Official 2014 Fantasy Football Discussion Thread

[KeithTalent]

The problem I have with IDP is that some of the metrics for player scoring is left up to the interpretation of people taking the stats in the NFL. It's pretty clear who is getting yards and what not on offense.

Good point.

Another league I'm in does it. Not really a fan of it...but whatever. Worse thing is that it's just another thing to consider with bye weeks and it's one more position you have to burn waiver wire priority on. Kind of annoying now that I really think about it.

That being said, here's my team I picked in a 12 man league, non PPR. I was in the 10th spot and all major RB's and WR's were off the board by then. Ended up going the Jimmy Graham route. It's a weird team but I sort of like it.

https://hen6qa.dm2302.livefilestore...-_XgpdAo8tnGaelvEzST4qwJkxUlH0/idp.jpg?psid=1

Team looks decent; I'm picking 8th (worst freaking spot) in the big league and Graham is always there when I pick, but I feel like I would be scared to take him. Your team turned out pretty well.

I think you're right about the defensive guys though; could just make all of the weekly transactions annoying. I'll have to try a free IDP league first.

KT

 

[slayer202]

I have a feeling Graham will be gone by #8 ^

 

[KeithTalent]

I have a feeling Graham will be gone by #8 ^

Probably true. Fine by me though; can't really imagine taking him there.

KT

 

[Kev]

I have the 6th pick in non-ppr keeper league and I have a feeling it will come down to Graham or Megatron and I'm leaning towards Graham.

 

[Imported]

I have a feeling Graham will be gone by #8 ^

I can't even think who will be there at 9.. I need to do a few more mock snake drafts. I have a feeling KT and I will be sniping each other's picks the whole time.

 

[vi edit]

I can't even think who will be there at 9.. I need to do a few more mock snake drafts. I have a feeling KT and I will be sniping each other's picks the whole time.

That's part of the reason why I'm looking to move into the 12 spot and just overall give up on looking at mock drafts. Every single draft is different and a living thing of it's own free will. I'll take my back to back picks and go grab a beer for the next 24 picks until it makes my way back. Grab the two guys I need and walk away again.



I can only take so many knuckelheads on sports lines calling in and saying they are planning to take X player in their first pick and Y player in their 2nd. You can't do that. You have no idea what is going to be available to you unless you are absolutely the first pick in the draft. That's it. Everything else is wait, hope, and react if needed.

 

[shocksyde]

Hey all! Let's do this thing.

PPR league

RB.........McCoy
RB.........Bernard
WR........T.Y.Hilton
WR........Randall Cobb
WR/RB...Cecil Shorts

BN.........Julian Edelman
BN.........Knowshon Moreno
BN.........Rueben Randle

See any glaringly obvious changes I should make?

 

[dougp]

I'd start Edelman over Shorts, as Edelman is a known commodity vs. Shorts who isn't.

 

[SP33Demon]

Hey all! Let's do this thing.

PPR league

RB.........McCoy
RB.........Bernard
WR........T.Y.Hilton
WR........Randall Cobb
WR/RB...Cecil Shorts

BN.........Julian Edelman
BN.........Knowshon Moreno
BN.........Rueben Randle

See any glaringly obvious changes I should make?

Only 3 bench spots? Not a fan of any Indy receivers, too many mouths to feed. The Patriots as well - assuming health is good - which it won't be so Edelman was a good pick. Moreno, not in love with him for PPR and that new offense + young OLine but he would suffice for a single week backup. Shorts, meh. Randle may actually turn out to be better than Shorts this year.

 

[KeithTalent]

I can't even think who will be there at 9.. I need to do a few more mock snake drafts. I have a feeling KT and I will be sniping each other's picks the whole time.

Yeah, this is going to suck!

KT

 

[shocksyde]

Only 3 bench spots? Not a fan of any Indy receivers, too many mouths to feed. The Patriots as well - assuming health is good - which it won't be so Edelman was a good pick. Moreno, not in love with him for PPR and that new offense + young OLine but he would suffice for a single week backup. Shorts, meh. Randle may actually turn out to be better than Shorts this year.

I have more than 3 bench players but the ones listed are the only relevant players to the discussion.

Thanks all for the comments!

 

[dougp]

Can't decide who to put in my flex, currently I have Ben Tate there but he's playing Pittsburgh, so that worries me.

