I expect it to go much lower.
Their Tegra 3 SoC isn't competitive on the market and they don't have many smartphone design wins. Only 1 product exists and it was released about 2 weeks ago.
Their Tegra 3 SoC for smartphones was only released 2 weeks ago and it will be completely outclassed by Qualcomm's S4 in a mere 2 weeks and Samsung's Exynos two months later or less.
They might as well give up in the smartphone market until their next SoC because their only hope is to compete in tablets.
If they're not careful, they could be the "RIMM" of the smartphone SoC market.
NVIDIA has a solid, solid shot of making it big in the smartphone SoC market if they up the graphics ante on their chips. It's pretty perplexing that their graphics on Tegra is outclassed by a lot of other stuff (including the Apple chips), but I suspect that NV's management team isn't stupid and realizes that this is really their chance at a competitive advantage.
Everyone uses more or less the same stuff on the CPU front in the ARM ecosystem (with QCOM being a notable exception).
Also on the topic of NVDA, does anybody remember when it was $26/share? Was this due to the Project Denver + ARMH hype?
In any case, I'd be a buyer at these levels, and I'd expect a short to medium term hold until it hits $15-$16.