If price and volume are truth (look at 1 year chart and compare bottoms in price from last fall, last winter, and post-LTRO to now):
Societe Generale: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...n;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
Credit Agricole: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...n;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
BNP Paribas: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...n;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
Unicredit: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...n;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
Commerzbank: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...n;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
Morgan Stanley: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...n;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
I'm no financial pro, so I can't dig into their books and tell you what exactly their hidden liabilities and potential liabilities are if things start to cascade, but a retail muppet like me can still easily remember which stocks were always popping up on CNBC and plunging the most when there was real fear in the market last fall and winter (seems to me that most of this sell-off felt rational and fundamentally justified until recently, but feels like we may be getting whiffs of real fear possibly starting to creep into markets now).
The chatter about a run on Greek banks possibly spreading to Spanish banks is a talking point Art Cashin was pushing on CNBC as to why we are having some of the fear / current downturn in market right now, not a daisy chain of financial contagion that is going to pull the whole system down in some Armageddon scenario argument right now.
Sigh, welcome to 6 months ago. You do not need to tear open their books to see the problems.. Santander and other banks in Spain are in a lot of trouble, all it takes is a look at Spains real estate market, unemployment (20+% for quite a while now) and to those who watched the German vs. Spanish bond spreads and the fact that Spain 10 year bills were selling at 6%+ a few months ago could tell you Spain is fucked.
That being said, correlation is not necessarily causation. Both Greece and Spains problems are largely caused by the same thing, Greece did not cause Spains problems, so it isnt contagion necessarily, that is a misnomber.
Contagion is not a series of dominos in this case, its each indepdent country mismanaging their own finances, in part due to an overvalued currency in relation to their domestic economies (mostly thanks to Germany).
Gahhhhhhhhhh. It is worth bearing in mind these stocks dont pop because of market rationale, a lot of them see short term pops because the ECB is injecting cash into them... your conclusions are not necessarily wrong, they are just based on erroneous suppositions, flawed reasoning, and an incomplete picture.. and your posts piss me off because you come off as a know it all because you just regurgitate main stream media.
Last edited: