***Official*** 2011 Stock Market Thread

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TheNinja

Lifer
Jan 22, 2003
12,207
1
0
Netflix for a dead cat bounce? Near 52 week low at 116 with a 52 week high of almost 305. I gotta be able to catch a nice 5% bounce at some point, yes?
 

chihlidog

Senior member
Apr 12, 2011
884
1
81
Netflix for a dead cat bounce? Near 52 week low at 116 with a 52 week high of almost 305. I gotta be able to catch a nice 5% bounce at some point, yes?

I'm far from an expert, but look at the situation. Customers are leaving, annd they just announced new content not coming for a long time which sure sounded like a desperate move to me to try to retain some positive press.

I think it's going to keep falling. I could be totally wrong, but with all the competition I think investors just see Netflix as on its way out. Not sure we're going to see any bounce on this one at all unless something big is announced, like a new content license for a reasonable price.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,311
2,100
126
Netflix for a dead cat bounce? Near 52 week low at 116 with a 52 week high of almost 305. I gotta be able to catch a nice 5% bounce at some point, yes?

The is in a death spiral. It was richly valued when it was seen to have nearly unlimited potential. Right now it has issues. I would rather see a confirmed bottom (under $100?) before buying as I think NFLX is still a good company.

It is better to wait because people have been buying all the way down from $179 and have gotten badley burned.
 
Sep 29, 2004
18,665
67
91
I'm far from an expert, but look at the situation. Customers are leaving, annd they just announced new content not coming for a long time which sure sounded like a desperate move to me to try to retain some positive press.

I think it's going to keep falling. I could be totally wrong, but with all the competition I think investors just see Netflix as on its way out. Not sure we're going to see any bounce on this one at all unless something big is announced, like a new content license for a reasonable price.

Lcoal nespapers have the same problem when they put up pay walls. There is often a backlash, but subscribership typcially improves after the intial backlash. Chances are, we have seen all of the backlash that there will be. And I think they lost like 3% of subscribers. Most people I know are not happy but I don't think a single person has unsubscribed.

netflix's mistake was how they changed pricing. You don't sell Coke (best of breed like Netflix) for $1/bottle then change the price to $2. You need to make 10% increases over time until you get to your target, then you make inflationary based adjustments. Netflix should have done this by taking on some debt (bond offering, whatever). maybe they investigated that route. But if they did consider a bond offering and a gradual price increase model, they have not said it to my knowledge.
 
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chihlidog

Senior member
Apr 12, 2011
884
1
81
Lcoal nespapers have the same problem when they put up pay walls. There is often a backlash, but subscribership typcially improves after the intial backlash. Chances are, we have seen all of the backlash that there will be. And I think they lost like 3% of subscribers. Most people I know are not happy but I don't think a single person has unsubscribed.

netflix's mistake was how they changed pricing. You don't sell Coke (best of breed like Netflix) for $1/bottle then change the price to $2. You need to make 10% increases over time until you get to your target, then you make inflationary based adjustments. Netflix should have done this by taking on some debt (bond offering, whatever). maybe they investigated that route. But if they did consider a bond offering and a gradual price increase model, they have not said it to my knowledge.


I agree with you, except in this situation you've got google, hulu, and most of all Amazon moving in on Netflix to deal with as well. Your newspaper example doesnt account for other publishers, other very RICH publishers, coming into town and trying to be king of the hill.

Netflix could recover if it werent for the other sharks looming. I know we werent discussing a full recovery, merely a bounce, but I feel strongly that this one will not unless, like I said, they make some sort of a major announcement bearing good news.
 
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chusteczka

Diamond Member
Apr 12, 2006
3,400
1
71
AMD stock just got nailed 13%. I'm gonna go in. Who's with me?

LoL at Intel17 considering purchasing AMD stock.

I was watching that price slide and giving it consideration but am out of play funds at the moment. Apparently, they are having production problems but I do not see this as a long term problem and consider the current price to be appropriate.

AMD Confirms 32nm Yield Issues at Global Foundries
 

chihlidog

Senior member
Apr 12, 2011
884
1
81
AMD's stock is going to drop even further IMO. All signs point to Bulldozer being a disappointment, and Llano has been out long enough that I doubt we're going to see any increase from that. I wanted to buy AMD stock, and have BD be a success, but I dont see it happening.
 

VenomXTF

Senior member
May 3, 2004
341
15
81
I sold all my shares in AMD at $6.20, would not recommend it until AMD turns shit around. I should of shorted AMD when I read about the yield issues, not good when your 2 major products are already delayed (Bulldozer/79xx series cards).
 

chusteczka

Diamond Member
Apr 12, 2006
3,400
1
71
Netflix's book value is about $6. They have been euphorically overpriced and now with the pyramid-scheme type pricing period finished, can easily drop into the $30-$50 range.
 

chusteczka

Diamond Member
Apr 12, 2006
3,400
1
71
I sold all my shares in AMD at $6.20, would not recommend it until AMD turns shit around. I should of shorted AMD when I read about the yield issues, not good when your 2 major products are already delayed (Bulldozer/79xx series cards).

