***Official*** 2013 Stock Market Thread

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mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,868
0
71
I kind of think we are having the equivalent of Alan Greenspan's "irrational exuberance" comments (Bernanke taper talk), except market believes Bernanke's comments have teeth.

Month or so ago remember hearing comments about how overextended credit markets were (e. g. David Faber always kept talking about something called covenant light* returning), and other commentator was talking about how much margin and leverage had returned to market.

Seems like easy money, liquidity bubble is trying to be gently deflated by central banks before it gets out of hand, again.

Where it stops and when it ends, who knows, but as long as it stays fairly controlled, I think it is long-term healthy for stock market and economy (as long as rates don't rise too fast and stay there).

* (found this while googling for covenant light)

"Competition is feral at the institutional end of the banking industry, where quantitative easing is creating a flood of cheap money, and in the big banks a recent development has everyone talking: covenant-light lending appears to be making a comeback. Covenant-light loans were a phenomenon of the boom that ushered in the global financial crisis. Bankers who say covenant-light lending is on the rise again say loans that are being proposed now are not as radical as the ones created ahead of the crisis, but say they are watching closely.

Covenants are designed to protect lenders from corporate implosions. They impose financial limits on the borrower, maximum gearing levels, for example, and if they are breached, the lenders can take steps to protect their position.

At the very least, discussions occur: if the lenders are still comfortable, they might amend the covenants, although they often increase the price of the loan to do so. Other times they might demand that the original loan be repaid.

The emergence of covenant-light lending in the boom that preceded the global financial crisis was one of the canaries in the coal mine.

The practice reached its peak in this country in the first half of 2007, when the private equity consortium bidding for Qantas realised that it would not be able to win 100 per cent of the airline's shares.

Without 100 per cent of Qantas the consortium would not have had control of Qantas' balance sheet and cash flow, and could not use them to underpin borrowings.
It went to its bankers and negotiated a new facility worth about $7.5 billion, and the loan was secured in effect on the shares in Qantas it intended to buy. The groups that were willing to advance the money included Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Royal Bank of Scotland and Calyon, and they were in effect offering the syndicate the world's biggest margin loan.

The Qantas bid failed and the money was not used. Within a year, the global crisis had flowered and the northern hemisphere banks were in the middle of the storm.
Bankers say now that US banks and investment banks are leading the revival of covenant-light lending. They are surprised it has returned so quickly, but acknowledge that quantitative easing has created enormous pressure.

The US Federal Reserve is still pumping $US85 billion a month of new quantitative-easing cash into the system, and Japan has now also begun a $US75 billion a month QE program of its own. Cash is flooding through the global financial system, and top-quality corporations are raising money very cheaply as a result.
Most of them are doing so in the international debt markets, and banks are looking for ways to compete. They are lending at lower rates, but according to local bankers, they are also easing the terms, or covenants on loans as well.

Their best guess is that covenant-light lending is back to where it was around the middle of 2006, before the final, frenetic stage of the boom. It is lighter-covenant rather than covenant-free lending, and it is only being offered to top-rated corporations where survival and debt servicing capacity is not in question.

The local bankers wonder, nevertheless, whether the return of covenant-light lending is a sign of QE seeding another unsustainable debt boom, but they still need to work out how to respond: if the trend continues and they don't join it, their share of the institutional lending market will fall."


http://www.theage.com.au/business/c...-felt-again-20130510-2jdje.html#ixzz2WrQaUaOG
 
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Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
Thinking about plowing some more money I have on the sidelines into the market. This is my "reserve" though, so I'm a bit apprehensive. On the other hand, I've seen enough of these stupid corrections to be fairly confident that it'll go right back up within a week or two.
 

darkxshade

Lifer
Mar 31, 2001
13,749
6
81
I don't think this correction will last long though.

What's your definition of long?

