***Official*** 2012 Stock Market Thread

[Arachnotronic]

I hope this is money that you would be okay taking a total loss on.

Not going to happen. This stock will be >$8 by the end of the year.

Their growth rate is insane. At the end of 2010, they took in ~$180M in revenue. End of 2011, $360M, and the low end of their revenue forecast says they'll do $630M in rev.

I don't know about you, but I see a company that wants to win. I see a company that's making all the right moves, that's growing sales, getting major contracts, becoming more vertically integrated, and just performing well.

They're getting crapped all over because they're not "profitable" right now, but that's because they're significantly increasing R&D and OpEx since they're going to be serving a much, much larger client base and are looking to differentiate their tech even further from all of the "me, too" SSD guys.

I'm not usually this convinced about a particular stock -- last time I was, it was AMD @ $5 or so. This is another one of those, but with much, much higher upside potential.

 

[Imp]

So, how many people bought APPL in the $600s?

If you (in general, not you) didn't get suspicious when the price-trend went exponential, you deserve it.

 

[chusteczka]

I hope this is money that you would be okay taking a total loss on.

Of course not. Never will I be agreeable to taking a total loss. This is why I typically invest conservatively (but not always), in companies I am familiar with. I try to maintain the ideal that investing is not gambling if familiar with the company and knowing what will happen next, as much as a normal person is able to.

At this point, I only have 20% of my investable funds in OCZ. I have been without payable work for the past 2.5 years as I am starting a business. My investing right now is partly to pay the bills and keep me working on my new business rather than having to return to paid programming work. The current status of my dwindling funds may have me accepting greater risk than I normally do.

I have successfully invested in mutual funds for the past 20 years and only recently have moved forward with picking my own stocks. I am new to stock trading but not to the market as a whole.

Is there a reason you stated what you did? Have I given an impression of naivety?

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

If you (in general, not you) didn't get suspicious when the price-trend went exponential, you deserve it.

deserve what? Apple is not my kinda stock. I just find it strange that everyone was acting like a perma bull as AAPL went to $600 ... $610 ... $620. Some predicting $700? But no one took a loss?

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Intel,

What stock are you discussing? I looked back a page or two and didn't see what it is.

 

[chusteczka]

Intel,

What stock are you discussing? I looked back a page or two and didn't see what it is.

That is OCZ.

 

[lothar]

Not going to happen. This stock will be >$8 by the end of the year.

Their growth rate is insane. At the end of 2010, they took in ~$180M in revenue. End of 2011, $360M, and the low end of their revenue forecast says they'll do $630M in rev.

I don't know about you, but I see a company that wants to win. I see a company that's making all the right moves, that's growing sales, getting major contracts, becoming more vertically integrated, and just performing well.

They're getting crapped all over because they're not "profitable" right now, but that's because they're significantly increasing R&D and OpEx since they're going to be serving a much, much larger client base and are looking to differentiate their tech even further from all of the "me, too" SSD guys.

I'm not usually this convinced about a particular stock -- last time I was, it was AMD @ $5 or so. This is another one of those, but with much, much higher upside potential.

Marked.

 

[Arachnotronic]

Marked.

Good.

 

[Arachnotronic]

Is there a reason you stated what you did? Have I given an impression of naivety?

The "wise" mantra around here is: "If Intel17 picked it, it's obviously trash"

 

[chusteczka]

The "wise" mantra around here is: "If Intel17 picked it, it's obviously trash"

I was with you on AMD but did not have the available funds for it at the time. IMO, you have been doing well with decisions similar to my own.

And I completely agree with you regarding OCZ and their expected future.

 

[darkxshade]

OCZ is hit hard because they're not profitable... not to mention they keep diluting shares with secondaries but I think they're done with that. Their quality and customer service leaves much to be desired. That said, everyone knows who OCZ is now and they have the potential for a big payoff because they have sacrificed profitability for aggressive growth and has a good foothold on the SSD market. They've ditched sandforce and improving. Their market cap is a miniscule 1/3 billion, a cheap buy and acquisition target for any one of the large HDD manufacturers[but they won't let that happen - poison pill]. I've put about 15k into OCZ from as high as ~$8 to as low as ~$5. If they manage an oem contract of some sort say with Dell, that thing will explode[their short interest is excessively high too which works out for longs if it does pop]. On the flipside, they may very well take some more hits before things get better what with the SSD price wars but they seem to have the upper hand. It's like every week you have a slickdeal front page deal on an OCZ drive. And yes, I use slickdeals to see how they're trending.

 

[darkxshade]

Post #1337 yeah!

 

[chusteczka]

Post #1337 yeah!

OCZ's lack of profit does not bother me when their sales are increasing, they are rapidly acquiring assets to grow their company in an intelligent manner, and they appear to be behaving with integrity.

I know from building my own business that it takes much time, effort, and money to properly build a reliable and marketable product in an intelligent and sustainable manner. If I was running OCZ, I hope that I would be making decisions similar to the decisions they appear to be making. Because of this, I am impressed with them and believe they will do well.

