But before blaming Fox, I'd like to see some hard stats on the success rate of 31 second drives with 2 time outs; I don't think it's all that favorable of a risk/reward ratio.
According to the Advanced NFL Stats win probability calculator (
http://wp.advancednflstats.com/winprobcalc1.php), 23% of drives that begin on a team's own 20 yard line result in a score (15% touchdowns, 8% field goals). And the probability of a team winning in that exact situation is 52%, but that is taking overtime into account. The one thing the calculator doesn't do is take timeouts into account - it uses play-by-play data from 2000 onward, so it looks at all situations regardless of the number of timeouts remaining.
I'm not sure the chance of a turnover in that situation, but if Peyton had thrown it far enough on his pass attempts, any interception likely would not have resulted in points for the Ravens. I guess the one mitigating factor there is that Peyton seemed to have trouble throwing the ball a long way (only 2 of his attempts traveled over 15 yards in the air).
Even so, I hate it when coaches call for a kneel when there is a reasonable chance to score.
Maybe the most overly conservative decision, though, was punting on 4th and 1 from their own 39 during overtime. Yes, a failed conversion means an almost certain loss. But it's not an extremely difficult conversion to make - 4th and 1 attempts are converted 72% of the time.
There's a whole article on John Fox's conservative decisions throughout the game, breaking down which ones were the right call and which were not:
http://deadspin.com/5975644/fox-get...e-strategy-cost-the-broncos-a-playoff-victory