***Official*** 2011 Stock Market Thread

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DaWhim

Lifer
Feb 3, 2003
12,985
1
81
Which broker do you guys use? I have accounts with Sharebuilder and Zecco. I am a light trader and most of my holdings are with Zecco but now they seem to be scamming their users. I'd like to bail. Preferably no monthly dues and minimum.

i recommend tradeking but use schwab mainly myself.

I used to use sogotrade before because it was cheap. it was absolutely nightmare when it comes to taxes and reporting. they are shutting down anyways.

you get what you paid for in term of service. i'd rather paid $9 a trade with schwab. filing my taxes was really a piece of cake.

if u want to go with tradeking, let me know, i am more than happy to refer u.
 

Ms. DICKINSON

Golden Member
May 17, 2010
1,221
1
81
bit.ly
how is zecco scamming users?

i have some holdings at zecco but haven't traded with them in ages. i primarily use sogotrade.
They have their referral service which awards you $75 if you sign someone and that person must transfer $500 into the account. Most people who met the requirements don't even get a penny. Zecco changes their pricing policies w/out notifying users. For example, they recently made the change to charge $700+ for you to sell OTC stocks. And there are countless activities that I question if they are even legal. A lot of bait and switch tactics.
I've been reading Zecco's discussion board, a lot of people are jumping ship. ...time to go to.
 

woodman1999

Golden Member
Sep 19, 2003
1,697
106
106
I can answer this. Lots of speculation and many things.

This merger will only save about $1 billion in efficiencies/synergies according to management. Is it really worth it? Not sure if it is or not, but saving $1 billion on $110+ billion worth of revenue (0.9%) doesn't really mean much. These contracts are negotiated on a multi-year basis. I don't expect to see the $1 billion worth of savings anytime less than within the next 3-5 years. Investors of CVS/Caremark have gained NOTHING since their own merger, but that's a long story that should be discussed another time.
Will the regulators allow this to go through? If I remember correctly, the FTC prevented ESRX from buying Caremark in 2007 due to monopolistic concerns, which lead to CVS automatically winning Caremark. After the merger is completed, they would be #1 and have a 31% market share.
This business will now be about a 31% dominant player, a semi-dominant 15% player, another player around the 8-10% range or so, with dozens of local/regional players in the 4% range or less that amount to essentially nothing.

Full Disclosure: I own stock in ESRX and have for many years. It's one of my top 10 positions. Do a search of "ESRX" here on the forums and you will see all my posts associated with it dating back to 2007-2008. ^_^

I doubt employers, patients, and healthcare plans will see any realized "savings" from this merger.
I am "neutral" on this deal and will keep my stock in ESRX. I wouldn't go rushing to buy MHS despite the fact that it's trading at a steep discount from the merger price due to regulatory risk since I already own ESRX and can use that as leverage, but that strategy won't work for you since you don't own it?

No, I don't own ESRX. I see the name mentioned as both a long and short holding so I could never really justify owning it long (shorting things just makes me nervous!)

I read about some of the merger risk, but the articles I read said people still expect that the deal will go through. The only thing that made me nervous was the mention of no breakup fees being attached to the deal which means both sides are somewhat concerned about the deal going through. Maybe I jumped the gun a little, but I did grab myself a tiny position of MHS at $62. If the deal does go through, I'll make some good money and if it doesn't, maybe somebody else steps in and makes another offer...
 

lothar

Diamond Member
Jan 5, 2000
6,674
7
76
No, I don't own ESRX. I see the name mentioned as both a long and short holding so I could never really justify owning it long (shorting things just makes me nervous!)

I read about some of the merger risk, but the articles I read said people still expect that the deal will go through. The only thing that made me nervous was the mention of no breakup fees being attached to the deal which means both sides are somewhat concerned about the deal going through. Maybe I jumped the gun a little, but I did grab myself a tiny position of MHS at $62. If the deal does go through, I'll make some good money and if it doesn't, maybe somebody else steps in and makes another offer...

If the FTC didn't do anything to CVS/Caremark all this time, they may not do anything to MHS/ESRX. 30% market share isn't that much. The question is will the FTC keep the current status of the big 4 national players having a 10-15% market share each, or will they approve of the current proposed merger which would lead to 2 companies competing on the national level and everyone else being a local player?
If this merger happens, there will be a lot of pressure from United Health/Caremark to compete with ESRX/MHS, with one probaably buying the other sometime in the future. Them acquiring the local players that have a <4% market share isn't going to impact their earnings in any meaningful way.

From the ESRX shareholder PoV, I view the lack of a breakup fee to be a positive for me. :thumbsup:

If I was in your position, I would have done exactly the same.
Even if the deal doesn't go through, MHS is still an okay business to own.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
Classic. MSFT reports rising profits, but stock goes down post earnings (pre-market so far at least). No one likes the 2% drop in Windows sales...
 

KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,401
386
126
Classic. MSFT reports rising profits, but stock goes down post earnings (pre-market so far at least). No one likes the 2% drop in Windows sales...

Same thing happened to Intel yesterday. They beat the analysts on double-digit PC demand growth and by 8 cents on earnings per share but the stock still fell because their revenue, which beat analysts expectations, didn't beat it by enough. Sometimes I wonder why I keep a stock until its earnings days. Sell the day before seems like a safer bet.




