*OFFICIAL* 2012 NFL Playoffs thread

[purbeast0]

Mugs, that's a cheap shot at me. There are definently worse fans, they just don't post here.

But, your second line is true. Doesn't matter what the Cowboys do, people will hate them regardless.

people hate dallas for multiple reasons. a lot of it stems because they are self proclaimed america's team. it is also because they are the most valuable team in the nfl, and we know that everyone hates on everything popular. they also are very mediocore and have been for a long time now, and they are ALWAYS in the natioal spot light, along with jerry jones, who people also hate because of the way he runs the team.

but if they were actually good, like the patriots, then i don't think people would hate them as much.

i know i will always dislike them because they are a division rival of the team i root for.

 

[manly]

The problem is, as I was playing around with the calculator, the chances of scoring a TD or FG didn't change no matter how I fiddled with the time remaining. So all it says is that drives that begin at the 20 end with a scoring play 23% of the time, regardless of time remaining. With just 31 seconds left, that number has to be much lower. The win probability number DOES take time into account, but it also takes overtime into account.

What the WP calculator is really useful for is evaluating one decision vs. another. Attempting a game-winning drive there would have given Denver a 52% chance of winning. Letting it go to overtime gave them a 50% chance of winning (prior to knowing who wins the coin toss).

Yeah the deadspin article quotes scoring probabilities much lower than 23%.

And the calculator suggests you're improving your winning chances by 4% (before the coin flip) by trying to drive? Like I originally said, it's not that you expect PM to pull a Brett Favre there. But you hardly expect him to pull a Tom Brady of Super Bowl XXXVI either.

Some of the other decisions you can debate, but honestly how many NFL head coaches go for it on 4th & 1 on their own 39, do or die? (even though game theory dictates that you do it.)

 

[dougp]

people hate dallas for multiple reasons. a lot of it stems because they are self proclaimed america's team. it is also because they are the most valuable team in the nfl, and we know that everyone hates on everything popular. they also are very mediocore and have been for a long time now, and they are ALWAYS in the natioal spot light, along with jerry jones, who people also hate because of the way he runs the team.

but if they were actually good, like the patriots, then i don't think people would hate them as much.

i know i will always dislike them because they are a division rival of the team i root for.

They are not the self proclaimed "America's Team" - this was a title given to them by the NFL. The media and opposing fans continue to coin the term, but I don't remember seeing anything at the new stadium that referenced it, nor do I hear Cowboys fans use the term.

Hater.

 

[zinfamous]

people hate dallas for multiple reasons. a lot of it stems because they are self proclaimed america's team. it is also because they are the most valuable team in the nfl, and we know that everyone hates on everything popular. they also are very mediocore and have been for a long time now, and they are ALWAYS in the natioal spot light, along with jerry jones, who people also hate because of the way he runs the team.

but if they were actually good, like the patriots, then i don't think people would hate them as much.

i know i will always dislike them because they are a division rival of the team i root for.

they aren't actually self-proclaimed--"America's Team" was given to them in one largely-forgotten article from Time magazine or some AP article several decades ago, and tons of people just picked up on it.

I hate them because, well, I must. It is my sworn duty as a Redskins fan. Overall, though, I must say that their fans are generally pretty good fans. There are teams that I outright hate because of their fans: Patriots, Broncos, Pittsburgh (I pulled for Pittsburgh with Cowher, due to connection to NCSU and home and I always liked guys like Bettis and Ward, but that is all gone now, of course).

Cowboys/Skins is one of the oldest and most heated rivalries in the game, outside of whichever midwestern teams claims to hate the Bears the most

outside of that, people flat-out hate Jerry Jones and I greatly dislike scum like Michael Irving and permanently associate him with the franchise...and I know I'm not the only one. But overall, they are generally good fans and I tend to get along well with them and the rivalry never goes personal--it's just fun. The only fans that I find intolerable in that group are the "god's team types": "The hole in the dome is so that God can look down upon his team!"

wtf is that shit?

 

[Imported]

This is awesome.

I miss all the various angles watching a game on TV rather than in person. I'll have to watch the NFL Replay whenever it is on.

