***Official*** 2011 Stock Market Thread

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Miramonti

Lifer
Aug 26, 2000
28,651
100
91
This is a lesson to everyone...be right.

We'll need a volunteer in a few weeks to start the official 2012 stock market thread.

Seriously tho, AZ had some 14 puts to soften the blow and fortunately this atleast came out before those expired. Hang in there AZ!
 

The-Noid

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2005
3,117
0
76
This is a lesson to less experienced traders...be right.

We'll need a volunteer in a few weeks to start the official 2012 stock market thread.

Seriously tho, AZ had some 14 puts to soften the blow and fortunately this atleast came out before those expired.

This is a lesson in the judge effect and buying lottery tickets. Vulture capital goes through it on a daily basis.
 

zimu

Diamond Member
Jun 15, 2001
6,210
0
0
Not surprised about this outcome at all. RMBS has been nothing but hot air. Can we PLEASE now once and for all not ever mention it again on this forum? Azurik - you're probably the one cause for hyping the stock up. Please, just let it go now?

CIM was a great call, quickest dollar I made - I definitely wouldn't have heard about these guys had it not been for this board, so thank you chusteczka
 

The-Noid

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2005
3,117
0
76
Not surprised about this outcome at all. RMBS has been nothing but hot air. Can we PLEASE now once and for all not ever mention it again on this forum? Azurik - you're probably the one cause for hyping the stock up. Please, just let it go now?

CIM was a great call, quickest dollar I made - I definitely wouldn't have heard about these guys had it not been for this board, so thank you chusteczka

Bah!
 
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Miramonti

Lifer
Aug 26, 2000
28,651
100
91
Not surprised about this outcome at all. RMBS has been nothing but hot air. Can we PLEASE now once and for all not ever mention it again on this forum? Azurik - you're probably the one cause for hyping the stock up. Please, just let it go now?

CIM was a great call, quickest dollar I made - I definitely wouldn't have heard about these guys had it not been for this board, so thank you chusteczka

No need for anyone to be an @ss about it. Hindsight is 20/20.

I still have respect for AZ, he was wise and strong along the way the last few years, just didn't work out in the end on this one. He'll recover and when he does, he can trade whatever the fvck he wants to and post about it.
 
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JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
jesus http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=RMBS111119P00011000

I have to say I admit I was surprised on the verdict. Being on a jury myself, pretty easy to convince lay people against the big bad corporation.

I did, however, pass on a play this time exactly because this is what I feared. Even if they won I don't think RMBS would have went up more than 25%.
 

The-Noid

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2005
3,117
0
76
No need for anyone to be an @ss about it. Hindsight is 20/20.

I still have respect for AZ, he was wise and strong along the way the last few years, just didn't work out in the end on this one. He'll recover and when he does, he can trade whatever the fvck he wants to and post about it.

The only thing I don't like is that RMBS was/is a lottery ticket. For the individual investor it's going to be way beyond what they can handle and what they expect. Without really understanding what you are buying, it is hard to go home from work and realize you lost 60% on an investment in a day.
 

chusteczka

Diamond Member
Apr 12, 2006
3,400
1
71
Concerning RMBS, when the market suspended trading, they took away Azurik's effort in sitting in the courtroom in an attempt to gain an insider advantage.

This verdict surprised me. I thought it would have a median result with neither company gaining or losing. I am happy to have gotten out profitably a few months ago but I have still been eagerly awaiting the verdict and hoping I did not miss an opportunity to get rich.


Any advice for someone looking to jump into stock trading? I'm only 19, but i'd like to get a head start and invest in some technology related corps. I was looking to sign up for eTrade and peek around. I have up to $1K to possibly invest.
You just stepped in the middle of a dramatic moment that has been building for several years. Because of this, you will receive few replies.

My recommendation is to stick with a company having products you are familiar with and like. Something I do is read Smart Money magazine. A monthly column titled "Stock Screen" by Jack Hough provides very good company introductions that have worked well for me. The $20 magazine subscription is well worth it and pays for itself after the first successful sale. Take your time and let opportunities present themselves to you, recognize these opportunities, and use them to your advantage.

At the age of 19, start reading a monthly magazine now. Ask your parents to give you a subscription for Christmas or your birthday. My mom bought me a subscription to Money Magazine when I was 16 and it was easily the best investment my mom ever made, for me and for her. For example: Smart Money, Money Magazine, and Kiplinger are good ones to start with. Follow recommendations concerning funds and stocks, and watch how these funds and stocks perform over time; yearly, monthly, weekly, and daily (in that order). Start cautiously following magazine recommendations until you gain experience over time; typically 8-15 years worth of time.

For example, I purchased an OCZ SSD v.III drive a few months ago and liked it. It worked well at a time when many people were declaring it as junk. I figured with a new good product and a poor reputation, their stock would be underpriced and expected strong future sales. I purchased stock and the next earnings report confirmed my expectations, resulting in a quick stock price increase. However, I sold too quickly at a 10% gain and OCZ kept climbing after for another 40%. I should have held longer.

This is the ideal method of investing and the best to start with.