RIMM intrigues me in a similar manner because they also acquired an asset and are taking the time to properly build their product. Those who rush solid development for a quick fix are foolish, as I often told my managers when they would try to push me to fast.

There is a saying that "there is never time to do it right but there is always time to fix it later". I prefer to work in a manner where the project is completed properly the first time and does not need to be returned to later for fixing. A company that takes the time to properly build its product is one I can believe in.

 

[Arachnotronic]

Amen, brother. I have a limit for a few hundred more OCZ @ $4.98.

 

[KB]

Looks like the adage of sell in May and go away is taking place again. The last three Mays we have experienced downturns because of Greece. If this continues I will put more money to work around July / August where the usual bottom is.

I am glad I put some money in utilities, which aren't taking anywhere near the beat-down.

 

[rcpratt]

Panic in the morning ending in modest losses seems to be this week's shtick.

Not sure what I'm going to do with ARNA prior to the hearing tomorrow. Should be interesting...

 

[Aharami]

Panic in the morning ending in modest losses seems to be this week's shtick.

Not sure what I'm going to do with ARNA prior to the hearing tomorrow. Should be interesting...

do you have a current position with ARNA? I considered buying 1K shares at today's dip to $3.50, but didn't act. May still buy if it dips down again

interesting article for people speculating on ARNA
http://seekingalpha.com/article/573431-selling-an-fda-approval-recent-results?source=kizur

 

[rcpratt]

do you have a current position with ARNA? I considered buying 1K shares at today's dip to $3.50, but didn't act. May still buy if it dips down again

interesting article for people speculating on ARNA
http://seekingalpha.com/article/573431-selling-an-fda-approval-recent-results?source=kizur

I have ~750 shares @$2.80. If it makes a run up to near $4.00 today or tomorrow morning, I might take some or all of my profits.

 

[Arachnotronic]

Looks like the adage of sell in May and go away is taking place again. The last three Mays we have experienced downturns because of Greece. If this continues I will put more money to work around July / August where the usual bottom is.

I am glad I put some money in utilities, which aren't taking anywhere near the beat-down.

Love utilities. A little over a third of my capital is in a company called AEP. They're doing pretty well for me and that dividend is as good a reason as any to wait until they hit $40+.

Also, OCZ up 5% today

 

[Imp]

deserve what? Apple is not my kinda stock. I just find it strange that everyone was acting like a perma bull as AAPL went to $600 ... $610 ... $620. Some predicting $700? But no one took a loss?

You (again, not actually you) deserve to take a loss if AAPL doesn't recover and you bought at $600+ listening thinking it would go to $800 or $1000 like some "analysts" think. Some genius said $1100, IIRC.

AAPL is more than super profitable and not THAT outrageously valued according to P/E only, but it's still a tech stock and reliant on the consumer market.

Mellowed meltdown continues. Thanks for the buying opportunity.

 

[Arachnotronic]

8% up on OCZ. Wow, I guess chusteczka is going to lose all that capital, eh?

Also, interesting that Fannie Mae was brought up -- it's up 13%.

 

[Connoisseur]

I have ~750 shares @$2.80. If it makes a run up to near $4.00 today or tomorrow morning, I might take some or all of my profits.

Ha we're in almost exactly the same position. I took 1k at around $1.99. Really thinking of selling at least half at a profit but I'm feeling greedy...

 

[Arachnotronic]

Ha we're in almost exactly the same position. I took 1k at around $1.99. Really thinking of selling at least half at a profit but I'm feeling greedy...

Don't do it! Don't be greedy! Take the profits!

 

[Aharami]

Ha we're in almost exactly the same position. I took 1k at around $1.99. Really thinking of selling at least half at a profit but I'm feeling greedy...

not sure how accurate this is, but might want to lock in some profits today
https://www.chimeraresearchgroup.com/2012/05/arna-quick-take-on-fda-adcom/

 

[Hugo Drax]

Of course not. Never will I be agreeable to taking a total loss. This is why I typically invest conservatively (but not always), in companies I am familiar with. I try to maintain the ideal that investing is not gambling if familiar with the company and knowing what will happen next, as much as a normal person is able to.

At this point, I only have 20% of my investable funds in OCZ. I have been without payable work for the past 2.5 years as I am starting a business. My investing right now is partly to pay the bills and keep me working on my new business rather than having to return to paid programming work. The current status of my dwindling funds may have me accepting greater risk than I normally do.

I have successfully invested in mutual funds for the past 20 years and only recently have moved forward with picking my own stocks. I am new to stock trading but not to the market as a whole.

Is there a reason you stated what you did? Have I given an impression of naivety?

The fact that you consider putting 20% of your capital into OCZ and consider that a conservative investment is pretty naive.

What exactly is your plan with OCZ (ie entry and exit point, timeline) Is this a long term (5+ year) buy and hold? what is the maximum drawdown you are willing to take on your position before you would liquidate?

Have you taken a look at the OCZ SEC filings? I really suggest you start taking a look at them.

You really should not be speculating on the limited capital available in your portfolio especially if you are unemployed. What if you need liquidity fast for bills or some unexpected event?

Intel17 sounds like a sell side analyst pushing OCZ :biggrin: