***Official*** 2012 Stock Market Thread

[Corporate Thug]

Lolcz

 

[chusteczka]

OCZ is literally a nightmare. We have been waiting for RIM's death while touting OCZ as it continues dropping further than anyone could possibly expect. Except for Hugo Drax who somehow knew it would reach $2.

I honestly do not understand how OCZ dropped from a $750 million + valuation down to a current $135 million. Is anyone able to explain how or why this happened?

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

OCZ has never had a Free Cash Flow positive year (not a single FCF positive quarter) and dilutes shareholders every year.

Tehy do have increasing revenues though.

I don't know the first things about OCZ. Looks liek they have been making aquisitions as evidenced by increased share count and and increasing revenues. So, the shareholder dilution point might be immaterial.

So, assuming shareholder dilution is not a real issue, that makes me wonder about FCF. It is horrible. What is their plan to turn things around?

What is going on with their inventory mangement. Turnover has gotten alot worse over time. That needs investigation also.

Valuation. Today OCZ's market cap is about $214 million. Total equity is about $250 million.

If there is a turn around plan to fix FCF, it is definitely cheap. If there is reason to think that they can get to $25 million in FCF annually and keep it there, this company is worth $750 million maybe. I think if "things" get fixed thoguh that FCf would be more along the lines of $40 million a year. So it could get close to a $1B market cap.

But everyone here already thought about these issues. I saw OCZ. Skimmed the financials and walked awway in about 5 minutes when everyone started talking about it here. Didn't want to disturb the herd.

 

[Arachnotronic]

When I sold out of OCZ at $5.00 after the warn (on cost of $5.40), I thought I might've been irrationally panicking. Guess not. Ugh...short sellers were dead on with this company.

 

[Blades]

Curious, what premium did you get what is the expiration for those short put. I am assuming you are okay with losing your entire 60K investment in the position.

Anyhow I am downgrading 12 month price target from 2.20 to .50 cents + delisting.

I feel bad for people who threw their entire nest egg or a good portion of it on this stock.

Bought 15k at 1.73 to patch things up. Still not patched. You assuming anyone is ok with losing anything is.. a bit much.

 

[Ricochet]

Looks like OCZ beat AMD on the spiral race downward. They were neck and neck before. When OCZ was accelerating upwards some months ago I felt left out on the opportunity especially reading some of the success stories here. Glad I didn't foolishly jump the bandwagon in hopes of further gain.

I been following AMD but I am too chicken shit to jump in with actual money. Still looking for positive sign in the PC market. I rather miss the bottom and catch on the upswing with a positive market trend.

Right now even NVDA looks interesting as it approaches the 52 week low.

 

[Blades]

Looks like OCZ beat AMD on the spiral race downward. They were neck and neck before. When OCZ was accelerating upwards some months ago I felt left out on the opportunity especially reading some of the success stories here. Glad I didn't foolishly jump the bandwagon in hopes of further gain.

I been following AMD but I am too chicken shit to jump in with actual money. Still looking for positive sign in the PC market. I rather miss the bottom and catch on the upswing with a positive market trend.

Right now even NVDA looks interesting as it approaches the 52 week low.

Reconsider the idea of 52 week low and take into account inflation. Try to calculate the value of the stock if you were to buy it using gold.

The stagflation pairs trade: short s&p, long gold.. Not saying do that, both seem a wee bit toppy. That said, gold is gold and unless we get hit by a large golden meteor (from outer space!!!), can't really dilute that. Remember the Weimar Republic, 50,000$ cheeseburgers anyone?

Hugo Drax: Since you asked me a silly question, I get to ask you one. Is that your real name? If so, are you a supervillian? Good day, Mister Drax. Muhahahaha

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Oh, looks liek OCZ is working on turning things around:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/916...-a-new-ceo-who-gets-it-is-a-turnaround-likely

 

[JTsyo]

Oh, looks liek OCZ is working on turning things around:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/916...-a-new-ceo-who-gets-it-is-a-turnaround-likely

sarcasm? There were articles like this the entire time they were sinking. If they can sell the new controller to others, then they might have a chance.

 

[SunnyD]

Oh, looks liek OCZ is working on turning things around:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/916...-a-new-ceo-who-gets-it-is-a-turnaround-likely

The only realistic turnaround they have in this space possible is that they're now priced quite realistically and the barriers have been removed (CEO) for a reasonable market acquisition.

