Hmmmm... 2-1 for Dalton. Anyone else here want to chime in?
Alright... another question for you all:
Brees vs. SF (proj: 18.3)
Dalton vs. OAK (proj: 21.5)
Dalton.
Brees is tough to sit....but did you see the Niners front last night?
Yes, Brees is no Campbell, of course, but Brees might not make it out alive. D:
Dalton is on a bit of a roll, and against Oakland? seems easy.
Vote for Brees. Maybe I'm mistaken but I don't think NOR O-line is nearly as porous as the Chi O-line so Brees won't likely get murdered. And something about never bench a stud.
Freeman v Atl
or
Eli v GB
Leaning towards Eli to have a comeback week.
I've learned that as well. Start them no matter what, even on tough matchups. But determining who is a stud is a problem aside from the normal guys. Eli is suppose to be a stud but is a bum. Flacco is on the same boat as Eli.
That's my issue. I want to play him, I really do. But his matchup is not as easy and Dalton has been doing pretty well as of late.
Quarterbacks: Get the best
There's no more telling fact than this: The top five quarterbacks averaged nearly five fantasy points per game greater than quarterbacks ranked eighth to 12th -- or within two spots of the cutoff for starting spots in an ESPN standard league -- from Weeks 12-17 and nearly four fantasy points per game greater than quarterbacks who faced the five most favorable matchups.
Sure enough, in terms of total fantasy points accrued, the top five quarterbacks from Weeks 1-11 of 2011 (Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Brees, Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford) still comprised the top five quarterbacks from Weeks 12-17 (ranked Brees, Brady, Stafford, Newton and Rodgers during that time). In fact, four of the five actually improved in terms of average fantasy points per game the final six weeks of the 2011 season. Rodgers was the exception, averaging 26.3 points in the first 11 weeks and 24.4 in the final six, but he was still third best at his position during that time, hardly concerning his owners.
Takeaway: Don't trade Brees, Rodgers, Robert Griffin III or any quarterback who has gotten you this far, and certainly don't trade Brady despite his Weeks 14-15 matchups against the Houston Texans and San Francisco 49ers, which rank among the eight worst matchups for a quarterback (before Week 11's games).
Top 8 matchups 14.2 fpts/gm
Bottom 8 matchups 11.8 fpts/gm
Difference 2.4
Top 5 QBs 18.1 fpts/gm
QBs 8-12 13.5 fpts/gm
Difference 4.6
Flacco has at least performed to expectations. Eli was, on average, the 7th QB taken in the draft, but is now the 23rd ranked QB. Flacco was taken 17th in the draft and is ranked 16th. He's been extremely inconsistent, but as a whole, he has performed as expected.
Not sure Eli is quite a stud. Depends on your idea of what constitutes a stud player. Top 30 overall? Top 20? Eli was in the mid-40s prior to the start of the season and a lot of people had him as their primary QB. But unlike people who took Rodgers or Brady in the 1st round, if you took Eli you were probably looking to get a decent backup for matchup purposes.
Flacco has at least performed to expectations. Eli was, on average, the 7th QB taken in the draft, but is now the 23rd ranked QB. Flacco was taken 17th in the draft and is ranked 16th. He's been extremely inconsistent, but as a whole, he has performed as expected.
Not sure Eli is quite a stud. Depends on your idea of what constitutes a stud player. Top 30 overall? Top 20? Eli was in the mid-40s prior to the start of the season and a lot of people had him as their primary QB. But unlike people who took Rodgers or Brady in the 1st round, if you took Eli you were probably looking to get a decent backup for matchup purposes.
Over lunch I was reading an article on match-ups vs. player with respect to trading (using last 3 years data), but it seems to make sense here as well:
So yeah, I would stick with Brees.
KT
I didn't see the article but I was listening to one of my fantasy podcasts today (Fantasy Focus I think) and they were talking about this. Probably referring to the exact same thing you read.
Summary was that quarterbacks are much less affected by matchups. High-end QBs tend to be matchup-proof, and highly favorable matchups aren't that likely to help a mediocre QB put up lots of points.
On the other hand, only the top-tier elite RBs are truly matchup-proof. Once you get out of about the top three or so, matchups start to have a greater effect. They did say that favorable matchups don't help as much as unfavorable ones hurt.
KT, do you have the actual article? I love digging into these kinds of stats and I'd like to see it for myself instead of hearing about it secondhand.
I need to drop someone. Can someone give me a recommendation on who to drop? I'm already dropping Heath Miller for Ronnie Hillman. I need to drop one more guy.
Who's the second guy you're picking up? I guess I'd say Eli, Turner, or Lloyd. But they all have upside. Maybe Eli returns to form, you don't want someone else to have him. Turner still holds value because as atrocious as he is, he's still a starting RB. And Lloyd always has a chance to do well with Brady throwing to him, especially now with Gronk out.
I'd probably drop Eli though assuming you're comfortable starting Palmer from now on. Or Lloyd if you're picking up a WR. A few people are saying Julian Edelman is more valuable than Lloyd at this point.