I sold AMD as they were headed up about a year ago at $6.70 and missed the whole $8-$9 point. This whole period since that time has left me seriously confused about the market and only now that the market is falling (below my previous selling points) do I start to feel better about the market.

EDIT: s/proper/better/
 
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richardycc

Diamond Member
Apr 29, 2001
5,719
1
81
still no verdict for the RMBS trial? I guess if I were one of the jurors, I wouldn't want it to end until Friday...who the heck wanna go back to work on Friday, and for once, people actually care what they think, oh and those free lunches...
 

chihlidog

Senior member
Apr 12, 2011
884
1
81
still no verdict for the RMBS trial? I guess if I were one of the jurors, I wouldn't want it to end until Friday...who the heck wanna go back to work on Friday, and for once, people actually care what they think, oh and those free lunches...

Nobody I know likes jury duty. I very much doubt anyone is dragging it out. One never knows the minutia a jury may be stuck on.
 

chihlidog

Senior member
Apr 12, 2011
884
1
81
BofA just announced they're going to implement a $5 monthly fee for debit cards. Ready to watch the price drop even further?
 
Mar 10, 2006
11,715
2,012
126
What the...? REALLY? Shit.

Also, y'all really should get onboard with AMD. Don't think like enthusiasts -- think like investors. The supply problem means that they have more demand than supply -- meaning their product is solid.
 
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Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
still no verdict for the RMBS trial? I guess if I were one of the jurors, I wouldn't want it to end until Friday...who the heck wanna go back to work on Friday, and for once, people actually care what they think, oh and those free lunches...

No verdict yet, this is the 5th day of jury deliberations. BTW, due to California budget issues, court is not in session on Fridays, so the next time they would meet up would be Monday.

I bought another 200 shares at $14.13. 16,200 shares and counting. I think this tops the most Rambus shares I have ever owned at once.

I have a feeling the verdict is imminent, but maybe it's my mind fooling me since I don't want to buy more put options once these weekly ones I have expire tomorrow.
 

chihlidog

Senior member
Apr 12, 2011
884
1
81
No verdict yet, this is the 5th day of jury deliberations. BTW, due to California budget issues, court is not in session on Fridays, so the next time they would meet up would be Monday.

I bought another 200 shares at $14.13. 16,200 shares and counting. I think this tops the most Rambus shares I have ever owned at once.

I have a feeling the verdict is imminent, but maybe it's my mind fooling me since I don't want to buy more put options once these weekly ones I have expire tomorrow.

Imminent as in today? Hope you're right, I'm eagerly awaiting the outcome on this one.
 

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
11,364
2,373
136
Netflix's book value is about $6. They have been euphorically overpriced and now with the pyramid-scheme type pricing period finished, can easily drop into the $30-$50 range.
all online companies have low book values, it's irrelevant to the stock's fair value. I wouldn't touch NFLX at $100 but I'd take a look at $70 if their subscriber growth returns.

What the...? REALLY? Shit.

Also, y'all really should get onboard with AMD. Don't think like enthusiasts -- think like investors. The supply problem means that they have more demand than supply -- meaning their product is solid.
I don't follow AMD but low yields does not mean excess demand. OTOH I am interested in INTC if it settles back to August lows.
 

Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
Imminent as in today? Hope you're right, I'm eagerly awaiting the outcome on this one.

They brought a projector into the courtroom now, and only allowed the lawyers to come in at first, but now it is open to the public. No idea what it's for. It could be the jury wants to see another piece of evidence for review, but that's unusual. They usually would just bring it to the jury room for review.

Verdicts are usually presented on a projector too... ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh! ONE TIME BABY!

Edit: They want to review Martinez video. Defendants object to this, want jury to read the transcript only.

P.S. You can follow me on Twitter with the link below. I can do live updates on my mobile phone easily that way.
 

chihlidog

Senior member
Apr 12, 2011
884
1
81
They brought a projector into the courtroom now, and only allowed the lawyers to come in at first, but now it is open to the public. No idea what it's for. It could be the jury wants to see another piece of evidence for review, but that's unusual. They usually would just bring it to the jury room for review.

Verdicts are usually presented on a projector too... ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh! ONE TIME BABY!

Edit: They want to review Martinez video. Defendants object to this, want jury to read the transcript only.

P.S. You can follow me on Twitter with the link below. I can do live updates on my mobile phone easily that way.

Done
 
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