***Official*** 2012 Stock Market Thread

[KB]

Are you day trading?

My question was more targeted to those who buy-and-hold investment stocks. I've got about 20K in cash that is sitting in a savings account. This money has no purpose except savings/investment, and I have plenty accessible in emergency funds. My goal is to wisely choose 1) the right moment to enter the market and 2) which stocks will have some solid long term gains.

It's #1 I'm most concerned with right now, because it feels like this market is in a bubble of overstated economic confidence.

The problem with the market is that you never really know what the market will do. Its possible we could go to 15,000 before we get another downturn or we could start a big downturn tomorrow. There never seems to be a good time to enter the market. The signs pointing to a downtrend include high oil prices and recession in Europe. The signs for an uptrend include jobs and high optimism.

One thing you might consider doing is to put half in now and then wait till July/August to put the remaining half in. This way you get decent returns if the market raises and smaller losses if it falls, with the option of buying in lower.

Another option is to find stocks that haven't yet seen as much increase during the rally. For example, some of the telecomm and utilities haven't grown as fast as the broader market has.

 

[Arachnotronic]

Are you day trading?

My question was more targeted to those who buy-and-hold investment stocks. I've got about 20K in cash that is sitting in a savings account. This money has no purpose except savings/investment, and I have plenty accessible in emergency funds. My goal is to wisely choose 1) the right moment to enter the market and 2) which stocks will have some solid long term gains.

It's #1 I'm most concerned with right now, because it feels like this market is in a bubble of overstated economic confidence.

I'm not day trading I've been holding for a while now and it's been a steady, very painful, decline over the last 5 days, wiping out any gains I had previously and cutting right into my principal.

 

[The-Noid]

Very interesting day...

 

[JEDI]

S&P downgrades Greece even more:
http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/27/markets/greece_standard_poors_selective_default/?hpt=hp_t3

Standard & Poor's downgraded Greece's credit rating Monday to "selective default" after the government took legal steps to impose losses on all holders of Greek government bonds.


blood bath tommorow?



edit:
Greek bondholders must decide on the offer by March 12 in order for Greece to secure the bailout money it needs to make a €14.5 billion bond payment on March 20.


WHAT?! the bailout *still* isnt finalized?!

 

[Imp]

The "selective default" thing has been talked about for weeks, if not months. Having to take that haircut ("voluntarilly") made it a "default", so if anyone's surprised...

I'm going to assume another today: down 100 points at open, close at break even. Seriously? Today and Monday, the Dow only dropped less than 2 points: 1.70 Friday and 1.44 today. WTF?

If it doesn't crash tomorrow, I'm ploughing 25% into a supermarket with a 2.5%-ish dividend that's already taken a 10% panic-unload.

 

[Imp]

Eff... Just noticed that BAC went up over 5% intraday from open.

 

[apac]

I'm not day trading I've been holding for a while now and it's been a steady, very painful, decline over the last 5 days, wiping out any gains I had previously and cutting right into my principal.

Er, a few pages ago you said you had been holding for 3 weeks and talking about single digit gains/losses. It might not be day trading, but it's not what I'm going for either.

 

[KB]

Anyone going to play BP on the trial/settlement? If they settle and its not outragous I see some people getting back into the stock and some analyst upgrades. BP was at 60 before the disater and oil wasn't this high at that time.

 

[Imp]

Wow, closed over 13,000 for the first time in a while...

So not going in now on the US side.

 

[Noirish]

the real question is, what will happen after all 3 indexes cross psychological milestones?

 

[manly]

Are you day trading?

My question was more targeted to those who buy-and-hold investment stocks. I've got about 20K in cash that is sitting in a savings account. This money has no purpose except savings/investment, and I have plenty accessible in emergency funds. My goal is to wisely choose 1) the right moment to enter the market and 2) which stocks will have some solid long term gains.

It's #1 I'm most concerned with right now, because it feels like this market is in a bubble of overstated economic confidence.

Stock valuations now versus last April

According to the article, the S&P 500 P/E is currently just above 15, right around the historical average. So the overall market is about "fairly valued". While I personally believe the latest rally is "too far, too fast" I'm terrible at market timing.

Unless you're planning on throwing the entire $20k into an index fund, your concern #2 is much more important than #1.

 

[Muse]

The problem with the market is that you never really know what the market will do. Its possible we could go to 15,000 before we get another downturn or we could start a big downturn tomorrow. There never seems to be a good time to enter the market. The signs pointing to a downtrend include high oil prices and recession in Europe. The signs for an uptrend include jobs and high optimism.

It's not true. There are times when the market is more likely to advance than others. Such things are determined by technical analysis, which assumes that the influencing goings-on in the world are factored into the price and volume action you see in the market -- it's stocks and indexes. We have been in an uptrend since at least mid-December. There will probably be at least a hesitation soon, but maybe not so much as a correction before a resumption of the uptrend. Then again, we could see a correction or even a bear market. The adage to live by is "a trend is a trend until it isn't." Another good one is "the most likely next trend is the one adjacent to the current trend." IOW, if we're in an uptrend, the next trend is most likely to be a sideways trend. From the sideways trend, we could go either of two ways, up or down. Don't get too confident that you know which way things are going to go. Another good adage is "the market likes to surprise."

