***Official*** 2012 Stock Market Thread

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Pliablemoose

Lifer
Oct 11, 1999
25,195
0
56
Well, have officially lost my mind, I agree with Cramer.

After the bell, Apple will report earnings. To Cramer, it appears as though the technology company posted strong sales numbers over the holiday shopping season. In addition to its popular iPhone 4S device, the company has other new products and iterations on the way.

Earlier this week, the stock hit its all-time high, but Cramer isn’t sure that’s necessarily a good thing. If Apple simply announces a very good quarter, it won’t be enough. Then again, there are enough analysts with conservative numbers, so Cramer thinks Apple has some wiggle room.

“I think the last month of Apple's quarter may have been the biggest ever. I get that from listening to the conference calls of Apple suppliers and realizing that Apple couldn't order enough parts to fulfill demand,” Cramer said. “That's the best tell of a company's quarter I know of. I bet Apple will do the exact opposite of what Google [GOOG 585.99 -53.58 (-8.38%) did [recently] and blow away the numbers.”

http://www.cnbc.com/id/46076635

Wish me luck, I'm going in... D:
 
Last edited:

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
11,364
2,373
136
Well, have officially lost my mind, I agree with Cramer.



http://www.cnbc.com/id/46076635

Wish me luck, I'm going in... D:
Cramer's not saying anything you don't already know. Apple themselves have already guided for the first-ever $30 billion quarter ($37B to be exact). Whispers are that the iPhone sold very well, while Macs were flat from the previous sequential quarter (still double digits YoY).

I don't expect P/E multiple expansion from AAPL anymore, contraction has been the trend for a while now. With half of ATOT hoping for a market correction, I wouldn't load up the truck on AAPL. If everything pulls back, you'll get another opportunity with the next few months.

Good luck!
 
Sep 29, 2004
18,665
67
91
Cramer's not saying anything you don't already know. Apple themselves have already guided for the first-ever $30 billion quarter ($37B to be exact). Whispers are that the iPhone sold very well, while Macs were flat from the previous sequential quarter (still double digits YoY).

I don't expect P/E multiple expansion from AAPL anymore, contraction has been the trend for a while now. With half of ATOT hoping for a market correction, I wouldn't load up the truck on AAPL. If everything pulls back, you'll get another opportunity with the next few months.

Good luck!

Depending on companies, I still see a few with 30% upside. Overall, I think the Dow could break 14,000 this year.

The problem I am others had is a fun view of the Dow running up and tanking. Running up[ and tanking. That process will repeat until it doesn't. I think a bunch of us just got burned. Sitting on my hands and doing nothing would have me up 20% THIS YEAR. Right now I am up about 8%. I should have sat on my hands. That's pretty much what i did for the past year and at the end I got fed up with watching the ups and downs. In the end, I lost out.

Praying for a dip
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
I've been tracking the DOW daily since October 2010. Off the top of my head, the DOW was 11,000-ish in late 2010, made the run up to the low 12,000 in the first quarter of 2011, then tanked a few times to the mid/high-11k range and back to 12k a few times through to August. Then there was the US "debt crisis" and it tanked to high 10k, and went up to low/mid-12,000 a bunch of times (10% weekly swings), and finally made a sustained run up to the mid 12k where it is now.

The pessimist in me wants a run back down to mid 11k due to idiocy with Greece/Italy, but something in the back of my mind says it may make it to the low 13k mark, and then tank. I trade on emotion (it's hard), so I'm going to sit on min 80% cash until it tanks (at 90% now).

Cliffs: DOW appears to take at least one big dip for every thousand points it goes up.
 

JTsyo

Lifer
Nov 18, 2007
11,774
919
126
Stock option question. My wife has some stock options from work that are through etrade. They are vested now and have an option to exercise. Would exercising mean that we have to buy them at the price they were granted or sell them now for the difference in price between then and now?
 

The-Noid

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2005
3,117
0
76
Stock option question. My wife has some stock options from work that are through etrade. They are vested now and have an option to exercise. Would exercising mean that we have to buy them at the price they were granted or sell them now for the difference in price between then and now?

What type of option. Incentive Stock Option or Employee Stock Option?

The brokerage firm will help you out, give them a call.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
Anyone else in Ford? Feels like it could go higher but feeling nervous!

Longer term, Ford should be fine. It's been said a bunch of times: average age of cars on the road are old and they'll need replacement... once people can afford it.

