***Official*** 2012 Stock Market Thread

[IHateMyJob2004]

Apple .... I only ponder one thing. What will happen when Droid based equivalents cost 80% less than the Apple product?

I know trading is fun and all but no one drools over a TI-83 anymore.

 

[bookem dano]

The American people, that once wanted freedom has been quick to conform to Apple merely because it has been easy.

I like the droids. I finally upgraded to one. It's very close to being able to be an apple threat, but it lacks the stringent requirements Apple imposes.

But, in the end, people will be swayed by price. Once that starts, Apple would be stupid to not change.

One thing Apple has going for it is the way it handles paid for apps. At some point their profit from virtual sales will be larger than their profit from hardware sales. Anyone know their current ratio?

Still kickin myself for not putting $1000 at < $20/share, but couldn't risk the gamble at that point.

 

[manly]

Apple .... I only ponder one thing. What will happen when Droid based equivalents cost 80% less than the Apple product?

I know trading is fun and all but no one drools over a TI-83 anymore.

can't believe they beat the Street again. I'm going to write a letter to the SEC to investigate this emerging Enron.

 

[Pliablemoose]

Apple .... I only ponder one thing. What will happen when Droid based equivalents cost 80% less than the Apple product?

I know trading is fun and all but no one drools over a TI-83 anymore.

Your post makes no sense. I really don't think you understand the sector very well. You don't have to understand it, I think your strengths are in the other sectors.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

True, I don't understand tech that well. I do know it evolves rapidly though. The changes that occur in tech over 5 years take 100 years in other industries. Things that were hot 10 years ago are dull and boring today and things that are hot today .... well .... That's what apple fan boys tend to ignore.

Here's what I do understand. Calculators when new cost $400 for a simple +-/* function calculator. As time passed, competitors appeared and prices dropped from $400 to $4. No one is going to pay $500 for something when something that is nearly identical sells for $50. The moat surrounding Apple's products will recede quicker than most people today can comprehend. 10 years from now, no one will be drooling over Apple products.

 

[Pliablemoose]

True, I don't understand tech that well. I do know it evolves rapidly though. The changes that occur in tech over 5 years take 100 years in other industries. Things that were hot 10 years ago are dull and boring today and things that are hot today .... well .... That's what apple fan boys tend to ignore.

Here's what I do understand. Calculators when new cost $400 for a simple +-/* function calculator. As time passed, competitors appeared and prices dropped from $400 to $4. No one is going to pay $500 for something when something that is nearly identical sells for $50. The moat surrounding Apple's products will recede quicker than most people today can comprehend. 10 years from now, no one will be drooling over Apple products.

You're right, Apple is doomed&#8482;

 

[The-Noid]

You're right, Apple is doomed™

I am more hesitant about ipad3. Just looking around personally. We bought an iPad for my wife's parents for Christmas. My parents bought two, etc. There are a lot of people with iPads that aren't going to jump on a new one. Having said that, everyone I meet with now has an iPad in business, which bodes well for sales. Getting the enterprise I think was a huge help to the quarter.

 

[onza]

I'm angry I only own 4shares of apple. Wish I purchased more when it was at 100-160.. FML

 

[PimpJuice]

True, I don't understand tech that well. I do know it evolves rapidly though. The changes that occur in tech over 5 years take 100 years in other industries. Things that were hot 10 years ago are dull and boring today and things that are hot today .... well .... That's what apple fan boys tend to ignore.

Here's what I do understand. Calculators when new cost $400 for a simple +-/* function calculator. As time passed, competitors appeared and prices dropped from $400 to $4. No one is going to pay $500 for something when something that is nearly identical sells for $50. The moat surrounding Apple's products will recede quicker than most people today can comprehend. 10 years from now, no one will be drooling over Apple products.

Wow, this is probably the dumbest thing I've read in this thread.

 

[Pliablemoose]

Wow, this is probably the dumbest thing I've read in this thread.

LOL, I know, :biggrin:

As Voltare said, "Common sense is not so common."

I also didn't appreciate the "Apple fan boys" BS, this thread is about investing, not name calling and bias. I'd rather have a nice fat wallet than principles and a sour grapes attitude.

Of course 10 year old tech isn't popular, tech lasts about as long as a head of cabbage, unrefrigerated.

 

[JTsyo]

True, I don't understand tech that well. I do know it evolves rapidly though. The changes that occur in tech over 5 years take 100 years in other industries. Things that were hot 10 years ago are dull and boring today and things that are hot today .... well .... That's what apple fan boys tend to ignore.

