***Official*** 2011 Stock Market Thread

[Miramonti]

Just a heads up for those that might be a brain damaged trader like me, some leveraged ETF's:

BGZ
MWN
TZA
ERY
FAZ
TYP
DPK
EDZ

I traded FAZ a little today, and if the market collapses as I suspect it will, there's some $ to be made here...

Definitely not for the faint of heart, and be damn careful, the leveraged ETF's can really damage your portfolio if you're wrong... Short trades only and if you're like me, in and out in the same day if at all possible...

These are all pretty much the same thing, an indexed etf, inverted so buying is actually shorting the index, and shorting is buying the index...except higher leverage (volatility)...not sure how that is calculated.

ERY was 11.50 a couple days ago, now is 14.21...When the broad market sold off at points over the past few months, it hit 28...maybe it uses LOG somewhere to calculate? fascinating.

Out of all these, I think I'll track ERY for the fun of it.

 

[SSSnail]

If you're trading leveraged funds, why not straddle FAZ and FAS. Either way you win, if you play it right. :awe:

 

[chihlidog]

Just took a small gamble on THQ this morning, it was steady at right around $2.25 for weeks and I bought at $1.99 this morning. I've been watching that one for a while and even mentioned here I'd been thinking about grabbing some, finally went ahead and did it.

I wish I would have went with my gut and bought AMD right at BD's launch at $4.86.

 

[Miramonti]

If you're trading leveraged funds, why not straddle FAZ and FAS. Either way you win at anything in life, if you play it right. :awe:

ftfy

 

[Azurik]

I was just informed a piece of paper was given to the judge by the jury via the court. A lot of top executives from Hynix/Micron just showed up... could be something, could be not. I need to pee though and can't...

EDIT 4:33pm - Rambus is also present.

EDIT 4:40pm - Nothing huge going on after hours, but there is a noticeable bump up.

EDIT 4:55pm - Judge McBride just hastily entered the AT courtroom from another courtroom.

EDIT 5:22pm - They just allowed the public in.

EDIT 5:23pm - Waiting for Judge McBride to enter courtroom from chambers. It's pretty close to end of the jury's shift.

EDIT 5:26pm - Judge asked if everything was ok and they jury responded yes. The note was the jury requesting Thursday off. Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh...

 

[Miramonti]

EDIT 5:23pm - Judge asked if everything was ok and they jury responded yes. The note was the jury requesting Thursday off. Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh...

"NO!"

 

[Azurik]

"NO!"

I wish he could ask how far along they are so I can trade accordingly

Judge asked if everything is ok and the jury stated yes, there was no problems, but, Jury #4, a lady, has a local election she needs to be part of. She requested and got Thursday afternoon off. The judge asked if they can come in early on Thursday to make up some of the time (8:00am) and all agreed.

She also requested next Tuesday off and the judge allowed it. Judge McBride then asked if she needed to take Monday off and she answered, "I don't think so."

Chatter in the hallway now is what she meant by that comment.

Judge reminded them that they are not to talk about this trial in smaller groups, only as a collective group... and not to do any investigating while at home, etc. He said he has "many spies" that sees and hears everything.

I think verdict next week. The anticipation......................................

 

[Nerva]

anyone short Trina Solar (TSL)? Mostly on weakness in polysilicon prices induced drop in average selling price. Likely to revise Q4 guidance downward when Q3 earnings come out. Stock is trading at 6.4x 2011 earnings, I think it's actually more like 10.7x.

 

[Azurik]

I just sold some RMBS Nov 4 $18 weekly covered calls for additional income. I don't think the stock will go much further than $18. If it hits a little over $18 and the shares gets called, I can just buy it back Monday morning and still profit.

I also don't think the decision will come out by this Friday (Jury off on Friday, taking half a day tomorrow). I just need to get through today and part of tomorrow!

 

[Miramonti]

I just sold some RMBS Nov 4 $18 weekly covered calls for additional income. I don't think the stock will go much further than $18. If it hits a little over $18 and the shares gets called, I can just buy it back Monday morning and still profit.

I also don't think the decision will come out by this Friday (Jury off on Friday, taking half a day tomorrow). I just need to get through today and part of tomorrow!

Your 18 calls won't likely get exercised until the put premium dissipates further, ie the stock goes closer to 19, or 18.50 and closer to expiration. Otherwise someone exercising the calls with lots of put premium would be essentially throwing the equivalent of the put premium away because it would be cheaper for them to sell the call in the open market and buy the stock outright. Not that this hasn't happened before tho...

/edit: just read "weekly" calls...learn something new every day, never heard of weekly expirations, lol... Same premise holds, but of course with a weekly expiration, that put is going to fade quick near expiration if it's out of the money. I don't know what the volatility is on these options, but must be pretty high with a verdict expected soon (good for selling )

 

[SunnyD]

meh... I knew I should have bought something yesterday... but I couldn't find any appealing targets.

 

[chihlidog]

My THQ bet paid off, bought at $1.99, hovering at $2.11 now. Wish I would have had more cash to throw at it.

EDIT: Just dropped all my RMBS (wasnt much at all but it was a net gain, so I'm happy).

 

[Imp]

meh... I knew I should have bought something yesterday... but I couldn't find any appealing targets.

Glad I didn't and won't... Even on huge landslides there are blips up. Hoping this one goes back now that all money for Greece is being withheld.