 

[Imp]

It's not true. There are times when the market is more likely to advance than others. Such things are determined by technical analysis, which assumes that the influencing goings-on in the world are factored into the price and volume action you see in the market -- it's stocks and indexes. We have been in an uptrend since at least mid-December.

Most of the reading I've done says it's actually been going up since mid to late November. There was a big crash back down late November or December that I remember playing. That's when I finally turned positive again. So, month 4 of rally begins now-ish... I got my money on another 100-200 points on the Dow before a pullback to mid/upper 11,000.

 

[endervalentine]

Most of the reading I've done says it's actually been going up since mid to late November. There was a big crash back down late November or December that I remember playing. That's when I finally turned positive again. So, month 4 of rally begins now-ish... I got my money on another 100-200 points on the Dow before a pullback to mid/upper 11,000.

You really think it dip back down to 11,000 in the new few months?

 

[Arachnotronic]

Seriously folks, just buy AAPL. It's...the borg of stocks.

 

[Pliablemoose]

Seriously folks, just buy AAPL. It's...the borg of stocks.

There's a group of people I work with that have APPL, we just grin at each other when we pass in the hallway...

 

[Imp]

You really think it dip back down to 11,000 in the new few months?

Woops, mid-late 12k. Forgot we're at 13k now.

 

[Imp]

To those interested in RIMM. Good luck:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...get-on-earnings-sales-worries/article2355064/

 

[Schfifty Five]

Seriously folks, just buy AAPL. It's...the borg of stocks.

I did. Avg share price is $350.

Back then I was hesitant to buy more in the upper 300's and low 400's. Now it looks like a friggin steal.

 

[PimpJuice]

To those interested in RIMM. Good luck:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...get-on-earnings-sales-worries/article2355064/

IHateMyJob - But but Prem Watsa bought it, and its cheaper than book value and they have no debt! You probably don't even know about HTML5. Trust me, I researched it for 3 hours.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I'm aware of what is going on with RIMM. And I am not that worried at all. I love news like this, I can add to my position. genreating billions in FCF (normalized to $2B+ FCF annually.... adjusting for that one time Playbook write off), check. no debt+billions in short term assets, check. Making some good moves looking forward, check. $7B market cap, check.

And I accept that there is a chance that it might not work out. I just don't see it that way. In other countries, people talk about how they want a Blackberry like how people in the US want an iPhone.

Listen, I don't care. Things have changed greatly in the past 6 months. And they are going to change even more in the next 12.

My research ... read, read, read ... yours ... some analysts said so. Yawn.

You worship some guy named Peter Misek. I worship a guy names Prem Watsa. Boy, do I feel stupid.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Signs of a dieing company:
"The only things that has significantly increased is subscriber base numbers, up to about 75 million, and hardware and tablet sales." - RIMM

Funny what happens when people ignore things like facts. Reduced market share means that as a percentage of new phones sold, RIM is selling less RELATIVE to others. That doesn't mean their sales are dropping. Facts ... stupid facts.

 

[Imp]

Signs of a dieing company:
"The only things that has significantly increased is subscriber base numbers, up to about 75 million, and hardware and tablet sales." - RIMM

Funny what happens when people ignore things like facts. Reduced market share means that as a percentage of new phones sold, RIM is selling less RELATIVE to others. That doesn't mean their sales are dropping. Facts ... stupid facts.

The problem, I think, with RIM right now is that it's been blacklisted. There is a very wide perception that it will go bankrupt, and once they actually come out with an explosive new product and/or see encouraging sails growth, they'll be back up... If it happens...

 

[Hugo Drax]

I'm aware of what is going on with RIMM. And I am not that worried at all. I love news like this, I can add to my position. genreating billions in FCF (normalized to $2B+ FCF annually.... adjusting for that one time Playbook write off), check. no debt+billions in short term assets, check. Making some good moves looking forward, check. $7B market cap, check.

And I accept that there is a chance that it might not work out. I just don't see it that way. In other countries, people talk about how they want a Blackberry like how people in the US want an iPhone.

Listen, I don't care. Things have changed greatly in the past 6 months. And they are going to change even more in the next 12.

My research ... read, read, read ... yours ... some analysts said so. Yawn.

You worship some guy named Peter Misek. I worship a guy names Prem Watsa. Boy, do I feel stupid.

Losers average losers.

 

[zimu]

The problem, I think, with RIM right now is that it's been blacklisted. There is a very wide perception that it will go bankrupt, and once they actually come out with an explosive new product and/or see encouraging sails growth, they'll be back up... If it happens...

i'm one of those with little faith in rim. I own a bunch of shares I bought some time ago that have dropped 80% of their value since, but at this point i'm just calling it a lost cause and leaving them in my portfolio.

That being said, apple was at $3 once upon a time and considered a lost cause.