"Defense wins championships" actually means something. The Patriots defense was near the top of the NFL for their three Super Bowl wins. You will always have people look at the fact the Patriots got busted spying on other teams and their defense declined so they decide to run the score up on everyone.
Look at the Colts defense during Manning's career (low and high rankings) and the years they went to the Super Bowls, it was up there as well.
Now the Broncos have a great defense and a great offense. We shall see how well they do.
that cliche was debunked in the book Scorecasting. (Not disagreeing with your other points.)
The Broncos do have a top-5 O and D this season; so as has been pointed out numerous times, the Ravens are a huge dog on the road. Nobody denies that, but turnovers can be the great equalizer. Noone seriously envisions Joe Flacco out-performing PM in a shootout, all else being equal.
Assuming the AFC plays out to form, a Peyton Manning vs Patriots rematch the following week will be interesting as usual.
The NFC is much harder to call. As much as I love Rodgers, I don't have much confidence in the Packers swiss cheese defense. Surprisingly, most analysts have been picking the Packers based almost solely on their All-Pro QB. Forget about the other few dozen players on the roster. Hopefully Justin Smith is out because the 49ers are a different defense without him.
And I'd never put any money on the Falcons in the playoffs.