Considering we've just entered summer, I suspect this one will last just as long as any correction if not longer. In fact looking back, this almost looks exactly like the one from last summer except last summers correction started in May whereas this one started just now.

Another thing is that the market has run up so much this year with so little actual economic improvement that there's no fundamentals to stand on for which to mount a rally.

Finally, the entire QE thing with the Fed has gotten so ass backwards that economic improvement is actually considered as bad news warranting a selloff. zomg unemployment is going to hit 7% instead of 7.5% by end of year, lets drop the Dow another 1000 cause we can't have our hands in the cookie jar anymore. Like WTF?
 

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,868
0
71
Alot of macroeconomic uncertainty has been removed from market since last summer (presidential election determined, fiscal cliff averted, no sweeping Grand Bargain that really stimulates economy to grow much faster, but some necessary bits and pieces, such as stabilization of debt over next 10 years, appear to be falling into place), we've got Japan's experiment with Abe-nomics, in addition to Federal Reserve's QE3 (which was announced last September, and if I recall correctly, was intended to be a temporary bridge to help bolster economy (and try and bring down unemployment rate faster than it would otherwise naturally occur) until Congress got it's act together and stopped holding back economy, and not as much a financial safety net (like QE1 and QE2) for markets in light of what happened here in 2008 and U. S. debt ceiling game of chicken (some in Congress trying to push economy back into recession so Obama would lose election /Greece / Europe in 2011) and tremendous cost cutting by corporations (http://www.upi.com/Business_News/20...kforce-levels-are-history/UPI-36981371758288/) and share repurchases mean that companies have returned to peak profitability / earnings / earnings per share, despite anemic top line revenue growth:
"What we have come to know as 'the jobless recovery' may be the new post-recession norm, as employers rebuild their workforces from scratch, take more time to vet candidates, and find ways to operate with fewer workers," said Chief Executive Officer John Challenger.

"To put that in perspective ... basically, every one of the 8,030,000 jobs created between August 2003 and January 2008 plus another 700,000 were wiped out," Challenger said.

Challenger, however, said jobs were being added to the economy at a faster pace than in the previous two recessions.

The problem is that the job losses were huge.

"It is just taking longer to rebuild due to the fact that we started in a much deeper hole," Challenger said.
I've seen commentary on tv that fiscal drag of government austerity is 2% of GDP this year, but is supposed to ease to 1% next year. Private sector consumption in first quarter of this year was something like 3.4% (some of that was probably pent up demand and people spending some of the money they had been saving for a while, rather than continued robust real wage growth going forward), but underlying U. S. economy does appear to be on firmer footing now, and might be slowly accelerating, though not to 3% real gdp target Fed might want.

This Morningstar presentation (http://www.morningstar.com/Cover/videoCenter.aspx?id=590496) talks about how auto industry has returned to more normal historic production, oil and shale gas production in U. S. still accelerating, nascent manufacturing renaissance (low natural gas and electricity costs vs. much of world bringing back energy intensive manufacturing to U. S. again) and heavy lifting going forward will be from housing (Ivy Zelman (1 minute mark: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000152733) a few months ago said mortgage rates could go up another 2% (4% to 6%; 6% mortgage would probably correlate with slowly normalized yield on 10 year of ~4% that economy could successfully digest) and home prices appreciate another 20% just to get back to average historic affordability (monthly payment as a percentage of total income). This presumes that consumers don't get truly scared back into feeling that this is going to be 2008, all over again.

Goldman article on Zerohedge about a month ago was discussing what is appropriate PE for the end of economic stagnation they were seeing in U. S.:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-...kes-sp500-target-1750-year-end-sees-2100-2015

http://www.scribd.com/doc/142746699/Goldman-1750-PT-Increase


U. S. stock market might have gotten ahead of itself for now, but 100% jump (from pricing in the end of the world at intra-day low of ~666 (S & P 500) to oh, things aren't as bad as we thought, is not, at least in my opinion, a bubble), vs. overreach for yield that did seem to be happening in credit markets, in particular.

