*OFFICIAL* 2012 NFL Playoffs thread

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Capt Caveman

Lifer
Jan 30, 2005
34,543
651
126
If the Ravens can again successfully jam NE's midget receivers (are any even over 6-0?) at the line, they will win again. If NE can somehow counter this, then they will win. However, they cannot plan for this.

They weren't able to jam/slow down those midget WRs during the regular season game with both Welker and Lloyd having over 100 yds each. Better hope Flacco can keep it up next Sunday.
 

Jimzz

Diamond Member
Oct 23, 2012
4,399
190
106
Why did the Falcons do an offside kick in the last 30 sec of the game?
That allowed the seahawks to have the ball at their own 45yd line!

with 2 plays left, why did the seahawks just do a 10yd play instead 25+ yd to get into field goal range?
there was no point in this 10yd play. their last play is the same as if they missed on the 25yd play.. the Hail Mary

WTF Seahawks?


It was supposed to be a long squib kick. The kicker either heard wrong or jammed it to much.

But yea Atlanta, as always, tried to choke and the seahawks could not take advantage.
 

IndyColtsFan

Lifer
Sep 22, 2007
33,655
687
126
All the Ravens doom and gloom? At one point I said they were one of the weakest teams going into the playoffs (obviously an incorrect prediction) but that was as harsh as I got. I've never been a member of the hysterical "cut Flacco/fire Harbaugh/etc etc" crowd. Some people were honestly suggesting they Ravens should replace Flacco with Michael Vick.

No, I do think they were very weak coming into the playoffs. Ray Lewis returning and Flacco's clutch play have obviously remedied those perceived weaknesses.
 
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ichy

Diamond Member
Oct 5, 2006
6,940
8
81
No, I do think they were very weak coming into the playoffs. Ray Lewis returning and Flacco's clutch play have obviously remedied those perceived weaknesses.

The improved O-line has been huge. Despite all the Blind Side hype Michael Oher never turned into a good left tackle. McKinnie getting in shape and returning to LT did a lot to turn things around.
 

gorcorps

aka Brandon
Jul 18, 2004
30,739
452
126
Ravens/Denver:

With the game tied, 30 sec left, and 2 timeouts, why did Denver let the clock wind down and decide to fight it out in overtime?!

You have Peyton!
you easily could have done 3 plays in that time frame for a chance to get into field goal range.

WTF Denver?

I don't know, it bothers me too. I've heard explanations though that make a bit of sense. When you're hurried because of a limited clock the chances of making a mistake increases. I don't know if they were worried about a fumble or pick 6 or something happening. One can argue the same "they have Peyton" mentality is what made them send it to overtime in the first place... as in "we believe in our defense and we have Peyton, so we'd rather come out with a fresher team than hurry ourselves". Of course I can't imagine their defense was inspiring confidence anymore.

I don't know, it doesn't make sense to waste that time and I was dissappointed when they did it. I don't know if that was a coach, coordinator, or Manning decision but I didn't like it.
 

diesbudt

Diamond Member
Jun 1, 2012
3,393
0
0
I don't know, it bothers me too. I've heard explanations though that make a bit of sense. When you're hurried because of a limited clock the chances of making a mistake increases. I don't know if they were worried about a fumble or pick 6 or something happening. One can argue the same "they have Peyton" mentality is what made them send it to overtime in the first place... as in "we believe in our defense and we have Peyton, so we'd rather come out with a fresher team than hurry ourselves". Of course I can't imagine their defense was inspiring confidence anymore.

I don't know, it doesn't make sense to waste that time and I was dissappointed when they did it. I don't know if that was a coach, coordinator, or Manning decision but I didn't like it.

Yea it was not a smart move. 30s, 2 time outs.

Ravens had 0 time outs. So a few deep shots (20+yards) would have been called for. Worse case scenario, Ravens got the ball back on a turnover with just a few seconds left, in their terriotry with 0 time outs.
 

Red Storm

Lifer
Oct 2, 2005
14,233
234
106
I don't know, it bothers me too. I've heard explanations though that make a bit of sense. When you're hurried because of a limited clock the chances of making a mistake increases. I don't know if they were worried about a fumble or pick 6 or something happening. One can argue the same "they have Peyton" mentality is what made them send it to overtime in the first place... as in "we believe in our defense and we have Peyton, so we'd rather come out with a fresher team than hurry ourselves". Of course I can't imagine their defense was inspiring confidence anymore.

I don't know, it doesn't make sense to waste that time and I was dissappointed when they did it. I don't know if that was a coach, coordinator, or Manning decision but I didn't like it.

