***Official*** 2012 Stock Market Thread

[Arachnotronic]

I'll make it.

So going into the new year, I'm thinking a play on OCZ's earnings is a good idea. They're extremely heavily shorted but earnings are likely to be good given past trends & increasing demand for SSDs given the price hikes on HDDs. Short squeeze, anybody?

Right now I'm mainly in cash (70%) but I'd really like to be in stocks -- but I'm banking on a serious crash before I buy anything, especially with a lot of the high yield stocks hitting record highs (like VZ, T, INTC, AEP, LLY).

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[Pliablemoose]

Riding the Apple quarterly earnings escalator for a few more weeks.

Since there's no way in hell I can beat what I did last year, will continue to play a short game, going for a percent or two gain.

Namaste, everyone

Or perhaps more appropriate for this thread, may Gint appear to you in your dreams with good advice

 

[Arachnotronic]

Right now my only holding is AMD -- and it appears to be dead money. However, I've played the quarterly earnings game with them for a year now and the short squeezes have happened every time -- hoping I get another payday come the 19th!

 

[Imp]

100% in cash. Should be staying that way for a few more days or weeks at least. DOW looks like it's bouncing around some upper resistance, and about to plunge back to the lower 11000 range. Let's see of a France downgrade makes it fall right through the bottom.

 

[Chadder007]

I'm holding Ford right now. They are reintroducing dividends in March.
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/12/31/ford-ends-2011-with-a-bang.aspx

 

[Pliablemoose]

Those of you with cash positions, why not hold Apple or Google for a few days while the price ramps up before earnings?

 

[ModerateRepZero]

Those of you with cash positions, why not hold Apple or Google for a few days while the price ramps up before earnings?

Because I'm skeptical that Apple or Google will have a big enough increase in stock price to justify short-term speculating with the higher capital gains tax.

I need to start devoting more time to investing...as it is, I've read "the Intelligent Investor" and "A Random Walk Down Wall Street", and try at least twice a month to read magazine articles with recommended stocks (ie dividend stocks such as Intel). But about the only investing I usually do is in my TSP (Thrift Savings Plan, govt. equivalent of 401K) and I try to switch from Treasuries to S&P 500 or another index when there's a big drop every 2-5 months.

 

[Imp]

Those of you with cash positions, why not hold Apple or Google for a few days while the price ramps up before earnings?

Not comfortable buying AAPL above $360, let alone $400. It's hitting resistance around $405-ish, and I just think I'm too late to the game. Same for GOOG - it has taken off and is long overdue for a crash back down to $550-ish. I feel stupif-ish for not holding GOOG from when I bought at $495 in Aug/Sept though; same goes for XOM I picked up for around $69 during that time.

All the charts I look at are just screaming for a 5-10% blip down right now (e.g. DOW, AAPL, GOOG, MSFT). Speculation - F-yeah!

 

[JEDI]

I'll make it.

So going into the new year, I'm thinking a play on OCZ's earnings is a good idea. They're extremely heavily shorted but earnings are likely to be good given past trends & increasing demand for SSDs given the price hikes on HDDs. Short squeeze, anybody?

Right now I'm mainly in cash (70&#37 but I'd really like to be in stocks -- but I'm banking on a serious crash before I buy anything, especially with a lot of the high yield stocks hitting record highs (like VZ, T, INTC, AEP, LLY).

2007 Stock Market Thread: 2007 Stock Market Thread

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ahh.. i was going to create a 2012 stock market thread. was going to do a search first, but search is borked.

connection to 192.168.0.42:3312 failed (errno=60, msg=Operation timed out)


anyway, i'm gambling on the S&P for short term gain.
if the 2011 S&P 500 = | > 2010 S&P 500, then there will be a spike in Jan 2012.
i say .4 points is close enuf.

bought $100k on SPY on 12/30/11.
sell point = +5%

 

[Arachnotronic]

Anybody got any short ideas?

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I am convinced that this is the year for housing/banks but more so housing. Go look at historical lumber shipments in the rail time indicators report. Housing is coming back.

