***Official*** 2012 Stock Market Thread

[thing1thing2]

Looks like they dropped because of analyst downgrades. AMD is cheap so they could be bought easily, but who wants to buy them? Most chip designers/manufacturers are using ARM chips which AMD isn't known for. Intel would be the only buyer, but I don't see that happening as they are already a near monoply on x86 chips and own most of the patents too.

I would think Samsung would be interested, true they have their own ARM product but buying AMD for cheap would give them an x86 product as well. This will at least hedge their bets on a x86 presence in the mobile market. And there's also the GPU department that will be an added benefit to their mobile ARM chips.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

AMD

Chronic share diluter.

FCF 2 of the last 10 years was positive. More recently, it has done much better. $100-$300 million range. Balance sheet good, not great.

Problem is FCF visibility. If they can maintain and grow $300m in FCF flow going forward it is cheap. Otehrwise it is not.

And even if they do, will they kill shareholders with dilution like in the past? The share count doubled in 10 years. Even if FCF doubles every 10 years, FCF/share is flat.

 

[Imp]

Did they release earnings or is this the pre-earnings drop?

Most recent news I saw was that they were cutting a big chunk of their workforce. Also, I saw some analyst downgrades.

 

[Imp]

Dow down almost 250 points.

Ya motha fu**a, ya...!

http://money.cnn.com/2012/10/23/investing/stocks-markets/index.html?source=cnn_bin

 

[Harrod]

I've got an order in on SD at 6.39 kindof wondering if I should cancel it and see how far it goes down.

 

[mshan]

Dunno, seems like yield on 10 year Treasury should be lower (low 1.6% range (?), not above 1.75%) if there were real panic in market (?)

Even if the QE Infinity rally failed and we're back in old trading range (http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/bull-market-long-tooth-yamada-120820358.html), something seemed to have changed in last few weeks because yield on 10 year Treasury is not zigging when stock market zags like it used to earlier this summer.

Slower global growth, but Fed and other central banks making headway against risks of deflation (?)

Domestic economy stronger, so Fed doesn't have to be as aggressive regarding QE Infinity (?)

Something else completely?



(FWIW, before QE Infintiy, Leon Cooperman was on CNBC Half Time Report (market was around 1430), and he thought market was fairly valued (http://www.cnbc.com/id/48912942/). Obama victory to him translated into fair market value of 1415, Romney 1500 (don't know if true fair value, or quick boom and bust))

 

[KB]

Dow down almost 250 points.

Ya motha fu**a, ya...!

http://money.cnn.com/2012/10/23/investing/stocks-markets/index.html?source=cnn_bin

I think its finally happening, the downturn I have waited for. I don't expect the downturn to last though. Should get an election rally and then another rally if we avert the fiscal cliff. Before the election I will probebly put almost 50% of my cash back to work.

 

[FelixDeCat]

LOL I told you people to sell.


You should have listened.

 

[Ricochet]

LOL I told you people to sell.


You should have listened.

They did listen. Thanks for causing the panic.

 

[Imp]

LOL I told you people to sell.


You should have listened.

It's not doing TOO bad. I think we're at roughly where we were a week ago. Now if it really starts tanking, then we have a story...

Hopefully it lasts because it's been "too much, too fast" in my mind. There doesn't seem like there's much more room to rally with everything at record highs, which means I sure as hell am not buying in at/near 52-week highs.

Die mofo die!

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I've got an order in on SD at 6.39 kindof wondering if I should cancel it and see how far it goes down.

I was going to sell soem in the 7s but decided not to. Boy, do I regret that decision. Low 6s is pretty good for SD. Could go lower though.

 

[TheNinja]

LOL I told you people to sell.


You should have listened.

Well you had about a 50% chance of being right...so congrats

 

[mshan]

There was this Vadim Z guy (Alliance Bernstein) on CNBC right after 3PM.

I've seen him comment on tv before, and his insights seem pretty good.

He said he thought this sell-off was a short-term "de-risking rally" (rotation out of high flyers into more defensive and less pricey growth names?), and potential for modest further downside. Seems consistent with a stodgy, boring large cap value mutual fund like Dodge & Cox Stock (http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=DODGX&region=USA&culture=en-us) still doing well in this market. Longleaf Partners fund (LLPFX), a concentrated value fund that invests in great businesses when they are temporarily out of favor for whatever reason and holds for ~ long-term (i. e. 5 year range http://www.gmo.com/websitecontent/JGLetter_ALL_4-12.pdf has also seems to be gaining in relative performance vs other mutual funds I track and vs. broad market indexes also.

Obviously, though, we won't know if Vadim is right or wrong until well after the fact.




edit: Vadim Z comments at beginning of this video clip http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000124560&play=1

 

[Corporate Thug]

FB running after hours on earnings report.

 

[Ricochet]

Dow down almost 250 points.

Ya motha fu**a, ya...!

http://money.cnn.com/2012/10/23/investing/stocks-markets/index.html?source=cnn_bin

Nah, after seeing consecutive 500pt drops circa 2008 it hardly felt like anything.

 

[FelixDeCat]

FB running after hours on earnings report.

FB sucks big weenies. I had some calls on that poc and lost money on it. Now all of a sudden its 'the best stock evarrrrr!!!1111!11!'

Bullchip. Its going sub $20 before you know it.

Load up on puts when the rally loses its legs. :twisted:

 

[SSSnail]

Bought some 60 nflx puts for the 26th right before the close, ka-ching! :awe:

 

[Imp]

Nah, after seeing consecutive 500pt drops circa 2008 it hardly felt like anything.

Don't even have to go to circa 2008. It happened in August of 2011 post "debt ceiling crisis". Shit I lost a lot of money that week...

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Am I the only one that remembers a time 12 years ago when a 0.6% move in either direction was a big move? What the hell has happened to investing that things swing so god damned much?

 

[SSSnail]

Am I the only one that remembers a time 12 years ago when a 0.6% move in either direction was a big move? What the hell has happened to investing that things swing so god damned much?

Technical based high frequency trading, knee jerk online trading, manipulation... Take your pick.

 

[blipblop]

FB sucks big weenies. I had some calls on that poc and lost money on it. Now all of a sudden its 'the best stock evarrrrr!!!1111!11!'

Bullchip. Its going sub $20 before you know it.

Load up on puts when the rally loses its legs. :twisted:

Can't put my finger on this just yet. I have $15 puts that expire in Dec that I loaded up on in August. Still holding on for the ride.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Can't put my finger on this just yet. I have $15 puts that expire in Dec that I loaded up on in August. Still holding on for the ride.

I would dump those puts when FB goes back under $20. You only have 60 days left and I doubt its going to $15.

 

[sm625]

I'm calling for a stock market crash within the next 10 trading sessions. See my trade blog for more information. http://rsitraders.com/

This is coming before the election. Buying SPY Nov 130 puts at 33 cents and Nov 140 puts at $2.0

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I'm calling for a stock market crash within the next 10 trading sessions. See my trade blog for more information. http://rsitraders.com/

This is coming before the election. Buying SPY Nov 130 puts at 33 cents and Nov 140 puts at $2.0

I have a hard time seeingthat happen when the housing market is improving and we are probably a year away from seeing construction at historically normal levels as the oversupply disappears. I'm only surprised that this hasn't happened yet. I thought it would have happened about 12 months ago based on research I did shortly after the crash and by comments from Warren Buffett that reinforced my ideas after the crash. I think this is why Buffett saw unemployment getting to under 7.2% before election day. The economy right now is primed to improve. It's just a matter of housing recovering.

 

[jpiniero]

I agree about the crash, but less certain as to when. But I think it's becoming before the end of the year.