***Official*** 2012 Stock Market Thread

[rcpratt]

I don't think I'd buy anymore Ford until next week sometime. It's pretty elevated at the moment and I feel it's staying up around this level because of earnings on Friday, after which it may get a slight bump from those numbers but I suspect it will then trend down for a bit. I'm looking to try and get out of my positions at over 13, then try and get back in closer to 12. Have to see if that happens or not.

I'm likely going to be getting out sometime tomorrow or Thursday, we'll see what I hear. I'm not optimistic about being able to get out above 13, but I'll definitely be buying back in soon.

 

[Arachnotronic]

Is anybody making a play on AMD earnings? Also, ARMH and MIPS should be reporting soon, so those might be worth it for the ramp up to earnings.

 

[goog40]

Well, have officially lost my mind, I agree with Cramer.



http://www.cnbc.com/id/46076635

Wish me luck, I'm going in... D:

*high-five*

 

[manly]

Well, have officially lost my mind, I agree with Cramer.



http://www.cnbc.com/id/46076635

Wish me luck, I'm going in... D:

*high-five*

I'm speechless; wish I owned more shares.

 

[The-Noid]

*high-five*

Huge beat for AAPL.

 

[goog40]

$46 billion revenue, $13.87 EPS. 37 million iPhones, 15.4 million iPads. Ridiculous.

 

[The-Noid]

$46 billion revenue, $13.87 EPS. 37 million iPhones, 15.4 million iPads. Ridiculous.

It's the margins that are shocking...I think we see a good pop on margins.

 

[The-Noid]

16:45 : DJ Apple (AAPL) Resumed Trading

They are always a few minutes early. I would expect trade in 5 minutes. Ask is showing up however.

 

[manly]

$46 billion revenue, $13.87 EPS. 37 million iPhones, 15.4 million iPads. Ridiculous.

It's the margins that are shocking...I think we see a good pop on margins.

not really, the "latest and greatest" iPhone is estimated to have close to 70% gross profit margins. I think even the old models are good for 50%.

Not only did the iPhone units sold beat the wildest expectations, but iPad and Mac sales also beat optimistic estimates. I've been following Apple for years, and this is truly stunning considering the size of their business and the law of large numbers.

 

[Hugo Drax]

Looks like AAPL gonna jump 18% AH.

looking at the orderbook no prints on the tape yet. I saw 500 bid for a second on the book.

 

[Hugo Drax]

Tape running fast 460s

 

[The-Noid]

460/.98 Open.

 

[The-Noid]

not really, the "latest and greatest" iPhone is estimated to have close to 70% gross profit margins. I think even the old models are good for 50%.

Not only did the iPhone units sold beat the wildest expectations, but iPad and Mac sales also beat optimistic estimates. I've been following Apple for years, and this is truly stunning considering the size of their business and the law of large numbers.

Consensus for margins was 40.8 the high analyst was at 42.01. Smashed at 44.68. That is as big as surprise as any.

 

[The-Noid]

454.00/.10 @ 16:55

 

[manly]

Consensus for margins was 40.8 the high analyst was at 42.01. Smashed at 44.68. That is as big as surprise as any.

(I'm clearly not a pro) True but it's just simply a function of how many iPhones were sold. It's not like they went to suppliers and squeezed costs out of them Wal-Mart style (although at this point, they probably could).

 

[The-Noid]

(I'm clearly not a pro) True but it's just simply a function of how many iPhones were sold. It's not like they went to suppliers and squeezed costs out of them Wal-Mart style (although at this point, they probably could).

It's the fact that Macs and iPads beat too. They are lower margin products however weighted margins were still high.

 

[cirrrocco]

Sell AAPL at market open tmw?

I was guessing 45B but they even beat that.

 

[The-Noid]

Just a bit of trivia here for everyone as well.

Regardless of the horrible reporting that goes on, AAPL is not the biggest company in the world. Not even close.

Saudi Aramco is the biggest company in the world.

AAPL above 451 is the largest public company in the US, that would be a factual statement.

