***Official*** 2011 Stock Market Thread

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Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
Too bad it still won't make my calls worth anything

Congrats to you Azurik

Thanks Matt RMBS up over 5% afterhours - past $17+ now. I like buying the dip today, sure got lucky!

That's why I stayed away from banking my money on calls with RMBS, the schedule is too unpredictable. Although these protective puts I've been buying weekly is making a big dent into my profit. I might just go naked long shares.

Out of curiosity, what Oct calls did you buy?
 
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chusteczka

Diamond Member
Apr 12, 2006
3,400
1
71
That aftermarket trading cooled off quickly. Rambus revenue of $11 million over projected means little in comparison with the expected Micron earnings, which have already inflated the stock price.

My bad feeling about this company and their current situation continues. This feeling led me to sell 2/3's of the stocks I purchased a couple weeks ago. They were sold two days ago at $16.80. If I see the stock price bump above $16.80 again, the rest of those shares will be sold. Otherwise, I may hang in for the ride just in case. It will be more interesting to observe the situation if I am involved with ownership, even a little bit.


Disclaimer:
My education and experience is in engineering and NOT in finance. In no way am I qualified to provide any investment advice and what is provided is purely my misguided opinion.
 

Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
That aftermarket trading cooled off quickly. Rambus revenue of $11 million over projected means little in comparison with the expected Micron earnings, which have already inflated the stock price.

My bad feeling about this company and their current situation continues. This feeling led me to sell 2/3's of the stocks I purchased a couple weeks ago. They were sold two days ago at $16.80. If I see the stock price bump above $16.80 again, the rest of those shares will be sold. Otherwise, I may hang in for the ride just in case. It will be more interesting to observe the situation if I am involved with ownership, even a little bit.

There's nothing I like about MU as a company or their stock. I don't know why people are excited about their earnings, aren't they expected to lose money this quarter? They also have a potential big liability with this AT trial. They're a much bigger company for sure, but that doesn't mean anything in terms of the viability of the company and their prospects going forward.

Regarding your 2/3 of your RMBS shares that you sold, I just have to say every investor has to do what is comfortable and right for them. I'm glad you're making a profit out of this and hopefully you sell your other position for additional gains.

I disagree with your bad feelings though. There's a lot of corruption in this world, and what the memory manufacturers have done have been a lot worse than what RMBS has done. Unfortunately, big companies control the press and have more power than the little guys and that often paints RMBS in a poor light. Micron is painting RMBS in a bad light and trying to make a mountain out of a mole hill.

I remain confident about the AT trial and the ITC proceedings. I'm not exactly sure what I feel with the Judge Whyte vs Judge Robinson debacle. I don't think the CAFC has done anything to fix it and remain convinced that Robinson is either incompetent or lazy (she just had another case remanded back to her, calling her decisions out of order more or less).
 
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chusteczka

Diamond Member
Apr 12, 2006
3,400
1
71
Let's say Rambus wins this Micron case with a large financial reward, maybe $2-4 billion or even more. What will happen then? Will Rambus start paying dividends to their shareholders? If so, will the payout be pennies over several years or a large, one time payment? Why should short term stock owners reap the reward when others have waited for this moment for 12 years?

I expect the company's executive officers will reward themselves heavily, and possibly quit the company afterward but it does not really matter whether they stay or go. They have worked and stressed over this issue for many years. This is their retirement plan and they will most likely milk everything they can from Rambus. I see only a decreasing future potential for this company after this Micron case decision completes.

Rambus appears to be a heavily saturated game with few rewarding opportunities for shareholder's. The stock price may surge upwards for a short time but executive reward seeking will inevitably drain the company and the funds will quietly disappear while the executives sell their ownership stock shares at an over-saturated price. The stock price will then drop as shareholders are left empty handed.

Does anyone disagree with my thoughts? I would like to hear a more positive outlook for this company.

