***Official*** 2014 Stock Market Thread

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KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,402
386
126
let me see if I understand stock dilution:

you buy 100 shares at $10/sh = $1000.
there's 1M shares outstanding.

the next week the company floods the market by releasing another 1M shares.
Shares are now worth $5/sh?

You just lost $500 of value?!

Not necessarily. Remember for every seller there must be a buyer. It all depends on what the buyer wants to pay and what the seller wants to sell at. It also depends on if these new shares are from a split or new equity.

If this is a 2:1 split then yes the listing company will half the price immediately. You won't lose value; however, since you doubled your shares.

If this is new equity, then the price may not reach half. Usually if you double the shares, you half the EPS and double the PE ratio. This means sellers are likely to want to get rid of their shares since earnings have been halfed and the current price looks way overvalued. Buyers won't buy unless the stock reaches a level of EPS that they are comfortable with. Most likely they won't buy until it reaches $5/share but the market may keep it higher because the company is in demand and people wanted shares to begin with, there just weren't enough to go around.
 
Sep 29, 2004
18,656
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Jedi,

Here is the thing people need to do. Stock looking at share price. It's a useless metric until you think you want to actually buy stock.

Look at market cap. Divide by shares outstanding and that's share price.

share price = market cap / shares outstanding

So, increase the share count (issue more shares to raise cash or do a stock split or have convertible debt converted to stock) and nothing else changes ..... see the formula above.
 

Michael

Elite member
Nov 19, 1999
5,435
234
106
Jedi - dilution is increasing the share count. Generally, stock splits are not considered to be diluting the stock. It makes no difference in your total value. You go from 1 share at 10 to 2 at $5. Still have $10 worth of stock. Eps (all other things being equal) halves but PE stays constant.

If the company in your example issues 100% more shares (really unlikely in anything but a split)cyber they are getting paid for it. Assuming there is no discount from the issuance, the company gets the money for the shares. If they did a 100% issue, then people will probably only get $5 each. Your shares are down but the company gets all that cash to invest too. But what if the company buys another by issuing all those shares and buys another company the delivers $12 a share in value and only $10 a share is paid. Lots of share issue but your stock will probably go up.

So if you see that the company is doing an offering (shares or convertible bonds) that is dilutive but use of proceeds is very important.

Michael
 

sm625

Diamond Member
May 6, 2011
8,172
137
106
Right now is when people start looking at the market and wondering if the correction is over, is it time to buy the dip, etc etc. I've seen nothing bullish from my indicator in the last 30 days. Since Sept 8th when I got my most dire readings, the broad US indexes have been basically flat. DOW up a bit, S&P 500 down less than 2%. But there has been a huge spike in volatility. I remain extremely bearish.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,573
2,248
126
Last edited:
Sep 29, 2004
18,656
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Right now is when people start looking at the market and wondering if the correction is over, is it time to buy the dip, etc etc. I've seen nothing bullish from my indicator in the last 30 days. Since Sept 8th when I got my most dire readings, the broad US indexes have been basically flat. DOW up a bit, S&P 500 down less than 2%. But there has been a huge spike in volatility. I remain extremely bearish.

This is when I worry that he world economy is in as much trouble as is hinted. The US economy is OK but a global slowdown would impact the US also.
 

sm625

Diamond Member
May 6, 2011
8,172
137
106
Wow we've had five two percent swings in 7 trading days. That hasnt happened since after the 2011 correction, in august and september. The market gyrated wildly for a couple months after that sharp selloff. The kicker here is that we have had no sharp selloff, even though the market is trading as if we've already sold off down to around 1850 on the S&P, or 16000 on the DOW. Usually you get this kind of volatility after the market falls off a mini-cliff, as in 2011. But that cliff / waterfall moment hasnt really happened yet. (Earlier today the market was only 2.5% off its all time highs.) Kind of a scary thought. I suggest yall pull up a chart of 2007 and note the types of swings that happened that years as the market put in its top. Imagine a drop all the way to 1600 on the S&P, followed by a test of 2000, all in the space of a few months! That could easily happen.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,828
184
106
Meh.. DOW down 300 points right now, but it went down 200+ a few days ago, then up 200+ the next.
 

KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,402
386
126
Is this market downtrend all because of Ebola fears?

The way I see it is a slowing Europe and China are causing a rising dollar and lower oil prices. This is causing oil stocks to fall as lower oil means lower prices, and multinationals to fall because they will see lower earnings due to foriegn exchange rates. This is in turn causing panic in investors, particularly people on margin who are reducing their exposure to stocks.

I would sell some, but I have nowhere to go. Sitting in a bank account I make nothing. If I sold now I wouldn't know when to get back in because of all the gyrations.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,828
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The way I see it is a slowing Europe and China are causing a rising dollar and lower oil prices. This is causing oil stocks to fall as lower oil means lower prices, and multinationals to fall because they will see lower earnings due to foriegn exchange rates. This is in turn causing panic in investors, particularly people on margin who are reducing their exposure to stocks.

I haven't been paying attention to big oil stocks like Exxon and Chevron, but when the ISIS thing and Syria thing started, oil sands popped about 20%. For example, COS went from ~$20 earlier in the year to $24 over the summer. It's dropped to about the 52 week low now.

Seems like a big chunk of that gain was speculation -- similar thing happened during the "Arab Spring". Glut of oil and slowing European economy seem to be pushing it even lower.
 
Sep 29, 2004
18,656
67
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The way I see it is a slowing Europe and China are causing a rising dollar and lower oil prices. This is causing oil stocks to fall as lower oil means lower prices, and multinationals to fall because they will see lower earnings due to foriegn exchange rates. This is in turn causing panic in investors, particularly people on margin who are reducing their exposure to stocks.

I would sell some, but I have nowhere to go. Sitting in a bank account I make nothing. If I sold now I wouldn't know when to get back in because of all the gyrations.

Makes sense.

I'm about to fund 2 Roth-IRAs. Some money is probably going into SD.
 

BoT

Senior member
May 18, 2010
365
0
86
www.codisha.com
European crude consumption is also reduced and Russia and China might get a big leg up from Canada. The Canadian president is considering to scrap the Keystone pipeline and rather build one going east. To ship the Oil further east.
 
Jan 25, 2011
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European crude consumption is also reduced and Russia and China might get a big leg up from Canada. The Canadian president is considering to scrap the Keystone pipeline and rather build one going east. To ship the Oil further east.

 
Sep 29, 2004
18,656
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XCO buyout rumor. Doubt any buyout would make my call options worth anything though. Hoping to see the stock price bounce though.

Actually, some are in the money calls so I'll make out there but my "gamble" probably won't pay off. These are options from months ago.
 

sm625

Diamond Member
May 6, 2011
8,172
137
106
Ho ho ho, look at that. Intel is crashing, 3 weeks after my crash call.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,828
184
106
Catching a falling knife is biting me in the ass... who would have thought?
 

Attic

Diamond Member
Jan 9, 2010
4,282
2
76
Much easier to sell at the wrong time rather than buy at the wrong time in market's like this IME.
 
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