Who else is jumping on the Rambus bandwagon? Some articles have said they could reach $45 - $105 share. Hard to deny that gamble.
 

manlymatt83

Lifer
Oct 14, 2005
10,053
44
91
Same thing happened to Intel yesterday. They beat the analysts on double-digit PC demand growth and by 8 cents on earnings per share but the stock still fell because their revenue, which beat analysts expectations, didn't beat it by enough. Sometimes I wonder why I keep a stock until its earnings days. Sell the day before seems like a safer bet.




Who else is jumping on the Rambus bandwagon? Some articles have said they could reach $45 - $105 share. Hard to deny that gamble.

Just picked up 100 shares
 

Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
Who else is jumping on the Rambus bandwagon? Some articles have said they could reach $45 - $105 share. Hard to deny that gamble.

I think everyone who has jumped into the bandwagon, has jumped in already (or has jumped on and off and on through the years).
 

woodman1999

Golden Member
Sep 19, 2003
1,697
106
106
I have not yet jumped on the above mentioned bandwagon. Is the big attraction here the lawsuit and the potential settlement? Is it as risky a gamble as I think it is, or are they certain to win this one?
 

mitmot

Golden Member
Aug 11, 2005
1,852
1
0
I mentioned SD a while back. Just informing people that Prem Watsa is selling it now. He made a nice chunk of change on it. SD is in the mid-low $11s right now.

SD is up 5% today. It looks like insiders just purchased more stock 2 days ago. What is Prem Watsa thinking?
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
Same thing happened to Intel yesterday. They beat the analysts on double-digit PC demand growth and by 8 cents on earnings per share but the stock still fell because their revenue, which beat analysts expectations, didn't beat it by enough. Sometimes I wonder why I keep a stock until its earnings days. Sell the day before seems like a safer bet.

I've been trying to sell before earnings, or avoid holding through earnings for the past while. Almost every time I've held, I've been burned. A few times, I got burned by selling, but in total, I've probably lost more than I would have earned by holding. If I were a long-term investor it wouldn't matter, but I'm not.


WFC looks interesting. Will add to my daily "monitor" list. I stick to JPM, BAC and C just because they show up in the news so often, and I keep track of them daily.
 

lothar

Diamond Member
Jan 5, 2000
6,674
7
76
I mentioned SD a while back. Just informing people that Prem Watsa is selling it now. He made a nice chunk of change on it. SD is in the mid-low $11s right now.
I might be selling my shares soon. Just need to wait till the middle of August so I only have to pay 15% cap gains tax.
 

jessieqwert

Senior member
Jun 21, 2003
957
1
76
For those asking about platforms - I strongly recommend thinkorswim. They are slightly more expensive but have awesome support, and mobile/web-based/standalone software/phone trading. Also they have a feature called "paper money" you can use to try it out for free
 

jessieqwert

Senior member
Jun 21, 2003
957
1
76
Anyone else shorting LNKD? I don't see it going any higher and easily plummeting by next year. Puts are expensive but between another dotcom burst or just the market plunging again I don't see it taking off.
 

ajikan

Diamond Member
Aug 20, 2005
4,338
0
76
Anyone worried about what's to come next week? Things don't look too hot with the debt talks
 
Sep 29, 2004
18,665
67
91
ajikan,

With fear comes opportunity. I personally want the Dow to break 13,000. If it drops 500 points, who cares. It's only a 5&#37; move. just don't be empty handed for the run to 14,000 which will one day happen.

I have a few stocks that are grossly undervalued so it doesn't really matter. Sold off some of my CRWS which barely moved since I bought it. Took a tiny profit on it and moved my money into USG (dollar cost averaging) which was down 7% today. I'd add more USG at $10. At $7, I'd be a big buyer of calls. Basically, CRWS was up today and USG tanked. I just had to do it.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
ajikan,

With fear comes opportunity. I personally want the Dow to break 13,000. If it drops 500 points, who cares. It's only a 5% move. just don't be empty handed for the run to 14,000 which will one day happen.

True. I am half in, half out in case of default. If it drops 50%, I could probably make it all back with the cash I have on the side.

On the other hand: shit. I do not want to see my account drop by 5 figures.
 

darkewaffle

Diamond Member
Oct 7, 2005
8,152
1
81
Anyone have any recommendations as far as books (well doesn't have to be, but a book would be good) go for getting a better understanding of how the market functions? I'm not looking for one with trading strategies but really one that explains more about the mechanisms of the market first. A service manual instead of a strategy guide really; something so learn the lingo, maybe the timeline of making a trade, factors in how a stock is priced and how many shares there are, why/how the Dow is different from the Nasdaq which is different from the XYZ, how other non-stock (?) markets work (precious metals, natural resources), how a short/long/split/option/put works. Any ideas what I might be looking for?
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
Well, here come the pretzels. I knew "of" Washington's slow, useless, disfunctional bullshit, but now I finally know what the hell everyone's talking about.

I'm going to try to avoid a heart attack tomorrow when my trading account drops by 4 or 5 figures. I'll try to look on the bright side and "send in the rest" when it's down.
 

VenomXTF

Senior member
May 3, 2004
341
15
81
I was about to purchase 750 shares of AMD on Thursday before the earnings call and changed my mind. Regretting that now. Up 20&#37; overnight
 

sunzt

Diamond Member
Nov 27, 2003
3,076
3
81
NFLX getting hammered after reporting earnings.

happens all the time with pumped up stocks. Pump it up the week of earnings and sell right after. After hours action are not good indicators of future results. Same thing happens to AAPL before when it reported that imacs or ipads or i-something didn't sell as well as analyst expectations and while at the same time blowing out earnings again.

Just give it a week.
 
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