***Official*** 2011 Stock Market Thread

[fisheerman]

Bought into verizon for 150 shares last year in May as a safe dividend play looking for some market clarity and stability in portfolio. At the time it was paying almost 7%. With the spinoff of FTR shares (think i got 36 shares) that have soured to 9.71 and the runup in verizon this stock has been one of my best performers of late 10'

Assume the runup is in part anticipation of the iphone release on verizon. Holding tight until then.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Yoxxy pretty much sums up why banks are risky unless you are very careful. Or jsut admit that you don't know enough and put them into the "to hard pile".

Persoanlly, I own WFC because of what Buffett has said about WFC. As for value, I took a look at EPS from 1998-2002 (pre-housing boom) and normalized it. Tacked on inflation to 2010 numbers. Considered some shareholder dilution(less than 10%). Gave it a conservative PE. And came up with IV in the $45-$50 ballpark for a safe bank. I sold some at $30. I'll add at under $25 or sell the rest at over $35.

 

[Azurik]

IHateMyJob2004,

Thanks for creating the 2011 thread - I was going to open it up this morning, but saw you had already did. I'm okay with breaking a 5-year ongoing tradition

You may have noticed that I haven't been as active lately. It's not because of my loss of interest, but life and other things have gotten mired in. I'm still checking in pretty frequently, but it's hard when I'm traveling all the time. 100,000 miles last year!

Here's for an interesting new year!

Azurik

 

[DaWhim]

IHateMyJob2004,

Thanks for creating the 2011 thread - I was going to open it up this morning, but saw you had already did. I'm okay with breaking a 5-year ongoing tradition

You may have noticed that I haven't been as active lately. It's not because of my loss of interest, but life and other things have gotten mired in. I'm still checking in pretty frequently, but it's hard when I'm traveling all the time. 100,000 miles last year!

Here's for an interesting new year!

Azurik

I went traveling (5 months in asia) and the last thing I cared was the stock market.

now I am back to the office job, the only thing that excites me is 9:30 when the market opens. it is pretty extreme...

 

[AgaBoogaBoo]

I'm long ARO and short GMCR right now.

I'm a Ben Graham follower - if anyone else reads his stuff, drop me a line.

 

[Imp]

AIG kicking up a second blowout day in 2 weeks. It went up 9% last week then dropped 5%-ish, and is back up 5% today so far. Risk is high as hell though... Glad the pop has built my principle a fine cushion.

 

[routan]

loved my RIMM trade. Single option bought at 2.55 Feb 60 strike. Got rid of it at 4.2 today on RIMM spike.
Doubt the Playbook can produce enough result to warrant a continued uptick on RIMM.

I asked this previously, but this thread is good as any.

Spongetech was floated as a suggestion in the 2009 thread. Stupid me fell for it. Is there a legal recourse considering the shenanigans that went on at Spongetech?

 

[Imp]

What the *uck? Nvidia is having double 7+ % days? Going to see where they found their gold mine...

http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=NVDA

 

[FelixDeCat]

I went traveling (5 months in asia) and the last thing I cared was the stock market.

now I am back to the office job, the only thing that excites me is 9:30 when the market opens. it is pretty extreme...

I try to travel everyday too usually from the bedroom to the kitchen. Sometimes I dont make it and have breakfast in bed.

 

[Imp]

What do you think about how much BAC paid for Merril? The same mentality is still there. It doesn't matter if a CEO was replaced.

To nitpick, when a business goes down in value, the reaction is not to buy. It is to revisit the reasons you bought, see if those reasons have changed, and to then either buy more or sell.

Anyways, I do own one or two banks but I would not touch BAC. I was trying to tell you not to buy BAC. Why people are not using the same rationalization (Earnings, undervalued etc) and buying WFC which Warren Buffett has said that he'd be willing to go 100% in is beyond me.

As for the Merrill branch, what is going to happen next time Wall Street gets greedy? Will BAC/Merril be bailed out or will re-regulation (Glass Steagall parts coming back?) force the split off off the Merrill arm prior to Merrill killing itself next time thus saving BAC?

All I do is speculative trading. Most research I do is check short and long term trends, ride some rallies then dump it.

You're probably dead on in your analysis in that BAC is shit at the core, and will have future issues again in the future. However, it has a very volatile stock, and the longest I hold onto stocks for is a few weeks, so by the time they screw themselves again, I'll probably be long gone.

 

[DaWhim]

any thoughts on ZLCS?

got 1 drug on the market with no debts. contract with covidien, novartis, amgen, us gov't.

 

[The-Noid]

All I do is speculative trading. Most research I do is check short and long term trends, ride some rallies then dump it.

You're probably dead on in your analysis in that BAC is shit at the core, and will have future issues again in the future. However, it has a very volatile stock, and the longest I hold onto stocks for is a few weeks, so by the time they screw themselves again, I'll probably be long gone.

Look at the butterflies on BAC and how much implied vol is priced in.

I would be much happier play vol to die in BAC than being long the name.