Put some stocks you are interested in, into a personal list on Google Finance and check on them periodically. Pay attention to how various things affect the prices; such as seasons, weather, holidays, politics, the Presidential election, the economy, and especially how the market reacts after news is published like jobs reports or Federal Bank decisions to change interest rates.
 

darkxshade

Lifer
Mar 31, 2001
13,749
6
81
I'm too long OCZ, I got in on STEC as well when they tanked. I'm buying up SSD stocks on the idea that there's a lot of growth in there. It will eventually be a staple in every new PC build.
 

chusteczka

Diamond Member
Apr 12, 2006
3,400
1
71
Not surprised about this outcome at all. RMBS has been nothing but hot air. Can we PLEASE now once and for all not ever mention it again on this forum? Azurik - you're probably the one cause for hyping the stock up. Please, just let it go now?

CIM was a great call, quickest dollar I made - I definitely wouldn't have heard about these guys had it not been for this board, so thank you chusteczka
No need for anyone to be an @ss about it. Hindsight is 20/20.

I still have respect for AZ, he was wise and strong along the way the last few years, just didn't work out in the end on this one. He'll recover and when he does, he can trade whatever the fvck he wants to and post about it.

I agree with the fact that Azurik has been extremely honest and forthcoming with information. He exposed his risk for our benefit and I have much respect for him. He changed this thread from a brag thread to an open informational thread. Azurik is one of the good guys. Not everyone is willing to research, follow, and put themselves into a company like he has done these last few years.

Regarding CIM, thank you. I am happily embarrassed and happy that Ms. Dickinson mentioned it. Otherwise I would have kept watching and not acted on the price drop.
 

SunnyD

Belgian Waffler
Jan 2, 2001
32,674
145
106
www.neftastic.com
Not surprised about this outcome at all. RMBS has been nothing but hot air. Can we PLEASE now once and for all not ever mention it again on this forum? Azurik - you're probably the one cause for hyping the stock up. Please, just let it go now?

CIM was a great call, quickest dollar I made - I definitely wouldn't have heard about these guys had it not been for this board, so thank you chusteczka

That was completely uncalled for.

#1 - This is the stock market. Things like this happen on a daily basis, you're bound to have good days and you're bound to have bad days.

#2 - IMHO, given Micron, Hynix, et'al have already settled and all but admitted to price fixing in the other case, I'm pretty shocked of the verdict myself, especially given some of the evidence. Obviously, the majority of the jury felt that Micron and Hynix weren't intentionally trying to harm Rambus (directly).

#3 - I have no doubt that even long term, RMBS is a decent stock to hold. It has fluctuated between $5-25/share several times over the last few years, this case not withstanding. I'm sure at the very least near team I'll personally break even. This is just a market knee-jerk reaction once again.
 
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V00DOO

Diamond Member
Dec 2, 2000
3,817
2
81
Finally made a right decision and got out RMBS last week for some profits. Thanks Azurik and I am sorry for your lost.
 

darkxshade

Lifer
Mar 31, 2001
13,749
6
81
Maybe people are just tired of our litgious society and Rambus is a victim of natural assumption that those who are suing are just doing so to make money regardless of its merits. They should thank the likes of Apple for that... no they should sue them for ruining it for the honest folk.
 

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
11,364
2,373
136
That was completely uncalled for.
eh? Granted it was in jest, but you yourself earlier made an off color joke!

Re: Rambus' business model, one man's IP licensor is another man's patent troll. It's certainly not black and white.
 

Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
First, thanks for all the support in this thread, along with the phone calls and e-mails I have received.

Right now, I'm going through a whirlwind of thoughts... the standard should have, would have, could have. I had a 10 minute window to buy more put options for so cheap this would have been profitable, but I was at lunch.

A 9-3 decision in favor of the defendants, after what I've heard in court and know about the story from researching the past 10+ years, baffles me. It makes the Samsung settlement with Rambus for $900 million before the trial look really good right now, even though I thought they got away for so little settlement money.

It's a six-figure loss for me, so it hurts pretty badly. Luckily, I had those $14 puts to buffer my losses, but when your put protection is up 13,800% something is obviously bad with the stock.

In perspective, this will take me some time to swallow. I can think that it's only money and that the losses were mostly profits from RMBS through the years, trading shares in and out as the stock has been range bound from $5-$35, but at the present time that doesn't help much.

FYI, JS80, mentally, I had a complete loss bringing RMBS down around this area, and a win, would have sent the stock over $35+. Right before the halt, even though the share price wasn't going crazy, option prices spelled out clearly that it was going to be a violent move in either direction.

Anyways, I'm sorry for those that suffered losses with me, and with time, hopefully it's just a speed bump in increasing our net-worth.
 
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SunnyD

Belgian Waffler
Jan 2, 2001
32,674
145
106
www.neftastic.com
eh? Granted it was in jest, but you yourself earlier made an off color joke!

Re: Rambus' business model, one man's IP licensor is another man's patent troll. It's certainly not black and white.

There's a difference between patent trolls and IP companies that are actively developing and licensing new technologies.

