***Official*** 2014 Stock Market Thread

[MomentsofSanity]

I'm starting to see a lot of buyers jumping in who have been idle a while the last hour. Be interesting to see if this continues today.

 

[dr150]

Cramer said that Walking Dead has people thinking of Ebola and thus sell-off (he wasn't tongue n' cheek either). WTF is Cramer saying!? LOL. He better clarify himself later on his show.

Ya. Like moms and pops across this great land sold their VOO b/c of a TV show and Ebola.

....This sell package is primarily Germany, Greece, Ebola and MARGIN CALLS causing today's oversold stink.

The opening is a collusion of Hedge Funds and banks pressing the sell button all at once.

Now buyers (i.e. institutions) are stepping up again this hour due to the current "sale".

 

[MomentsofSanity]

Hope no one was holding NFLX after the close.

 

[Gunslinger08]

Hope no one was holding NFLX after the close.

I don't really understand why. News reports say it's because of HBOGO without cable announcement. That seems stupid to me - HBO and Netflix are incredibly different. HBOGO has maybe a rotating 20 movies per genre, their ongoing shows, and their back catalog of TV series. Netflix is thousands and thousands of movies and shows from every source. I don't think anyone is dropping Netflix for HBOGO.

 

[MomentsofSanity]

I don't really understand why. News reports say it's because of HBOGO without cable announcement. That seems stupid to me - HBO and Netflix are incredibly different. HBOGO has maybe a rotating 20 movies per genre, their ongoing shows, and their back catalog of TV series. Netflix is thousands and thousands of movies and shows from every source. I don't think anyone is dropping Netflix for HBOGO.

It's all about guidance. The fact that they fell short on this quarters numbers doesn't help but they cut Q4 EPS to 0.44 when the street was expecting 0.84.

 

[dr150]

It's all about guidance....

Guidance was a huge miss......980k Q3 Net Adds vs 1.33M Guidance.

Guidance going forward is also below last year's levels. Domestic subscriber numbers is being guided 480k below last year which is well below consensus. Int'l forecast is well below guidance as well.

There's also a huge disparity between net income and free cash flow....cumulative -$448M over 9 quarters or $4.40/share that has to run thru the income statement some day. Forward earnings power is $4.40 lower than what people think which is why the stock is getting hammered today.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Right now the sellers are in charge and experienced buyers know you don't buy unless a temporary bottom is reached (stabilization) or thorough rout happens (capitulation).

Another thing to think about... the avg stock market return is 10% per year. Last year the markets returned about 30%. Taking that into account and using the average as a rule we are coming up on 15% for this year and last (30%/2). The S&P stood at 1,848.36 12/31/13, crossed 2,000 this year and now sits at 1900 and change.

Using the above logic (and this is just reasonably theoretical on my part) We could see another 2-5% correction soon (followed by a snap back ralley, followed by another selloff).

Are we there yet? http://finance.yahoo.com/news/weak-us-data-spur-fears-133955646.html

Story title....


Market dropped 370 at open. Ouch.

QQQs hit 91, I sold my puts right at the open (too early, but a profit is a profit).

I dont know whats comming up next as my thesis for a 10% average the last 2 years has been met (the correction to it). We may be flat or bounce back up SOME, but right now the market's confidence has been shaken and only earnings will help restore it. NFLX crashing 25% is not going to help.

I did not buy CSIQ right now as planned as oil keeps dropping too much creating uncertainty. I may wait until solars look strong and hope to ride along with the tide.

I wish I had some $1.00 380 puts on NFLX. Each one is now worth $50 (a 50 to 1 payout).

 

[sm625]

Yeah that would be a massive payout. But I dont see anything on NFLX chart that suggests a selloff of that magnitude is/was coming. Anyone who bought such put options would have had to have been trading purely on inside info.

As far as charts that look weak goes... I have long term topping signals on half the DOW components. GE and BA look particularly bad. I'm not buying long term puts because I believe I can nail the corner on a much shorter timeframe, but if I was buying longterm puts it would be on these two stocks. Boeing put options is a smart play just as a hedge against ebola. Combine that with a secular bear market and it has huge profit potential.

 

[ghost recon88]

Wow, all my mutual and index funds have taken a huge hit. Debating if I just pull out now and put my money into a money market and wait it out. Lost almost 10% in the last month.

