***Official*** 2011 Stock Market Thread

[SSSnail]

I can sum it up in a few words "WAAAAAHHH,I WANT EVERYBODY TO USE MY STUFF!!!"

Everybody "NO!"

But MOMMY, they're all against me!!!

Case, dismiss.


What did you expect? Give monopoly to a single company?

 

[Pliablemoose]

Anyone else feel like the other shoe is going to drop in Europe and crater the markets?

Except for short gains (day trades), I'm about 95% cash right now...

 

[Arachnotronic]

Yep - you're missing a 10% workforce reduction (some 1500 bodies already accounted for) including several executives. Several high ranking execs having jumped ship earlier this year. Layoffs hitting both AMD and ATI branches of the company. Let's take a look also at AMD having completely changed strategies by divesting their foundries and becoming solely a design house over the past few years. Every one of their CPU products have been late to market over the last several years, and underwhelming in terms of performance.

No one is taking AMD seriously right now, investors included. They simply don't have anything to bring to the table.

Biggest thing regarding them being acquired - they INSTANTLY lose their rights to make x86 CPUs, which makes them unappealing as a buyout target as that's probably the most valuable asset they have left after ATI.

I'm sorry, their graphics technology doesn't bring anything to the table? Their APUs which provide a really solid value proposition for most of today's computer buyers?

And let's not forget Bulldozer. Yes right now it's not so great -- but the idea seems to be on solid ground. Imagine an APU with Bulldozer's interger performance and some seriously powerful GCN cores? In a world where we're saturated with CPU power, the focus is now on the GPU aspect for the mainstream.

Also, AMD could probably start licensing out their graphics tech or partnering with an ARM SoC designer to provide some seriously killer graphics.

All I'm saying is that AMD's sitting on a lot of good assets and a strong patent portfolio -- they just need a crack management team to push and make things happen. And with these layoffs and eventually replacements, I think it will.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Anyone else feel like the other shoe is going to drop in Europe and crater the markets?

Except for short gains (day trades), I'm about 95% cash right now...

It is one of my fears. I think that 2 years from now everything will be fine. I think there is just enough BS going on with corruption in eurpoe that the market could freak out and send everything south.

The thing is, if it does not crack, it could go up 15%.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I'm sorry, their graphics technology doesn't bring anything to the table? Their APUs which provide a really solid value proposition for most of today's computer buyers?

And let's not forget Bulldozer. Yes right now it's not so great -- but the idea seems to be on solid ground. Imagine an APU with Bulldozer's interger performance and some seriously powerful GCN cores? In a world where we're saturated with CPU power, the focus is now on the GPU aspect for the mainstream.

Also, AMD could probably start licensing out their graphics tech or partnering with an ARM SoC designer to provide some seriously killer graphics.

All I'm saying is that AMD's sitting on a lot of good assets and a strong patent portfolio -- they just need a crack management team to push and make things happen. And with these layoffs and eventually replacements, I think it will.

You're just looking for confirming evidence? As an investor you should be trying to figure out if and why your thesis is wrong.

Answer this for yourself.
1) Financially speaking, where has AMD been and where are they today?
2) Going forward what is going different and what does that mean in dolalrs and cents?

Assets and patents don't mean anything if you can not generate money. This is investment, not fandom.

 

[SunnyD]

I'm sorry, their graphics technology doesn't bring anything to the table? Their APUs which provide a really solid value proposition for most of today's computer buyers?

And let's not forget Bulldozer. Yes right now it's not so great -- but the idea seems to be on solid ground. Imagine an APU with Bulldozer's interger performance and some seriously powerful GCN cores? In a world where we're saturated with CPU power, the focus is now on the GPU aspect for the mainstream.

Also, AMD could probably start licensing out their graphics tech or partnering with an ARM SoC designer to provide some seriously killer graphics.

All I'm saying is that AMD's sitting on a lot of good assets and a strong patent portfolio -- they just need a crack management team to push and make things happen. And with these layoffs and eventually replacements, I think it will.

Name one consumer/end-user/commodity related activity outside of gaming that current graphics technology has a use for. Graphics is a known commodity, but the momentum in the industry is fading fast. We're back to trying to pack in as many transistors of current tech as possible again. Nvidia is more agile in the development of GPUs, being more fluid and willing to take risks. AMD is not.