And yes, I apologize for the figurative jest on Azurik's mindset - I knew it would be a rather substantive loss. But there's a huge difference between poking a little fun versus flat out calling someone a fraud, which is what zimu was implying.
 

The-Noid

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2005
3,117
0
76

First off, you will be fine.

Second, my first job for two years was a vulture capital/restructuring fund that attempted to take bankrupt or near bankrupt companies and do prepackaged bankruptcies and debtor-in-possession financing. What I learned almost instantly is that whatever you think is going to happen, won't. Trying to explain complex situations to those who don't understand them (in our case it was always the judge) is near impossible. RMBS has a problem in that they deal with litigation that is beyond the people who are involved in it, that has always been my investment thesis.

Finally, you NEVER EVER think about the amount that you lost, only that you lost and you learn something from it. The worst loss I have ever had was a company called Thornburg mortgage buying on a 50 odd % dip, my thesis was that they only invested in customers with high average credit scores, high average incomes and generally jumbo and super jumbo mortgages in affluent areas. Even though I knew that the mortgage industry was having problems I felt they would make it through in better shape based on the overall quality of the collateral. As we know that was obviously wrong but I had an investment thesis, it just didn't work. You are going to have some that don't work but you have to learn things from it. That is the key.

Again, you will be fine. It is where you go from here that matters.
 

chusteczka

Diamond Member
Apr 12, 2006
3,400
1
71
Azurik, I hope you hold your RMBS shares and do not panic sell. The company remains solid and the shares are worth more than the $8 at which they are currently trading, I expect they are worth about $12 or so. (hmmm, is this a buy opportunity?) (EDIT: or maybe not, I do not know.)

They put you at an unexpected disadvantage by suspending trading. I bet you had a cell phone with an internet trading app ready to act quickly.

If I may offer some kind thoughts in hindsight. Be careful about blurring the line between investing and gambling. When you start feeling emotional about a stock; back off, relax, and rethink the situation. Keep in mind the Stock Price/Book Value ratio. Always be ready to walk away from sunk costs if something does not feel right. Unpublicized court cases will behave differently from well publicized cases.

The lyrics for the Kenny Rogers/Johnny Cash song, The Gambler, are now in my head.

Thank you very much for providing your information so willingly and openly. I enjoyed your enthusiasm and followed your example of talking openly in my discussion on CIM.

Be wary but not afraid of such risk in the future and may this experience provide reliable wisdom for future opportunities. I know this hurt you and wish you a quick recovery.
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,311
2,100
126
I warned you guys about RMBS over and over. Some of you thought it was easy money and in the bag. I told you RMBS could lose big time because I sat in on two patent cases and believe me whoever had the lawyers that put on a bigger show, with a bigger smile and nicer clothes with a forceful personality would win......facts be damned. There are so many facts that makes a juries head spin, it boils down to a popularity contest....and Rambus lost that one. Overconfidence and greed are deadly. RMBS is pretty much toast now.

Azurik, considering the one two punch of DNDN and RMBS I feel your pain. :'(

 
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JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
First, thanks for all the support in this thread, along with the phone calls and e-mails I have received.

Right now, I'm going through a whirlwind of thoughts... the standard should have, would have, could have. I had a 10 minute window to buy more put options for so cheap this would have been profitable, but I was at lunch.

A 9-3 decision in favor of the defendants, after what I've heard in court and know about the story from researching the past 10+ years, baffles me. It makes the Samsung settlement with Rambus for $900 million before the trial look really good right now, even though I thought they got away for so little settlement money.

It's a six-figure loss for me, so it hurts pretty badly. Luckily, I had those $14 puts to buffer my losses, but when your put protection is up 13,800% something is obviously bad with the stock.

In perspective, this will take me some time to swallow. I can think that it's only money and that the losses were mostly profits from RMBS through the years, trading shares in and out as the stock has been range bound from $5-$35, but at the present time that doesn't help much.

FYI, JS80, mentally, I had a complete loss bringing RMBS down around this area, and a win, would have sent the stock over $35+. Right before the halt, even though the share price wasn't going crazy, option prices spelled out clearly that it was going to be a violent move in either direction.

Anyways, I'm sorry for those that suffered losses with me, and with time, hopefully it's just a speed bump in increasing our net-worth.

I'm baffled by the verdict myself. I haven't been following the case but I have to assume RMBS gave a great case. Regardless, if anything this shows the unpredictability of juries.

Based on implied volatility of the options prior to the verdict, I think the stock would have done between $22 - $28. $35 is price when money begins to hit the bank account IMO. Regardless, they lost so this is all moot.

Sorry for your loss and I think we're all grateful that you shared all the due diligence with us. Ultimately it's up to us to make our own decisions, which you have consistently always communicated such, so fuck the haters.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,311
2,100
126
And now for my hot stock pick - short RMBS. Considering the stock is still trading @ 41x earnings, I suspect it will retouch the lows of 4'ish soon

I predicted sub $5 for RMBS in May 2011 and it came true, but it hit $18 before seeing $5. Now that both have been accomplished, I predict a sub $7 stock price at least until March 2012 or later.
 
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lothar

Diamond Member
Jan 5, 2000
6,674
7
76
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