***Official*** 2012 Stock Market Thread

[RbSX]

If price and volume are truth (look at 1 year chart and compare bottoms in price from last fall, last winter, and post-LTRO to now):


Societe Generale: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...n;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Credit Agricole: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...n;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

BNP Paribas: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...n;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Unicredit: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...n;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Commerzbank: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...n;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Morgan Stanley: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...n;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;



I'm no financial pro, so I can't dig into their books and tell you what exactly their hidden liabilities and potential liabilities are if things start to cascade, but a retail muppet like me can still easily remember which stocks were always popping up on CNBC and plunging the most when there was real fear in the market last fall and winter (seems to me that most of this sell-off felt rational and fundamentally justified until recently, but feels like we may be getting whiffs of real fear possibly starting to creep into markets now).

The chatter about a run on Greek banks possibly spreading to Spanish banks is a talking point Art Cashin was pushing on CNBC as to why we are having some of the fear / current downturn in market right now, not a daisy chain of financial contagion that is going to pull the whole system down in some Armageddon scenario argument right now.

Sigh, welcome to 6 months ago. You do not need to tear open their books to see the problems.. Santander and other banks in Spain are in a lot of trouble, all it takes is a look at Spains real estate market, unemployment (20+% for quite a while now) and to those who watched the German vs. Spanish bond spreads and the fact that Spain 10 year bills were selling at 6%+ a few months ago could tell you Spain is fucked.

That being said, correlation is not necessarily causation. Both Greece and Spains problems are largely caused by the same thing, Greece did not cause Spains problems, so it isnt contagion necessarily, that is a misnomber.

Contagion is not a series of dominos in this case, its each indepdent country mismanaging their own finances, in part due to an overvalued currency in relation to their domestic economies (mostly thanks to Germany).

Gahhhhhhhhhh. It is worth bearing in mind these stocks dont pop because of market rationale, a lot of them see short term pops because the ECB is injecting cash into them... your conclusions are not necessarily wrong, they are just based on erroneous suppositions, flawed reasoning, and an incomplete picture.. and your posts piss me off because you come off as a know it all because you just regurgitate main stream media.

 

[lothar]

His posts are just so fucking stupid, if I wanted to read and listen to regurgitated shit from business news channels, I would just go turn them on on my TV.

Also, he keeps on posting stuff that anyone with half a brain and paid any attention to, knew weeks ago, and half of the time he uses convoluted bullshit logic to draw his conclusions.. the other half of the time, he asks and answers his own questions within the same posts.

For fucks sakes, his conclusions about contagion are all wrong too, the banks in the most trouble aside from the obvious (Irish, Portuguese, Greek and Italian - but in most cases this is not contagion because they loaned money to their domestic federal governments)... banks which are fearing contagion are the French banks (in particular SG) which are holding TONS of toxic debt and are having a hard time maintaining liquidity. You have to start looking at this situation was the Eurozone being fucked one way or the other, and we have to start looking at the macro picture e.g. how this will affect Japan, China, the United States, Canada, Australia and others.

His post is certainly better than most people here that are just coming up with new stock suggestions almost every day of the week to see what shit sticks on the wall.

If I wanted to listen to some people's stock recommendations here, I'd rather just watch Jim Cramer instead.

mshan's posts add more value to this thread than those type of posters.

 

[rcpratt]

Maybe we should have two different threads so that we can separate the elitists and those of us that just want to casually talk stocks.

 

[Arachnotronic]

Going to dump AMD today. 16% loss, but I don't see a recovery for it for a while, esp. given Greece's troubles.

Basically all the gains I had on AMD by the end of Q1 are history. Netted like...$50.

 

[jessieqwert]

Man, some bargains out there!

I have a few stocks that are splits or offshoots that are worth next to nothing. Anyway to get rid of these without paying the trade fee?

 

[chusteczka]

Maybe we should have two different threads so that we can separate the elitists and those of us that just want to casually talk stocks.

The "elitists" do not communicate their thoughts, actions, or intentions. Your second thread would be empty of any content. Maybe you could share your thoughts here, provide something for the amateurs (like myself) to learn from, and increase the intellectual tone of the thread.

 

[rcpratt]

The "elitists" do not communicate their thoughts, actions, or intentions. Your second thread would be empty of any content. Maybe you could share your thoughts here, provide something for the amateurs (like myself) to learn from, and increase the intellectual tone of the thread.