Bulldozer has been compared, both financially AND technically to the Pentium 4. The only difference here is that the MHz race actually works in favor of AMD at this point since process technology has some near term potential. Bulldozer has been discussed to death in CPU, however, and without a guaranteed Intel-killer on the table in terms of performance, AMD has no potential in that market. Given Bulldozer just came out, AMD will be sitting on this architecture for at least 5-10 years (for ROI purposes) before coming out with something new and potentially more competitive while Intel pulls away even further. AMD isn't going to be getting and BD design wins any time soon.

None of this bodes well for AMD's shareholders in the long term. The only long-term gains you're going to see with AMD are simply following market trends anyway. There's no reason to pick AMD for an investment over any other company based on your criteria at this point.

Note: I root for AMD myself from a technological standpoint - but as an investor, watching a company continually late to market with underperforming/non-competitive products isn't going to get me to buy their stock.

 

[Arachnotronic]

All I know is, I've made a decent chunk of change running a PC-building business out of my dorm. When I go to pick the components that are ideal at the price points I build at (capable PCs for cash-strapped college students while still giving me a good profit margin), 9 times out of 10, I'm using an AMD processor, and 7 times out of 10 I'm using an AMD GPU.

There's a lot of value in AMD's products, and there's certainly demand for them. Right now their main issue is execution -- but my money's on that they will get execution in order. Furthermore, they seemed to have fired their dead-weight marketing team. With a better team, they could make some serious headway in the mobile PC market with Llano and in the desktop space with Llano/Bulldozer.

I'm not going to lie, AMD could very well mess it all up. But my money's on the idea that they will turn it around and see some real strength in the next few months. And for anyone else who believes this, this is the perfect time to invest in them -- while everyone else thinks they're doomed.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

You need to know that AMD has a proven managment for turning things around.

I'll be honest. It just seems like you are investing because you are a fan of AMD. You need to dig deeper. have you read the annual reports over the past 10 years? Investor presentations? Have they implemented their plans 100% in the past?

This gets to the point and it seems to pertain to AMD.
"When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for poor fundamental economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact." - Warren Buffett

 

[Arachnotronic]

*Points to sig*
*Running Intel CPU*
*NVIDIA GPU*

No, I'm not an AMD fan at all. I'm a fan of my net worth. And I stand by my claim that they are undervalued significantly.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I see why lothar didn't take the bait.

ahve a good day.

 

[Imp]

Anyone else feel like the other shoe is going to drop in Europe and crater the markets?

Except for short gains (day trades), I'm about 95% cash right now...

I was 90% cash up until 2 weeks ago. Now I'm about 55/45 in stocks/cash. The financials I'm buying are nearing their September to October lows, so I'm slowly edging in. I'm leaning towards a major Europe eff-up, but in the back of my mind, I don't really see it happening.

Regardless, I don't want to be "all in" either position (i.e Europe imploding and Europe okay). A 90% cash is essentially an "all in" bet that everything will be going to hell. If it doesn't, then you'll miss maybe 10-30% gains. If it does, my 50% cash could bail out the other half easily even if everything crashes 50% - buy near bottom and when I recover 25% of my original stocks, the new stocks will be up 50% (...something like that).

 

[JS80]

I don't follow AMD so here's my perspective as someone with a "fresh" look.

Looks like they are trading 5x EBITDA. 7x after capex. Not really priced for growth. Cheapish if they are forecasted for steady growth. Not bargain basement price if they are headed towards attrition.

New management seems to have stabilized the financials. But as a lay person knowing that the consumer trend is away from desktops and to tablets, I could see why AMD is priced the way it is.

They also seemed to shy away from smartphone chips/ARM...looks like they dropped the ball there and are past the point of no return. Compare them to NVDA, NVDA is much more appealing. If AMD loses the graphics contract to Apple, what future is left?

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Imp Strategy ++

Good idea. Might copy

 

[Arachnotronic]

I see why lothar didn't take the bait.

ahve a good day.

Do you honestly think I'm trolling? All right. Fine. I won't mention AMD again.

In other news, just bought 100 shares of T. Dividend stocks should be reasonably protected from any impending "financial doom". Especially since everybody needs phone service...

