***Official*** 2011 Stock Market Thread

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SunnyD

Belgian Waffler
Jan 2, 2001
32,674
145
106
www.neftastic.com
It was also proprietary, controlled by Rambus in actual collusion with Intel, and expensive. Why would you expect memory manufacturers to push it and give up control of their destiny to third parties? You heard in the trial that Intel could control the RDRAM market by making more or fewer RDRAM chipsets, to the point where RAM makers had to lie to Intel to assure sufficient supply of chipsets and prevent a bottleneck. Of course they were going to back an open standard over RDRAM. It's hard enough being a commodity supplier, it's even worse being a commodity supplier with a third party controlling your market. SDRAM makers busted an Intel-Rambus duopoly, they should have been given a medal by anti-trust regulators, not sued under anti-trust laws.

I won't argue with that either. Let's just say that neither Rambus/Intel's or the Memory Cartel's hands were free of blood in this whole thing. To be fair, I think the main player in this whole thing (both sides of the coin) was Intel... and they pretty much got off scott free.

Anyway, back on topic -- market's pretty down. Any reason why?
Lack of any sort of faith that the EU will be able to clean up its mess. Spain and France are next on the chopping block. Germany is bickering internally as they don't want to be responsible for any of this mess. The UK doesn't give a shit. On our side of the pond, no news is ... well, no news. No reason to go up when the outlook looks bleak.
 

Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
Maybe my memory is hazy -- could you point me to some articles from back then comparing DDR an RDRAM on an objective level?

Also, how's Rambus' XDR compared to DDR3 nowadays?

A mistake that Intel/Rambus did was to include RDRAM in Intel's Pentium 3 chipset, which did not need and could not utilize the bandwidth and ramp-up that RDRAM was capable of. Starting with the Pentium 4 however, multiple tests confirm how far advance RDRAM was trumping DDR at the time (the Intel i850 chipset with RDRAM 1066).

Here's a website that reviewed the RAM chips on a technical perspective as an engineer would, and ignored the bad press Rambus received (and there were many haters back then, and even now).

http://www.hardwareanalysis.com/content/article/1493/

As far as XDR and DD3, it's not exactly comparable as they're meant for different things. XDRs are used in a number of technology products, but they're most known for being implemented in Sony Playstation 2 and 3 systems.
 

endervalentine

Senior member
Jan 30, 2009
700
0
0
bah! guess it'll be a somber bday for me today ... got hit with DNDN a few months ago and now RMBS. I didn't take a big of hit as Azurik did but $40k definitely hurts At least I can keep Azurik company.
 

Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
It was also proprietary, controlled by Rambus in actual collusion with Intel, and expensive.

There is nothing inherently wrong with it being created by one company instead of an open standard who couldn't come up with anything better. Intel created chipsets and it wanted to pair it with the best, most scalable type of memory. A big company like Intel wouldn't have given a then small start-up like Rambus a chance if they didn't have something revolutionary (nor would all the Japanese memory makers at the time signing licensing agreements with Rambus).

The expensive aspect has been beaten to death here already, and you already know what I believe in.
 

KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,401
386
126
Anyway, back on topic -- market's pretty down. Any reason why?

One word. Fear. Everyone is afraid the european debt crisis will spread. As I see it the risk/reward potential of the stock market is now lopsided. The reward would be that the stock market goes to 13,000 and everyone is 15% richer. The greater risk is that Greece, Italy, or Spain default on their bonds, taking the French, eventually the whole Eurozone and the US economy with it. This could lead the market to lose 30% - 50%. There isn't enough good US news to overcome all of the bad European news. And no news is almost just as bad.

I am holding a few stocks that pay decent dividends, but for the most part I have joined in with the selling. There is just too much negativity right now.
 
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senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,195
126
There is nothing inherently wrong with it being created by one company instead of an open standard who couldn't come up with anything better. Intel created chipsets and it wanted to pair it with the best, most scalable type of memory. A big company like Intel wouldn't have given a then small start-up like Rambus a chance if they didn't have something revolutionary (nor would all the Japanese memory makers at the time signing licensing agreements with Rambus).

The expensive aspect has been beaten to death here already, and you already know what I believe in.


Memory makers signed agreements because Intel said they would only support Rambus on their chip sets. This was Intel leveraging its near monopoly in processors to give control of the memory market to a company it invested in. That was the real collusion. Rambus should have been the defendant in an anti-trust suit, not the plaintiff.
 