Disclaimer:
My education and experience is in engineering and NOT in finance. In no way am I qualified to provide any investment advice and what is provided is purely my misguided opinion.


EDIT:
A more positive possibility is the executives receive a bonus, shareholders receive a nice dividend, and the rest of the funds stay in the company as an asset for future investment. The future investment could then serve as a realistic foundation for the inflated stock price.
 
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chusteczka

Diamond Member
Apr 12, 2006
3,400
1
71
...

Regarding your 2/3 of your RMBS shares that you sold, I just have to say every investor has to do what is comfortable and right for them. I'm glad you're making a profit out of this and hopefully you sell your other position for additional gains.

I disagree with your bad feelings though. There's a lot of corruption in this world, and what the memory manufacturers have done have been a lot worse than what RMBS has done. Unfortunately, big companies control the press and have more power than the little guys and that often paints RMBS in a poor light. Micron is painting RMBS in a bad light and trying to make a mountain out of a mole hill.

I remain confident about the AT trial and the ITC proceedings. I'm not exactly sure what I feel with the Judge Whyte vs Judge Robinson debacle. I don't think the CAFC has done anything to fix it and remain convinced that Robinson is either incompetent or lazy (she just had another case remanded back to her, calling her decisions out of order more or less).

You have been very helpful with the information you have provided, Azurik. You and your comments are much appreciated.

I have bought and sold RMBS stock twice now for modest profit, mostly based off your information and steadfast belief in this company. It is true that investing remains personal based on our own individual decisions as it must since no one can tell the future. I find myself not believing in the company enough to hold their stock after purchase. I get nervous with this company and this has prompted me to sell twice now.


EDIT:
I admit to questioning Rambus' decision to destroy documents. This may have been associated with another case but suggests questionable behavior. No matter how strongly Rambus cries foul, destroying their own records, whether on purpose or accidental, questions the integrity of the company.
 
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Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
EDIT:
I admit to questioning Rambus' decision to destroy documents. This may have been associated with another case but suggests questionable behavior. No matter how strongly Rambus cries foul, destroying their own records, whether on purpose or accidental, questions the integrity of the company.

Every company has a document retention policy, to get rid of all the paperwork that adds up over the years. The manufacturers like to use the word "destroy" because it's a more destructive and negative sounding word. They claim that Rambus destroyed paperwork that would have helped them in their case, yet, in the past decade, they have not recovered ONE document that Rambus didn't provide to them during trial discovery or they claimed was destroyed. A rationale person would believe if they destroyed so many documents, Micron or Hynix would have had at least one document that Rambus didn't provide or destroyed.

Judge Whyte exonerated Rambus on this. Judge Robinson, however, somehow has claimed Rambus did destroy documents without further explaining what exactly they did wrong outside of the normal retention policy of companies.

How do you ask a person/company to prove "case sensitive" documents that didn't exist?

"Azurik, I know you burnt some important files in that cabinet, but if they weren't important, prove to me they are not."

EDIT: BTW, I don't think RMBS is a pure angel either. I've been in business too long to be naive that a company is pure white snow. By far though, the actions of the manufacturers are a lot worse than what Rambus has ever done. Corruption. Stifling innovation. Price-fixing. Colluding. Department of Justice fines. Jail time. Rambus executives have never been found guilty of any of this.
 
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chusteczka

Diamond Member
Apr 12, 2006
3,400
1
71
Azurik, you provide convincing statements that give me reason to consider purchasing again if the price drops.

I am really fickle with Rambus...
 

Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
Azurik, you provide convincing statements that give me reason to consider purchasing again if the price drops.

I am really fickle with Rambus...

Not trying to sway your opinion chustecka, just rationalizing/reasoning publicly why I am able to tolerate the amount of risk that I do.

I don't claim to be right in everything Rambus, but the Rambus story that makes the most sense is the one I have believed in. Even then, things can go against Rambus and this year would be a really bad year for me. I'm not on margin or leveraging money borrowed elsewhere, but it's still a very significant portion of my net worth.