Let's see what happens Friday. They have a parliament vote of confidence - if the current government doesn't get voted out, then it's a referendum on whether Greece stays in the EU or not. Crashy crashy baby!

 

[Corporate Thug]

does anyone here buy stocks long? It sounds like everyone is always concerned about some news here and there. Pick good companies and the value of the stock will go up in the long run, simple as that.

 

[chusteczka]

I used to purchase stocks for holding a long time but with our country's social decline and corresponding economic decline, along with the majority of people being babyboomers removing their money from the stock market through retirement distributions, meaning more money is going out of the market than is going in, further meaning the market is declining and there is nothing we can do about it.

With that complex, run-on sentence in mind, there is no "long rise". The market will have bumps but will experience a long and slow decline overall. Even the good companies will have a nice big bump when their products sell well but with the majority of people pulling their money out of the market, (baby boomers again), the market will slowly sink, bringing down the potential of the strong performers.

This means, buy low when everyone is selling, holding, and saving, and sell at the highs when everyone is enjoying the seeming market resurgence.

I am predicting a strong bear market until our financial ruling class either starts taking better care of our country, or they are overthrown through constitutional amendments or other means. Or, we can wait for an eventual rebuilding of our market by starting the pyramid again at the bottom after the babyboomers die off and quite pulling their money out of the market.

 

[hiromizu]

does anyone here buy stocks long? It sounds like everyone is always concerned about some news here and there. Pick good companies and the value of the stock will go up in the long run, simple as that.

Yes, although it's never quite as simple as that :\

 

[KB]

does anyone here buy stocks long? It sounds like everyone is always concerned about some news here and there. Pick good companies and the value of the stock will go up in the long run, simple as that.

If only that were true. The last 10 years would show that that isn't the case. In the long run you break even. Maybe in the long, long run you make money.

I do have some long stocks: a local utility called Pepco, BP, Pitney Bowes but these are all big dividend payers. I don't make much money on them. They just keeping reinvesting the dividends buying me more shares which I will sell at the next bubble. Most of the money I have made as been in quick sales, like buying right before good earnings reports.

 

[Miramonti]

n/m

 

[Miramonti]

My THQ bet paid off, bought at $1.99, hovering at $2.11 now. Wish I would have had more cash to throw at it.

:thumbsup:

does anyone here buy stocks long? It sounds like everyone is always concerned about some news here and there. Pick good companies and the value of the stock will go up in the long run, simple as that.

So-called good stocks, ones proven over time, generally have very low betas, meaning they track very closely with the broad market, perhaps slightly outperforming it. So to invest in these, one is investing in the broad market, which is gone up in the long run but is also cyclical and involves tying up a lot of money for a lot of time with the hopes the market has a good year/s. I don't see the brilliance in doing that when volatility can take prices to such extremes in between, providing many more opportunities to buy stocks 'undervalued' or sell them 'overvalued.'

But to each one's own of course. People can make/lose money either way.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Dendreon....ahahhahahaaa

 

[Imp]

does anyone here buy stocks long? It sounds like everyone is always concerned about some news here and there. Pick good companies and the value of the stock will go up in the long run, simple as that.

I use to say hell no, but I'm trying a long-"er" term strategy now with 1/3 of my money, as in a few months to a year long.

Very long term is stupid to me. I know someone who bought a pretty stable oil stock for $38 about 3 years ago. It's since fallen to $15, back up o $46, back down to $25, then back up to $33.

What's the point of going long, if I can potentially x10 that in relative safety in the same amount of time. Key word is "potentially".

 

[Azurik]

Sold more weekly Nov 4 $18 calls on RMBS between .15 and .16 - the jury is about to head home for the long weekend. Barring any overnight settlements, I'll rake in income if RMBS hovers around $18.30 and under.

Probably do the same next week, Monday night into Wednesday morning since the jury is off on Tuesday and they don't start on Wednesday until 8:30am PST (2 hours after the market opens).

 

[Miramonti]

Dendreon....ahahhahahaaa

If we only put on the MDVN/DNDN spread yesterday.

 

[manly]

does anyone here buy stocks long? It sounds like everyone is always concerned about some news here and there. Pick good companies and the value of the stock will go up in the long run, simple as that.

I'm long AAPL, although I believe most of their spectacular stock run is over. Should've picked up some new positions at the end of Q3, but hesitated just at the cyclical bottom.

The OP is a self-described value investor.

 

[Miramonti]

Sold more weekly Nov 4 $18 calls on RMBS between .15 and .16 - the jury is about to head home for the long weekend. Barring any overnight settlements, I'll rake in income if RMBS hovers around $18.30 and under.

Probably do the same next week, Monday night into Wednesday morning since the jury is off on Tuesday and they don't start on Wednesday until 8:30am PST (2 hours after the market opens).

Just curious...you mentioned you don't think the stock will do much >$18, and you're selling covered calls which can earn some additional premium at this price but also locks in your max profit for those covered shares. The premium can earn you some extra $ but you're still long the stock and heavily exposed on the downside after the ruling.

If you don't think it's going higher, why not liquidate some shares? On the other hand, if you want to ride out the ruling and don't mind being exposed on the downside, don't you also want to have unlimited upside potential?

Like I said, just curious and being of analytical nature, and not 'questioning' or suggesting anything.