As madman Jim Cramer said a few months ago, U. S. stock market changed from being not as bad as feared (2009 to say fall 2011 / mid - late 2012; e. g. June 2012 Retail sales ostensibly portending double dip recession: http://www.cnbc.com/id/48197346) to until recently (~ fall 2012 (e. g. August BLS http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/201...-report-isnt-as-bad-as-it-looks/?mod=yahoo_hs, which ostensably provided some political cover for Bernake to announce QE3 in September) until say a month or two ago) becoming better than expected, and now more recently just that stock market had run too far too fast (ahead of fundamentals, at least temporarily).






edit: Yra Harris typically has some very good insights, and he sees some potentially unnerving disconnects that may be developing in credit markets: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000176107 Santelli also made an interesting comment yesterday about bond market sentiment perhaps changing from don't fight the Fed (central banks around the world) to trying to profitably challenge them now (presumably because they see potential vulnerability that they can exploit by creating chaos and some sort of temporary panic) as Bernanke tries to more concretely outline his exit plan. I also remember reading a few weeks ago when Japanese market turmoil started that bond yields and inflation expectations there were rising too fast (i. e. they were preceding actual improving economic growth there and making implementing Abe-nomics problematic (I think it was something like that, forgot exactly what was said)
 
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Kwatt

Golden Member
Jan 3, 2000
1,602
12
81
On 06/10/2013 I was only ~10% cash. As of today I am ~70% cash. In both my IRA and reg accounts. I am just nervous about how much longer QE-Infinity can carry the load.

So, I'll stand back for a bit and see how it turns out.

I hope all of you with stronger stomachs do well.


.
 

sm625

Diamond Member
May 6, 2011
8,172
137
106
On 06/10/2013 I was only ~10% cash. As of today I am ~70% cash. In both my IRA and reg accounts. I am just nervous about how much longer QE-Infinity can carry the load.

So, I'll stand back for a bit and see how it turns out.

I hope all of you with stronger stomachs do well.


.

What is disturbing is just how much money the near-cash accounts are losing. Obviously pure cash is gaining since the dollar is rising, but anything that is not pure cash -- even 5 year treasuries have lost 3% in just a few days. It doesnt sound like much but those types of notes see some very high leverage; 3% at 30:1 is enough to completely wipe out some accounts.
 
Sep 29, 2004
18,665
67
91
FBN tanking even more. BBRY doing well today!

People, you really need to research BBRY prior to Friday's earnings report. It is either going to meet expecations (which are rediculously low) or they are going to blow earnigns out of the water. Or somewhere in between. Probably not going to "disappoint".

Things to watch ... how many BB10 devices shipped. "The Street" says 3-4 million". Thing is, most agree that it is going to be 3+ million. If it gets over 4 or even into 5+ million the stock could sky rocket.

Notice I did not mention EPS. That is a garbage metric. I am eagerly awaiting the FCF numbers.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
Crashy crashy... My brain tells me I've seen this happen a few times and I am doing comparatively great this time with only a few % down versus a record 15-20% down. Also, it will go back up.

On the other hand, something else is freaking me out.
 

Nerva

Platinum Member
Jul 26, 2005
2,796
0
0
I'm long ENIRO AB in Sweden. Decent revenue growth driven by mobile/online and media business (advertising via sponsored links, display links, and resell of Google Adwords). Yellowpages and 411 business on decline but still generate some cash flow. Free cash flow yield pretty good 15%+. Hopefully going to 27 SEK.

Downside: mobile advertising cannibalizing online advertising.
 

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,868
0
71
"Crashy crashy... My brain tells me I've seen this happen a few times and I am doing comparatively great this time with only a few % down versus a record 15-20% down. Also, it will go back up.

On the other hand, something else is freaking me out."

PBoC released a statement overnight (http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000178429) about how, if need be, they would support financial institutions that benefit their real economy, while others might or might not be saved on a case by case basis.



Reminds me of what John Allisolm said in 2008 when we were having our own Lehman Moment:
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000060287


(start around 10:15 mark; John Allison, the commentator, was former chairman of BB&T, and most definitely not a fan of Obama). Then reset to around 8:45 mark for Bearn Stearns comments and difference between then and S&L Crisis previously)




Santelli has said that Chinese economy is centrally planned and nothing like this current liquidity freeze happens unless PBoC intended it (last week he said it was unclear initially whether the rise in SHibor was what PBoC wanted, or reflection of strain it's actions had created).

World has had 5 years to delever and derisk (though it does sound like because of cheap easy money there was a lot of re-risking and re-leveraging going on), PBoC doesn't have to answer to populace or it's legislative branch, and George "Nero" Bush isn't at the helm, contently riding his bicycle around White House while the world burns around him and Hank Paulson isn't scheming how to get as much gold from U. S. Treasury to his buddies on Wall Street without people noticing, or at least complaining too much (http://londonbanker.blogspot.com/2008/10/financial-eugenics-paulson-plan-for.html).

That Lehman weekend was yet another weekend crisis (have to create fix before Asian markets open Sunday night) that didn't pan out with some patchwork solution like previous ones, and there was that "erroneous" Margin Call by JP Morgan (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-04/did-us-government-sanction-liquidation-lehman-brothers) that opened the floodgates and may be the "economic Pearl Harbor" Warren Buffet referenced back then.

At this point, seems like current crisis was deliberately manufactured by Chinese to wring out excesses in their own financial system, and perhaps chose to time it when Federal Reserve was signaling change in policy to sort of stick it in eye of U. S. at same time.

This recent Zerohedge article on scarity of quality collateral (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-...n-collateral-or-how-modern-money-really-works) also reminds me of what London Banker wrote a few years ago (http://londonbanker.blogspot.com/2011/05/concentration-manipulation-and-margin.html)




Tin foil hat back on ))
 
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Kwatt

Golden Member
Jan 3, 2000
1,602
12
81
If the rate goes up and you have over 400 Trillion dollars (as Dec. 2012) in exchanged trade derivatives hanging around.... A 1% rate hike you are not expecting will get somebody's attention.

I would like to get 1 % of 400 Trillion for a week or so.


.
 

Kwatt

Golden Member
Jan 3, 2000
1,602
12
81
Put 2-3% back in. GLD, SLV, and UGL. May put another 2-3% in some gold miner stuff soon... pending research.



.
 

makken

Golden Member
Aug 28, 2004
1,476
0
71
FBN tanking even more. BBRY doing well today!

People, you really need to research BBRY prior to Friday's earnings report. It is either going to meet expecations (which are rediculously low) or they are going to blow earnigns out of the water. Or somewhere in between. Probably not going to "disappoint".

Things to watch ... how many BB10 devices shipped. "The Street" says 3-4 million". Thing is, most agree that it is going to be 3+ million. If it gets over 4 or even into 5+ million the stock could sky rocket.

Notice I did not mention EPS. That is a garbage metric. I am eagerly awaiting the FCF numbers.

BBRY missed... down big

ouch

Expecting people to take profit on TSLA today, hoping for it to close below 105 for my covered calls to expire worthless
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106

PimpJuice

Platinum Member
Feb 14, 2005
2,051
1
76
FBN tanking even more. BBRY doing well today!

People, you really need to research BBRY prior to Friday's earnings report. It is either going to meet expecations (which are rediculously low) or they are going to blow earnigns out of the water. Or somewhere in between. Probably not going to "disappoint".

Things to watch ... how many BB10 devices shipped. "The Street" says 3-4 million". Thing is, most agree that it is going to be 3+ million. If it gets over 4 or even into 5+ million the stock could sky rocket.

Notice I did not mention EPS. That is a garbage metric. I am eagerly awaiting the FCF numbers.