Here's what I do understand. Calculators when new cost $400 for a simple +-/* function calculator. As time passed, competitors appeared and prices dropped from $400 to $4. No one is going to pay $500 for something when something that is nearly identical sells for $50. The moat surrounding Apple's products will recede quicker than most people today can comprehend. 10 years from now, no one will be drooling over Apple products.

I don't know about that. Apple has been able to lead into new markets and take a good foothold while while everyone else has to work up to them. First it was iPods, then iPhone and iPads. I'm sure they are using their huge cash reserves to work on the next product.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

1) apple inovates ... success
2) competitor clones
1) apple inovates ... success
2) competitor clones
1) apple inovates ... failure
2) competitor makes their last clone cheaper/better
3) ?????

Eventually Apple will try to enter a new market segment or create a new market segment and it will fail. Or the evolution of a current product will be greated with shoulder shrugs by the public. It is a matter of when, not if. With a quickly evolving industry like the one Apple is involved in, it could be 2 years from now that this occurs. And when it occurs and people start thinking that earnings are about to stall or fail, the stock will get hammered. I don't think this will hapen next week. I do know it will happen. And I know it will not take 20 years.

And since people take things out of context, I will be clear. I am not saying it is going to happen 2 years from now.

As an investor, I don't worry about what people think of my thoughts. They involve more thought than going to macrumors.com and reading the thoughts of others (articles, analysts, etc). Only time will prove me right or wrong. And in my case, I don't care if I am right or wrong 20 years from now. I know that I am not taking risk now.

Seems that this is not a valuable conversation. Group think will always win against indepent thought. I will end it now in defeat. Good luck to all.

 

[Pliablemoose]

IHMJ, respectfully, this is an investing and trading thread, not an Appe.bashing thread, STFU.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

A &#8220;collective&#8221; mind does not exist. It is merely the sum of endless numbers of individual minds. If we have an endless number of individual minds who are weak, meek, submissive and impotent &#8211; who renounce their creative supremacy for the sake of the &#8220;whole&#8221; and accept humbly that the &#8220;whole&#8217;s&#8221; verdict &#8211; we don&#8217;t get a collective super-brain. We get only the weak, meek, submissive and impotent collective mind.

&#8213; Ayn Rand

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

IHMJ, respectfully, this is an investing and trading thread, not an Appe.bashing thread, STFU.

Everytihing I have stated ths far is founded in the mold of value investing. Value investing more than looking at hte financial statements. It is philosphy, psycology, moats, etc.

I have not once bashed Apple saying that the products suck, etc. They have good products. Their competitive durable advantage is not as good as people think.

I am speaking as an investor. Maybe that's the difference. Everyone else is using a traders perspective. Fair to state that?

Don't tell people to STFU just because you disagree with an investment related statement. No one has made a single counter argument. I have been countered with personal attacks and bashing and laughing. not that i care. If one or two vocal people are immediately dismissive, everyone will use confirmation bias and be dismissive.

To re-iterate:

If we have an endless number of individual minds who are weak, meek, submissive and impotent &#8211; who renounce their creative supremacy for the sake of the &#8220;whole&#8221; and accept humbly that the &#8220;whole&#8217;s&#8221; verdict &#8211; we don&#8217;t get a collective super-brain.

And don't take the quote as a personal attack. Actually take a deep breath and think about the quote and how people actually interact here.

 

[Pliablemoose]

I've said my piece, you admittedly don't understand the sector, your comments are way off the mark, and you've used pejorative terms to describe Apple owners and investors, please refrain from commenting on a swctor you admittedly don't understand.

You said in the last thread I was being untruthful, and proven wrong, you just keep digging that hole deeper with each post.

 

[SSSnail]

Allow me to be the mediator here, and I do see both sides of your arguments. In the end though, pliable moose is right, and to translate his thoughts into something easily understood, he's saying that there are always stupid people that love shiny things, or belonging to the "me too" crowd, or lazy, or love to be confined to a specificity, because that's who they are, and there are many of them.

In other words, AAPL is not going anywhere.

 

[darkxshade]

I don't think Apple is going to fade into oblivion but I also think they can't sustain. They've overtaken Exxon. The thing is that Exxon will continue to stay where they are because you don't need to innovate gas. All they have to do is sell it. Apple cannot sell iphones and ipads indifinitely and to IHMJs credit I guess that's what he's referring to. Technology can seemly change overnight if you're not paying attention and all it takes is one misstep. You wouldn't think 20 years ago that Kodak would be filing for bankruptcy because it would be crazy to think film would be obsolete. Then reality smacks you in the face. Smartphones is not the end all be all of communications... but 10 years from now, we'll still be relying on gas.