 

[BoT]

to late to get out now. you might as well ride out the storm. this actually is rather the time to buy. almost all mayors are down 20+ percent and they are expected to bounce back once we hit bottom.
i wish somebody would have told me about EGLE

 

[JEDI]

to late to get out now. you might as well ride out the storm. this actually is rather the time to buy. almost all mayors are down 20+ percent and they are expected to bounce back once we hit bottom.
i wish somebody would have told me about EGLE

um.. EGLE emerged from bankruptcy today with 80% ($1B) less debt.

since it was bankruptcy, shouldn't all old shares be worth $0?
so all old shareholders didn't make any $ from the .60 to $15 jump today?

 

[JEDI]

wtf Netflix at -22% today?!?!

 

[brianmanahan]

Wow, all my mutual and index funds have taken a huge hit. Debating if I just pull out now and put my money into a money market and wait it out. Lost almost 10% in the last month.

why worry about it? how long is it gonna be before you need the money, 40 years?

just keep buying

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

NFLX:
Has anyone actually looked at the balance sheets and cash flow statements?

Pay attention to:
Free Cash Flow
Long term debt
total equity

Then look at market cap. $21B? Why? Given their revs it should be a $40B market cap. But they seem to not know how to turn revenues into free cash flow.

Pro Tip: Notice how I not once mentioned earnings.

 

[ghost recon88]

why worry about it? how long is it gonna be before you need the money, 40 years?

just keep buying

Go into the money market now, buy them back when they are at a cheaper price per share? And yea, I'm 40 years out from retiring.

 

[brianmanahan]

Go into the money market now, buy them back when they are at a cheaper price per share?

if they get cheaper. maybe that will happen - they could go way below where they are at right now. but they might go back up right away.

i do see posts frequently from people who got out in 2010 to 2012 and were gonna wait for the next crash, except the next crash hasn't come yet. when they finally decided to get back in, S&P 500 prices were up anywhere from %25 to %100 of when they got out.

that is one danger of a market timing strategy. if you have a lot of knowledge and are willing to bet you know what direction things are going to go, then go for it. but just remember that if you bet wrong, it could cost you. i dont know enough to know what the heck is going to happen, so i just stick to buying (and rebalancing) only.

And yea, I'm 40 years out from retiring.

then really the amount you are saving right now matters a lot more than whatever strategy you use (barring dumb stuff like putting everything in one stock, or investing in penny stocks, etc). 40 years out, it just helps to get as much money in as possible to get compounding to start generating more meaningful amounts.

 

[Imp]

I want to plow my newly freed money in today... all of it, in case it's a major bounce back.

The reason side of my head is telling me to ease in to see how it goes.

 

[JEDI]

um.. EGLE emerged from bankruptcy today with 80% ($1B) less debt.

since it was bankruptcy, shouldn't all old shares be worth $0?
so all old shareholders didn't make any $ from the .60 to $15 jump today?

someone pls explain EGLE to me?

up 2000% yesterday.
up another 3% today.

did the shareholders pre-bankruptcy get any part of that +2000% after EGLE emerged from bankruptcy yesterday?

 

[sm625]

someone pls explain EGLE to me?

up 2000% yesterday. up another 3% today.

did the shareholders pre-bankruptcy get any part of that +2000% after EGLE emerged from bankruptcy yesterday?

lol, nope.

 

[sm625]

someone pls explain EGLE to me?

up 2000% yesterday. up another 3% today.

did the shareholders pre-bankruptcy get any part of that +2000% after EGLE emerged from bankruptcy yesterday?

lol, nope. It really should be trading under a new symbol now.

 

[FelixDeCat]

sell.

sell.

sell.

Now.

 

[JEDI]

lol, nope. It really should be trading under a new symbol now.

yeah, that's what I thought.. should be EGLE2

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Wow, all my mutual and index funds have taken a huge hit. Debating if I just pull out now and put my money into a money market and wait it out. Lost almost 10% in the last month.

Why would you do that AFTER The loss unless you were sure there was going to be more of a loss?

Honestly, it seems like a normal price correction. I kinda saw it coming. It seems to me like a simple time to buy.

 

[Imp]

Damn. I averaged down, but didn't bottom-load -- then again, it could keep going down next week.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Damn. I averaged down, but didn't bottom-load -- then again, it could keep going down next week.

I'm placing bets that it will. The market is still ridiculously volatile. Until it loses that volatility... it isn't done with the losses.