or shop at a holiday sale. Rather he wanted to be sure of getting a seat in a stuffy courtroom where lawyers would spend hours expounding on the minutiae of semiconductor technology.

Such is the dedication of investors in Rambus Inc, which for a decade has been fighting to prove that titans of industry conspired to steal its patents, fix prices and drive it out of business. Closing arguments ended Wednesday in Rambus's lawsuit against Micron Technology Inc and Hynix Semiconductor Inc after more than three months of testimony.

Investors such as Hughes have descended on the California Superior Court in San Francisco to watch their side do battle -- and perhaps make a last-minute trade.

"It's the David vs. Goliath thing," said Hughes, 46. "And so many of us have lost so much of our investment."

Billions of dollars are at stake. Rambus is asking for $3.95 billion in damages, which by California law would be instantly tripled, as well as unspecified punitive damages. Such an award could dramatically change the fortune of a company worth $1.46 billion in market capitalization as of Wednesday.

The company's shares often gyrate in tandem with major court decisions. For example, in January 2007 Rambus shares gained 9 percent after a favorable ruling in a case involving Hynix.

And the shares dropped 18 percent in May this year when an appeals court ruled against Rambus in a case against Micron.

On Thursday, a half dozen of the Ramboids, as company followers call themselves, set up a vigil in the marble-floored corridor outside the courtroom, waiting for the jury to return.

Jim Rockwell of Orange, Connecticut, said he has followed the company's fortunes since investing in 1999. A former software company owner, Rockwell said he was impressed by Rambus' inventions, which he believes underlie much of the hardware now on the market. "Computer memory would be so much slower if it were not for what they did," he said.

Rockwell, who also attended previous trials in California, Virginia and Washington, D.C., spent a week lining up at 6 a.m. for one of the coveted 42 seats in the courtroom. By Wednesday morning, the line stretched nearly a block, and anyone who arrived after 7 a.m. was relegated to following the online postings of the early birds.

The group shared donuts in line and many went out for dinner to pore over the closing arguments.

Lawyers for both sides focused on the reasons and the timing of the decision by the dominant microprocessor company, Intel Corp, to abandon Rambus's memory product RDRAM in favor of SDRAM, which became the industry standard.

Rambus says South Korea's Hynix and Idaho-based Micron colluded to fix prices of memory chips used in personal computers and prevent its technology from becoming widely used. It claims it lost billions of dollars in business.

Micron and Hynix argue that Rambus's chip technology was plagued by technical problems and that the company blames competitors for its own failure.

Micron attorney William Price and Hynix attorney Kenneth Nissly displayed memos from Intel and other computer companies suggesting that Rambus's arrogance had alienated its business partners. "Based on their view of the product, Rambus, and the changing market, Intel had decided not to have anything to do with Rambus," said Price.

In rebuttal, Rambus attorney Bart H. Williams argued that Intel's decision to switch from RDRAM to SDRAM came about only because it was harder to get RDRAM. "It was all about price and availability," he said.

Much of Rambus income comes from patent licensing, and it has initiated litigation against a range of tech companies. Winning patent cases makes it easier for Rambus to negotiate additional licensing arrangements.

The case in Superior Court of the State of California, County of San Francisco is Rambus Inc. v. Micron Technology Inc. et al, 04-431105.
 
Sep 29, 2004
18,665
67
91
Sounds more like drunk football fans than investors.

Anyway. Did I blink this morning? I could swear that futures about an hour prior to open were down 3%. So at 10 am, I open up google fiannce and I am shocked to see the market flat. It opened down 0.8% or so and rose to flat.

So, did I just imagine where futures were pointing to for an open or was it real?
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
Sounds more like drunk football fans than investors.

Anyway. Did I blink this morning? I could swear that futures about an hour prior to open were down 3%. So at 10 am, I open up google fiannce and I am shocked to see the market flat. It opened down 0.8% or so and rose to flat.

So, did I just imagine where futures were pointing to for an open or was it real?

Looks like we're slowly moving towards that as the day goes on.

Good thing I have a sizable amount of money in my savings account that's only growing. If it gets worse, it better stay bad until a few of my GICs reach maturity in early November.
 