I played and got burned, so don't feel like playing anymore when other stocks have better/equal short term potential.
 

SSSnail

Lifer
Nov 29, 2006
17,461
82
86
Stock option question. My wife has some stock options from work that are through etrade. They are vested now and have an option to exercise. Would exercising mean that we have to buy them at the price they were granted or sell them now for the difference in price between then and now?
Depends, if you want to hold the stocks then you'll have to fork over the cash, if the exercise price is lower than the listed price then you'll get the difference, minus fees. Everything should be sorted out by your broker, ask them.
 

JTsyo

Lifer
Nov 18, 2007
11,774
919
126
It's e-trade so I guess I could just write an e-mail. From looking at their tools, looks like if I exercise it we get the difference.
 

SSSnail

Lifer
Nov 29, 2006
17,461
82
86
It's e-trade so I guess I could just write an e-mail. From looking at their tools, looks like if I exercise it we get the difference.

Just pick up the phone. One thing to remember, they don't withhold taxes.
 
Sep 29, 2004
18,665
67
91
^Good to see it worked out for you. Everytime I played with pennies, I got burned.

Thanks...

Lee is a newspaper. People think print is dead. It is not. An improving economy will easily project FCF up for newspapers as unemployment improves along with real estate. Real estate and help wanted ads are the two primary revenue generators of newspapers. Take a company like Lee that is teetering on the edge (but clearly not over it) and mix in an improving economy and walla. my mistake was trying to trade it and a handful of other stocks when I should have adhered to the value investing mantra.
 

JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
Thanks...

Lee is a newspaper. People think print is dead. It is not. An improving economy will easily project FCF up for newspapers as unemployment improves along with real estate. Real estate and help wanted ads are the two primary revenue generators of newspapers. Take a company like Lee that is teetering on the edge (but clearly not over it) and mix in an improving economy and walla. my mistake was trying to trade it and a handful of other stocks when I should have adhered to the value investing mantra.

1) Print is dead. Absolutely dead.
2) LEE is not undervalued. Enterprise value is still 5-6x EBITDA, which is high for a [still] highly leveraged company who's experiencing steady revenue attrition.
3) I predict another debt restructure/bk when the debt matures in 3 years.
 

The-Noid

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2005
3,117
0
76
1) Print is dead. Absolutely dead.
2) LEE is not undervalued. Enterprise value is still 5-6x EBITDA, which is high for a [still] highly leveraged company who's experiencing steady revenue attrition.
3) I predict another debt restructure/bk when the debt matures in 3 years.

I am a macro guy and not by my term so I don't know the answer to this maybe you do.

If he likes the equity, I assume the HY or loans are available. How do they look from a capital structure standpoint? Better than the equities, while still being able to leverage positive results in the company?
 

JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
I am a macro guy and not by my term so I don't know the answer to this maybe you do.

If he likes the equity, I assume the HY or loans are available. How do they look from a capital structure standpoint? Better than the equities, while still being able to leverage positive results in the company?

I have a post in this thread explaining that I used to work for a print company that restructured and filed bankruptcy while managing the digital strategy (which I was a part of).

If anything buying the debt would have been the move. When my company filed BK, the debt was trading for 15c on the dollar, and re-emerged with new debt + equity at ~80% value. The prior equity was wiped out. The company's stock is currently now again back to BK levels within a couple years of BK.

I'm surprised LEE got away with preserving equity and only diluting it by 15%. I had looked into it before I think but I don't think LEE has any publicly traded debt. They are all probably bank debt mixed with privately held notes.
 

The-Noid

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2005
3,117
0
76
I have a post in this thread explaining that I used to work for a print company that restructured and filed bankruptcy while managing the digital strategy (which I was a part of).

If anything buying the debt would have been the move. When my company filed BK, the debt was trading for 15c on the dollar, and re-emerged with new debt + equity at ~80% value. The prior equity was wiped out. The company's stock is currently now again back to BK levels within a couple years of BK.

I'm surprised LEE got away with preserving equity and only diluting it by 15%. I had looked into it before I think but I don't think LEE has any publicly traded debt. They are all probably bank debt mixed with privately held notes.

I'll run it tomorrow. Something interesting to look at.
 

SSSnail

Lifer
Nov 29, 2006
17,461
82
86
I jumped into another printing company last wednesday on the big dip, my position is up a bit, but if I hold out for another two days the company goes ex-div. Contemplating whether I should dump tomorrow.... Oh, it's RRD. What do you think js80?
 
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