***Official*** 2013 Stock Market Thread

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Kntx

Platinum Member
Dec 11, 2000
2,270
0
71
Are we going to see DOW 16,000 before September?!?


Maybe in September... but not before.
 

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,868
0
71
What's amazing to me is that market feels like it is only up say 10 - 15 percent for year, but then you pull up mutual fund portfolios and look at individual stocks and there are quite a few up 30%.

Berkshire Hathaway is up 30% and no mention on tv, for example. Microsoft, too.

HPQ up almost 85%, but do believe that was being priced end of last year for outside chance of not surviving long enough to complete 5 year turnaround plan (Dell was thought to be safer and further along last year, and now tables seem turned).






Stock vs. Flow?: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/stock-dead-long-live-flow-perpetual-qe-has-arrived & http://www.zerohedge.com/news/its-l...oldman-stumbles-answer-and-changes-rules-game

(comments I've seen on tv seem to indicate crack cocaine easy money addicted financial markets fear any sort of taper (hard to tell if Bernanke backed off a bit today and said they will just stop reinvesting interest and principal from maturing securities back into qe, beyond the nominal $85 billion / mo, rather than actually tapering to $65 / billion per year that is more often talked about on tv). Seen numerous vague references to flow on tv (comments like Bernanke is an economist and doesn't understand markets (his answer that the effects of qe are dependent upon total stock of assets held on Fed's balance sheet); vs. Fed Governor Dudley, who walked back Bernanke's comments, who some talking head on tv said understands flow). Only seen a few articles about this on ZH, so really don't understand what they are talking about, but some of the taper tantrum does seem to focus on that particular issue...
 
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makken

Golden Member
Aug 28, 2004
1,476
0
71
Ouch, INTC and NOK earnings. Not off to a good start for me. Waiting on MSFT now.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
Damn... cashed out of Microsoft a few months ago when it hit $31.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
When did GOOG make it to $900? Damn...

I thought it was expensive at $650 last year when I bought a ton and sold it. Coulda made close to 50%? I am the failz -- know that from the DOW being up 15% this year and I'm still break even.
 

dr150

Diamond Member
Sep 18, 2003
6,571
24
81
When did GOOG make it to $900? Damn...

I thought it was expensive at $650 last year when I bought a ton and sold it. Coulda made close to 50%? I am the failz -- know that from the DOW being up 15% this year and I'm still break even.

Ouch.
 

brianmanahan

Lifer
Sep 2, 2006
24,303
5,732
136
I was up 7 or 8% at one point... then my preferreds took a dump and haven't recovered like the rest of the market.

Classic self-managed portfolio fail.

haha this is why i eventually just decided to buy index funds. total market + reit + small cap value
 

Centauri

Golden Member
Dec 10, 2002
1,655
51
91
Anybody have any suggestions for a good dividend stock? I've been watching NLY forever, but there seems to be a lot of uncertainty around it at the moment so I've fallen back to considering TOT.
 

makken

Golden Member
Aug 28, 2004
1,476
0
71
STX just took a dump on Q4 results, though it looks like they meet expectations. I guess the yoy numbers has everyone scared.

What do you guys think about it? I'm considering going long. Every short I've talked to claims that HDDs are dead BC of SSDs and "the cloud." But I've never gotten a good answer to why they don't believe that cloud storage is a great opportunity for Seagate to sell more enterprise level drives.
 
Sep 29, 2004
18,665
67
91
Anybody have any suggestions for a good dividend stock? I've been watching NLY forever, but there seems to be a lot of uncertainty around it at the moment so I've fallen back to considering TOT.

JNJ 6 months ago.

I have a hard time finding anything worth investing in today. it's almost time to start looking into bonds.
 

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,868
0
71
Commentary is a bit dated (June 30, 2013, when S & P 500 was still in low 1600 range), but Bill Nygren is still worth reading: https://www.oakmark.com/Oakmark/web/me.get?WEB.websections.show&OAKMARK_1062 (Jeremy Siegel recently said he thought markets had successfully digested interest rates in the 2.5% - 2.75% range now (10 year Treasury), but if we were to break definitively and sustainably to say 3% - 3.25%, market would need more time to adjust to the new "new normal" http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000185239).