I have:
Torrey Smith vs. Cin
Trent Richardson vs. Den (LOL)
Reggie Wayne vs. Den
Heath Miller vs. Cle
Andre Hawkins @ Pit
James Jones @ NYJ

Part of me thinks Torrey Smith is the safe play. Thoughts?

 

[brainhulk]

Can't decide who to put in my flex, currently I have Ben Tate there but he's playing Pittsburgh, so that worries me.

I have:
Torrey Smith vs. Cin
Trent Richardson vs. Den (LOL)
Reggie Wayne vs. Den
Heath Miller vs. Cle
Andre Hawkins @ Pit
James Jones @ NYJ

Part of me thinks Torrey Smith is the safe play. Thoughts?

I would prob play reggie wayne.

 

[MetalMat]

Can't decide who to put in my flex, currently I have Ben Tate there but he's playing Pittsburgh, so that worries me.

I have:
Torrey Smith vs. Cin
Trent Richardson vs. Den (LOL)
Reggie Wayne vs. Den
Heath Miller vs. Cle
Andre Hawkins @ Pit
James Jones @ NYJ

Part of me thinks Torrey Smith is the safe play. Thoughts?

I would just roll with Ben Tate

 

[-slash-]

Can't decide who to put in my flex, currently I have Ben Tate there but he's playing Pittsburgh, so that worries me.

I have:
Torrey Smith vs. Cin
Trent Richardson vs. Den (LOL)
Reggie Wayne vs. Den
Heath Miller vs. Cle
Andre Hawkins @ Pit
James Jones @ NYJ

Part of me thinks Torrey Smith is the safe play. Thoughts?

Ben Tates a solid back and I feel the Browns will probably lean on him if they cant get the passing game up and going. Andrew Hawkins was a sleeper for me in 2012 as a decent #3. With Josh Gordon out he will be a good play this year, just not too sure against the Steelers. Out of that group I;d either stick with Tate or play Smith. Wayne against Denvers D worries me, Heath Miller is an OK tight end, but most of that list will put up more points than him in a flex spot.

 

[glenn1]

I can't even think who will be there at 9.. I need to do a few more mock snake drafts. I have a feeling KT and I will be sniping each other's picks the whole time.

Yeah, this is going to suck!

KT

I'm #7 so I can snipe you both. At least in the odd numbered rounds.

 

[SP33Demon]

Can't decide who to put in my flex, currently I have Ben Tate there but he's playing Pittsburgh, so that worries me.

I have:
Torrey Smith vs. Cin
Trent Richardson vs. Den (LOL)
Reggie Wayne vs. Den
Heath Miller vs. Cle
Andre Hawkins @ Pit
James Jones @ NYJ

Part of me thinks Torrey Smith is the safe play. Thoughts?

Torrey Smith or Wayne or Jones or Tate. Although some caveats here. Torrey Smith didn't do much against Cincy last year posting 5-46-1 on 14 targets and 3-27-0 on 6 targets giving up 2 INTs. Rival Cincy seems to play him really tough so I probably won't start him this week (I'm opting for Decker vs OAK instead, he usually owns them).

Wayne (or Hilton?) could be shadowed by Talib who is 100% healed. Whether Talib performs up to par with last year's shutdown game vs Jimmy Graham remains to be seen (Talib hasn't had a great preseason, -3.2 over 32 snaps), but you should still take that into account with a Wayne decision.

No doubt the Colts are a pass-happy team and locking down veteran Reggie Wayne as well as star T.Y. Hilton will be top priorities for the Broncos’ revamped secondary. Aqib Talib will likely be covering Hilton, which sets up for a big-time battle on the outside. Hilton enjoyed his first 1,000-yard receiving season with five scores in 2013.

http://denver.cbslocal.com/2014/09/...-tough-test-for-denver-broncos-season-opener/
If Talib has TY Hilton duty, then Wayne would be a good play.

Jones will go up against a Jets secondary that finished 4th from last in 2013. However, the Jets posted the 2nd best 2014 preseason Pass Coverage grades of all teams, more specifically Darrin Walls(DB), Calvin Pryor(DB), Demario Davis(LB), Dee Milliner(DB), and David Harris(LB). This is significant because all four minus first round rookie Pryor were below average last year, so they could be a more improved unit than people think. Either way, Oakland is going to have to throw because of the NYJ beastly Run D (that hasn't changed from last year) anchored by the scary trio of Harrison/Richardson/Ellis. That means Jones will get opportunities; how well the NYJ secondary has improved is the big question.