Though I think they still need a two part player - one for the storage components and one for the "core" of the company (someone like Corsair or Antec for the power supples, etc).

 

[tfinch2]

anyone else playing Sprint? I think they have room to grow. Hoping for another dip to add more.

I got out of Sprint at $2.7x. I am kicking myself now.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

sarcasm? There were articles like this the entire time they were sinking. If they can sell the new controller to others, then they might have a chance.

I didn't get past the financials.

Now that the stock is so low, I might read more into the potential turn around. Not sarcasm. jsut that I've spent about 10 minutes in my life on OCZ.

 

[bookem dano]

I got out of Sprint at $2.7x. I am kicking myself now.

That's about the time I got in. I wish I would have put in more.
I say that about Ford too.

I really want the Grays Sports Almanac or the Grays Stocks Almanac for Christmas.

 

[fstime]

Does it seem like a bad time to get into the market for anybody else?

How are we above 13,000 points when the economy is still shit and the government's budget problem is still spiraling out of control?

Forget about these bogus recovery figures, we all know unemployment and under employment are still very high and many people are considered as "given up" searching for work.

Companies may be showing growth, but a lot of that must be from all the major employee cuts corporations have been making for the past years such as lay offs, hiring freezes, and part time only position openings. Eventually they will starve the hand that feeds them (the consumer).

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Economy is getting better. Construction is finally getting better.

The risk is a slow down in the world economy due to Europe.

I see some risk. People will either make the worste move or best move of their lives in staying in or out of the markets right now. I buy value though so I don't care either way.

 

[SunnyD]

Economy is getting better. Construction is finally getting better.

The risk is a slow down in the world economy due to Europe.

I see some risk. People will either make the worste move or best move of their lives in staying in or out of the markets right now. I buy value though so I don't care either way.

Spackling over a broken foundation only makes the outside look good until the foundation crumbles, then it all comes crashing down anyway.

That's all that's been happening over the last few years, that's all that's still going on. It only appears to be getting better because that's what the powers that be want you to see.

 

[FelixDeCat]

This is October. 'Nuff said.

AAPL reaches the 500s

Continued European turmoil

AMD, OCZ crash reflects weakness

Companies continue to disappoint

Time to lock in profits for the year, reload later

Market has downward momentum

 

[Corporate Thug]

I don't know MeowKat...the Euro zone situation is nothing new and probably will not be fully resolved for years to come; AMD, OCZ, and APPL is just indicative of sector...PC market is slowing down for AMD, OCZ is just a poorly managed company in the recent past with their own fair share of unexpected supply issues.

I think Q4 may still prove to be a good quarter. The majority of my holdings are biotechs/pharma with Q4 catalysts so I can't sell now...maybe I'm just trying to reassure myself that it's going to be not so bad.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I don't know MeowKat...the Euro zone situation is nothing new and probably will not be fully resolved for years to come; AMD, OCZ, and APPL is just indicative of sector...PC market is slowing down for AMD, OCZ is just a poorly managed company in the recent past with their own fair share of unexpected supply issues.

I think Q4 may still prove to be a good quarter. The majority of my holdings are biotechs/pharma with Q4 catalysts so I can't sell now...maybe I'm just trying to reassure myself that it's going to be not so bad.

I make decisions week to week. October may be bumpy (thats the trend right now....so I think we see more short term selloffs), but I think we might have a relief rally starting in November.

If you're in for the long term, its probably better to do nothing.

 

[SunnyD]

Q4 - my prediction (that doesn't matter):

Better than expected retail sales. Tech sells good (tablets, iPods, TV's, etc), but not so much for PCs.

Housing stagnates, job market continues to be pressed as "looking better" as some jobs are added and unemployment claims continue to fall, but the key that's not being told is those unemployment claims falling are a result of people exhausting their benefits and basically being screwed.

Financial starts to solidify as the market tightens up, but the next round of foreclosures is right around the corner.

Basic materials start to go up steadily as the US starts to pull back on foreign trade, especially with China tightening control on a lot of the more "important" stuff, might get really bad in a hurry now that the US is starting to get real stupid about trade tariffs on a lot of Chinese goods.

Foreign oil will continue to be propped up artificially even though demand will continue to go down, leaving consumers in a bind as petro products continue to price upwards over the next year.