 

[richardycc]

Anyone following BGP? Stock is up 15%+ this morning on restructuring news. Ackman owns 30%+ of the company already, the same guy that made a fortune with the GGP bankruptcy play, but this is a totally diff story, so not sure how this one will play out. It's 50/50, bankruptcy or sale/merge.

 

[The-Noid]

xxx

 

[FelixDeCat]

Bernake says umemployment stuck @ 10% for the next five years. I still think a 20% bear market is looming.

 

[DaWhim]

Anyone following BGP? Stock is up 15%+ this morning on restructuring news. Ackman owns 30%+ of the company already, the same guy that made a fortune with the GGP bankruptcy play, but this is a totally diff story, so not sure how this one will play out. It's 50/50, bankruptcy or sale/merge.

GGP bankruptcy was unique in itself. the company had hard assets worth more than the debts, but the problem was the credit market dried up back then.

I see BGP will go the way of circuit city.

 

[The-Noid]

GGP bankruptcy was unique in itself. the company had hard assets worth more than the debts, but the problem was the credit market dried up back then.

I see BGP will go the way of circuit city.

xxx

 

[lothar]

No I don't live on Bruce Berkowitz's unit.

His followers do though I am sure.

We were short JOE from low-30's and forced to cover 21ish after Bruce decided he would try to buy more this month and join the board of directors. It is hard to borrow now as well as some primes which means it is good for a little pop.

AFAIAC JOE is a dead enterprise, but still a stock you can trade in the interim. 22.50 top of the channel, 21.50 bottom of the channel.

I am always full disclosure on stocks we own cash or synthetically.

Yeah, I noticed this as well.
JOE is the major Berkowitz stock I don't fully understand. It seems they own a lot of land and are banking on the new Airport that was built along with it's surrounding areas. Other people say the lands are completely filthy and useless with nothing special about them. They are the largest private land owner in northern FL and generate barely any cash flow.

Eihorn wants to short sell more of the stock...Too bad he can't borrow from Berkowitz.
Would be interesting to see who wins in the end.

I wouldn't bet against Berkowitz though...He's good at what he does and has outperformed 99+% of fund managers the past 11-12 years while keeping 20-25% cash on average.

 

[lothar]

anyone following bgp? Stock is up 15%+ this morning on restructuring news. Ackman owns 30%+ of the company already, the same guy that made a fortune with the ggp bankruptcy play, but this is a totally diff story, so not sure how this one will play out. It's 50/50, bankruptcy or sale/merge.

bamm > bgp.
Bill Ackman is not one of the major people I follow. Don't care one way or another what he thinks.

 

[lothar]

What do you think about how much BAC paid for Merril? The same mentality is still there. It doesn't matter if a CEO was replaced.

To nitpick, when a business goes down in value, the reaction is not to buy. It is to revisit the reasons you bought, see if those reasons have changed, and to then either buy more or sell.

Anyways, I do own one or two banks but I would not touch BAC. I was trying to tell you not to buy BAC. Why people are not using the same rationalization (Earnings, undervalued etc) and buying WFC which Warren Buffett has said that he'd be willing to go 100% in is beyond me.

As for the Merrill branch, what is going to happen next time Wall Street gets greedy? Will BAC/Merril be bailed out or will re-regulation (Glass Steagall parts coming back?) force the split off off the Merrill arm prior to Merrill killing itself next time thus saving BAC?

From what I heard, the Merrill division has been the one saving BAC the past few quarters.

Even though I think they overpaid for Merrill, I still think Countrywide was the worst acquisition they made off the two. Even if the company was offered free for them, they shouldn't have taken it, talkless of the $4 billion they paid for it.
They should have just allowed Countrywide to declare bankruptcy and buy the assets on the cheap, which would have almost completely shielded BAC from stupid lawsuits.

 

[hiromizu]

I'm up 30% on BAC but short term. I hate to sell now but it's reached my target price. Lothar, any thoughts on the health of the bank?

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I'm long ARO and short GMCR right now.

I'm a Ben Graham follower - if anyone else reads his stuff, drop me a line.

To my knowledge, that is me and Lothar.

I don't read alot of his stuff. Seems liek I get 1/4 the way through his book and then life gets I nthe way (married with children). I do know the improtant parts though. Which makes me want to look at the stocks that you mentioned.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I'm up 30% on BAC but short term. I hate to sell now but it's reached my target price. Lothar, any thoughts on the health of the bank?

Don't try picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer.

 

[hiromizu]

Don't try picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer.

I wish I understood what that means. English is my 3rd language..

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I wish I understood what that means. English is my 3rd language..

It's an uncommon expression so don't worry to much about it.

You've made 30% on BAC and it is now at your target price. You see your money grow and are apprehensive to sell because it might go up more.

Well, it might go down more. Don't worry about the extra pennies you might make because you could also loose dollars.

FWIW: BAC is not a good investment. There was news recently about Bank of New York being one of the more likely banks to resume it's dividend (in 2011Q2). The first banks to resume a dividend are probably the better (best?) ones. So, it is no surprise to have noticed that Bank of New York is a recent Berkshire addition.