 

[JEDI]

Consensus for margins was 40.8 the high analyst was at 42.01. Smashed at 44.68. That is as big as surprise as any.

cramer was wrong about selling aapl b4 they release

 

[Pliablemoose]

*high-five*

I'm considering doing a naked lap around this thread. Holy shit, I was hoping for $12/share, I'm flipping blown away.

This will be an insane year for Apple, the iP5 will be a massive product, and the iPad will sell like fucking crazy.

Apple sold more iPads than HP sold computers last year.

Sell AAPL at market open tmw?

I was guessing 45B but they even beat that.

I would hold off a bit, I think we'll see the price ramp up for 2 days because of the massive numbers.

 

[Imp]

Sigh, me and my lack of faith in Apple.

 

[Pliablemoose]

Sigh, me and my lack of faith in Apple.

Today was flipping tense as hell for me, I had a lot riding on the earnings this quarter, and I advised a co worker to hold through earnings, I stood to lose more than she had invested, but I was really more anxious because I tend to not give advice on investing, because I hate to think someone lost money because of me, and because I don't want to put my reputation on the line (in meatspace and here too)

I do think that unless 100 minors come forward and say SJ molested them tomorrow, that Apple will do very well this year.

The secret is that since they're so damned secretive, the stock price is easily manipulated by hedge funds who start rumors, short the stock, then bet on Apple to beat earnings and ride it back up. The price swings are so wide, it's an easy stock to make money on.

In a week or so, the rumors will start again "Apple has production yield problems with the new retina display on iPad 3" "Apple stores are actually keeping stock on the shelves this quarter and not selling out" "The Foxconn factory explosion in Bumfuck China will cripple the supply chain" "Android phones are outselling the iPhone this week at Sprint stores in cities that start with the letter "L" in their name", "The iPhone 5 makes dwarves sterile" et al...

The reality is that the cheaper Apple products like the iPad, the iPhone, iPod Touch are gateway devices that suck you into the Apple ecosystem, and if you don't want a ton of flexibility in your mobile devices, and let's face it, Jill and Joe Blow don't, and they like that their status symbol relatively simple device works like a hammer or a screwdriver works, and boy, doesn't that MacBook Pro, MacBook Air, Apple TV, Apple device look cool as hell, and doesn't it sort of work with apps I already have and damn, look at that cool case I can get for my Apple device X, and won't Harold at work be impressed with the app I just got for my Apple device all factor into Apple's success so far.

Apple can really screw the pooch too, but they've done a masterful job at what they've done so far.

 

[jessieqwert]

Probably closing my april 405 calls tomorrow. No telling if April will be a swing up or down.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

cramer was wrong about selling aapl b4 they release

I'll never forget watching an interview with a well known value investor that is older. Like 70+. Very smart guy. On CNBC, they asked him what he thinks of Cramer. At first he didn't want to answer. But they kept prodding. And he smiled and said that Cramer was right about half of the time. I laughed my ass off.

 

[Pliablemoose]

From a poster on the Yahoo Finance Apple stock message board who's been pretty accurate so far:

Welcome to retirement my friend, what a way to enter retirement huh?

Still see $500 come April? I see it clearer than day now.. Imagine how big the Iphone # will be in the March quarter, 41-44 Million.. China, Brazil, and Russia were not even selling Iphones for the December quarter.

Then we have Ipad3 coming which will probably sell 6-7 mililon units alone in March LOL.. Then you have the IPAD2 dropping down $100 and will sell another 4 Million units in March.. So we could see 10-11 Million Ipads in just march so figure a slow Jan - Feb and we get 2 million in Jan 3 million in Feb you are looking at 16-17MM IPads in March quarter and we enter June quarter with huge back log of demand for Ipad 3 and then the talk of Iphone 5 is gonna start kicking in high gear.

The moral of this story is the stock is going much much much higher.. I still stand by my Dec 31, 2011 target of $600... Last year I called for $450 on Dec 31 2011 I missed it by 24 days, on Dec 31 ,2010 I called for $350 and missed it by around 21 days.. I would say I have this pretty figured out! $$$$

Watch and Learn!!!