 

[PimpJuice]

Allow me to be the mediator here, and I do see both sides of your arguments. In the end though, pliable moose is right, and to translate his thoughts into something easily understood, he's saying that there are always stupid people that love shiny things, or belonging to the "me too" crowd, or lazy, or love to be confined to a specificity, because that's who they are, and there are many of them.

In other words, AAPL is not going anywhere.

I don't think IHMJ understands that nobody here is committing to AAPL for 30+ years. There is money to be made RIGHT NOW, and that's what people are investing in. Just because you don't believe in trading doesn't mean there is no place for taking advantage of a short term situation.

There are lots of people who are value investors like you, and a lot of them lost a shitload of money the past few years so that's not a sure thing either. The history of the stock market is not very long......nothing is a sure thing anymore.

Some people don't have as long of a time frame as you, so really you are out of line. You should slap yourself for comparing AAPL to calculators.

 

[manly]

I am more hesitant about ipad3. Just looking around personally. We bought an iPad for my wife's parents for Christmas. My parents bought two, etc. There are a lot of people with iPads that aren't going to jump on a new one. Having said that, everyone I meet with now has an iPad in business, which bodes well for sales. Getting the enterprise I think was a huge help to the quarter.

A recent survey right after Christmas showed about 20% of adult Americans have a tablet (similar figure for eReaders). I'm not fully convinced about the so-called "Post-PC" world but it's definitely a growing trend to follow. The current adoption of tablets could be compared to where smartphones were a couple years ago, there's still headroom remaining.

Even smartphones have captured less than half of Verizon's postpaid customers (generally the highest average bills in the U.S., presumably most likely to have smartphones) so I don't feel we've reached market saturation in the U.S. Globally feature phones still dominate total sales, so iPhone and Android are still plucking low-hanging fruit as the market continues to expand.

I remember when Apple launched the iPhone 5 years ago, Steve Jobs talked about the size of the mobile phone market, 1B handsets sold per year and just a tiny fraction of industry sales were smartphones. Apparently that number is rapidly approaching 2 billion units annually. 37 million iPhones in Q1 sounds "insanely great" until you compare it to the size of the industry, even taking into account many customers don't want or cannot afford any smartphone.

Otherwise I agree with you that hyper-growth can't continue forever and I'd consider the blockbuster Q1 to be a "perfect storm" of execution.

 

[The-Noid]

Anyone noticed streaming of actual NYSE symbols died late in the day?

Some of the quotes on second/third markets still worked (bats was off and on, ARCA worked fine) but actual direct exchange quotes disappeared and went 0/0 bid/ask.

JNJ for example is one I always have open for relative performance and first went 0 bid then 0 ask. Not exactly sure how that happened and what effect that had on off exchange quotes (I always pull first exchange before the pools) and how if affected anyone what was trading quite a few symbols (list should be on website soon) after 3:30ET or so.

Saw a report it was symbols HO-JNZ but not sure.

JNJ-N 65.22 +.22 0.00/0.00 0x0 Vlm 1819014

 

[Imp]

Okay... yay Apple....

Slowly backing out...

 

[JS80]

I've said my piece, you admittedly don't understand the sector, your comments are way off the mark, and you've used pejorative terms to describe Apple owners and investors, please refrain from commenting on a swctor you admittedly don't understand.

You said in the last thread I was being untruthful, and proven wrong, you just keep digging that hole deeper with each post.

Just ignore him. He's way off on this. Just like he can never rebut anything I counter on his pet stocks.

 

[Pliablemoose]

Just ignore him. He's way off on this. Just like he can never rebut anything I counter on his pet stocks.

I get a kick out of the penny stocks...

 

[SSSnail]

I don't think IHMJ understands that nobody here is committing to AAPL for 30+ years. There is money to be made RIGHT NOW, and that's what people are investing in. Just because you don't believe in trading doesn't mean there is no place for taking advantage of a short term situation.

There are lots of people who are value investors like you, and a lot of them lost a shitload of money the past few years so that's not a sure thing either. The history of the stock market is not very long......nothing is a sure thing anymore.

Some people don't have as long of a time frame as you, so really you are out of line. You should slap yourself for comparing AAPL to calculators.

What the hell are you on about? Do you even know what you're saying?