Kntx

Platinum Member
Dec 11, 2000
2,270
0
71
We are also drunk football fans

Hey, just want to thank you for the rambus postings on the board over the last few years. I made some nice gains during the run up in 2009. Haven't owned shares in over a year but I'm back on board the bus with some calls for the big decision this week. Trying to not count chickens, but it's going to be hard to avoid this weekend!
 

Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
Hey, just want to thank you for the rambus postings on the board over the last few years. I made some nice gains during the run up in 2009. Haven't owned shares in over a year but I'm back on board the bus with some calls for the big decision this week. Trying to not count chickens, but it's going to be hard to avoid this weekend!

You're welcome Kntx. It's the only individual stock I have or will ever own (in some shape or form) for this amount of time. It's taught me a lot, specifically about IP companies. I learned a lot during the 11-12 year journey.

Even though it's my favorite topic to talk about regarding equities, I try not to talk about it too much. I can't help it here since the stock threads I created were initially geared towards Rambus, but I don't mention the company much to my stock subscribers either. They probably know too much about it anyway
 

Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
Mark Cuban once said to "put your in the bank. The stock market is probably the worst investment vehicle out there. NEVER put your money in something where you don’t have an information advantage. Why invest your money in something because a broker told you to? If the broker had a clue, he/she wouldn’t be a broker, they would be on a beach somewhere."

While I agree with him generalizing, if someone is savvy enough, you can create an informational advantage.

I'll tell you a slightly off-topic story on how I made my first $20k in college, before I had my start-up company:

At that time (circa '02-'03), I was a 21 year old college student that had been following Rambus for a few years. Eventually, through studying it, and the explosion of the internet, I came upon a small group of wealthy investors. One of them lived in the city next to mine and had millions of shares in RMBS. He would always have one of his minions attend court sessions.

At an important point in RMBS' legal wrangling, we KNEW a decision was going to come out that day, we just didn't know when. So we created a private message board, with the idea that the lawyer friend would text one of us with the news and he would immediately post it to the board.

I spent the entire day skipping classes and pressing F5 to refresh the message board. At 6pm or so, the court clerk came out with a copy of the decision. The lawyer friend went to the last page to see the verdict and told us. We had 1 1/2 minutes to trade the stock before it was halted. I bought a lot of shares (for a semi-broke student anyway). The day after, the stock went from something like $15 to $30.

I made $20k in 1 day. Easiest money I made in my life (aside from selling my site to Microsoft). I was hooked from that point on.
 

chusteczka

Diamond Member
Apr 12, 2006
3,400
1
71
Regarding Rambus, I am not as informed about the situation as those involved but here is my take on why I have sold the small amount that I had invested in the company.

There is a lot of hype regarding this trial and hope for a wildly successful outcome. I expect a mitigated result; neither wildly positive nor wildly negative. It is also possible the decision will be made against the company with the best ability to pay the lawyer's fees.

I did not like Rambus's business practices in the early 2000's when they had the fastest memory available at 3-4 times the price of other memory. For me, their pricing behavior crossed the line into unethical territory.

The current trial is not an open and shut patent case. I believe that is a separate trial but am not certain. A clear intellectual property situation would not develop the excitement currently seen.

Apparently at some point, Rambus destroyed some of its paperwork. This action lends doubt to their case.

From the little I have read, the current trial is based on business developments that did not work out with an Intel contract allegedly due to leveraged business decisions made by Micron and Hynix. This is business and it does not surprise me that a company I see as "unethical" received the shaft in a business agreement.

I wish good luck for those invested. My understanding may be incorrect but I do not view this company in a good way. This is why I am resisting the hype to stay on the sidelines and merely watch with interest.

I also agree with FelixDeKat's and jessieqwert's comments above.

EDIT:
Also, I have strong appreciation for Azurik providing all the information he has. Thank you very much for your open communication and sharing your knowledge and thoughts. I respect that.
 
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SunnyD

Belgian Waffler
Jan 2, 2001
32,674
145
106
www.neftastic.com
I don't know why I didn't think of this sooner, and the concept never occurred to me, that deposits to investment accounts can take up to three business days. I was planning on getting some shares of Blockbuster before Dish's announcement tomorrow morning to hopefully ride the wave. Looks like that wont be happening.