Down 27%

It looks like BBRY couldn't even meet their "rediculously low" expectations. I hope nobody bought into your posts and lost money on this turd that you keep pimpin on here.

As much as you've hyped BBRY on here in the past couple of years, I would expect you to double down and buy more shares with all that confidence you seem to have in it.
 

Hugo Drax

Diamond Member
Nov 20, 2011
5,647
47
91
I forgot who was it that went long stock and long calls on BBRY as well and failed to take profits on the long calls. Okay I remember now it was IHateMyJob2004
 

Mermaidman

Diamond Member
Sep 4, 2003
7,987
93
91
I feel your pain, BBRY longs. I was seriously in the red when HPQ hit its 52-wk nadir at 15 or 16.

edit: Just checked and saw that HPQ's 52 week low was 11 to 12! So I was actually worse off than I thought, LOL!
 
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Apr 17, 2003
37,622
0
76
http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=BBRY

http://www.thestar.com/business/201...uarter_net_loss_of_84_million_revenue_up.html

Down 27% currently. "Surprise quarterly loss" versus "market expectation" of profit.

Glad I got rid of this turd at "only" a 10% loss months ago.

The company said its global user base declined by a greater than expected four million to 72 million and said it will stop disclosing the figure in future earnings reports, removing a key metric used for measuring service revenue, said TD Securities’ Scott Penner.

Nice move...
 

goog40

Diamond Member
Mar 16, 2000
4,198
1
0
I wasn't even aware that they were still shipping Playbooks. The wifi model hasn't been updated in two years.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
I wasn't even aware that they were still shipping Playbooks. The wifi model hasn't been updated in two years.

I know they sold so few that they had warehouses full of it, but they had multiple $200 fire sales across multiple months.
 

Attic

Diamond Member
Jan 9, 2010
4,282
2
76
The GDP report should have been a wake up call. To rally off that means the wheels are coming off. Massive distortion in the markets. Consumers are already holding high levels of debt and consumption is down. Indicates the typical solution, load up more debt, is running out of legs.

I gues the logic was QE is good, GDP is way below estimates so we'll continue QE. The reality was that QE is proven to not be working in its intended goals and worse that the FED has no idea what the real economy is doing. Their models are increasingly at odds with reality.

This is setting up like a train wreck.

BBry was a screw job, all the jawboning and misleading characterizations of the business and sales strength of the new phones were clearly deceptive. Don't see any future for that phone. Next earnings I'd expect we fall to sub8 handle. A new phone is massively more popular at release than 6 months down the road, and the phones were unpopular at release, to the point the company is still losing substantial cash each quarter. The reason the ticker got a bid was because while the new phone was the last hope, it looked like it would generate positive returns.
 
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Sep 29, 2004
18,665
67
91
Down 27%

It looks like BBRY couldn't even meet their "ridiculously low" expectations. I hope nobody bought into your posts and lost money on this turd that you keep pimpin on here.

As much as you've hyped BBRY on here in the past couple of years, I would expect you to double down and buy more shares with all that confidence you seem to have in it.

Yup. Trading well below book at this point. Something like 0.8x book. Little risk in buying here. So, yes .... on Monday if BBRY is down a few percent I am buying. My only saving grace was selling off a slice of my holdings Thursday before the close.

I was pissed on Friday so I walked away. When I walked back I started looking at things. I have to finally admit that they might have to be a software only company. But now that they are below book and just had a quarter where FCF was over $500 million (you read that right), I feel ffar from defeated. On the other hand, I am actually not that worried.
 

Ricochet

Diamond Member
Oct 31, 1999
6,406
20
81
^It fell even more today. I see plenty more chances of buying on the low. Just how far are you willing to go with this. One of the hardest decision a man can make is eat his losses and walk away.

An important lesson is not to fall in love with any one stock. We already witnessed one member's decent down that sinkhole.
 
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