***Official*** 2011 Stock Market Thread

[chusteczka]

Seriously considering AMD stock. It's going to tank temporarily but I do think it will recover. Thoughts?

EDIT: Wow. It's going UP. Alllrighty then......

AMD's Book Value is about $2.40 with a current Price/Book Value of 2.05. This provides a snapshot view of their current assets.

Future earnings will drop since an Anandtech Review of their long-awaited Bulldozer 8 "core" cpus shows the processors fail to impress. The Bulldozer cannot best an Intel i5. This means expected decreased earnings.

Add in their Fabrication Yield difficulties and this shows higher fab costs with decreased units available for sale.

AnandTech: The Bulldozer Review: AMD FX-8150 Tested
DailyTech: AMD Launches FX CPUs with Bulldozer Architecture
Anandtech: AMD Confirms 32nm Yield Issues at Global Foundries

AMD is entering a slump. It is my expectation the AMD stock price will slide down. The market is currently bumping up based on the joy of the Euro Bank "solution" but will continue down and there is nothing in AMD's near future of one or two years to show any investor happiness.

AMD's A-series cpu for laptops seems to be doing well and is reasonably priced on the market. This may provide some positive earnings for AMD but investor expectations will drop with the relatively slow Bulldozer, and the stock price will follow accordingly.

Add in the general downward slide the stock market is taking as a whole, due to our failing economy and political turmoil caused by the approaching Presidential election, and it appears the AMD stock price (and many other stock prices) are at a temporary high that will soon drop. It may be possible to ride the bounces until political hope after the Presidential election provides an expected but temporary (of one or two years) stock market resurgence. Just be careful playing during this rocky downward slide.

EDIT: I looked back a few pages and see we have had this discussion before and you already know most, if not all, of this. I am also watching AMD, now that their price has come down to a reasonable level. I like the company.

Disclaimer:
My education and experience is in engineering and NOT in finance. In no way am I qualified to provide any investment advice and what is provided is purely my misguided opinion.

 

[hiromizu]

Since I went long I've also bought puts on TLT. Best decision ever ; )

 

[LordNoob]

Does anyone think there is anything to speculation that Sprint may be a takeover target due to its incredibly low stock price these days? It is trading around $2.50 right now. Maybe Apple or Google? Thoughts?

 

[manly]

Go go Apple...

Earnings on the 18th...

most of the inevitable earnings beat is already priced in, barring another insane breakout quarter like the most recent FYQ3. The bloggers or "independent analysts" are absolutely frothing at the mouth right now, predicting top-line revenue of $34B and $9 EPS. Wall Street is still pandering to Apple's CFO with a prediction just north of $29B.

Pick a number in between. Turley Muller has had a strong track record in recent quarters and he's currently at the lower end of the bloggers' predictions. I suspect they'll do "okay" in the current holiday quarter.

 

[Imp]

Hell of a rally just on "talk" of a plan for Europe. Come on bounce back to the lows!

 

[richardycc]

KV-A is halted with news pending...payday or bust...

 

[Miramonti]

KV-A is halted with news pending...payday or bust...

Trade halts can be terrifying.

 

[The-Noid]

most of the inevitable earnings beat is already priced in, barring another insane breakout quarter like the most recent FYQ3. The bloggers or "independent analysts" are absolutely frothing at the mouth right now, predicting top-line revenue of $34B and $9 EPS. Wall Street is still pandering to Apple's CFO with a prediction just north of $29B.

Pick a number in between. Turley Muller has had a strong track record in recent quarters and he's currently at the lower end of the bloggers' predictions. I suspect they'll do "okay" in the current holiday quarter.

Sell side consensus is 29,450MM with a sigma of 1,143MM. Median is 29,460MM. High is 31,377. Revenue consensus has come down this week.

EPS Consensus is $7.29($6.10-$8.22). .49 on the sigma.

 

[SunnyD]

That's right you fools, keep bidding up RMBS into the stratosphere!

 

[manlymatt83]

Damn, my NOV $20 calls sold out at $2 but now it's up to $2.25. Guess you can't complain ever when making money though, I just made a nice bundle.

Now I'm debating rolling them over into octobers if the decision is indeed soon.

 

[chihlidog]

That's right you fools, keep bidding up RMBS into the stratosphere!

That shit is making my day.

 

[snoopdoug1]

That shit is making my day.

too bad i only bought a small amount

 

[chihlidog]

too bad i only bought a small amount

I bought a very, very small amount myself. I'm easing myself into trading. Im not looking to get rich, just get some supplemental income - and this is my first official profit. I didnt even make enough to take my wife to dinner, but it's something

 

[chusteczka]

After Azurik answered my questions a few pages back on Rambus, I felt better about the company and purchased 500 shares. I am also keeping it small since I am not completely convinced on the company's quality. That situation about the document destruction worries me. With today's prices, my current paper profit is about $1,200 above the purchase price.

 

[snoopdoug1]

I bought a very, very small amount myself. I'm easing myself into trading. Im not looking to get rich, just get some supplemental income - and this is my first official profit. I didnt even make enough to take my wife to dinner, but it's something

Did you sell then?

 

[manly]

Sell side consensus is 29,450MM with a sigma of 1,143MM. Median is 29,460MM. High is 31,377. Revenue consensus has come down this week.

EPS Consensus is $7.29($6.10-$8.22). .49 on the sigma.

They achieved these consensus numbers last quarter, which is typically the slow season. The high end of the range looks closer to the mark.

Wall Street Still Doesn't Understand Apple

 

[The-Noid]

They achieved these consensus numbers last quarter, which is typically the slow season. The high end of the range looks closer to the mark.

Wall Street Still Doesn't Understand Apple

They are 14 reports short of CAPiQ and BBG for consensus in that article.

WS research will never be a optimistic as independents as they tend to temper what they send to clients. I am sure the equity sales departments are a bit more optimistic with their "whisper numbers."

These independent analysts however at some point will fail because AAPL can't beat indefinitely there are limits to growth. The other point to note is all of the analysts publish their models for AAPL EPS/Earnings etc. You can make whatever estimates you want. I don't think that it is that WS doesn't understand AAPL, the sell-side is always going to be more tepid than a lot of the bloggers which tend to be very pro-AAPL to begin with. The price targets are still quite high given where AAPL trades so it isn't as if the sell-side as a whole isn't optimistic.

 

[manly]

They are 14 reports short of CAPiQ and BBG for consensus in that article.

WS research will never be a optimistic as independents as they tend to temper what they send to clients. I am sure the equity sales departments are a bit more optimistic with their "whisper numbers."

These independent analysts however at some point will fail because AAPL can't beat indefinitely there are limits to growth. The other point to note is all of the analysts publish their models for AAPL EPS/Earnings etc. You can make whatever estimates you want. I don't think that it is that WS doesn't understand AAPL, the sell-side is always going to be more tepid than a lot of the bloggers which tend to be very pro-AAPL to begin with. The price targets are still quite high given where AAPL trades so it isn't as if the sell-side as a whole isn't optimistic.

I conceded as much in my first post, "pick a number" between the WS estimates and the bloggers. What you write is correct, but my point is the professional analysts estimates have been wrong for many consecutive quarters. And I don't think they'll be correct this time. My opinion is the bloggers will probably "miss" this time with their (optimistic) avg of $34B rev, $9 EPS. But as usual, so will Wall Street's consensus.

 

[Corporate Thug]

anyone have thoughts on GLUU?

 

[manlymatt83]

I conceded as much in my first post, "pick a number" between the WS estimates and the bloggers. What you write is correct, but my point is the professional analysts estimates have been wrong for many consecutive quarters. And I don't think they'll be correct this time. My opinion is the bloggers will probably "miss" this time with their (optimistic) avg of $34B rev, $9 EPS. But as usual, so will Wall Street's consensus.

Never noticed your name. I wonder if people confuse us.

 

[cirrrocco]

anyone have thoughts on GLUU?

very risky.. I made about 2K this year on that stock and I just do intra day trades.

But it was 5 bucks something this year and down to 2.XX these days. At one point I had 30K in stocks tied in it when I bought it high.. luckily after a couple of months , it touched my cost price and I sold it right away. since then the value has falld 50 percent. so beware.

if you wanna trade, just do a same day trade. after monitoring the stock for 6-8 months now, I notice that if the stock goes a few percent high in the first few mins, then around 10 am PST, it hits the lowest point , I usually buy a few stocks then and sell it before close. I make a couple of percent in profit that way. so very riskly and so beware.

 

[Arachnotronic]

Anybody gonna be playing INTC earnings?

 

[Azurik]

That spike in volume and price of RMBS is attributed to a settlement newswire being pushed through for $2.5 billion dollars.

 

[Schfifty Five]

Anybody gonna be playing INTC earnings?

I'm holding through earnings.

I bought some about 6 years ago or so and I'm just waiting for it to breakeven for me. Rather put the money into something else.

It has a somewhat decent dividend.

 

[manlymatt83]

That spike in volume and price of RMBS is attributed to a settlement newswire being pushed through for $2.5 billion dollars.

So that's it? It's over? No big win?

Sounds like I should sell my calls now while they still have value?