***Official*** 2012 Stock Market Thread

[JTsyo]

Holy shit. This is bloodshed.

Amazon holding out like a champ :thumbsup: the only green on the ones I track.

 

[Kwatt]

Amazon holding out like a champ :thumbsup: the only green on the ones I track.

SO,WEC, KMB + MCD are my only green ones.



.

 

[darkxshade]

ZOMG, everybody jump ship!!!

 

[Arachnotronic]

I thought you were an AMD bull?

Oh, long term, absolutely. But it's volatile: when semis go up, it goes up a LOT. When semis get hit, it gets hit bad.

I saw the semis about to get hit bad, so I shorted it. I plan on reinstating a long position soon, though.

 

[darkxshade]

Todays correction look to have staying power, I wonder how tomorrow will fare.

 

[Imp]

Todays correction look to have staying power, I wonder how tomorrow will fare.

If it's anything like last year, we'll get a bunch of these big drops, then a few big rallies, but get a slow downard trend. Then some bomb will drop (e.g. Israel, Greece, etc.) and kaboom.

Lot of money to be made if anyone's got the balls to chuck money into these major pullbacks, then sell within a day or two.

Edit: Yaaaaaaaaaaaaa.... my grocery store actually went back up to near par after the opening dip.

All my other horses (watch list, no money committed) are worse.

 

[apac]

The problem with the market is that you never really know what the market will do. Its possible we could go to 15,000 before we get another downturn or we could start a big downturn tomorrow. There never seems to be a good time to enter the market. The signs pointing to a downtrend include high oil prices and recession in Europe. The signs for an uptrend include jobs and high optimism.

One thing you might consider doing is to put half in now and then wait till July/August to put the remaining half in. This way you get decent returns if the market raises and smaller losses if it falls, with the option of buying in lower.

Another option is to find stocks that haven't yet seen as much increase during the rally. For example, some of the telecomm and utilities haven't grown as fast as the broader market has.

Stock valuations now versus last April

According to the article, the S&P 500 P/E is currently just above 15, right around the historical average. So the overall market is about "fairly valued". While I personally believe the latest rally is "too far, too fast" I'm terrible at market timing.

Unless you're planning on throwing the entire $20k into an index fund, your concern #2 is much more important than #1.

I wanted to thank you guys for this advice. It got me to think about the market a little differently. My only experience in the past had been with mutual funds and company stock in CSCO, and all of those tend to follow the averages pretty closely.

I did end up investing about $11K in the last week. Today I was surprised to see that, although the dow tanked 200 points, my portfolio was actually up a fraction of a percent. Granted it was just one day, but I'd never seen that before with my conservative investments. It seems that manly was right - picking the right stocks is a lot more important than the timing.

edit: This is a great learning experience too. I feel like 6 months from now I'll understand a whole lot more about how businesses operate than I do now.

 

[zimu]

... and here's the bounceback.

 

[The-Noid]

... and here's the bounceback.

And there goes the bounceback.

Buy the dip is now fade the rip...

 

[Arachnotronic]

Bought a whole bunch of AMAT when it dipped to $11.97/share. Looks like it may have been a good move. The dividend increase + share buybacks tell me that it's just oversold because all semis went to hell the last few days and that the stock itself is good. Time will tell...

 

[Imp]

I've waited 2 months, I can wait another to see if it drops further... None of my usual buys are still at/near/making new 52-week highs.

 

[apac]

Pandora just got crushed. Down 24% today.

 

[zimu]

And there goes the bounceback.

Buy the dip is now fade the rip...

still looking quite bounce backy to me!

 

[Arachnotronic]

Anybody playing the GMCR sell-off?

 

[Imp]

Plain no-thank you still... Upside looks to be 1-5%, downside is well over 20%.

Numbers are out of my ass, but last time I didn't listen to myself, I lost over 10% in gains (not paper, I sold all that shit and banked it, then bought new stuff), and had to claw my way back to par.

 

[JEDI]

Why isnt Dryships (DRYS) going up w/the rest of the market today?
plus THe latest round of Greek bailout is complete. Private bond holders approved.

 

[zimu]

What do you guys make of Pandora (P?)


Had a big dip few days ago but appears to be on its way back to recovering to it's previous value. Jumped 7% on Friday.

 

[Arachnotronic]

Neat trading day...

 

[Pliablemoose]

New 52 week high for Apple, all the first batch of gen III iPad pre orders sold out, now people are starting to line up for the ones in the stores.

Rumors suggest a million will be sold on launch day

 

[KB]

Its a good day so far. Carnival is up nicely; hopefully it turns around now and makes its way back up to what it was last spring. The markets have had difficulty staying over 13,000, but they are slowly moving forward. I think gas prices are really the only big short term concern right now.

Its times like these I am glad I have some dividend payers so that I am still making money even if the market can't get past 13,000. My dividend payers are EXC, NYX, CCL and I added a small position in KFN.

 

[Imp]

Greece bullshit still an issue, especially now that they've set a precedent, and other EU countries may ask for similar treatment (i.e. debt write-offs). China is slowing down, EU in recession.

Dow's been trading in the upper 12k range for weeks now. Major resistance at 13k. Still only half-in.

 

[mshan]

Haven't been following markets closely recently, but just turned on CNBC and got to ask, are we breaking out to upside? (e. g. yield on 10 year has broken above 2.05%*, which I think some talking head on CNBC previously said was top of current trading range)

Would be interesting to know what institutional money flows are like (e. g. is The Great Rotation out of bonds and cash possibly about to happen?)






* Guess this assumes this is not a massive head fake like last November when MF Global publicly imploded a few days after we had what Gary Kautbaum (http://www.tradingmarkets.com/stocks/commentary/the-cuckoo-s-nest-1578737.html) had described as a Europe is solved type breakout rally (IIRC, market seemed to turn over and have a failed break out a few days before news of MF Global became public news):

"We saw things like housing and financials actually put in what looked like good bottoms and then we had E day...on October 27th in which Europe supposedly solved their problems. Technically, it was a strong volume gap above resistance. Fast forward to yesterday. What happens? A rogue Corzine makes leveraged bets...just like the numbskulls did in 08 and kills the company he took over just over a year ago...leading others to ponder whether others are in the same position. We hear again that all may not be well in the big E. Markets give back a ton on Monday and we now walk back into a huge gap to the downside today."

Hopefully trillions of dollars of global central bank liquidity makes this time different, even though it doesn't ultimately solve underlying debt problem, just buys time for politicians and voting populations to get their own fiscal houses in order (Obama / Boehner Grand Bargain, and real reform of out of control inflation in health care and defense spending costs).

 

[crownjules]

Fed announces no rate changes and calls the inflation we're seeing now temporary. Treasury rates are starting to creep up. If the markets sustain today's move, we may see money coming out of bonds back into stocks.

Opened a small position in a bond shorting ETF.

 

[Hugo Drax]

The tape has been flying for about an hour, SPY close to breaking 140 on heavy last hour action.

 

[Ricochet]

ZOMG, everybody jump ship!!!

ZOMG, everybody back onto the bandwagon!!!