***Official*** 2014 Stock Market Thread

[JEDI]

Catching a falling knife is biting me in the ass... who would have thought?

hm.. which method is better?

- dollar cost averaging down every 10%.
- or sell when it goes down -10%, and buy back when the stock goes down another -10%?

 

[Imp]

I've been averaging down over the past week... every day.

It's making no sense right now because the stock, COS, is now almost as cheap as it was during the worst part of 2009 -- West Texas was ~$40 then, it's around $85 now? Whatever. Unless it goes bankrupt, I'm getting a ~7.5% dividend now.

 

[brianmanahan]

hm.. which method is better?

- dollar cost averaging down every 10%.
- or sell when it goes down -10%, and buy back when the stock goes down another -10%?

buying back would definitely be better

provided you can predict the future

 

[JTsyo]

hm.. which method is better?

- dollar cost averaging down every 10%.
- or sell when it goes down -10%, and buy back when the stock goes down another -10%?

Well if you know the stock is going to drop 20%, then sell it and short it.

Cost averaging is safer in case the stocks jumps back up. Selling it and buying it back gets better results. It's risk vs payoff situation.

 

[Imp]

Well if you know the stock is going to drop 20%, then sell it and short it.

Cost averaging is safer in case the stocks jumps back up. Selling it and buying it back gets better results. It's risk vs payoff situation.

Trying to sell and buy back... I tried do ONLY do that for over a year. Long story short, I cashed out 5-10% gains and missed out more than a few 100% to 200% gains -- I'm looking at you VISA, AAPL, and GOOG.

We need crystal balls.

 

[JEDI]

Trying to sell and buy back... I tried do ONLY do that for over a year. Long story short, I cashed out 5-10% gains and missed out more than a few 100% to 200% gains -- I'm looking at you VISA, AAPL, and GOOG.

We need crystal balls.

thx.. dollar cost avg down it is then

 

[FelixDeCat]

you want a crystal ball?

heres one

The selling will continue on Monday until a capitulation is reached

It MAY continue in the AM on Tuesday UNLESS a big name comes out with good earnings

OR engergy (oil price per barrel) rebounds OR big shorts start to cover causing a small bounce Tuesday PM trading.

I am buying CSIQ on Monday or Tuesday, 20s price range, sell in 30s.

 

[JEDI]

you want a crystal ball?

heres one

The selling will continue on Monday until a capitulation is reached

It MAY continue in the AM on Tuesday UNLESS a big name comes out with good earnings

OR engergy (oil price per barrel) rebounds OR big shorts start to cover causing a small bounce Tuesday PM trading.

I am buying CSIQ on Monday or Tuesday, 20s price range, sell in 30s.

interesting.. why do u think the bleed to continue on Mon?

and why csiq (Canadian Solar) and not, say, Guggenheim Solar (TAN)?

 

[Michael]

TAN is an index fund and probably will not swing as much as an individual stock.

Michael

 

[JEDI]

How do you determine when to sell your speculative stocks?

for me, it's a simple formula:
when it drops 5% from the high since I bought it.

unfortunately, 5% doesn't seem low enuf.
ie: bought at $2, went up to 2.85, and sold when it went down to $2.70. but it only dropped to 2.65 then sky rocketed to $4


so when do you sell?

 

[Imp]

I look for a flat-line/plateau on an ascent and see where the previous peaks were. Think this is half-assed technical analysis. Doesn't work well at all because I've missed tons of prolonged gains.

 

[JTsyo]

How do you determine when to sell your speculative stocks?

for me, it's a simple formula:
when it drops 5% from the high since I bought it.

unfortunately, 5% doesn't seem low enuf.
ie: bought at $2, went up to 2.85, and sold when it went down to $2.70. but it only dropped to 2.65 then sky rocketed to $4


so when do you sell?

What you're doing is a trailing stop. Check this guide for different techniques.

 

[FelixDeCat]

interesting.. why do u think the bleed to continue on Mon?

and why csiq (Canadian Solar) and not, say, Guggenheim Solar (TAN)?

Right now the sellers are in charge and experienced buyers know you don't buy unless a temporary bottom is reached (stabilization) or thorough rout happens (capitulation).

Another thing to think about... the avg stock market return is 10% per year. Last year the markets returned about 30%. Taking that into account and using the average as a rule we are coming up on 15% for this year and last (30%/2). The S&P stood at 1,848.36 12/31/13, crossed 2,000 this year and now sits at 1900 and change.

