"Any thoughts on Siemens AG (symbol SI)? It is near a 52 week low with a 4.66% yield."
(
Disclosure: I don't trade or invest in individual stocks, but all of my net worth, other than the house I live in, is tied up in a diversified portfolio of long-only, buy and hold type type mutual funds, so I feel the pain just like anyone one else if and when the stock market really tanks).
Random Thoughts of a non-financial pro, retail muppet who only watches CNBC and reads stuff on the internet (I started to write this posting before
RBsX chimed into this thread immediately above, so hopefully he has already put me on his Ignore list and doesn't even see this posting. If not, if he just totally ignore it, this posting will probably be long forgotten by most after others have added their own comments about whatever topic they are focused on and this page will be well back from current page of thread).
- Jim Cramer recently had an opening rant on Mad Money ("Fulcrum Point" titled episode) that we were at a fulcrum point, where Dow could plunge 1000 points, or rally 1000 points, we just don't know yet (edit: found the video of that opening monologue to Mad Money. It was from last Thursday, May 17, and correct term was "Fulcrum Moment":
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000090803&play=1)
- I think I remember some talking head on CNBC this morning (I want to see it was Art Cashin, but I looked through his video clips on CNBC website this morning and don't find the comments) about similarities of current market to the run up to the 1987 stock market crash (which I believe ultimately ended up being a great buying opportunity if you were able to play the rebound well).
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A Cloudy Crystal Ball - Since this is the last Comments until after Memorial Day, a blurry look ahead may be in order. The battle for Greece (and Spain) will be fought daily at the ATMs of their banks. A full-blown bank run would be an instant crisis. Egyptian elections (Wednesday & Thursday) may move markets. Markets heavily oversold and susceptible to a large, maybe massive, short squeeze. A central bank move in Europe, China or the U.S. could catch shorts flat-footed. That having been said, we have not yet seen capitulation, just thick dark gloom."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/look-inside-art-cashins-crystal-ball
- Then I see Jim O'Neill (Goldman Sachs Asset Management), who is somewhat a perma-bull I think and is always presumably talking Goldman's own book (I've seen him pop up on CNBC over the years, and my personal impression is that he has great gravitas and almost seems free to speak his own opinion, rather than boiler plate talking points of Goldman itself) reaffirming his call for SPX 1500 later this year (
http://www.cnbc.com/id/47502732).
- Also starting to see bulls and bears starting to stake out positions and try and defend them on CNBC, as if the big boys have placed their bets and are starting to duke it out (zero sum game, eat what you kill, someone has to lose for the person on the other side of the trade to win), and trying to tip the market in the direction that favors the trades they have put on or want to put on. Fast Money contributor Guy Adami (always find it hard to interpret his comments because they seem contrarian in a way that is foreign to me, but I think he chooses individual stocks based upon long-term fundamentals, but trades short-term turns based upon technical analysis (?) made a comment in passing today calling for SPX 980 (I think this was more placing a marker so he could say I told you so if that actually were to occur)
- Then see other bulls saying how Bernake perhaps targeting slower than optimal growth to really contain inflation (not doing what Paul Krugman is calling for in terms of aggressive stimulus now) might be setting groundwork for 5 - 10 year buy and hold type bull market somewhere down the road.
- Game Changer to all of the above would obviously be a really substantial breakthrough in terms of policy or politics in the Eurozone, but don't read much about that yet (Germany willing to accept higher inflation than ideal I think is part of the ultimate solution (I previously thought that the ECB cutting interest rates from 1% - 0.5% was also part of solution, in addition to real labor and free market reforms, bank recapitalization, and a devalued Euro, but there was some investment bank note on Zerohedge (lost the link) saying that ECB cutting interest rates wouldn't help):
"The Bundesbank, the most hawkish of central banks, has signalled it would accept higher inflation in Germany as part of an economic rebalancing in the eurozone that would boost the international competitiveness of countries worst-hit by the regions debt crisis.
A future German inflation rate above the eurozone average could be part of a natural adjustment process as crisis-hit countries pulled themselves out of recession, the Bundesbank argued in evidence to German parliamentarians submitted on Wednesday.
It followed comments at the weekend by Wolfgang Schäuble, German finance minister, backing stronger wage increases, which would boost domestic demand benefiting other European countries exporting goods and services to Germany but could drive German inflation rates higher.
Despite the Bundesbanks conciliatory stance on inflation, German policy makers have been among the toughest in insisting that Greece sticks to its agreed reform programme underpinning its bailout in the aftermath of Sundays Greek election in which most voters rejected the plan. Speaking in Brussels, Mr Schäuble said that changing the bailout terms would unleash catastrophic uncertainty in financial markets."
http://seekingalpha.com/article/604201-a-canadian-s-roadmap-for-greek-struggles/
So, all of the above being said, you might want to quantify how long your anticipated holding period is, and whether this is a large core position in your overall net worth, or play money / mad money you basically want to gamble with. If the former, I remember what John Manley (
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?vide...nUGFnZSI6IjEiLCJzeW0iOiIiLCJzZWFyY2giOiIifQ==) said last November when things looked much, much gloomer: there were select opportunities in stock market then, but if you bought now, you might be very, very unhappy in year one or two, but quite possibly very, very happy 3 - 5 years from now.
If you are trying to trade vs. truly invest for the long-term, seems like this market is setting up as very, very dangerous place for anyone who isn't a really, really accomplished and nimble trader with appropriate diversification and risk management in place...