***Official*** 2011 Stock Market Thread

[fisheerman]

SD is just doing the inevitable. A move to natural gas will occur within a few years. It will probably be the trucking industry to start. This is al going to be casued by higher oil prices.

I'm not sure how much higher SD will go though. It's a tough cookie to value. More visibility can be had in a year or two since they stated taht htey are slowing/stopping aquisitions. That could provide time for fianncials to normalize.

Looks like SD earnings are coming in better than expected.

Probably decrease some of my position today as it looks like is going to pop at the open.

Financial leverage is high but they seem to be managing it to there benefit. Not sure oil prices will stay at current levels and think that is driving some of the momentum

Nice run though........

 

[mitmot]

I sold my SD today as well. Although guidance was positive and they are looking to reduce debt, I feel like there will be another buyer opportunity later on. Thanks to IHate for the stock.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

No problem regarding SD. I'll be holding for a while.

 

[Schfifty Five]

big down day tomorrow? what does everyone think?

 

[SSSnail]

big down day tomorrow? what does everyone think?

Why do you think so? Irrational knee-jerk reactions over non-relevant events? Like that last weeks?

 

[Engineer]

big down day tomorrow? what does everyone think?

Of course. I just bought my normal, timely mutual fund investment for the month. Always (and I means always) drops off a cliff when I buy into the market. Timing sucks ass for me! D::thumbsdown:

 

[Schfifty Five]

Why do you think so? Irrational knee-jerk reactions over non-relevant events? Like that last weeks?

exactly.

 

[lothar]

No problem regarding SD. I'll be holding for a while.

I'm holding for a while also.
My $4.36 entry price was good but If I didn't go home last year, I could have had a better entry price.

PDLI shot up today.
They announced a new dividend policy...$0.15 per quarter starting March 15th.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I hope that Dow hits andbreaks 14000 soon so I can dump everything prior to the next recession.

The next recession is probably years away but if the US does not start to provide tax incentives for natural gas, it is going to be a painful recession as everyone enters an energy based panic mode as everyone freaks out to get an NG based infrastructure set up throughout the US.

 

[Imp]

Last I checked, it hasn't gone to hell yet, but it's not flying high either.

I'm up a hundred or two today. Unfortunately, one week ago, I had more than that, so it's cost recovery mode right now.

 

[richardycc]

any brave souls playing MED for a quick trade? They will report earnings tonight. WTW reported better than expected earnings few weeks ago, and the stock went up $20. NTRI issued shitty guidance and their stock was down over 30% and MED dropped ~$2 because of that last Friday. So depending on MED earnings and guidance tonight, the stock could go up $4-$10 or down another $2-$5. I have a little girl now, so I can't make a risky bet anymore, but I were to play this one, buying both call and put 24 options might not be a bad play.

 

[Brigandier]

Wall Street Nef

 

[InverseOfNeo]

Wall Street Nef

I dont think NEF is coming back. Check out the chart: http://www.google.com/finance?q=ETR:NEF

 

[richardycc]

big shakeup at JOE, should get interesting....I don't own JOE, but own it indirectly via FAIRX.

 

[chipy]

any brave souls playing MED for a quick trade? They will report earnings tonight. WTW reported better than expected earnings few weeks ago, and the stock went up $20. NTRI issued shitty guidance and their stock was down over 30% and MED dropped ~$2 because of that last Friday. So depending on MED earnings and guidance tonight, the stock could go up $4-$10 or down another $2-$5. I have a little girl now, so I can't make a risky bet anymore, but I were to play this one, buying both call and put 24 options might not be a bad play.

richard, thanks for the heads up. i've never bought options contracts but have considered it. can you tell me why you would buy both a call and a put? since i'm not too familiar with options yet (still need to learn), i might just buy the stock on a speculative basis with "disposable" income... would you recommend for or against that?

thx - chipy

 

[richardycc]

because I am expecting the stock would go up or down at least $4, since I don't know which way it will go, I am playing both, so with the current options at ~2.05 march puts and 1.43 march calls, if the stock drops below $20.52 or gain over $27.48 (this is assuming one of the options will be worthless), I will make money. one will lose money if the stock doesn't move much, so this is VERY risky, I don't recommend it. just watch it for fun.