 

[JTsyo]

Now that we're done with AMD, how about nVidia? Does the stock price climb as release of a new chipset gets near? Kepler is coming in a few months and the price seems like there's room to grow. Looking back at the past 3 releases only the GTX 500 (nov 2010) saw a big jump in stock prices but I'm not sure if that was due to the new cards or something else.

 

[Arachnotronic]

Yeah, I'm thinking of NVDA as well. They're earning quite well, they've got a foothold in the GPU market & mobile, and they're leading in the HPC/GPGPU world.

I think there's room for them to fall before picking them up, though. I see lots of upside though...especially once Project Denver comes to fruition.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Do you honestly think I'm trolling? All right. Fine. I won't mention AMD again.

In other news, just bought 100 shares of T. Dividend stocks should be reasonably protected from any impending "financial doom". Especially since everybody needs phone service...

This might be harsh but I am in a rush and yadda yadda yadda.

No, I don't think you are trolling. I don't think you are willing to see the downside regarding AMD and don't have any understanding of the business or financial situation. The thing is, it seems like you don't care to learn about those issues.

You seem to recognize what you know about AMD. That's fine. As an investor it is more important to know what you don't know though and have a willingness to fill in those gaps.

I have a feeling that you didn't even know about the shareholder dilution and burning of cash and how those two are related. If you think a turnaround is to occur you need to know what products will cause it and what that means to Free Cash Flow.


Free cash flow (FCF) represents the cash that a company is able to generate after laying out the money required to maintain or expand its asset base. Free cash flow is important because it allows a company to pursue opportunities that enhance shareholder value. Without cash, it's tough to develop new products, make acquisitions, pay dividends and reduce debt.


You don't address questions. Have you read the annual reports?

I'm not trying to be a jerk. I am simply trying to show you the path. You have to decide to walk it.

 

[lothar]

I see why lothar didn't take the bait.

have a good day.

Yup. ^_^
Been taking that same bait every time it comes up the past 3-4 years. I'm done with it.

 

[Corporate Thug]

If I may -- never bet on a company because it's going to litigate itself to profit. I was a 10 year old kid when the Pentium 4 came out, and I remember that RDRAM sucked. It was high latency, expensive, and just crap. DDR was SUCH the better choice then. That's why RDRAM lost.

100% agree.

 

[Pliablemoose]

Anyone have any bright ideas for tomorrow?

I suspect RIMM will take a hit for selling the PlayBooks for $199 and the 7's not waking up from sleep. http://www.bgr.com/2011/11/19/blackberry-7-smartphones-dying-in-sleep-company-confirms/

The analysts say RIMM's assets are worth about $17/share or so, so it's a good bottom fishing play.

 

[Imp]

Anyone have any bright ideas for tomorrow?

I suspect RIMM will take a hit for selling the PlayBooks for $199 and the 7's not waking up from sleep. http://www.bgr.com/2011/11/19/blackberry-7-smartphones-dying-in-sleep-company-confirms/

The analysts say RIMM's assets are worth about $17/share or so, so it's a good bottom fishing play.

Tech company with genuine risk of going bankrupt in next few years = no thank you.

 

[Acanthus]

I'm looking at BONT.

They are basically breaking even for the year if the projections are on.

The stock dropped because a couple of higher ups retired and people lost confidence.

Macy's is certainly better at doing what BONT does, but they seem to be a profitable alternative for areas not large enough to support a Macy's.

They have a lot of debt from recent M&A's though. I see the uncertainty there.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Tomorrow? What is your investment horizon?

Hoping for a short term gain or expecting a long term gain where a short term gain could always happen?

 

[chipy]

based on whats going on in Europe, measures to thwart automatic cuts here in US, and general economy, do you guys see an upswing or you think the market is going south before turkey day?

i'm interested in trying-out of the below... maybe TZA if the Superduper Committee cant come up with anything?

Just a heads up for those that might be a brain damaged trader like me, some leveraged ETF's:

BGZ
MWN
TZA
ERY
FAZ
TYP
DPK
EDZ

...

 

[RbSX]

based on whats going on in Europe, measures to thwart automatic cuts here in US, and general economy, do you guys see an upswing or you think the market is going south before turkey day?

i'm interested in trying-out of the below... maybe TZA if the Superduper Committee cant come up with anything?

Sorry, was your first question a joke? Obvious downside is obvious. The market has been trading sideways for the last 2-3 weeks looking to break through or fall back.

Short short short.