 

[hclarkjr]

Griffin III Named PFWA NFL Rookie Of Year



http://www.redskins.com/news-and-ev...-Of-Year/b95ff0df-2f64-476a-b366-2ec40b35313b

 

[purbeast0]

ah that is right forgot that was back in the day when they were proclaimed america's team. i think i also read that the steelers turned down that title before the cowboys took it.

Griffin III Named PFWA NFL Rookie Of Year
http://www.redskins.com/news-and-ev...-Of-Year/b95ff0df-2f64-476a-b366-2ec40b35313b

not trying to be a dick but this really has nothing to do with the 2012 playoffs

 

[diesbudt]

they aren't actually self-proclaimed--"America's Team" was given to them in one largely-forgotten article from Time magazine or some AP article several decades ago, and tons of people just picked up on it.

I hate them because, well, I must. It is my sworn duty as a Redskins fan. Overall, though, I must say that their fans are generally pretty good fans. There are teams that I outright hate because of their fans: Patriots, Broncos, Pittsburgh (I pulled for Pittsburgh with Cowher, due to connection to NCSU and home and I always liked guys like Bettis and Ward, but that is all gone now, of course).

Cowboys/Skins is one of the oldest and most heated rivalries in the game, outside of whichever midwestern teams claims to hate the Bears the most

outside of that, people flat-out hate Jerry Jones and I greatly dislike scum like Michael Irving and permanently associate him with the franchise...and I know I'm not the only one. But overall, they are generally good fans and I tend to get along well with them and the rivalry never goes personal--it's just fun. The only fans that I find intolerable in that group are the "god's team types": "The hole in the dome is so that God can look down upon his team!"

wtf is that shit?

To be fair I feel like the lions, vikings and bears all equally dislike the Packers. And packers hate the bears the most. Because not only is it one of the most heated, hated rivelries in the NFL, but also the longest. Since early 1920s.

 

[diesbudt]

This is awesome.

I miss all the various angles watching a game on TV rather than in person. I'll have to watch the NFL Replay whenever it is on.

Yea I do not think Don capers and the Linebackers were prepared for the machine they call Kaepernick, thought playing Webb the week before would have helped but... turns out kaepernick not only runs way faster, but can actually throw.

 

[vi edit]

Dallas is the Notre Dame of the NFL. So much hype year after year after year with little to no production to back it. And because Jerry Jones is the debbil.

 

[hclarkjr]

ah that is right forgot that was back in the day when they were proclaimed america's team. i think i also read that the steelers turned down that title before the cowboys took it.



not trying to be a dick but this really has nothing to do with the 2012 playoffs

like it is just playoffs being bickered about anyhow no use creating another thread for arguing when this one is here

 

[AstroManLuca]

Some of the other decisions you can debate, but honestly how many NFL head coaches go for it on 4th & 1 on their own 39, do or die? (even though game theory dictates that you do it.)

Well the Pats went for it on 4th and 2 from even deeper in their own territory, their own 28 yard line, and they weren't able to make it. The guy at ANS often mentions that coaches don't so much play to win as they play to not lose (or to delay final elimination). Many coaches are willing to sacrifice a degree of win probability in order to reduce their chances of losing outright.

Example: if your team is down by 14 points in the 4th quarter, and you score a touchdown, you should go for 2. No one does. But they should. Reason being that 2 pt conversions are roughly a 50% chance, and extra points are virtually guaranteed. Assuming you're able to score 2 touchdowns and prevent the other team from scoring, it increases your chances of winning from 50% to about 63%.

If you go XP/XP, all you do is force overtime, which is a 50% proposition. But if you go for 2, you have a 50% chance of winning in regulation and a 25% chance of forcing overtime (if you miss the first 2pt but make a second attempt). Since OT is 50/50, you take half that and you end up with a 62.5% chance of winning. But then, you also have the 25% chance of missing both 2 pt conversions and losing outright. Coaches are afraid of that 25% chance so they just do the safe thing and kick extra points. But they're actually hurting their chances of winning. Even if you say that 2 point conversions aren't a 50/50 shot, it's still a better decision even if you only have a 40% chance of converting. In that case, you have a 40% chance of winning in regulation, 36% of losing in regulation, 12% of winning in OT, and 12% of losing in OT. 52/48 in favor.