Mar 10, 2006
11,715
2,012
126
The risk of these countries defaulting on their bonds is...well, it's not gonna happen. It's all artificial, manufactured fear -- just like when people thought the US would default.
 

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,868
0
71
Anyway, back on topic -- market's pretty down. Any reason why?

Think I might have read somewhere that another raise in margins for LCH or something like that (I think spreads between Italian, Spanish, French (?) and German bonds hit certain threshold, triggering another margin call)*. Obviously, that is not only factor, but may be reason for pronounced downturn today. David Faber was hinting at some bank going under, and based upon follow up comments, seems like he may have been hinting at Unicredit in Italy (?)


* I believe same thing happened last week (http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/09/us-markets-bonds-clearnet-idUSTRE7A82BK20111109)



"For two months, starting with the lows in August, I took pains to tell everyone the market was unplayable as we saw ridiculous moves both up and down in a matter of days. Markets were experiencing gaps every day to the upside or downside. Good news, bad news...you name it. It was tough. It was tough because when markets moved up quick, people wanted to be in. When markets moved down quick, they wanted to be short. All the markets provided during that time was nausea.

October 4th provided a high volume washout day where I stated that typically, you are going to rally off of. The rally was stunning in time and price. Instead of the market slowly working through resistance, within 5 days and a couple of gaps, the markets were back at resistance. They then sat around for a few days...a wild few days with gaps and reversals. We saw things like housing and financials actually put in what looked like good bottoms and then we had E day...on October 27th in which Europe supposedly solved their problems. Technically, it was a strong volume gap above resistance. Fast forward to yesterday. What happens? A rogue Corzine makes leveraged bets...just like the numbskulls did in 08 and kills the company he took over just over a year ago...leading others to ponder whether others are in the same position. We hear again that all may not be well in the big E. Markets give back a ton on Monday and we now walk back into a huge gap to the downside today.

I would love to tell you there is a template or a manual for all this...but there isn't. The fast money bails on the first sign of a problem...and jumps back on the first sign of relief. If you put a crayon in the hand of your 2 year old and told him to draw a picture, that scribble would look like a lot of charts I am looking at as I watch the action today. European markets are moving up and down in one day enough for a normal year's gains or losses."

http://www.tradingmarkets.com/stocks/commentary/the-cuckoo-s-nest-1578737.html

 
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JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
The risk of these countries defaulting on their bonds is...well, it's not gonna happen. It's all artificial, manufactured fear -- just like when people thought the US would default.

So a 50% haircut on Greek bonds is not a default? lol.
 

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
11,349
2,362
136
So a 50% haircut on Greek bonds is not a default? lol.
I think he's mainly referring to the countries that matter, Italy and Spain. And by extension the French and German banks holding their paper that are TBTF. Greece is the rotten apple that must not spoil the entire barrel, but otherwise nobody truly cares about Athens.
 
Sep 29, 2004
18,665
67
91
One word. Fear. Everyone is afraid the european debt crisis will spread. As I see it the risk/reward potential of the stock market is now lopsided. The reward would be that the stock market goes to 13,000 and everyone is 15% richer. The greater risk is that Greece, Italy, or Spain default on their bonds, taking the French, eventually the whole Eurozone and the US economy with it. This could lead the market to lose 30% - 50%. There isn't enough good US news to overcome all of the bad European news. And no news is almost just as bad.

I am holding a few stocks that pay decent dividends, but for the most part I have joined in with the selling. There is just too much negativity right now.

Yup, all this stuff is creating volatile markets.

I'm only 10% cash right now. I want a small run up so I can exit a few more positions.
 

Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
Memory makers signed agreements because Intel said they would only support Rambus on their chip sets. This was Intel leveraging its near monopoly in processors to give control of the memory market to a company it invested in. That was the real collusion. Rambus should have been the defendant in an anti-trust suit, not the plaintiff.

I see where you are getting at, but where's the anti-trust in that? It's not illegal to give incentives from one corporation to another. I see it as Intel sees great things in this memory specialist firm, and wanted to incorporate it into its future chipsets, but also would like to be rewarded for heavily investing and promoting it.

Price-fixing and colluding with competitors, on the other hand, is an anti-trust issue.
 

hiromizu

Diamond Member
Jul 6, 2007
3,405
1
0
Yup, all this stuff is creating volatile markets.

I'm only 10% cash right now. I want a small run up so I can exit a few more positions.

I'm 100% long on stocks that I want to keep for awhile that were already heavily battered before the recent hits. Recent events made for nice buying opportunities and I keep accumulating cash so everytime they dip, I buy which brings down my average cost while accumulating tons of shares that pay dividends. The only stock I wish I got out of sooner was BAC..should have listened to Lothar since I was up nearly 40% at one point. I didn't lose much but it still put a fat dent on my overall performance. BAC was my only realized loss this year.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,307
2,099
126
The risk of these countries defaulting on their bonds is...well, it's not gonna happen. It's all artificial, manufactured fear -- just like when people thought the US would default.

I disagree. There is nothing manufactured about it. Those countries, like ours, take in far less than they pay out and have accumalated so much debt to make up the difference. As it is Greece would be financially cooked without direct cash infusions from other countries.

Would you buy Eurozone debt based on your feeling that there will be no default...that "its not going to happen", etc? Put your money where your mouth is. Commodities broker MF Global bet on Euro debt on leverage and went completely bankrupt last week - as will anyone else who takes that stupid bet.

America has the same damn problem. We dont have the policital will to shut off the spigot. Repubs wont raise taxes. Dems wont cut spending. Neither will touch Social Security, Medicade, Defense or pork barrel projects that include bridges to nowhere.

The debt supercommitee was never intended to work, so accross the board cuts will automatically happen. No politician wants to make the hard choices and take the heat, so they will blame it on that.

Hopefully it helps, but even with that, we are still bleeding red ink heading for oblivion. :'(
 
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cheezy321

Diamond Member
Dec 31, 2003
6,218
2
0
I see where you are getting at, but where's the anti-trust in that? It's not illegal to give incentives from one corporation to another. I see it as Intel sees great things in this memory specialist firm, and wanted to incorporate it into its future chipsets, but also would like to be rewarded for heavily investing and promoting it.

Price-fixing and colluding with competitors, on the other hand, is an anti-trust issue.

Dude dont listen to senseamp. The guy takes wildly erratic against the grain stances on everything. Nobody really listens to him.
 

hiromizu

Diamond Member
Jul 6, 2007
3,405
1
0
I disagree. There is nothing manufactured about it. Those countries, like ours, take in far less than they pay out and have accumalated so much debt to make up the difference. As it is Greece would be financially cooked without direct cash infusions from other countries.

Would you buy Eurozone debt based on your feeling that there will be no default...that "its not going to happen", etc? Put your money where your mouth is. Commodities broker MF Global bet on Euro debt on leverage and went completely bankrupt last week - as will anyone else who takes that stupid bet.

America has the same damn problem. We dont have the policital will to shut off the spigot. Repubs wont raise taxes. Dems wont cut spending. Neither will touch Social Security, Medicade, Defense or pork barrel projects that include bridges to nowhere.

The debt supercommitee was never intended to work, so accross the board cuts will automatically happen. No politician wants to make the hard choices and take the heat, so they will blame it on that.

Hopefully it helps, but even with that, we are still bleeding red ink heading for oblivion. :'(

Fixing our sh*t will take way more than legislative changes and for the most part, those who are not in financial turmoil are IMHO the ones setting that example.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
I've been slowly buying and edging myself in from nearly 90% cash last week. I'm all financials right now, and roughly half-in, half-out with a bit more in.

Think I'll keep the other half as insurance for now. Might edge in a bit more if my favourite two banks really hit the shitter tomorrow. Hoping for a relief rally at some point. DOW is stubbornly high though.
 

darkxshade

Lifer
Mar 31, 2001
13,749
6
81
I said this already on one of the other stock threads but I don't have much confidence in the stock market right now. So what I've been doing is pick broad but slightly volatile ETF that I can afford to hold long term should the market crap on itself and I've been pretty much buying, selling, buying and selling the same position on this ETF over and over gain netting me about 3%/round. So I'd buy 100 shares, sell 100 shares, buy 101 shares(extra share from profit taking), sell 101 shares, and so and and so forth. I pretty much have been getting one round of this action/week. The ETF pays about 2% dividend so if anything happens, I'll just hold until the market recovers. I have a pool of cash to buy more lots every 3% it goes down. It's a dangerous game though since I only have enough money to keep buying lots down about 15%.
 
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