Disclaimer: Consult a licensed financial advisor before engaging in any investment or stock trading transaction. I am not a licensed financial advisor, whatever I've typed on ATOT aren't financial advice, they are for entertainment only.

 

[richardycc]

looks like MED's earnings might not come out tonight, as they haven't even sent out a PR to announce the date yet...

 

[chipy]

thx rich - love the disclaimer

 

[thepd7]

rough day for semiconductor, glad I took a little profit on WFR a few weeks ago. Still in it for quite a bit but it will be just fine in the next month or two.

 

[SSSnail]

I believe MPEL is still way undervalued at the current price. Tomorrow should see a nice bump - I've been trading this thing for a few years now.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Any of you semicodnuctor fans looking at ISIL?

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I'm holding for a while also.
My $4.36 entry price was good but If I didn't go home last year, I could have had a better entry price.

PDLI shot up today.
They announced a new dividend policy...$0.15 per quarter starting March 15th.

Sold out of PDLI. Just don't care to wait for the home run lawsuit to cause any special dividend. The dividend policy is about half of what I expected it to be and the price went up. I don't get it.

Man, I wish I bought more SD at $4 when I had a chance. Right now, my cost basis is something like $7.30. I have a funny feeling that this thing could get irrationally exuberant if oil goes over $125 ... I mean when oil goes over $125. Stupid peak oil production/expending world economy!

Read up on TAL. A shipping container stock (inter-modal containers). That company scares me. And the industry in general seems to have no barrier to entry. So, a no buy under any circumstance stock.

Right now I am trying to figure out why Icahn owns over 10% of HAIN ... a health food (natural foods) company. been buying more every week for the past few months.

 

[JS80]

Sold out of PDLI. Just don't care to wait for the home run lawsuit to cause any special dividend. The dividend policy is about half of what I expected it to be and the price went up. I don't get it.

Man, I wish I bought more SD at $4 when I had a chance. Right now, my cost basis is something like $7.30. I have a funny feeling that this thing could get irrationally exuberant if oil goes over $125 ... I mean when oil goes over $125. Stupid peak oil production/expending world economy!

Read up on TAL. A shipping container stock (inter-modal containers). That company scares me. And the industry in general seems to have no barrier to entry. So, a no buy under any circumstance stock.

Right now I am trying to figure out why Icahn owns over 10% of HAIN ... a health food (natural foods) company. been buying more every week for the past few months.

Have you done DD on ATPG? If you like SD you should like ATPG.

 

[jteef]

can somebody help me understand commodity ETFs? lets take USO for example.

Today the NYMEX site shows:
APR 11: 102.60
MAY 11: 103.92
JUN 11: 104.51
JUL 11: 105
AUG 11: 105.13
SEP 11: 105.19

If I buy USO today at 102.60 and keep it for 6 months, am I betting that the price of oil will beat 102.60 or that it will beat 105.19. in other terms, pretend in 6 months, oil is sitting at $100; will my investment in USO reflect a 2.5% loss or a 4.9% loss?

I realize there are variances as USO is not a perfectly efficient track of the actual price of crude oil, but this kind of leads to another question.

In June/july of 2008, USO traded at 90-95% of the price of oil. Today it trades at about 40%. Why the difference?

are there any other gotchas?

 

[lothar]

Read up on TAL. A shipping container stock (inter-modal containers). That company scares me. And the industry in general seems to have no barrier to entry. So, a no buy under any circumstance stock.

Right now I am trying to figure out why Icahn owns over 10% of HAIN ... a health food (natural foods) company. been buying more every week for the past few months.

Regarding Carl Icahn and HAIN, I don't understand it either.
I don't see anything spectacular when I looked at the numbers. Nothing jumped at me. I also don't see them being acquired anytime soon. Maybe Icahn is looking to breakup or sell unprofitable parts of the company. Icahn is an activist investor. When he takes such a majority position he either wants to unlock hidden value by selling unprofitable company assets/subsidiaries or he's looking for a buyer to buy the entire company outright. He has 2 board seats and owns 15+% on the company. Looks like he will be tied up there for a while.

That company seems to be trading at very rich valuations...Either that or people have some high expectations. The company has grown on avg 4-5% per year the past 5 years, and the Wall Street analysts expect it to grow 13-15% now? Wow.

An "organic food" company trading at premium valuations? Color me surprised. That's exactly what how you find them at the grocery store in Whole Foods.