If USG drops to $8, I am going to consider going 100% USG. Currently about 25% of my portfolio with a cost basis around $10.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Anybody got any short ideas?

SBUX is trading at 30x FCF.

GMCR - Green Mountain Coffee Roasters is a crap company that has been burning cash for years. It has 2 patents expiring in 2013. One is the K-cup which expires in Dec 2012. Don't know what hte other was. CNBC just mentioend that they have two big patent experations coming up.

 

[lothar]

Anybody got any short ideas?

AMD?

Sent from my GT-I9100

 

[KB]

I'm holding Ford right now. They are reintroducing dividends in March.
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/12/31/ford-ends-2011-with-a-bang.aspx

Ford already reinstated dividends last month. First is payable this month. I am holding ford because they didn't get the bounce they deserved from the news. Not to mention their P/E is near 6 and they just had the best month since 2007. Once they get rid of their big debts things will be great for them.

 

[darkxshade]

I have a position in OCZ & STEC myself and believe they will have good numbers. I'm not sure why they are so heavily shorted though.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Regarding Ford, what are the "other current assets" of $70 billion?

If those are actual short term assets, I think Ford is indeed grossly undervalued.

How on Earth are they reducing that long term debt? They are reducing it which is a good thing. The thing is, it is nearing reasonable levels.

$40B market cap with over $10B in FCF?

Interesting.

How abut options? The Jan 2014s 10 strikes are only $2.50!

 

[Imp]

Ford seems like a reasonable buy from my purely speculative standpoint. It's bottomed around ~$10 in the past few months. I don't know of any major external shocks that could send it down too much further like with banks (i.e. may be a panic sell, but not at an omfg world ending, company going bankrupt level).

The "Big Four" (or however many) banks just look dirt cheap, but again, Europe thing is asking for a panic sell that might blow through the bottom all banks have been forming since last August/September.

Asian markets (ones that bothered opening) were down last I checked last night to open the year. Fun year ahead!

 

[Corporate Thug]

Ford is a good buy. Their 2012 projections look good. The only thing "close" to a shock would be a UAW labor issue but AFAIK, those are resolved (for the time being).

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Every year I look at JNJ ... it seems to have gone no where but it's value keeps creeping up. 3.5% yield. Stock buyback are slowly reducing share count.

Other than recent years, all financial metrics have gone up. If you normalize the data it is hard to say that it is not a growing company.

 

[Arachnotronic]

AMD?

Sent from my GT-I9100

That'd be a bad move. I'm long AMD and have played earnings for the last year now -- they always impress and the shorts always squeeze money into my pocket.

AMD's got a good future. Fusion's a success, their GPU division has created a new uarch for HPC scenarios (big profit margins), and their Bulldozer server stuff is attractively priced.

 

[Arachnotronic]

I have a position in OCZ & STEC myself and believe they will have good numbers. I'm not sure why they are so heavily shorted though.

What's your average cost on OCZ? I'm thinking of playing their earnings.

 

[KB]

Good start to the year. I predict good earnings in Jan/Feb, with the Dow up to 13,000. In late Feb/March, Greek and other European debts come due and we get another correction. Maybe Greece finally defaults or goes back to the drachma. I am 50% stocks right now.

 

[darkxshade]

What's your average cost on OCZ? I'm thinking of playing their earnings.

About ~ $7.3/sh on OCZ & $10.5/sh on STEC so I'm in the red for now. Admittedly, I haven't done a lot of research into their financials but these are long term holds on a gut instinct that SSDs are the future of data storage and that I stand to profit once it goes heavily mainstream. I wanted to get into FIO as well but their IPO price was way higher than what I was willing to get in at.

 

[Imp]

WOW. I totally effed up and misplayed this one. Major rally and I checked out completely last week. More specifically, my single holding (SU) is up 5% since Friday and I sold 2% below Friday's close. Just "lost" two weeks worth of pay. Shit.

On a totally unrelated note, my work PC is running a full system virus scan on a morning... I have no work to do, huh?

 

[JTsyo]

Think I'll wait for the Dec 21st dip to buy ...