Quite honestly, Ben Tate may be your best option. There is talk that he will be a 3 down back this year (since Terrance West sucked in preseason), the Cleveland line has allegedly improved, and Pitt had an abysmal Run D last year (8th worst).

The Steelers defense used to be built around stopping the run. Forcing teams to beat them by putting the ball in the air is something not seen in Pittsburgh for years now. Nowadays, teams have a green light to run all over the Steelers' defense, especially in the two-down nickel package, and that could be the biggest cause of uncertainty surrounding the defense.

http://www.behindthesteelcurtain.co...tainty-surrounds-steelers-heading-into-week-1

All in all I like Wayne or Tate.

 

[slayer202]

hahaha I really do not miss sp33demon "analysis" at all

 

[vi edit]

hahaha I really do not miss sp33demon "analysis" at all

We should have some kind of W/L tally in our signatures to give us validation of our opinions.



<--- Three time 3rd place ATOT champion

 

[SP33Demon]

We should have some kind of W/L tally in our signatures to give us validation of our opinions.



<--- Three time 3rd place ATOT champion

Well, let's just say that I was stuck with autodrafted Ray Rice, Trent Richardson, and weapon-less Matt Ryan and still won 6 games in a 12 team league by pulling Knowshon off the WW + streaming QBs and defenses. Not for the faint of heart though.

 

[vi edit]

Well, let's just say that I was stuck with autodrafted Ray Rice, Trent Richardson, and weapon-less Matt Ryan and still won 6 games in a 12 team league by pulling Knowshon off the WW + streaming QBs and defenses. Not for the faint of heart though.

You can analyze and overthink until you are blue in the face. It's still largely a game of luck and matchups. I'm the text book example of that. I routinely have the highest scoring overall points in a league but it never fails that I just get punked on a weekly basis by the highest scoring teams that week. I think that happened 6 or 7 weeks last year to me.

Fantasy football is about 25% skill/knowledge, 25% management and the rest is pure dumb luck.

 

[slayer202]

Well, PFF lists skill/knowledge at 27.381% while management is at 28.182%, so the combined 55.563% actually outweighs the pure dumb luck factor

 

[SP33Demon]

You can analyze and overthink until you are blue in the face. It's still largely a game of luck and matchups. I'm the text book example of that. I routinely have the highest scoring overall points in a league but it never fails that I just get punked on a weekly basis by the highest scoring teams that week. I think that happened 6 or 7 weeks last year to me.

Fantasy football is about 25% skill/knowledge, 25% management and the rest is pure dumb luck.

Well if you include management as setting your alarm for 3:30am to snag a FA off the WW then sure. You snooze you lose, although a lot of other FF players would say that's a bit nuts. Also, I'd say a good chunk has to do with how well you drafted + injuries. I made sure I drafted well this year, which includes adequate bye week help, so I don't have to be tortured at 3:30am again. Just hoping the angel of injuries passes over my players and I'm set. Otherwise, I'll make the proper adjustments.

 

[Imported]

I hate the 3:30AM waiver opening time. Screws the West Coast. Prefer the 10AM ones in a couple leagues I'm in.

 

[thestrangebrew1]

I'd try my luck with Rivers. Arizona has a much weakened D. From PFF:
1. Missing Pieces on D
Daryl Washington is suspended for the entire year (and, in fact, his career might be over), leaving a significant hole in the middle of the Cardinals’ defense. His athleticism (19 total pressures in 2013, good enough for a team-high PRP of 11.5) will be hard to replace. This only amplified losing fellow ILB Karlos Dansby (who had a solid 10.8 Run Stop Percentage and 11.0 Tackling Efficiency) to Cleveland in free agency, coming off a career year as the leader in the middle of the defense. Adding insult to injury, defensive end Darnell Dockett tore his ACL in training camp, and while his production had slipped, his leadership will also be missed on a defense now suddenly without three veteran pieces from last year.
2. Edge Pass Rushing
Outside of Abraham, they don't have an effective pass rusher. Abraham also has a DUI hearing on Oct 10th (although that doesn't affect your game).

So aside from those, Tyrann Mathieu has also been nursing a sore knee. This should give the Chargers a slight advantage vs the depleted Cards.

Thanks I read that last night. It's hard benching Rodgers wk 1 though lol. I guess with Seattle's D, it might be a better move to go with Rivers this wk and hope Seattle's D lights Rodgers up to make up any potential lost points.