I, just like you did, could have sold out now for a nice gain, but I didn't invest my time/energy in this saga for a small pay off, and the AT trial only reaffirms what I really believe happened to Rambus.

Besides, you can't be rich playing small. And worse comes to worse, I'll be depressed for some time, but I'll get over it... but let's not talk about that possible scenario. Me retiring at a young age in Cabo is a much nicer thought
 

Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
http://www.simmtester.com/page/news/shownews.asp?num=14269

Rambus/Hynix case enters into climax
Friday, October 21, 2011

The jury is still out trying to work out if Hynix Semiconductor and Micron Technology conspired to push Rambus out of the memory-chip market.

Yesterday it asked to have a look at the trial testimony of Farhad Tabrizi, a former Hynix executive.

According to California Superior Court Judge James McBride, the jury was very interested in Tabrizi's testimony.

Tabrizi claimed he was "pressured to become more upbeat about" Rambus-designed dynamic random access memory chips, or RDRAM, at a May 2000 chip industry forum. Rambus lawyers questioned Tabrizi, a former Hynix vice president of worldwide marketing, "extensively" about whether his enthusiasm was "genuine."

Tabrizi was not the most terse witness, the judge said, and he "tended to fold in a lot of topics in any answer," which produced objections from lawyers during the trial, McBride said.

Rambus claims that Micron and Hynix colluded to cut the prices of their own SDRAM, or synchronous dynamic random access memory chips and deserted their commitment to produce RDRAM, relegating it to a niche role.

It thinks it could have earned $3.95 billion in royalties without the alleged conspiracy. Under California law, a jury finding of damages in that amount would be automatically tripled to $11.9 billion.

Hynix and Micron told the court that Rambus has only itself to blame for the flaws and production delays that led to the failure of its product to become an industry standard.

According to Business Week, Tabrizi was asked whether he was promoted to vice president of worldwide marketing after engaging in a campaign from 1995 to 1998 that he called "RDRAM killing."

Tabrizi told the court that the term meant that he promoted an "open standard" for DRAM in opposition to Rambus's proprietary and licensed product.

However, Rambus lawyer Bart Williams waived a 1998 e-mail under his nose in which Tabrizi responded to an Intel request for Hynix's estimates of its quarter-by-quarter RDRAM production. "My recommendation is to show bigger number than the actual plan, maybe even two to three times," Tabrizi wrote in the message.

Tabrizi testified that, if he provided Intel with the actual production numbers, Intel would have produced fewer processors compatible with RDRAM. He claimed that Chipzilla wanted to create an over-supply of RDRAM so the prices went artificially low. He said he did not want to give that pleasure to Intel.

Tabrizi admitted that it was possible during an October 1998 meeting that he told representatives of other chip manufacturers, including Micron, to overstate RDRAM production.
 

chipy

Golden Member
Feb 17, 2003
1,469
2
81
the above is a little confusing to me towards the end.

so Tabrizi (working for Hynix) told Intel they were going to produce more than what they were planning... because he didn't want Intel to produce less RDRAM-compatible processors. what does Intel's production of RD-RAM compatible processors have anything to do with this?

and he says Intel wanted to artifically lower RDRAM prices... and he did not want to give that pleasure to Intel. that means Tabrizi was in favor of RDRAM? but wasn't he the one that wanted to give inflated production numbers... which would have caused lower prices?

that part confuses me.
 
Mar 10, 2006
11,715
2,012
126
I would stay away from Rambus and Micron and all these DRAM vendors. Their P/Es are high, their margins suck, and this legal stuff is CRAZY.

AMD reports earnings this week...*gulp*.
 

Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
the above is a little confusing to me towards the end.

so Tabrizi (working for Hynix) told Intel they were going to produce more than what they were planning... because he didn't want Intel to produce less RDRAM-compatible processors. what does Intel's production of RD-RAM compatible processors have anything to do with this?

and he says Intel wanted to artifically lower RDRAM prices... and he did not want to give that pleasure to Intel. that means Tabrizi was in favor of RDRAM? but wasn't he the one that wanted to give inflated production numbers... which would have caused lower prices?

that part confuses me.

1. The jury requested Tabrizi's testimony again because he's a "LSOS" (lying sack of sh*t), as one juror in a previous 37-0 trial win for RMBS vs HYNIX labeled him.

2. Tabrizi was NEVER in favor of RDRAM. Intel was looking for specific RDRAM production numbers from the manufacturers, so Intel would allegedly lower production of their chipsets that used RDRAM, in order to create an over supply of RDRAM chips and thus lower the prices (supply exceeding demand). Tabrizi didn't want this to happen, so instead, he gave Intel forecast of 2x-3x their actual production numbers, so Intel would have lowered their chipset production based on overstated numbers from Hynix and others.

Makes sense?
 

The-Noid

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2005
3,117
0
76
Just heresay, but I still have my fingers crossed!

Lots of studies regarding participation, breadth and depth related to how much the market goes up for confirmation.

having said that none of them appear to matter in a time when high frequency trading has the algos all programmed to the exact same technical levels.

To think one can win against the high frequency guys is a joke.
 

Miramonti

Lifer
Aug 26, 2000
28,651
100
91
netflix cracks $100 after $62m rev (/edit: profit that is, $1.16/eps)...currently 100.17.
 
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Sep 29, 2004
18,665
67
91
Interesting American Greed episode right now (show on CNBC). About a guy who "found pump and dumps" in the 90s and shorted them. He had subscribers on the internet pay $600/month for subscriber fees.

Online he bragged about his gains. And people believed him.

Those fees accounted to him taking in over $1 million a year in subscriber fees.

Eventually it was found that he was getting some insider information. The FBI won.
 
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Sep 29, 2004
18,665
67
91
USG up 15% today.

I think USG updated their shipped drywall numbers for the quarter. Still no change. Stuck at 1,000,000 board feet.
 
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Sep 29, 2004
18,665
67
91
Lots of studies regarding participation, breadth and depth related to how much the market goes up for confirmation.

having said that none of them appear to matter in a time when high frequency trading has the algos all programmed to the exact same technical levels.

To think one can win against the high frequency guys is a joke.

Value investors have been beating the recent fads for almost 100 years.

Knowing someone from Wall Street that retired 10 years ago. He basically told me before high frequency trading, you could buy ABC on one exchange for $1 and at the same exact time sell it for $1.05 on another exchange. That's what they used to do. Today, the margins are less than a penny making it pointless. And it is all computerized to. That's the market all this HFT crap is into. Just getting those tiny little margins. I quite frankly think it should be outlawed or taxed extensively. Ya, those 1%ers are creating jobs. Bull shit.
 
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SunnyD

Belgian Waffler
Jan 2, 2001
32,674
145
106
www.neftastic.com
Netflix down to $87.xx as of 7:59pm EST. 27% shaved off in after hours trading. I have a feeling Reed Hastings might be squirming a little now.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
Value investors have been beating the recent fads for almost 100 years.

Knowing someone from Wall Street that retired 10 years ago. He basically told me before high frequency trading, you could buy ABC on one exchange for $1 and at the same exact time sell it for $1.05 on another exchange. That's what they used to do. Today, the margins are less than a penny making it pointless. And it is all computerized to. That's the market all this HFT crap is into. Just getting those tiny little margins. I quite frankly think it should be outlawed or taxed extensively. Ya, those 1%ers are creating jobs. Bull shit.

That's stupidly beautiful. I realized when I started trading that if I had a cold million and bought that much at once, I could just buy and set a sell order for every time it went up 0.1%. That'd make me $980 post comission. Just count the number of times that happens in a day and you're set for life.
 
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