***Official*** 2012 Stock Market Thread

[lothar]

The fact that you consider putting 20% of your capital into OCZ and consider that a conservative investment is pretty naive.

What exactly is your plan with OCZ (ie entry and exit point, timeline) Is this a long term (5+ year) buy and hold? what is the maximum drawdown you are willing to take on your position before you would liquidate?

Have you taken a look at the OCZ SEC filings? I really suggest you start taking a look at them.

You really should not be speculating on the limited capital available in your portfolio especially if you are unemployed. What if you need liquidity fast for bills or some unexpected event?

Intel17 sounds like a sell side analyst pushing OCZ :biggrin:

This.

 

[richardycc]

not sure how accurate this is, but might want to lock in some profits today
https://www.chimeraresearchgroup.com/2012/05/arna-quick-take-on-fda-adcom/

just sold ARNA at $3.77 to lock in some profits, I only have 100shares left going into Adcom. I've learned from my past FDA approval plays to not be too greedy and minimize risk. If good news tomorrow, I can still buy premarket Friday, if bad news, it's an instant haircut.

 

[rcpratt]

I think I'm going to hold through this evening. The general trend for ARNA the last few days has been up early, so I'll see if I can capitalize on that. Likely going to sell all but a few hundred prior to Adcom.

 

[Aharami]

when is the ARNA Adcom? Tomorrow after market hrs?

 

[Aharami]

just sold ARNA at $3.77 to lock in some profits, I only have 100shares left going into Adcom. I've learned from my past FDA approval plays to not be too greedy and minimize risk. If good news tomorrow, I can still buy premarket Friday, if bad news, it's an instant haircut.

i read that trading on ARNA will be halted near the Adcom

 

[Arachnotronic]

NVDA is getting slammed every day, but then it recovers nicely to the close. Maybe someone knows something about Friday's earnings?

Still a little unconvinced in NVDA's business model to touch it again -- nearly got fried last earnings.

 

[mshan]

Uber perma-bear Nouriel Roubini's* extended timeline for break-up of the Eurozone: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000089119&play=1


Things will eventually work themselves out counter-argument from this Euro-centric money manager (Pierre LaGrange) at beginning of same CNBC show: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000089122&play=1





* Despite his gloomy outlook for global growth, later in the video clip linked above, Roubini still freely admits he is 70% global equities / 30% cash, with 50% of his total equity position being in U. S. stock market indices. I assume he is a Random Walk Down Wall Street type of investor and is focusing on strategic asset allocation for the long-term (?)

 

[Arachnotronic]

I'm keeping 30% in cash, just in case a repeat of last summer occurs. That was a buying opportunity!

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

ABH keeps going down. Prem added a little more last month.

I added a little more today.

 

[Arachnotronic]

Any thoughts on ARMH's steep decline over the last month?

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

ARMH...

Generates about $300 million a year in FCF.

debt free which is nice. Total equity is $1.7B. Market cap is $11.5B.

I'll be nice and adjust that market cap does to $9.8B. So, we are left with a FCF yield of 3%. I'd rather be invested in TIPS.

FWIW:
Here is boring and gaurenteed to grow atleast slowly JNJ. FCF of about $13B. Market cap of $177B. A FCF yield of 7.3%.

Also:
I'd take RIMM over ARMH any day. No debt and the market cap is about equal to current assets. While being FCF positve. You are basically buying the current assets and being given FCF for free.

 

[chusteczka]

The fact that you consider putting 20% of your capital into OCZ and consider that a conservative investment is pretty naive.

What exactly is your plan with OCZ (ie entry and exit point, timeline) Is this a long term (5+ year) buy and hold? what is the maximum drawdown you are willing to take on your position before you would liquidate?

Have you taken a look at the OCZ SEC filings? I really suggest you start taking a look at them.

You really should not be speculating on the limited capital available in your portfolio especially if you are unemployed. What if you need liquidity fast for bills or some unexpected event?

Intel17 sounds like a sell side analyst pushing OCZ :biggrin:

This is going to be difficult to explain, and a bit wordy. I apologize for this.

<snip>


Summary:

• Long term investing is in my business, not the stock market.
• At this point, the stock market is a short term play to obtain money to pay my expenses for as long as possible.