After the holidays, and especially after the first 6 months of next year, I'm pretty sure we're going to find a HUGE tightening on consumer spending after people realize that prices/inflation are just going to keep outpacing their paychecks by a mile.

Bleak outlook: Economy in general in a tailspin by this time next year.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Spackling over a broken foundation only makes the outside look good until the foundation crumbles, then it all comes crashing down anyway.

That's all that's been happening over the last few years, that's all that's still going on. It only appears to be getting better because that's what the powers that be want you to see.

Facts don't lie:
http://www.aar.org/NewsAndEvents/~/media/aar/railtimeindicators/2012-10-rti.ashx

Pretty flat this year versus the past year or two. Rail traffic no where near the 2006 peak.

But lumber shipments are getting better every passsing year since the housing market crashed.

 

[sm625]

Check my indicator at http://www.rsitraders.com/
First signal since july.

 

[SunnyD]

Facts don't lie:
http://www.aar.org/NewsAndEvents/~/media/aar/railtimeindicators/2012-10-rti.ashx

Pretty flat this year versus the past year or two. Rail traffic no where near the 2006 peak.

But lumber shipments are getting better every passsing year since the housing market crashed.

I won't argue that things haven't gotten a little better, and it's at least a bit more even keel. Even spackle helps reinforce structure somewhat... but it doesn't take nearly as much load as fixing the structure in the first place.

As far as lumber goes, just a little anecdotal evidence on my end. I live in a fairly new, and growing, subdivision. When we first built two years ago, every house that was going up was under contract being built "custom" for each buyer. Normally they'd be working on about 6 to 8 houses at any given time.

Fast forward to today.

They're still putting up about 6 to 8 houses at any given time in our subdivision. However MAYBE one of those houses are under contract at the time construction starts. The majority of them are being built by the developer and then being put on the market either before or as soon as they are completed. I'd venture to guess that around 50% of the houses that were built in the last 9 months in our subdivision are still vacant. Same thing goes for several neighboring subdivisions (different builders) in the area.

New home starts are up, sales numbers aren't as rosy as you'd be lead to believe since inventory is being flooded now.

 

[Hugo Drax]

Reconsider the idea of 52 week low and take into account inflation. Try to calculate the value of the stock if you were to buy it using gold.

The stagflation pairs trade: short s&p, long gold.. Not saying do that, both seem a wee bit toppy. That said, gold is gold and unless we get hit by a large golden meteor (from outer space!!!), can't really dilute that. Remember the Weimar Republic, 50,000$ cheeseburgers anyone?

Hugo Drax: Since you asked me a silly question, I get to ask you one. Is that your real name? If so, are you a supervillian? Good day, Mister Drax. Muhahahaha

You can ask James Bond what he thinks.

No my question was serious, I find that trade you described (short 200 put contracts @ a strike price of 3) quite reckless. I assume you shorted the Jan 18, 2014 contracts.

I am not sure if you really traded such a position or not since it just seems a bit unbelievable at this point.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I won't argue that things haven't gotten a little better, and it's at least a bit more even keel. Even spackle helps reinforce structure somewhat... but it doesn't take nearly as much load as fixing the structure in the first place.

As far as lumber goes, just a little anecdotal evidence on my end. I live in a fairly new, and growing, subdivision. When we first built two years ago, every house that was going up was under contract being built "custom" for each buyer. Normally they'd be working on about 6 to 8 houses at any given time.

Fast forward to today.

They're still putting up about 6 to 8 houses at any given time in our subdivision. However MAYBE one of those houses are under contract at the time construction starts. The majority of them are being built by the developer and then being put on the market either before or as soon as they are completed. I'd venture to guess that around 50% of the houses that were built in the last 9 months in our subdivision are still vacant. Same thing goes for several neighboring subdivisions (different builders) in the area.

New home starts are up, sales numbers aren't as rosy as you'd be lead to believe since inventory is being flooded now.

It's good to see that you see the housing market. You're also aware that the unemployment level in housing related sectors was as high as 30% when unemployment was 10%. I doubt that unemployment levels have improved to 8% in housing related sectors at this time. Once housing inventories are fixed, alot of those people will be employed again and unemplyoment will fix itself. What is sad is that politicians will try to take this ineveitable outcome and claim it as their own doing.

I am finally seeing evidence of construction in my area (CT). There is even a cleared forest near my house that I suspect a small development is going into. Still not like it was 6 years ago though. I doubt we''l ever see such insanity (stupidity) again.