Consider yourself lucky. BLOAQ down 17%+ after the announcement. To be honest, it's underwhelming. Dish's strategy is to offer this product ONLY to new and existing Dish subscribers - you can't get it without subscribing to their satellite service. That really limits any upside the offering has as it limits it to a small customer base.
 

chihlidog

Senior member
Apr 12, 2011
884
1
81
Strongly considering HP right now, they're a strong company that right now I think is bottoming out. Thoughts?
 

chusteczka

Diamond Member
Apr 12, 2006
3,400
1
71
HP seems to pick losers as CEO's. First Carly who destroyed R&D, then the womanizer, now the woman who destroyed eBay's reputation by increasing both selling fees and the difficulty to be a seller. IMO, the board is poorly managed and actively creates a company that I do not appreciate.

But then, my thoughts are often strongly against those of the mainstream so my opinion may provide poor guidance.
 

Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
Hi chusteczka,

Appreciate your comments. Just a quick (or not really quick note):

1. Ignore the articles written by Joel Rosenblatt, the journalist for Bloomberg. He has no idea what he is writing about and has an IQ of 10. I'm serious. You should meet him. Even his mistakes in his articles, he fails to correct. He mentioned Intel supporting the defendants' view point by writing about 2 low level Intel engineers, while ignoring the highest positioned Intel executive was on Rambus' side.

2. This isn't an intellectual property (IP) case, it just happens to be that Rambus is an IP company. It's a civil trial, where Rambus only needs to prove that their allegations are more likely true than not (as oppose to criminal trials where it is "beyond a reasonable doubt"). Rambus is alleging that the defendants (Micron and Hynix) took illegal actions in stifling competition, so this isn't "just business". It is illegal for companies to collude and price-fix in this manner.

What they did was teamed up and artificially lowered the price of another technology to become mainstream, colluded to reduce production of Rambus RAM (thus raising prices) to manufacturers like DELL. They did this consistently until Rambus RAM almost died. When Intel further pushed Rambus, Farhad Tabrizi, then the VP of Marketing of Hynix, wrote an e-mail that said, "...we almost killed Rambus and I ask that I go back to my RDRAM killing mode to squash it completely".

They (particularly Micron) took money that Intel invested in them to ramp up RDRAM for other things. Micron got paid half a billion dollars by Intel to produce RDRAM, and they instead bought an RDRAM factory from Toshiba and subsequently shut it down.

Micron, Hynix, Samsung and others have already pleaded guilty for fixing prices charged by the Department of Justice. Their executives have served jail time. This is a classic story of big corporations wanting to continue the old ways and not let a young start-up like Rambus enter and disrupt their market. They feared Rambus would get too closed to Intel and create a relationship that will dominate their memory foundry.

While I agree with your dislike of Rambus' RAM prices, I think your channeling your energy into the wrong company. RDRAM prices were controlled and manipulated to be 3x-4x higher because of Micron and Hynix, not because of Rambus. Rambus only charged 2% royalty for their design, which would never have made their RAM prices go up by that much.

EDIT: From a personal perspective, I hope the jury awards Rambus the full $4 billion dollars and find that the defendants were so grossly involved that the amount gets trembled (tripled) to $12 billion.

I don't think settlements will happen, but if it does, I think Rambus won't settle for anything less than $2 billion.

Judging from observations and reading the court documents, and seeing the jury reactions (they need 9 out of 12 juries), I think Rambus has a 70% chance of winning. I'm just not sure what the damage amount will be.
 
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chihlidog

Senior member
Apr 12, 2011
884
1
81
HP seems to pick losers as CEO's. First Carly who destroyed R&D, then the womanizer, now the woman who destroyed eBay's reputation by increasing both selling fees and the difficulty to be a seller. IMO, the board is poorly managed and actively creates a company that I do not appreciate.

But then, my thoughts are often strongly against those of the mainstream so my opinion may provide poor guidance.

Right. However, they're such a big player that I think they can and will recover to some degree. And my only angle is "will their stock go back up enough to make me money". To me, it seems that it will.

I've played the markets with virtual cash for a LONG time, but now that it's real money, my balls have shrunk a bit.
 
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