Using the above logic (and this is just reasonably theoretical on my part) We could see another 2-5% correction soon (followed by a snap back ralley, followed by another selloff).

 

[sm625]

I really hope nobody on here is buying CSIQ right now.

 

[Imp]

Woho... I thought today was an off day for the US of A market too. Nope. Crashy crashy continues. Glad my preferreds are still doing okay. My resource stocks are eeeeefffffffffffffffffffffffeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeed. Got in too early expecting a minor dip.

 

[jpiniero]

I guess the "good news" is that the malaise and the volatility will probably scare the Fed off from raising rates any time soon. For the real correction to happen you would need a trigger though.

 

[Imp]

I guess the "good news" is that the malaise and the volatility will probably scare the Fed off from raising rates any time soon. For the real correction to happen you would need a trigger though.

Wish I was more aware of the world back in 2007, but my head was buried in books for college. If I was, I'd be able to recognize what the start of a meltdown looks like.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

HAHAHAHA,

Some of my stocks actually went up today.

 

[Imp]

Woho... This is stupid. I'm actually about breaking even because of the exchange rate. Effing resource stocks are going down, but because of the CAD-US exchange rate, the losses are being compensated.

Seriously. Oil stocks are hemorrhaging money.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Woho... This is stupid. I'm actually about breaking even because of the exchange rate. Effing resource stocks are going down, but because of the CAD-US exchange rate, the losses are being compensated.

Seriously. Oil stocks are hemorrhaging money.

Its probably going to get even worse. OPEC will not raise prices to spite themselves and American shale drillers are working against each other in a race to the bottom.

They are all planning to drown out the weak hands through bankruptcy (who cannot operate on lower than "the cost to obtain/produce/sell" prices). They would rather sell at a loss if needed to do this. I think Im going to avoid all solars after all since they go down with all other energy stocks.

I think.

 

[Imp]

Its probably going to get even worse. OPEC will not raise prices to spite themselves and American shale drillers are work against each other in a race to the bottom.

They are all planning to drown out the weak hands through bankruptcy (who cannot operate on lower than "the cost to obtain/produce/sell" prices). They would rather sell at a loss if need be to do this. I think Im going to avoid all solars after all since they go down with all other energy stocks.

I think.

Big thing is how this will affect the Canadian housing bubble. Is this where it starts... Rest of the country isn't doing that well.

 

[KB]

2 - 5% off sale in stocks. Wow, just an utter meltdown at the opening. Anyone who was on the sidelines for so long may consider getting in pretty soon. This has definately spooked investors, but I don't think it will last a long time. Investors will come to their senses and see 4+% yield in stocks vs 2% yield in treasuries vs < .5% in savings and they will have no choice but to come back to stocks. I am putting my side holdings in sometime this week.

 

[Engineer]

you want a crystal ball?

heres one

The selling will continue on Monday until a capitulation is reached

It MAY continue in the AM on Tuesday UNLESS a big name comes out with good earnings

OR engergy (oil price per barrel) rebounds OR big shorts start to cover causing a small bounce Tuesday PM trading.

I am buying CSIQ on Monday or Tuesday, 20s price range, sell in 30s.

Are we there yet? http://finance.yahoo.com/news/weak-us-data-spur-fears-133955646.html

Story title....

Capitulation? Market drops on weak data, snaps back

Market dropped 370 at open. Ouch.

 

[Imp]

Wow... This is not stopping.

I should have stuck with Plan A and just turned all my money from CAD to US. I'd be up and relatively stable right now. Too bad my effing brokerage makes it a bitch to exchange currency -- new one I signed up for is way better in that respect, completely terribad in every other.

I have a bit on the side, but I'm going to wait for it to finally stops hemorrhaging, pop up, then back down before touching it.

Edit: Just bothered to check my accounts. Woho, this is really getting ugly. Cashed out one preferred stock position. It's going to be my "rescue" fund.

If anyone wants to look at a stock with an 8.21% yield (will probably get cut), check out COS. Price is just around where it was when the market bottomed in 2009 (Yahoo says day low was $16.65 on January 29, 2009 and hit day low $16.75 on January 23, 2009) when oil was at ~$35/barrel. You're welcome to tell me how that makes any sense.

 

[MustISO]

Dow was down 400+ a few minutes ago, now at 383. I pulled a lot of money out a few weeks ago figuring it was time for a drop. Now to pick the right time to get back in.