I think you misunderstood, I consider myself part of the latter group.

 

[Arachnotronic]

Out of AMD @ $6.29, took the loss and moving on.

 

[Imp]

If I wanted to listen to some people's stock recommendations here, I'd rather just watch Jim Cramer instead.

Thank goodness I don't listen to anyone's stock suggestions and come here more or less for fun.

 

[rcpratt]

Personally, I enjoy hearing about opportunities that others are interested in so that I can learn more about them and evaluate for myself. But apparently that's "throwing crap against the wall to see what sticks," so who knows.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Roth ira had cash in it. Put the cash I had into usg @14.32

This is exciting. So happy to be sitting on a cash horde. Going to make some money when the dust all settles.

Abh near 10. Sd near 6.

Alot of good stuff out there that is getting cheaper and cheaper. Maybe retired folk will panic like in 2007 forcing mutual funds to sell blindly?

RIMM which is priced for failure is up 3% though ;-)

 

[Imp]

RIMM which is priced for failure is up 3% though ;-)

It's been doing the up 10%, down 10%, up 10%, earnings, down 15%, up 10%, down, etc. for about a year now.

I don't expect any major and sustained movement until BB10 comes out and sales figures are available.

 

[Hugo Drax]

roth ira had cash in it. Put the cash i had into usg @14.32

this is exciting. So happy to be sitting on a cash horde. Going to make some money when the dust all settles.

Abh near 10. Sd near 6.

Alot of good stuff out there that is getting cheaper and cheaper. Maybe retired folk will panic like in 2007 forcing mutual funds to sell blindly?

Rimm which is priced for failure is up 3% though ;-)

qqq +10.34 ytd
rimm -21.51 ytd

 

[Hugo Drax]

When OCZ started trading in April 2010, it was a DRAM company with very limited SSD presence. Their revenues for that fiscal year were about $150M. They've cut away from consumer/enthusiast DRAM and have become a very serious SSD manufacturer. At first, they were just another commodity SSD maker, but they're aggressively growing. Indilinx acquisition allows them to develop controller platforms in-house, improving gross margins on the consumer drives (and if you look at the #'s, gross margin has been improving significantly each quarter). Further, they're pushing aggressively on the enterprise side, where the margins are better. Their stock hit an all-time low of $1.88 about 2 years ago.

I can't guarantee anything about OCZ's future, but to me it looks like their management is doing all the right things. They're a much stronger company than when they hit $1.88, and they are sure as hell a stronger company than they were when they hit $10.94 last summer. That's why I have my $ in their stock.

The concerns I have with OCZ is the expenses, even though they are making revenues, they have high costs and even posted a loss this quarter.

The issue with the SSD market is it is a commodity market with narrow margins, and even though OCZ bought indilinx, they have yet to use an actual in house controller.

Even the Vertex 4 is using a Marvell controller.

They also seem to love to issue additional shares which is very dilutive for existing common shareholder. Also I see a lot of insiders selling on the open market.

Anyhow good luck with your long OCZ position but I do not think such a position will provide safety of principal or outperformance of the S&P 500 or the nasdaq QQQ ETF over the next 12-24 months.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

qqq +10.34 ytd
rimm -21.51 ytd

Hrmm, so what you are saying is that the QQQ needs to go down 11.17 or RIMM needs to go up 11.17. Sounds liek RIMM is a buy.

 

[woodman1999]

I may have missed the discussion, but let's talk FB. Anyone getting in early?

 

[jessieqwert]

limit order at $50

 

[richardycc]

limit order at $50

for a share of FB? That's crazy, I wouldn't pay more than $40.

 

[jessieqwert]

for a share of FB? That's crazy, I wouldn't pay more than $40.

and dump at $60

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

FB, I'd pay $2. Then kick myself in the nuts for buying it.

 

[Ricochet]

I have Scottrade and doesn't look like I can even buy FB.

 

[richardycc]

trading starts at 11am, I think.

 

[rcpratt]

I've got a limit for $43, but it's not something I plan on holding past today. And I don't really expect to get in with that limit anyways.

 

[woodman1999]

Well, I put in my indication of interest on Fidelity for the $38 a share. I think I hope I get.

 

[SunnyD]

Sharebuilder limit order in @ $40. I probably won't get it, but whatever.