***Official*** 2011 Stock Market Thread

[The-Noid]

I figured IHateMyJob would be in here defending the Buffet. Simply put this BAC deal was a trade, why now?

It goes completely against in the way his GS deal did as well, BAC/GS were trades not long term investments. Having said that good for him.

Huge compression trade being put in place with BAC CDS moving in and shorts covering common. Buffet BAC warrants already in the money by $650MM. The deal is fairly similar to the Preferred - L's but the warrants are obviously a bit better.

 

[SunnyD]

*sigh* Bank of America never hit my buy mark (was hoping for $6, it got close). Today Berkshire Hathaway announced $5 billion investment into it (I should have seen it coming), shares open up 20%. Damnit.

I'm wondering how much upside Buffet's investment is going to bring to BofA.

 

[The-Noid]

*sigh* Bank of America never hit my buy mark (was hoping for $6, it got close). Today Berkshire Hathaway announced $5 billion investment into it (I should have seen it coming), shares open up 20%. Damnit.

I'm wondering how much upside Buffet's investment is going to bring to BofA.

I genuinely think the Buffet endorsement of BAC is worth as much as the 5B in capital. Having said that what kind of due diligence could have possibly be done on this investment since the price started crapping. It's not BAC's actual exposures those are fairly well known. The litigation and derivatives book is what everyone is having trouble valuing. I just can't believe the Buffet and his team had any kind of enough time to get things valued in that book.

 

[SunnyD]

I genuinely think the Buffet endorsement of BAC is worth as much as the 5B in capital. Having said that what kind of due diligence could have possibly be done on this investment since the price started crapping. It's not BAC's actual exposures those are fairly well known. The litigation and derivatives book is what everyone is having trouble valuing. I just can't believe the Buffet and his team had any kind of enough time to get things valued in that book.

I the litigation as a non-issue. AIG is doing a cash grab that isn't going to go anywhere. Marketing sub-primes was messy, but it's an investment. There really is no merit to any sort of case such as this. It wasn't a ponzi scheme... it wasn't illegal. Investors had every bit of information on what they were buying into. They were riding a bubble and they knew it.

Derivatives on the other hand, yeah, that's a bit more dicey. But it's part of the game.

The real question is where is the ceiling on this?

 

[LegendKiller]

Don't make them compare a 1yr gold chart versus a 1yr DOW chart.

Or worse, 5yr charts.

Don't make us compare a 40 year chart, which is the average investing horizon for somebody from the start of their career to retirement.

 

[The-Noid]

Don't make us compare a 40 year chart, which is the average investing horizon for somebody from the start of their career to retirement.

Gold looks to be taking 1700 in considerably fast fashion.

These moves in gold are not necessarily great as the talking heads have been talking about. Now losses are going to start being generated everywhere and a certain point we are going to see margin selling of * if this continues.

TSY's selling/IGCDX still wider/HYCDX wider/Gold Lower/ES Lower. What happened to correlations?

 

[TheSlamma]

*sigh* Bank of America never hit my buy mark (was hoping for $6, it got close). Today Berkshire Hathaway announced $5 billion investment into it (I should have seen it coming), shares open up 20%. Damnit.

I'm wondering how much upside Buffet's investment is going to bring to BofA.

I am in the same boat man I feel your pain.. I was waiting for a $6 also.

 

[goog40]

Good luck to AAPL buyers tomorrow and for the next bit. Company's solid, but how many "investors" will freak out?

Looking good so far. Unfortunately I didn't have too much money available in my brokerage account, but I did put the rest of my available funds into additional shares after the announcement yesterday (hesitated and missed it when it was 352, added at 357). Looks like a lot of this had to have been priced in already.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I figured IHateMyJob would be in here defending the Buffet. Simply put this BAC deal was a trade, why now?

It goes completely against in the way his GS deal did as well, BAC/GS were trades not long term investments. Having said that good for him.

Huge compression trade being put in place with BAC CDS moving in and shorts covering common. Buffet BAC warrants already in the money by $650MM. The deal is fairly similar to the Preferred - L's but the warrants are obviously a bit better.

Thanks. I had to Google Buffett in the recent news. Have to read about that. Kinda surprised that Buffett wants anything to do with BAC.

EDIT: Oh, Buffett got some prefererd stock also. Makes a little more sense. 6% yield with a lottery ticket on top (warrants). If housing improves like Buffett has been saying, BAC share price could go up alot. That's probably Buffett's thesis anyway.

 

[Imp]

I figured IHateMyJob would be in here defending the Buffet. Simply put this BAC deal was a trade, why now?

It goes completely against in the way his GS deal did as well, BAC/GS were trades not long term investments. Having said that good for him.

Huge compression trade being put in place with BAC CDS moving in and shorts covering common. Buffet BAC warrants already in the money by $650MM. The deal is fairly similar to the Preferred - L's but the warrants are obviously a bit better.

Quite surprised. I've bought BAC in past and lost pretty big (lost the same on Ford and MSFT too, so not that bad).

I wrote BAC off after the last time I sold at a loss. Too many unknowns, mortgage issues, litigation, etc.

I went with C and WFC. Nice bump on the former today, but nowhere near as much as BAC. Still risk on both, especially the former, but I'm more comfortable than with BAC. I'm happy-ish.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Gold looks to be taking 1700 in considerably fast fashion.

These moves in gold are not necessarily great as the talking heads have been talking about. Now losses are going to start being generated everywhere and a certain point we are going to see margin selling of * if this continues.

TSY's selling/IGCDX still wider/HYCDX wider/Gold Lower/ES Lower. What happened to correlations?

Also, if gold keeps going up, the CME will continue to tighten margin requirments on gold futures.

 

[The-Noid]

Also, if gold keeps going up, the CME will continue to tighten margin requirments on gold futures.

Has nothing to do with moves up or down direction wise. It is simply the realized volatility.

You could have 100 up days in a row and not see margins go up if realized vol stayed low. As the clearinghouse guarantees all contracts they have to make sure that there is enough margin to catch any move. At the top in the 80's there was $150 moves on $800 gold in a day, that would cause substantial moves up in margin. 10 days of +-$15 or $20 unilaterally would not affect margins at all assuming vol didn't increase.

 

[Jeffg010]

ya this Buffet deal with BoA is head scratcher but it is Buffet and he just seems to know what to get involved. Just his name alone will cause any stock he gets involved with jump a mile high. I would have though there was better banks out there to jump in but not BoA. I guess he thinks BoA was at the bottom and jumped in to maybe ride this out on the up swing that this deal seemed to cause.

 

[The-Noid]

ya this Buffet deal with BoA is head scratcher but it is Buffet and he just seems to know what to get involved. Just his name alone will cause any stock he gets involved with jump a mile high. I would have though there was better banks out there to jump in but not BoA. I guess he thinks BoA was at the bottom and jumped in to maybe ride this out on the up swing that this deal seemed to cause.

Exactly...it is a trade, he generally stays away from trades.

 

[Imp]

Enthusiasm for BAC is waning a bit. It was up 17% a half an hour ago, now it's "only" 12%. But considering the wild swings the likes of BAC and C have been on (+/- 15% in a day during the "crisis" last week and the week before that), it really isn't that much to write home about.

DOW doesn't look happy today.

 

[The-Noid]

Enthusiasm for BAC is waning a bit. It was up 17% a half an hour ago, now it's "only" 12%. But considering the wild swings the likes of BAC and C have been on (+/- 15% in a day during the "crisis" last week and the week before that), it really isn't that much to write home about.

DOW doesn't look happy today.

DAX flash crashed on the rumor from BBG that there would be a new short-selling ban going in effect in Germany.

This is the 4th time this month we have seen a 3% flash crash in DAX futures in a single 5 minute candle. Some algo is really destructing DAX.

 

[Pliablemoose]

Anyone have a plan for tomorrow?

 

[hiromizu]

Well I'm long equities. BAC, MSFT, WMT and a few naughty bits.

 

[Arcadio]

Anyone have a plan for tomorrow?

If the markets go down this week, I'll buy a good amount of shares.

 

[jessieqwert]

Running Sprint through the iphone launch

 

[woodman1999]

Sweet sweet ISRG... been playing this stock throughout the past 2 years. Got lucky last week when it hit my target and dumped a bunch of money into it. I know on a % base, it's only up about 13%, but dollars wise, I am pretty stoked.

 

[LordNoob]

Today is rather flat. Does anyone want to predict the direction of the market over the next several days?

 

[PeeluckyDuckee]

unless there's any surprise negative news we should see a slow steady climb. Don't think we'll see much of thos crazy 5% daily swings, at least hope not.

 

[Pliablemoose]

Running Sprint through the iphone launch

I jumped on that train too.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

USG up 30% in the past 10 days.