I would guess that pockets of remaining relative value, for longer term investor, not short term trader, are now in international markets (Europe may be bottoming as some of their economies appear to be coming out of recession now), if you have long-term time horizon (5 years plus) and can stomach a bit of enhanced volatility: e. g. http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=LLINX&region=USA&culture=en-us (just because a company happens to be located in a particular country doesn't mean that most of it's business is in that country. Some of these companies are also part of national stock market indexes, so they can get pulled down (unjustly?) when fear of the demise of the Euro or Euro-Zone crops up yet again)







(After presidential election last year, and going into year end and The Fiscal Cliff, there was apparently a mini fire sale in stock market, but all of those pockets of value have apparently been arbitraged away now)
 
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KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,401
386
126
Anybody have any suggestions for a good dividend stock? I've been watching NLY forever, but there seems to be a lot of uncertainty around it at the moment so I've fallen back to considering TOT.

NLY is a REIT and REITs still have more falling to do as interest rates rise.
I like TOT and have been in it many times. Buy at 46 - 48 and sell at 51 - 53. Done that many times.
 

KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,401
386
126
Anyone think Michael DELL will finally get his bid approved on Aug 2? The company is selling almost a dollar below the buyout offer so it could be easy money if it weren't so wishy-washy. I think most shareholders are tired of the offers and the difficulties of the company and would like to just be rid of it. Unfortunately its the big institutions that are holding it back. I think eventually someone will buy this company.
 

glenn1

Lifer
Sep 6, 2000
25,383
1,013
126
Anybody have any suggestions for a good dividend stock? I've been watching NLY forever, but there seems to be a lot of uncertainty around it at the moment so I've fallen back to considering TOT.

Just bought some NLY and TWO myself a couple weeks ago. Both are at 5-year lows so I think your risk is relatively minimal right now, but if you're concerned you could scale into a position. I'll probably do the same and add to my stake over time just in case one of them shits the bed with a bad earnings annoucement or flash-crash type panic sellers.

Depending on what your timeframe is, I could recommend quite a few other dividend paying stocks. Some of my favorites like MLAB, SXI, ANDE, and VSEC are cruising at or near their 52-week highs right now, but there's lots of other options that are reasonably valued right now. For example, I initiated a position in IAG a week or so ago, it's bounced off its low but is still fairly beaten down. TEVA is still a decent buy at current prices.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
Need another correction. I cashed out 50% -- made sense since my stocks were mostly dividend payers and I was up more than two quarters worth of distributions.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,847
5,457
136
Need another correction. I cashed out 50% -- made sense since my stocks were mostly dividend payers and I was up more than two quarters worth of distributions.

I guess you could call it a "correction", but the next window for the crash looks like this fall. That's when they are going to have to do something about the debt ceiling again. Sounds like the WH wants to raise the limit, and not have another fight over it lest the public realize that they have no intention of paying the debt (so whoever is buying this debt is going to get screwed over eventually). Detroit should have been the warning sign to get out of Municipal Bonds now, and perhaps we're headed that way on treasuries as well. I don't know how it's going to be resolved, but you can imagine Wall Street isn't going to like it.
 

Kwatt

Golden Member
Jan 3, 2000
1,602
12
81
Snip I guess you could call it a "correction", but the next window for the crash looks like this fall.Snip

That is how I am seeing it also. By mid June I was ~90% cash. Now I am about ~60%. ~40% is in gold, silver, palladium, oil, and utility. And the miners and producers.

I plan on staying that way until Dec. or Jan.

If I am wrong I will miss some. If I am right I'll make some. In the meantime I'll sleep well...


.
 

Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
no demand from people who want to follow his advice and lose all their money.

*snap*

LOL - still ragging on me zimu?

I think you were beaten with a stick by a lot of ATOT members in the last thread. Everyone knows by now my investing method is unconventional. It is NOT a buy and hold, cruise and smooze strategy. There's a higher risk involved, and yes, there's time when it works against you. I had extremely profitable years which is why I gained a big following, and there are some years that were pretty bad (ex. 2011).

I still stalk here and then, but I've been busy traveling for work projects. If you think it's because of the six-figure loss from a couple years back, you are far off my friend.

Full disclosure, my active portfolio is below:

 
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makken

Golden Member
Aug 28, 2004
1,476
0
71
Decided to jump into SGLB after I found out they were working with GE and Boeing. Big mistake.
 
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