EDIT:
I suppose the quick and easy way to say this is that my investing goals are different from the standard due to my unique situation. I am not looking for long term investments, just enough to pay the bills each month so I can continue developing the products for my business without having to return to paid work.

The excess drama was unnecessary. It can be difficult for me to step back and look at my position from a broader perspective.

 

[rcpratt]

ARNA trading halted already. Guess I'm in for the ride.

Live blog for those still interested.

 

[richardycc]

ARNA trading halted already. Guess I'm in for the ride.

Live blog for those still interested.

maybe they will get the nod now that I have very little into the stock...some higher up just doesn't want me to get rich, guess I will have to make money the good old fashioned way.

 

[Connoisseur]

maybe they will get the nod now that I have very little into the stock...some higher up just doesn't want me to get rich, guess I will have to make money the good old fashioned way.

That would be nice It would partially compensate for pretty much all my other stocks currently in the crapper.

 

[rcpratt]

Feeling pretty confident about the Adcom vote so far. Following the live blog, most things seem to be going as expected or very much in ARNA's favor. No surprises yet...

 

[Connoisseur]

Feeling pretty confident about the Adcom vote so far. Following the live blog, most things seem to be going as expected or very much in ARNA's favor. No surprises yet...

Ehh it's a crapshoot till the very end. VVUS looked like it was going to fail spectacularly during the panel but then got overwhelming approval. This could run the opposite. Some of the scrutiny reeks of the panel asking ARNA to do more testing...

 

[Connoisseur]

If the dude with the blog is to be believed, ARNA got the thumbs up from the panel... SOO good things? If it's true, i'm no longer kicking myself for forgetting to sell half my 1000 shares beforehand to take profit. If it's false, i'm a sad panda.

 

[Aharami]

hope it gets approved!

 

[Connoisseur]

hope it gets approved!

it's official. Got approved. Business Week reported it. Now I wish I had more shares The greed is strong in this one...

::EDIT:: to clarify, it got approved by the panel. Final FDA approval probably won't be for a few more months. But we should still see a nice pop in the price.

 

[RbSX]

Uber perma-bear Nouriel Roubini's* extended timeline for break-up of the Eurozone: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000089119&play=1


Things will eventually work themselves out counter-argument from this Euro-centric money manager (Pierre LaGrange) at beginning of same CNBC show: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000089122&play=1





* Despite his gloomy outlook for global growth, later in the video clip linked above, Roubini still freely admits he is 70% global equities / 30% cash, with 50% of his total equity position being in U. S. stock market indices. I assume he is a Random Walk Down Wall Street type of investor and is focusing on strategic asset allocation for the long-term (?)

Fuck your posts are annoying, the fact that your quote Roubini, makes it even more annoying.

I don't need a god damned business news update through this thread, if I wanted that I'd go to seekingalpha.com

 

[Aharami]

sweet! nice little profit for you. Should've bought in when you first mentioned it 2 days ago. ARNA blew up on twitter yesterday but I was still a bit skeptical because after reading few of the papers, the drug didn't seem all that effective. So I only bought 200 shares at $3.65.

That's the thing with trading....even when you make money, you aren't happy.

 

[Connoisseur]

sweet! nice little profit for you. Should've bought in when you first mentioned it 2 days ago. ARNA blew up on twitter yesterday but I was still a bit skeptical because after reading few of the papers, the drug didn't seem all that effective. So I only bought 200 shares at $3.65.

That's the thing with trading....even when you make money, you aren't happy.

Yeah I think a lot of people thought it wasn't going to get passed simply because of lack of efficacy. Qnexa seems a lot more effective but I'm assuming they still passed Lorcaserin because obesity is such a "massive" epidemic (pun intended). Who knows? I'm hopefully never going to need it and I just want some money.

 

[rcpratt]

Hell yes. Fatties finally came thru for me

Interested to see whether they open it up after-hours and where it'll pop to. Going to get out pretty soon.

 

[Connoisseur]

Hell yes. Fatties finally came thru for me

Interested to see whether they open it up after-hours and where it'll pop to. Going to get out pretty soon.

Yeah now I want to see how much it goes up. In my completely professional opinion (i.e. completely out of my ass opinion), i think it'll double up somewhere in the 6-8 range.

That reminds me, can someone on this thread explain after hours trading? How can I participate in it and, in these situations, can I procure more stocks at around the same price as closing before the pop?