It felt very much like a "playing not to lose" call. I hate seeing teams switch to that mentality from "playing to win". Especially when Peyton freaking Manning is your QB. They deserved to lose after that.
 

IndyColtsFan

Lifer
Sep 22, 2007
33,655
687
126
I don't know, it doesn't make sense to waste that time and I was dissappointed when they did it. I don't know if that was a coach, coordinator, or Manning decision but I didn't like it.

I really wonder just how "hurried" they would've been given the fact they had 2 timeouts remaining with 30 seconds and the fact the clock stops on incompletions as well. You throw a sideline out as your first play and then you have 2 timeouts and probably 20+ seconds to work with. The whole field was basically at play for them and needing only 40 yards was very doable IMO.
 

JD50

Lifer
Sep 4, 2005
11,754
2,344
126
You're a lying asshole. No one other than you has said anything about Flacco being in the Hall of Fame.

He's been pulling that crap all throughout this thread. Everytime I call him on his BS he ignores it.
 

SSSnail

Lifer
Nov 29, 2006
17,458
82
86
AMDzen is, in fact, Jesus. He died once last year with Tebow, risen, only to die again with Peyton.
 

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
11,859
2,810
136
I don't know, it bothers me too. I've heard explanations though that make a bit of sense. When you're hurried because of a limited clock the chances of making a mistake increases. I don't know if they were worried about a fumble or pick 6 or something happening. One can argue the same "they have Peyton" mentality is what made them send it to overtime in the first place... as in "we believe in our defense and we have Peyton, so we'd rather come out with a fresher team than hurry ourselves". Of course I can't imagine their defense was inspiring confidence anymore.

I don't know, it doesn't make sense to waste that time and I was dissappointed when they did it. I don't know if that was a coach, coordinator, or Manning decision but I didn't like it.
doesn't bother me much, mainly Monday Morning Quarterbacking IMO. Was it conservative of John Fox? Yes. Did it lose the game? No. Ignoring Chump Bailey's play in regulation or the blown coverage on the Ravens game-tying bomb, it was primarily Peyton Manning's Favre-ian INT that lost the game. (Some have criticized the offensive play-calling in OT and that's probably fair.)

But before blaming Fox, I'd like to see some hard stats on the success rate of 31 second drives with 2 time outs; I don't think it's all that favorable of a risk/reward ratio. I'm not a die-hard football fan but until Tom Brady executed the late drive to (help) win their first title, it was very uncommon. I distinctly remember John Madden basically saying the Patriots were going to run out the clock for OT. (I missed the Falcons game, so have no idea how they pulled it off just yesterday.)

It would be more questionable to kneel under the old OT rules, where the coin flip was massively crucial in determining the outcome. Now you're guaranteed a possession if the first receiving team kicks an OT field goal for the lead. At home, I don't think you're giving up much of an edge by taking a knee with just 31 seconds. Did it piss off some fans? Surely, but not nearly as much as the outcome.

I realize fans believe you have to trust Manning in that situation and he's not likely to throw a pick-6. But what actually happened later in OT?
 

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
29,391
2,736
126
doesn't bother me much, mainly Monday Morning Quarterbacking IMO. Was it conservative of John Fox? Yes. Did it lose the game? No. Ignoring Chump Bailey's play in regulation or the blown coverage on the Ravens game-tying bomb, it was primarily Peyton Manning's Favre-ian INT that lost the game. (Some have criticized the offensive play-calling in OT and that's probably fair.)

But before blaming Fox, I'd like to see some hard stats on the success rate of 31 second drives with 2 time outs; I don't think it's all that favorable of a risk/reward ratio. I'm not a die-hard football fan but until Tom Brady executed the late drive to (help) win their first title, it was very uncommon. I distinctly remember John Madden basically saying the Patriots were going to run out the clock for OT. (I missed the Falcons game, so have no idea how they pulled it off just yesterday.)

It would be more questionable to kneel under the old OT rules, where the coin flip was massively crucial in determining the outcome. Now you're guaranteed a possession if the first receiving team kicks an OT field goal for the lead. At home, I don't think you're giving up much of an edge by taking a knee with just 31 seconds. Did it piss off some fans? Surely, but not nearly as much as the outcome.

I realize fans believe you have to trust Manning in that situation and he's not likely to throw a pick-6. But what actually happened later in OT?

In OT, there's another way to win w/o the other team have possesion of the ball:
a safety
 
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thraashman

Lifer
Apr 10, 2000
11,103
1,550
126
Why did the Falcons do an offside kick in the last 30 sec of the game?
That allowed the seahawks to have the ball at their own 45yd line!

with 2 plays left, why did the seahawks just do a 10yd play instead 25+ yd to get into field goal range?
there was no point in this 10yd play. their last play is the same as if they missed on the 25yd play.. the Hail Mary

WTF Seahawks?

As someone already said it was supposed to be a squib kick and Matt Bosher screwed it up. He was having an off day as it was, both times he punted in the game he didn't do a very good job.

As far as Seahawks trying to get into position for a long field goal, their kicker was hurt during the Redskins game and they signed a replacement earlier in the week. They were probably apprehensive to let the game ride on his foot for a long attempt.
 

SP33Demon

Lifer
Jun 22, 2001
27,928
142
106
Ravens/Denver:

With the game tied, 30 sec left, and 2 timeouts, why did Denver let the clock wind down and decide to fight it out in overtime?!

You have Peyton!
you easily could have done 3 plays in that time frame for a chance to get into field goal range.

WTF Denver?

Very simple, they didn't want to risk a turnover. Baltimore was getting decent pressure on Manning and forced two fumbles as a result (one negated by g.dam refs), also freak shit like the earlier pick-6. Manning even said after the game he was constantly forced to audible by the Raven's D.

Also consider that they were still in shock from the "Flacco Fling" that they probably felt like they needed to regroup in the locker room. Everyone in the stadium was still reeling from that and I can understand not wanting to fuck up after such a demoralizing thing. Their heads weren't in the game and why risk a turnover? I don't see anything wrong with not chancing an even stupider mistake to lose the game when the team isn't mentally focused.
 

AstroManLuca

Lifer
Jun 24, 2004
15,628
5
81
But before blaming Fox, I'd like to see some hard stats on the success rate of 31 second drives with 2 time outs; I don't think it's all that favorable of a risk/reward ratio.

According to the Advanced NFL Stats win probability calculator (http://wp.advancednflstats.com/winprobcalc1.php), 23% of drives that begin on a team's own 20 yard line result in a score (15% touchdowns, 8% field goals). And the probability of a team winning in that exact situation is 52%, but that is taking overtime into account. The one thing the calculator doesn't do is take timeouts into account - it uses play-by-play data from 2000 onward, so it looks at all situations regardless of the number of timeouts remaining.

I'm not sure the chance of a turnover in that situation, but if Peyton had thrown it far enough on his pass attempts, any interception likely would not have resulted in points for the Ravens. I guess the one mitigating factor there is that Peyton seemed to have trouble throwing the ball a long way (only 2 of his attempts traveled over 15 yards in the air).

Even so, I hate it when coaches call for a kneel when there is a reasonable chance to score.

Maybe the most overly conservative decision, though, was punting on 4th and 1 from their own 39 during overtime. Yes, a failed conversion means an almost certain loss. But it's not an extremely difficult conversion to make - 4th and 1 attempts are converted 72% of the time.

There's a whole article on John Fox's conservative decisions throughout the game, breaking down which ones were the right call and which were not:

http://deadspin.com/5975644/fox-get...e-strategy-cost-the-broncos-a-playoff-victory
 

Ricochet

Diamond Member
Oct 31, 1999
6,390
19
81
Falcons did what Broncos chose not to attempt: 30 sec drive to within field goal. Mad props to ATL for taking advantage of Seahawks blown coverage. They took a page out of the Seahawks/Bears game with a similar blown coverage.
 

mugs

Lifer
Apr 29, 2003
48,920
46
91
It makes me sad that one annoying fan can drag down the public opinion of an entire team :\

I'm not entirely happy he's part of the fanbase either but I can't change that.

Now you know how Dallas fans feel.

Well not really, people would hate Dallas regardless.
 

SP33Demon

Lifer
Jun 22, 2001
27,928
142
106
There's a whole article on John Fox's conservative decisions throughout the game, breaking down which ones were the right call and which were not:

http://deadspin.com/5975644/fox-get...e-strategy-cost-the-broncos-a-playoff-victory

And he agreed with every single call that Fox made except the 4th and 1 in OT from their own 39. Controversy not found.

For that, the writer claims:
Fourth-and-1 situations are converted about 72 percent of the time.

Clearly he didn't watch the game, because the Ravens were stuffing the run in short down situations all game - I'd love to see some stats on how many yards Denver was getting on 2yd or less running plays. I can remember at least two 3rd and shorts where Denver got the 1st down by barely an inch... If Denver muffs it to give the Ravens the ball on their 39, Fox's head would have been on a stick. I agree with Fox on that call, way way too risky.
 

Red Storm

Lifer
Oct 2, 2005
14,233
234
106
Falcons did what Broncos chose not to attempt: 30 sec drive to within field goal. Mad props to ATL for taking advantage of Seahawks blown coverage. They took a page out of the Seahawks/Bears game with a similar blown coverage.

Yeah. I'd even say it would have been better for Denver had they been down and not tied at the end, cause then they'd have no choice but to man up and go for it instead of bowing out. I definitely feel that they could and would have gotten into FG range with ~30 seconds and two timeouts.
 

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
11,859
2,810
136
According to the Advanced NFL Stats win probability calculator (http://wp.advancednflstats.com/winprobcalc1.php), 23% of drives that begin on a team's own 20 yard line result in a score (15% touchdowns, 8% field goals). And the probability of a team winning in that exact situation is 52%, but that is taking overtime into account. The one thing the calculator doesn't do is take timeouts into account - it uses play-by-play data from 2000 onward, so it looks at all situations regardless of the number of timeouts remaining.
Thanks for linking that. The good news with using year 2000+ data is that this period includes more risk-taking in 60 seconds or less situations, vs. previous historical norms.

I suppose the odds of a crippling turnover are not very high (< 10%), but the reward is still infrequent. 23% chance of winning in regulation is decent enough, but not nearly high enough to blame Fox for choosing OT.

If PM was having trouble throwing a deeper pass, then they were even less likely to march 45 yards downfield.

I'll read the deadspin article in a bit.
 

purbeast0

No Lifer
Sep 13, 2001
53,027
5,912
126
He's been pulling that crap all throughout this thread. Everytime I call him on his BS he ignores it.

pull what crap? there is nothing to call out. i'm around baltimore fans all year round and listen to the local media.

when the ravens were on their 4 or so losing game streak towards the later half of the season and canned cam cameron, the majority of baltimore fans wanted flacco gone as well. and now that he has his receivers bailing him out of terrible passes (with some good passes in there as well) he is now all high and mighty among the baltimore fans.

it was hilarious when i drove up to pa the day before the redskins/ravens game in early december and i listened to the baltimore sports talk radio going up there, i think 105.7 i don't remember exactly as i was just scanning and came across it, and just hearing all the listeners calling in and whining about flacco.
 

AstroManLuca

Lifer
Jun 24, 2004
15,628
5
81
And he agreed with every single call that Fox made except the 4th and 1 in OT from their own 39. Controversy not found.

For that, the writer claims:


Clearly he didn't watch the game, because the Ravens were stuffing the run in short down situations all game - I'd love to see some stats on how many yards Denver was getting on 2yd or less running plays. I can remember at least two 3rd and shorts where Denver got the 1st down by barely an inch... If Denver muffs it to give the Ravens the ball on their 39, Fox's head would have been on a stick. I agree with Fox on that call, way way too risky.

Those percentages don't take into account how the teams were playing specifically, they're just historical percentages based on 2000-present play-by-play data.

I suppose the odds of a crippling turnover are not very high (< 10%), but the reward is still infrequent. 23% chance of winning in regulation is decent enough, but not nearly high enough to blame Fox for choosing OT.

The problem is, as I was playing around with the calculator, the chances of scoring a TD or FG didn't change no matter how I fiddled with the time remaining. So all it says is that drives that begin at the 20 end with a scoring play 23% of the time, regardless of time remaining. With just 31 seconds left, that number has to be much lower. The win probability number DOES take time into account, but it also takes overtime into account.

What the WP calculator is really useful for is evaluating one decision vs. another. Attempting a game-winning drive there would have given Denver a 52% chance of winning. Letting it go to overtime gave them a 50% chance of winning (prior to knowing who wins the coin toss).
 

dougp

Diamond Member
May 3, 2002
7,909
4
0
Now you know how Dallas fans feel.

Well not really, people would hate Dallas regardless.

Mugs, that's a cheap shot at me. There are definently worse fans, they just don't post here.

But, your second line is true. Doesn't matter what the Cowboys do, people will hate them regardless.
 

diesbudt

Diamond Member
Jun 1, 2012
3,393
0
0
Mugs, that's a cheap shot at me. There are definently worse fans, they just don't post here.

But, your second line is true. Doesn't matter what the Cowboys do, people will hate them regardless.

The teams I hate the most?

AFC
Patriots
Raiders

NFC
Falcons
Bears (Only because my alligence says I must)

So no matter what either of these teams do. I hate'm
 
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