 

[AstroManLuca]

Yea I do not think Don capers and the Linebackers were prepared for the machine they call Kaepernick, thought playing Webb the week before would have helped but... turns out kaepernick not only runs way faster, but can actually throw.

LOL, I heard someone mention this on the sports radio. If anyone in the Packers organization actually thought that Webb was some sort of preview for Kaepernick, then they didn't deserve to win and really ought to be fired. Incredible. The same Joe Webb who hadn't thrown a pass in over a year. As preparation for Kaepernick.

 

[manly]

AstroManLuca,

If you haven't already, I think you'd enjoy reading Scorecasting. A lot of NFL examples, and of course the authors explain why they believe head coaches don't choose the optimal decisions. Bill Belichick is obviously one of the biggest riverboat gamblers in the league, but I won't give away any spoilers. My point was only that there are more head coaches like John Fox than BB in the league.

diesbudt,

Yes, the Pack got rolled but even before the costly game-changing turnovers and pathetic defense, there was a critical play that changed the complexion of the game. On the Niners second possession, they were doing nothing and facing 3rd and long. Kaep rolled out, Charles Woodson had to contain him on the edge and he dumped off to Frank Gore for a huge gain. Although it was very early and just 7-0, it felt like up until that break out the Packers had the opponent by the throat.

 

[Imported]

I thought the key was stopping the Packers on their opening drive of the 3rd quarter. They have thrived off of scoring in that first possession on the second half in particular.

 

[manly]

I thought the key was stopping the Packers on their opening drive of the 3rd quarter. They have thrived off of scoring in that first possession on the second half in particular.

It was very much still a game at halftime, unless you consider that the Niners had racked up a ridiculous 313 yards of total offense. The Packers only chance was if they could play a lot better D; at the time I stated that even allowing a robust 200 yards in the second half at least gave ARod and the receivers a puncher's chance. Not to take anything away from your team, but later on in the second half the D just quit like it did a year ago vs. the Giants.

But my point is that very early on, Kaepernick and Co. weren't doing anything and just one 3rd down conversion opened up the flood gates. In my view, it was that early conversion and then the Ross punt return muff that enabled Kaepernick to settle into the game and showcase his explosive offense.

But good point about establishing right away in the 3rd quarter that the Niners were taking control of the game.

 

[KMFJD]

NFL QB's on Facebook : Playoff Edition

http://profootballmock.com/nfl-qbs-on-facebook-divisional-roundup/

 

[SP33Demon]

Ravens are 9.5 Underdogs again lol, I love Vegas.

 

[thraashman]

Ravens are 9.5 Underdogs again lol, I love Vegas.

This one makes more sense though. There's a reason Tom Brady has the most post season wins of any QB, he doesn't make the mistaks in the post season that Manning did. But the Ravens are definitely amped up right now and riding high after beating the Broncos.

I'm hoping for a Ravens/Falcons Super Bowl. Flacco and Ryan were part of the same QB class. Tony Gonzalez and Ray Lewis, two of the best players at their position both retiring after this year facing eachother. It'd make a damn good game.

 

[darkewaffle]

NFL QB's on Facebook : Playoff Edition

http://profootballmock.com/nfl-qbs-on-facebook-divisional-roundup/

The Brady/Belichik bit and the constant Flacco jabs amused me.

 

[purbeast0]

*cough*

http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=34503231&postcount=224

*cough*

 

[hclarkjr]

*cough*

http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=34503231&postcount=224

*cough*

paging AMDZen, come take your medicine!!!

 

[SP33Demon]

I bet AMD just woke up in an alley somewhere.

 

[zinfamous]

*cough*

http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=34503231&postcount=224

*cough*

he now posting about hockey? wth is Rahimgate? wtf knows what the Denver hosiers are blaming this titanic loss on, but I'd be amused to find out what it is.

 

[MetalMat]

I bet AMD just woke up in an alley somewhere.

I think he is posting in the NHL thread